FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Fantasy Ease of Schedule 2.0: Receivers with Reception Points
David Dorey
May 15, 2012
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2011 Passing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
NE 58.4 @HOU 40.9
@GB 55.4 @SEA 40.8
DET 54.6 @DEN 40.4
@ARI 54.1 SF 40.2
NYG 52.9 @TEN 39.9
MIN 52.5 SEA 39.5
SD 52.3 TB 39.3
@CHI 51.6 WAS 39.2
@NYG 51.5 BAL 38.3
@NE 51.2 @STL 38.1
@ATL 50.8 CLE 36.9
DAL 49.9 @PIT 36.3
GB 49.4 @BAL 35.8
@TB 49.4 PHI 35.5
@MIN 47.9 HOU 35.1
IND 47.7 PIT 34.7
NO 47.6 @SD 34.6
BUF 47.6 @CLE 32.7
@OAK 47.3 KC 32.7
OAK 47.2 NYJ 31.9

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR

The Ease of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst match-ups for teams and awarding then either a good or a bad game - or just neutral.

In making this as accurate as can be using stats from the previous season, they are related to both team and venue. The reality is that many teams play much differently on the road than they do at home. What the Ease of Schedule has done is to take each NFL defense and consider them as two separate entities. One on the road and the other at home. In some cases, it did not matter - both were great for a team (or really bad). In others, it certainly did. Taking the eight home games and eight road games, each had their highest and lowest games removed to eliminate uncharacteristic extremes. Then the per game average fantasy points allowed were determined from the six remaining home and six remaining road games. From a total set of 64 possibilities (32 defenses both home and away), the best and worst 20 matchups were used.

This is the most accurate picture of defenses from last year - hands down. While regular season EOS will not split them out because of a lack of adequate sample size, the preseason EOS considered venue in addition to the defense - it makes a difference. This is more accurate than any other you will find.

This version combines both tight end and wide receivers since their combination is an accurate reflection of how defenses are preventing passing fantasy points. Taken separately is far less accurate because tight ends are de facto wideouts on a few teams and tight end results are highly skewed against those few teams that had to face Jason Witten, Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates. This version also includes one point per reception from last year's stats.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule - "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks".

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season)
  EOS Good Bad
ATL 3 5 2
SF 3 7 4
CAR 3 7 4
CHI 3 7 4
DET 3 7 4
JAC 2 6 4
HOU 2 6 4
SEA 2 6 4
IND 1 5 4
STL 1 6 5
TB 0 5 5
KC 0 5 5
MIA 0 4 4
GB 0 5 5
PHI 0 5 5
ARI 0 6 6
NO -1 6 7
TEN -1 5 6
DEN -1 6 7
WAS -2 4 6
NYJ -2 5 7
NYG -2 4 6
BUF -2 3 5
MIN -3 3 6
BAL -3 4 7
SD -4 2 6
DAL -4 4 8
CLE -4 4 8
OAK -4 3 7
CIN -4 3 7
NE -6 2 8
PIT -7 3 10
Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule)
  EOS Good Bad
SF 5 5 0
SEA 3 4 1
CAR 2 4 2
IND 2 3 1
BAL 1 2 1
CHI 1 2 1
KC 1 2 1
SD 1 1 0
WAS 1 2 1
ATL 0 1 1
BUF 0 2 2
CLE 0 2 2
DEN 0 3 3
HOU 0 1 1
MIA 0 2 2
PHI 0 3 3
TEN 0 3 3
ARI -1 2 3
DET -1 1 2
JAC -1 1 2
MIN -1 0 1
NO -1 2 3
NYG -1 1 2
NYJ -1 2 3
OAK -1 2 3
STL -1 1 2
GB -2 1 3
TB -2 1 3
CIN -3 0 3
DAL -3 1 4
NE -3 0 3
PIT -4 1 5
Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  EOS Good Bad
CHI 3 3 0
HOU 3 3 0
GB 2 2 0
STL 2 2 0
DET 2 2 0
ATL 1 1 0
KC 1 2 1
BAL 1 1 0
MIA 1 1 0
PIT 1 1 0
NYG 1 2 1
TEN 0 1 1
ARI 0 1 1
JAC 0 1 1
NYJ 0 1 1
CAR 0 1 1
CIN 0 1 1
NO 0 1 1
PHI 0 1 1
SF 0 1 1
DAL 0 1 1
OAK -1 0 1
TB -1 0 1
IND -1 0 1
SEA -1 0 1
DEN -1 1 2
SD -1 0 1
BUF -1 0 1
WAS -2 0 2
MIN -2 0 2
NE -2 0 2
CLE -3 0 3

Week - By - Week

TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI SEA @NE PHI MIA @STL BUF @MIN SF @GB bye @ATL STL @NYJ @SEA DET CHI
ATL @KC DEN @SD CAR @WAS OAK bye @PHI DAL @NO ARI @TB NO @CAR NYG @DET
BAL CIN @PHI NE CLE @KC DAL @HOU bye @CLE OAK @PIT @SD PIT @WAS DEN NYG
BUF @NYJ KC @CLE NE @SF @ARI TEN bye @HOU @NE MIA @IND JAC STL SEA @MIA
CAR @TB NO NYG @ATL SEA bye DAL @CHI @WAS DEN TB @PHI @KC ATL @SD OAK
CHI IND @GB STL @DAL @JAC bye DET CAR @TEN HOU @SF MIN SEA @MIN GB @ARI
CIN @BAL CLE @WAS @JAC MIA @CLE PIT bye DEN NYG @KC OAK @SD DAL @PHI @PIT
CLE PHI @CIN BUF @BAL @NYG CIN @IND SD BAL bye @DAL PIT @OAK KC WAS @DEN
DAL @NYG @SEA TB CHI bye @BAL @CAR NYG @ATL @PHI CLE WAS PHI @CIN PIT NO
DEN PIT @ATL HOU OAK @NE @SD bye NO @CIN @CAR SD @KC TB @OAK @BAL CLE
DET STL @SF @TEN MIN bye @PHI @CHI SEA @JAC @MIN GB HOU IND @GB @ARI ATL
GB SF CHI @SEA NO @IND @HOU @STL JAC ARI bye @DET @NYG MIN DET @CHI TEN
HOU MIA @JAC @DEN TEN @NYJ GB BAL bye BUF @CHI JAC @DET @TEN @NE IND MIN
IND @CHI MIN JAC bye GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC
JAC @MIN HOU @IND CIN CHI bye @OAK @GB DET IND @HOU TEN @BUF NYJ @MIA NE
KC ATL @BUF @NO SD BAL @TB bye OAK @SD @PIT CIN DEN CAR @CLE @OAK IND
MIA @HOU OAK NYJ @ARI @CIN STL bye @NYJ @IND TEN @BUF SEA NE @SF JAC BUF
MIN JAC @IND SF @DET TEN @WAS ARI TB @SEA DET bye @CHI @GB CHI @STL @HOU
NE @TEN ARI @BAL @BUF DEN @SEA NYJ @STL bye BUF IND @NYJ @MIA HOU SF @JAC
NO WAS @CAR KC @GB SD bye @TB @DEN PHI ATL @OAK SF @ATL @NYG TB @DAL
NYG DAL TB @CAR @PHI CLE @SF WAS @DAL PIT @CIN bye GB @WAS NO @ATL @BAL
NYJ BUF @PIT @MIA SF HOU IND @NE MIA bye @SEA @STL NE ARI @JAC @TEN SD
OAK SD @MIA PIT @DEN bye @ATL JAC @KC TB @BAL NO @CIN CLE DEN KC @CAR
PHI @CLE BAL @ARI NYG @PIT DET bye ATL @NO DAL @WAS CAR @DAL @TB CIN WAS
PIT @DEN NYJ @OAK bye PHI @TEN @CIN WAS @NYG KC BAL @CLE @BAL SD @DAL CIN
SD @OAK TEN ATL @KC @NO DEN bye @CLE KC @TB @DEN BAL CIN @PIT CAR @NYJ
SEA @ARI DAL GB @STL @CAR NE @SF @DET MIN NYJ bye @MIA @CHI ARI @BUF SF
SF @GB DET @MIN @NYJ BUF NYG SEA @ARI bye STL CHI @NO @STL MIA @NE @SEA
STL @DET WAS @CHI SEA ARI @MIA GB NE bye @SF NYJ @ARI SF @BUF MIN @TB
TB CAR @NYG @DAL WAS bye KC NO @MIN @OAK SD @CAR ATL @DEN PHI @NO STL
TEN NE @SD DET @HOU @MIN PIT @BUF IND CHI @MIA bye @JAC HOU @IND NYJ @GB
WAS @NO @STL CIN @TB ATL MIN @NYG @PIT CAR bye PHI @DAL NYG BAL @CLE @PHI


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