FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT KIT

Rodgers blew up real good in 2011, and unless your league played its title game in Week 17—when Matt Flynn replaced Rodgers and set a franchise record for TD passes—he was quite likely your MVP. The Packers still don’t have a running game to speak of, and their stable of receivers won’t miss a beat with Randall Cobb and Tori Gurley ready to step in when Donald Driver hangs it up. In other words, Rodgers should remain a dominant fantasy quarterback for the foreseeable future.

Brees may have had a slightly contentious contract situation but there is no denying what he has done since landing in New Orleans. For the last six seasons, Brees has never throw for fewer than 4388 yards or 26 touchdowns and comes off his career mark of 5476 yards and 46 scores - good enough to shatter the all-time mark for yardage and actually his second time over the 5000 yard mark. He has averaged 4732 yards and 34 touchdowns while a Saint and he just keeps getting better and better. At the age of 33, he still has several more years of high production before age should have any affect. As fate would have it, Brees is faced with one of the lighter schedules in the NFL this year which includes a trip through the AFC West. There are also plenty of reasons to assume that the Saints defense is not going to perform as well this year. That should only force Brees into more passing situations and there have been no upgrades to the rushing attack. Assuming the contract situations is resolved to his satisfaction, Brees should be in line for yet another nice season. The wins and losses may be different, but the passing stats should always remain high.

07-13-12 Update: Signed for $100 million. 5 years. No dissatisfaction here.

His holiness Tom is a lock for a great season when healthy and even a bad year for him is better than almost any other QB. He's coming off his astronomic 5239 yards season with a second best 39 passing scores during the pass-happy days of 2011. Brady is 35 and entering his 13th season so at some point he will start to decline but 2012 is not a concern since he never runs and takes fewer hits than most. What is germane is that the Patriots have one of the tougher passing schedules in the NFL this year and one that is significantly more challenging than 2011 when he delighted fans in each AFC West match-up. Until Brady shows any signs of slowing down, he has to be considered a top 3 QB who always delivers. Perhaps no QB will roll up scores like Brady and with that comes fantasy wins. One more caveat to his production - the Pats have perhaps their best backfield in many years.

Apparently all Stafford needed to do was to remain healthy for an entire season. After two seasons cut short by various ailments, Stafford exploded in 2011 with 5038 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. He went from being a marginal player with injury problems to being an elite in just one season. This schedule this year is somewhat more difficult than last year but he does return all the same offensive players to help him including the incomparable Calvin Johnson. They also added 2.22 pick WR Ryan Broyles from Oklahoma but spent their first round pick on the offensive line - another good thing. Stafford doesn't yet have the track record of the other elites - Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Manning - but he's already produced as well as any. One season doesn't mean he is past the injury problems as well but Stafford delivered huge for those who believed in him last year.

The 706 rushing yards weren’t a surprise, and while the 14 rushing scores was more than expected it wasn’t as if Newton didn’t enter the league with a track record of ground success. But blowing Peyton Manning’s rookie passing record out of the water? Didn’t see that one coming, not with the Panthers’ offensive philosophy and dearth of pass-catching talent after Steve Smith. Newton’s encore might involve fewer rushing scores—why risk your franchise QB at the stripe when you have a stable of backs like Carolina does—and his receivers didn’t receive much of an upgrade. But flip it around: that just means the offense once again flows through Newton, and as of yet the league hasn’t demonstrated the ability to cap this gusher.

(+Upside) Have to love Matt Ryan this year. He already comes off a career best mark of 4177 yards and 29 touchdowns last season and has an even better schedule for 2012. The addition of Julius Jones has allowed one more nice weapon for Ryan who still hopes to see Tony Gonzalez provide a meaningful role as well. Ryan was among the most consistent quarterbacks in 2011 with 13 games featuring 300 passing yards and/or two touchdowns. The rushing attack is likely to be slightly less effective this year with Michael Turner hitting 30 years of age and yet without any notable backup. Ryan makes for a great pick once the elite quarterbacks are taken and yet could end up out producing many of them.

Remember prior to the 2011 season when Eli had the audacity to say he considered himself among the league’s best quarterbacks? Twenty-nine TDs, 4,933 yards and a second Super Bowl ring would seem to back up that assertion. The 900-plus yard jump in Manning’s career-best passing yards, thanks in no small part to a career-high 589 attempts, also elevated Manning from fantasy plug-in to the cusp of the elite. Manning loses his QB coach to the Bucs but keeps a talented corps of receivers with Rueben Randle and Martellus Bennett stepping in for Mario Manningham and the Giants’ injured tight ends—as if Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz needed help. Even Eli would find it tough to proclaim himself the best fantasy quarterback, but there’s nothing wrong with settling for pretty doggone good.

The difference between Big Ben being a legit fantasy starter as he’s been in recent seasons and last year’s relatively pedestrian showing is a complete lack of rushing scores after at least two each of the previous six years. Everything else with Roethlisberger’s game was fine, including a career-high 513 pass attempts. Don’t bank on the rushing scores to return, but a consistent 500-plus attempts and 4,000-plus yards puts Big Ben right back in the fantasy starter mix.

Romo comes off a nice season with 4184 yards and 31 touchdowns but it just followed his odd trend. In odd- numbered years - '07, '09 and '11 - he passed for around 4200 yards and 30 touchdowns or so. But in even number years, he has been injured and fallen well short of that mark. And this is an even-numbered season. Romo will also be missing Laurent Robinson (54-858, 11 TD) but will aim to get Miles Austin back to his previous form. The schedule is nothing special and the Cowboys have almost all the same returning offensive players. But Romo will have to have his first decent season in an even-numbered year and the Cowboys could have an improved ground game if DeMarco Murray can remain healthy. Romo is worth the risk because he has been a top quarterback in three different seasons but there could be the chance you need to wait until 2013 for his trend to continue.

Rivers has been rock-solid consistent, posting a fourth consecutive season averaging 21-plus fantasy points per game. He’s done it without Vincent Jackson before, and now he’ll get to do it full-time. He will have new target Robert Meachem and a healthier Antonio Gates at his disposal, as well as emerging talents Malcom Floyd and Vincent Brown. That elite monster season isn’t likely to come, but there’s nothing wrong with confidently penciling in fringe top-5 numbers at the QB position.