FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 1
2012
DAL at NYG (WED) *IND at CHI *PHI at CLE STL at DET
ATL at KC JAC at MIN *PIT at DEN *WAS at NO
*BUF at NYJ *MIA at HOU *SEA at ARI *CIN at BAL (MON)
*UPDATED *CAR at TB *NE at TEN SF at GB *SD at OAK (MON)

Prediction: BUF 16, NYJ 20 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Steve Johnson, Dustin Keller

Players to Watch: Fred Jackson, Santonio Holmes, TIM TEBOW!

These teams both finished 6-10 on the season and yet the Jets swept the Bills 28-24 at home and 27-11 in Buffalo. The Jets have won seven of the last eight meetings and five straight currently. Preseason had the Jets unable to score a touchdown until the final game but that was just preseason and the Bills were nothing special either. Played in New York is the key to the Jets getting off to a winning start.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ ----- 10 @NE -----
2 KC ----- 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE ----- 12 @IND -----
4 NE ----- 13 JAC -----
5 @SF ----- 14 STL -----
6 @ARI ----- 15 SEA -----
7 TEN ----- 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster

Pregame Notes: The Bills started last year on a very strong note with Ryan Fitzpatrick racking up multiple touchdown games but by midseason it all took a downward turn. The passing game no longer was as effective and by several accounts defenses had figured out the Bills. It certainly looked like it with the Bills 5-2 after seven games but only 1-8 the rest of the way.

Fred Jackson had the rare breakout season at the age of 30 when he was rolling up touchdowns and 100 yard games but then he fractured his fibula in week 11. C.J. Spiller was a total bust up to that point but finished the season with four games over 100 total yards and a score in each. Now that Jackson has returned and signed a new two-year agreement at the age of 31, the plan is to form yet another committee with he and Spiller. Notable was that Spiller never was successful until Jackson was gone. In all other games, Jackson always showed up Spiller so badly that the Bills just treated him as a relief player and allowed Fred to take the workload. How that works out this year is worth seeing because Jackson was truly a great back when left alone.

Stevie Johnson started the year well but then stumbled most of the rest of season before posting some good efforts against AFC West teams that he will not face this year. Johnson has back-to-back seasons of 1000 yards. David Nelson (61-658-5) was a consistent contributor but only for around 50 yards in most games. Donald Jones also starts and has won the #2 role for now. He missed the final six games last year with a sprained ankle and only had one game of any note. Overall - not an exciting group that play in a scheme that opponents have apparently figured out. Johnson remains the only real fantasy play here.

Tight end Scott Chandler was the week one darling of 2011 when he caught two touchdowns and gained 63 yards in the season opener. Scored once in the next two games. Then became a 30 yard player with no scores in all but one remaining game. No reason for now to assume that he'll be anything more than last year.

Remember the Bills of late 2011. They are still all the same players and scheme.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 16 8 8 24 18 5
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 11 26 14 24 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF TB 10000023010 ***
The matchup is wonderful, although the sheer lack of weaponry is what Taylor needs to overcome. It looks like Jordan Matthews will not play, and Charles Clay is a few weeks away from a possible return. Tampa has given up the third-most fantasy points per game, giving up yardage at the second-highest clip (308.8/game).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF TB 8016500000 ***
Shady comes off the bye week for a meeting with the No. 15-ranked Buccaneers defense of PPR backs. This is a midrange matchup for just about every stat but receptions per game, where it ranks 12th.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, BUF TB 005600000 *
Matthews appears unlikely to play. He isn't catching passes with both hands yet and may be a few more weeks out.

Update: Matthews returned to practice in full Friday after two limited showings. He is likely to play but may not be 100 percent after recently having surgery on his thumb.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Zay Jones, BUF TB 002300000 ***
The matchup is awesome -- the best, in fact -- in fantasy, but Jones has done nothing to instill confidence that he can be a worthwhile play. Even after a bye. On a team without WRs. Kinda sad.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Tate, BUF TB 002200000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Nick O'Leary, BUF TB 004501000 **
O'Leary should be one of the top options with Charles Clay out and Jordan Matthews unlikely to go. Tampa Bay has given up virtually nothing to the position, so he'll have his work cut out, but but the silver lining is this defense has granted two TDs on just 19 catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Hauschka, BUF TB 1122 ***
All 13 extra points have been good, with the lone missed kick coming from one of the nine field goals faced. This is a routine matchup.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF ----- 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT ----- 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA ----- 12 NE -----
4 SF ----- 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster

Pregame Notes: The Jets spent the offseason doing little more than dumping veteran wide receivers and acquiring Tim Tebow so that the New York press always had a default story every day. But the offense is looking lethargic and even changing offensive coordinators to Tony Sparano has not sparked any changes. Then again, Sparano comes from a background of run-heavy attacks that use committee backfields. That is one of two problems here.

Problem one is the quarterback situation where acquiring Tebow means the fans will be constantly calling for him in every game gone bad. Mark Sanchez rarely threw for much yardage last year but he did have at least one score in almost every game. He even posted 180 yards and four scores when the Bills showed up in week 12 last year right after they had lost Fred Jackson. Tebow assumedly plays in wildcat packages but from a fantasy standpoint it is just a mess that apparently is not working well anyway.

The Jets continue to believe that Shonn Greene is the answer at running back despite his marginal success. He remained healthy all last year and still only produced 1054 rushing yards and a career best six touchdowns. The plan is to be more physical with the run game which is only more of the same as it was under Brian Schottenheimer and with the same plodding back. With LaDainian Tomlinson gone, Bilal Powell has won the #2 job and will be the third down back. His best characteristic is that he's not Shonn Greene but he's also a bit undersized for a power rushing scheme since he is just 5'10" and 204 pounds.

The new offensive scheme has done little to the passing effort other than likely de-emphasizing Dustin Keller. Santonio Holmes should be the star here if only because only second year player Jeremy Kerley and rookie Stephen Hill are also starting. Hill has a lot of promise but is raw. Holmes has just not looked good this summer even though he should be a star compared to the rest. It is a bad sign for the season because the Jets are otherwise relying on Shonn Greene to be so much more than he has ever been.

That all said, the Jets have always beat the Bills in recent years. Even with a struggling offense, the Jets can take this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 4 10 3 17 23 32
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 21 29 9 32 15 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ @MIA 0000020011 ***
Miami has given up a fair amount of yardage (247.4/game) but little else to quarterbacks. Just six TD passes allowed in five games helps make this a soundly negative matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @MIA 3003300000 *
Powell's status is unclear at this time. Check back Friday for an update.

Update: The Jets will have Powell this week against a matchup that lacks appeal. He has flex potential and is likely to share touches, perhaps three ways.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @MIA 3002200000 **
This is hardly an ideal matchup, and Forte is no better than a fringe consideration. Miami hasn't allowed much through the air (35.6 yards/game) and is one of the tougher groups on the ground (10th). PPR backs have scored one time in the last 28 catches. He was good for 16.7 PPR points in Week 9 last year vs. the Dolphins but only 3.8 in a limited Week 15 showing.

Update: Bilal Powell is not on the injury report and should have a substantial share of the touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ @MIA 200000000 ***
McGuire was barely involved last week and has a strong opponent in Miami. This is the ninth-hardest matchup in standard scoring. The Dolphins have allowed rushing TDs at a higher clip than they'd like, but it's still only good for 11th. RBs have mustered only 112 offensive yards against this defense.

Update: Bilal Powell is not on the injury report and should have a substantial share of the touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @MIA 005500000 ***
Kerley has emerged recently in his return to New York. The Dolphins are a tougher matchup than the Pats offered a week ago, and receivers have scored only three times in the last five games against them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @MIA 003400000 ***
A fringe play, Anderson has a tough matchup in all statistical markers but yardage allowed per game (153.4). Only three catches in the last five weeks have found the end zone against the Dolphins.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ @MIA 004400000 ***
On average, it takes wide receivers 19.7 catches to score against Miami, while accounting for just 11.8 grabs as a team per outing. The positive side to this matchup is WRs have hauled in an average of 154.3 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ @MIA 006401000 ***
Seferian-Jenkins was involved in a controversial touchdown reversal last week that certainly ticked off his fantasy owners. This week, finding the end zone, legitimately or otherwise, could prove difficult. The Dolphins have surrendered the third-most catches per game but only one TD every 17.5 snares (22nd).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ @MIA 2211 ***
Miami ranks as the fourth-toughest opponent for kickers to exploit. This mostly is because five of the 12 field goal attempts missed their mark. The chances have been here, even if the accuracy has not.

WEEK 1
2012
DAL at NYG (WED) IND at CHI PHI at CLE STL at DET
ATL at KC JAC at MIN PIT at DEN WAS at NO
BUF at NYJ MIA at HOU SEA at ARI CIN at BAL (MON)
  CAR at TB NE at TEN SF at GB SD at OAK (MON)

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