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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 1
2012
DAL at NYG (WED) *IND at CHI *PHI at CLE STL at DET
ATL at KC *JAC at MIN *PIT at DEN *WAS at NO
*BUF at NYJ *MIA at HOU *SEA at ARI *CIN at BAL (MON)
*UPDATED *CAR at TB *NE at TEN SF at GB *SD at OAK (MON)

Prediction: STL 13 , DET 31 (Line: DET by 8.5)

Players to Watch: Every Rams Receiver

This game alone is reason enough to load up with Lions on your fantasy team. The Lions went to the playoffs last year after posting a 10-6 record and posting the greatest passing stats in the history of the franchise. The Rams came off an encouraging 2010 season with the Offensive Rookie of the Year and brought on OC mastermind Josh McDaniels that apparently imported a scheme that only he and Brandon Lloyd understood. The Rams ended 2-14 are are currently on a seven game losing streak. They had a 1-7 record on the road. I'll take the Lions, please.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET ----- 10 @SF -----
2 WAS ----- 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI ----- 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA ----- 13 SF -----
5 ARI ----- 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA ----- 15 MIN -----
7 GB ----- 16 @TB -----
8 NE ----- 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster

Pregame Notes: The Rams cleaned house and brought in HC Jeff Fisher who will install a Tennessee-like offense with the help of OC Brian Schottenheimer. Fisher has thrown his support behind Sam Bradford who left a great rookie year to flop last season while battling a high ankle sprain. His ankle is still an issue with news that it still bothers him and may require surgery after the season. If the offensive line play does not improve, he won't make it to December anyway.

Steven Jackson is the power back that Jeff Fisher likes in his offense though Jackson is 29 years old and leads all active running backs in career touches. The question is if Jackson has one more good season in him. He has been amazingly durable in his career though and has long been a workhorse back. At times Jackson has been nearly the entirety of the offense. Fisher looked to the future when he drafted Isaiah Pead but the rookie has been slow to pick up needed skills like pass blocking. This may be Jackson's final big year. It may have happened last year. Regardless - he's been a great running back for the franchise and a paragon of durability.

Where the Rams need to sort it all out is with the receivers. For reasons hard to fathom, St. Louis has been a clearing house for wide receivers to come in, hint at potential and then get injured (usually season ending). Starting with nearly an entirely new crew of soon to be injured receivers, the Rams will start Danny Amendola back from his badly dislocated elbow from week one last year. He is joined by Steve Smith who is now two years removed from microfracture surgery on his left knee. Back in 2009, Smith did post 1220 yards on 107 catches for seven touchdowns in New York before his injury. Then there is Brandon Gibson who missed most of camp with a hamstring injury. The Rams spent two early picks to get Brian Quick and Chris Givens but neither had a good enough camp to merit a week one starting spot. This is a group that will develop as the season progresses and no spot is a lock other than Amendola. There should be good fantasy value in here someplace, but then again we thought the same thing in 2011. If they can all merely stay healthy that will be a huge help over the last two seasons.

The Rams just released Michael Hoomanawanui which is sad considering how much time sports writers and radio hosts spent learning to spell and say his name. But Lance Kendricks is expected to be a big component in the offense and OC Schottenheimer already did wonders for Dustin Keller in New York. Kendricks was a second round pick last year but only caught 28 passes. He's a sleeper sort that could break out in his second year. He had the talent when he left Wisconsin.

First week on the road for a new offense? Temper expectations but there are plenty of reasons to watch the game. The Rams are a work in progress.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 31 29 23 28 32 21
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 26 16 27 13 26 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Austin Davis, STL DAL 0000021011 ***
The Rams are still looking for their first TD pass of the season. Until they get one, look elsewhere for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Zac Stacy, STL DAL 6011100000 ***
The Cowboys are giving up almost five yards a carry, and the Rams have no passing game. You do the math.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Quick, STL DAL 007800000 ***
The Cowboys, shockingly enough, have yet to surrender a WR TD this year. The Rams, to the surprise of no one, have yet to score one. Quick is the most likely to snap that streak, but it's hardly a given.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Britt, STL DAL 001300000 ***
At his current pace, Britt should get two catches this week. You can afford to wait and see if he continues this torrid climb towards fantasy respectability.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, STL DAL 005601000 ****
Cooks is a consistent provider of adequate fantasy numbers, but he could most definitely see an uptick against a defense that's already ceded three TE TDs and 186 yards to the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL DAL 1122 ***
Legatron has six treys in two games, but he's kicking an uphill battle against a Cowboys defense that's allowed just one FG through the first two games.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL ----- 10 @MIN -----
2 @SF ----- 11 GB -----
3 @TEN ----- 12 HOU -----
4 MIN ----- 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI ----- 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI ----- 16 ATL -----
8 SEA ----- 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster

Pregame Notes: The Lions lost their playoff game in New Orleans but by all measures last season was a success the extent not seen in Detroit for many, many years. 2011 was the first winning season by the Lions since 2000 when they were 9-7. This is the first time in recent history the Lions can honestly make a goal of winning a playoff game. They are already winning season good and reach the playoffs good.

All those high annual draft picks finally came together when Matthew Stafford not only played his first season without missing a game, he became one of only four quarterbacks to ever pass for over 5000 yards. He finished with 5038 yards and 41 touchdowns with only 16 interceptions. It took three years but it was worth waiting for. The good news - the offense may be even better this year.

Calvin Johnson remains the premier wideout in the NFL and ended last season with 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns. There were only five games that he failed to score at least once. Six times he had two scores. The rookie Titus Young turned 48 catches into 607 yards and six scores with almost all of that coming in the final ten weeks. Young has continued to improve and will definitely cut into Nate Burleson's action. Young is one of the smallest wideouts in the league at 5'11 and only 174 pounds but he offers a tremendous complement to the huge and somewhat uncoverable Megatron. These three were good for 217 catches, 25 touchdowns and 3045 yards. That could actually increase. The Lions also added Ryan Broyles who is still recovering from a torn ACL that ended his standout career at Oklahoma. Broyles is already off the PUP and will play this year. If he returns to full form - and there is no reason to expect he won't - he'll replace Burleson next year to make a scary good trio of receivers. Scary good.

Brandon Pettigrew has apparently found his ceiling after two seasons with around 750 yards and four or five scores. If Broyles eventually catches fire, it would likely come at the expense of Pettigrew's stats at least partially.

The Lions go into this season with Jahvid Best on PUP because of the concussion that never ends. That leaves Kevin Smith as the primary back. He had 140 rush yards and two scores when the Buccaneers brought their NFL worst rush defense to town last year but otherwise never gained more than 50 rush yards in his seven other games. He injured his ankle and sprained his knee last season and then twisted his ankle in a preseason game. Not exactly dispelling any durability questions. He'll be joined by Mikel LeShoure once he is done with his two game suspension from smoking weed while recovering from the knee injury that sidelined him for his entire rookie season. LeShoure actually looked good in preseason play once he cleared his hamstring strain.

True fact - the Lions have never had any primary running back play all 16 games in the last 11 years. James Stewart did it in 2000. Barry Sanders did it for his final five years. But since then the Lions have been cursed. All the better for the passing game...

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 5 12 2 3 13 2
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 9 27 22 1 29 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET GB 0000031020 ***
After facing a combined 60 passes from Geno Smith and Russell Wilson, the Packers' secondary will finally be tested: Stafford has averaged 43 pass attempts per game over the last six meetings. And while he's only tossed multiple touchdowns twice in that span he's had at least 262 passing yards, including 520 and 5 late in 2011 and 330 and 3 the last time Green Bay came to town.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joique Bell, DET GB 5012200000 ***
Big backs have fared well against the Raji-less Packers front, with Marshawn Lynch and Chris Ivory combining for three TDs and 4.6 yards per carry. Pass-catching backs haven't exactly struggled, either; the Packers gave up an RB receiving score in Week 1 and 65 receiving yards to Jets backs last week. Bell was limited in practice earlier in the week with a knee issue; if he's good to go by the weekend he should capitalize in both of those arenas--much like the 19-94-1/3-34 line he posted on the Pack the last time they came to town.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Reggie Bush, DET GB 4006600000 ***
Bush's role in this offense has been de-emphasized, so a repeat of last season's 182 yards from scrimmage in the back end of the season series seems unlikely--unless Joique Bell's knee issues force the Lions to load Reggie up with more touches than he's been seeing thus far this season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Johnson, DET GB 0071102000 ***
Megatron has reached triple-digit yardage in half of his meetings with Green Bay, including his last four straight; he's also scored in three-fourths of those contests, including four of the last five. After letting Eric Decker and Ricardo Lockette find the end zone against them, it's hard to imagine the Packers secondary keeping Johnson from hitting both of those marks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET GB 006700000 ***
Tate scored twice* the last time he faced the Packers, and that was in Seattle where they throw the ball about half as much as they do in Detroit. Tate's 14 targets through two games as Megatron's wingman speak to his role, and while expectations shouldn't be gaudy a solid outing should be in store.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET GB 002300000 ***
The Lions' tight end production still seems fractured, though Ebron stepped to the fore last week. Green Bay hasn't faced much in the way of pass-catching tight ends, but until Ebron's role in this offense is more stable he can't be trusted with a fantasy start.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nate Freese, DET GB 3233 ***
The Lions were auditioning kickers this week; by the time you read this Freese may be an ex-Lion. You'll want something a little more stable for your fantasy lineup.

WEEK 1
2012
DAL at NYG (WED) IND at CHI PHI at CLE STL at DET
ATL at KC JAC at MIN PIT at DEN WAS at NO
BUF at NYJ MIA at HOU SEA at ARI CIN at BAL (MON)
  CAR at TB NE at TEN SF at GB SD at OAK (MON)

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