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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: BAL 27, PHI 20 (Line: PHI by 2)

Players to watch: Dennis Pitta, Michael Vick

Players Updated: Jeremy Maclin, Desean Jackson

The Ravens come off a big Monday night win over the Bengals and are looking like a playoff run is already in the cards. The Eagles slink back home after late game theatrics managed to post a comeback win over the Cleveland Browns who almost won that game with virtually no offense. The Eagles get favored here at home and it is a coin tosser but the Ravens are hitting on all cylinders. That's enough to merit an upset if only from the chance for more errors by the Eagles who were only 3-5 at home last year anyway.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK -----
2 @PHI ----- 11 @PIT -----
3 NE ----- 12 @SD -----
4 CLE ----- 13 PIT -----
5 @KC ----- 14 @WAS -----
6 DAL ----- 15 DEN -----
7 @HOU ----- 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 240,2
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-80
WR Mike Wallace 4-70,1
TE Benjamin Watson 2-20
PK Justin Tucker 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It all came together after halftime on Monday when the Ravens reeled off 27 straight points to end the game with the Bengals. How much of it was facing the visiting Bengals and how much are true changes will be known in the next few weeks but so far - the offense has kicked it up a notch or three. Joe Flacco was to be "set free" and allowed more freedom and more passing in a more open offense. Mission accomplished. He completed 21 of 29 passes for 299 yards and two scores with no turnovers. He made good decisions and distributed the ball very well with seven different receivers catching two or more passes. He had five completions over 25 yards. This is no dink-n-dunk "let's give it to Ray" offense.

Consider too that Ray Rice only had ten carries. He gained 68 yards and score twice while adding three catches for 25 more yards. But that was only 13 touches for Rice. And that is a change. If Rice continues to be so wildly productive, it does not matter.

Torrey Smith was the hot sleeper for some and he looked sharp with a 52 yard catch but only added one more reception for five yards and a run for 13. They did not need much more from him obviously but it was slightly disappointing to see him with just three touches in the game. Anquan Boldin had a nice effort with 63 yards and a 34-yard touchdown where he wrestled the ball away from the defender in the end zone. It all worked for the offense. Jacoby Jones added three receptions for 46 yards as the newest addition to the receivers. Even Dennis Pitta ended up as the lead receiver with five catches for 73 yards and one score. It all worked. And everyone got some. And no one had a lot other than Ray Rice.

This is just one game but a very nice start to the season. And to the benefit of the Ravens, no longer can a defense just stop one or two players.

The Eagles defense was stout against the Browns but how much of that was the defense and how much was just the Browns offense can be argued. Back at home the Eagles will play tougher but they have to stop a whole lot of pieces on the Ravens now. That's unlike the Browns where nothing worked.

If Vick can throw four interceptions and fumble twice against the Browns, I love a defensive touchdown for the Ravens. The interception return by Cleveland for a score almost beat them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 6 4 19 3 5 3
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 1 4 3 3 19 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL @GB 0000020011 ***
Morgan Burnett missed last week for the Packers. The defense has given up only five QB TD passes in the last four games, plus a rushing score, but the 307 yards allowed, on average, is the third-highest figure. Flacco returns from his bye for a trip to Lambeau.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Javorius Allen, BAL @GB 3002201000 *
Allen should once again see a mixture of carriers and third-down work with Danny Woodhead's status in doubt. The Packers have given up 6.0 receptions (10th) and 51.8 yards (8th) per contest to the position. Only 10 teams have surrendered more offensive yards to outing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alex Collins, BAL @GB 500000000 ***
Running backs have gained 93.5 rushing yards (16th) and a ground score every 36.7 totes (13th). For more conventional backs like Collins, this is a midrange matchup. It caters more to pass-catching types.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Danny Woodhead, BAL @GB 1005400000 *
Woodhead is expected to return this week but isn't a wise play, even with a quality matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, BAL @GB 006700000 ***
This ultimately could prove to be a conservative projection. Maclin faces the No. 2 defense for giving up catches and No. 3 for yardage on a per-game basis. The Packers have allowed one TD per game, as well, and rank fourth in fantasy points surrendered. Coming off of a bye, Maclin could be a sneaky play. There is plenty of meat on the bone for me, especially if Green Bay is without safety Morgan Burnett once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, BAL @GB 003500000 ***
Green Bay has given up a lot of possession types in the way of receptions and yardage, but touchdowns have come at only the 18th-highest frequency. The Packers rank 15th in points per play. This matchup may favor Jeremy Maclin instead.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Benjamin Watson, BAL @GB 004400000 ***
Green Bay has done a remarkable job of shutting down tight ends. None of them have scored in the past four games, covering 15 receptions worth of action. This is the third-hardest matchup in Week 11.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL @GB 3311 ***
Kickers have averaged 11.3 possible fantasy points, making 10.3 worth, in the past five weeks against the Packers. Green Bay has permitted 3.0 field goals and 2.8 PATs, on average, to help make this a top-two matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL ----- 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI ----- 12 CAR -----
4 NYG ----- 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT ----- 14 @TB -----
6 DET ----- 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL ----- 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Darren Sproles 30 6-50,1
WR Alshon Jeffery 5-80,1
WR Torrey Smith 3-60
TE Brent Celek 4-40

Pregame Notes: Sure it was a win but it was Sylvester Stallone in drag kind of ugly. The Eagles squeaked past the Browns (a phrase I have never written) thanks to a touchdown pass to Clay Harbor with only 1:18 left to play. The sad part was that the Eagles literally produced three times the offensive yardage and yet beat them in turnovers 5 to 4. Michael Vick passed for 317 yards and two scores but was intercepted four times.

LeSean McCoy ran for 110 yards on 20 carries and gained 26 yards on six catches but lost a fumble. It was sloppy play for a team that seemed vastly more talented and yet drastically under prepared. Hard to do with only nine months to get ready.

Jeremy Maclin was the top receiver with seven receptions for 96 yards and one score but he was injured multiple times in the game only to return. He has been diagnosed with a right hip flexor which may impact this game. Updates as injury reports are released during the week but Maclin has a history of playing through dings. DeSean Jackson posted 77 yards on four catches and even Brent Celek ended with 65 yards on four receptions. The passing game worked well enough to get close and then not score. Or just stopped when Vick for threw another interception.

The Eagles were move the ball on a good defense but mistakes and turnovers almost ruined it.

Now facing the Ravens who throttled the Bengals will be an even bigger challenge. This game turns on mistakes and Vick needs a solid effort here to get past. After last week, that is hard to rely on.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 9 16 7 5 26 11
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 3 14 21 6 13 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI @DAL 0000024030 ***
Well-rested, Wentz and Co. take on a Dallas defense that is likely to be without its top playmaker. Fantasy-wise, this group has given up only 19.9 points per game, which is the 19th-highest average. Wentz faces a unit allowing a TD every 19 completions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, PHI @DAL 8011100000 *
This is a rather negative matchup. The Cowboys have given up only 66.8 rushing yards (28th) and a touchdown every 36 rushing attempts (12th), or two scores in the past four games. The 'Boys could give up more production with LB Sean Lee likely out of action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Clement, PHI @DAL 2001200000 *
Clement was a fantasy darling a few weeks ago but is a risky proposition for Week 11 lineups. Dallas has yielded just two TDs over the past 94 offensive touches (19th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI @DAL 300000000 *
The matchup isn't worthy of tossing Blount into a fantasy lineup without being in a dire situation. With Jay Ajayi gaining extra time via the bye week to study up, expect a lessened role for Blount.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI @DAL 004601000 ***
We've seen countless times this year how Agholor's fantasy worth is directly tied to finding the end zone. Dallas has given up only three WR TDs in the past four games, so there is a hint of hope here. This is a slightly optimistic projection, but it's absolutely worth gambling on in fantasy lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI @DAL 002401000 ***
Receivers have averaged 13 receptions (7th) for 157.3 yards (13th) and a TD every 17.3 grabs (23rd), which shows Dallas has done a sound job of the proverbial bending without breaking. This project really could go either way, but expecting a brilliant day from Jeffery would be asking a bit much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @DAL 005701000 ***
Ertz should be healthy after the bye week and ready to resume his dominant season. The Cowboys have given up two tight end scores in the past four games, and this is an overall neutral matchup. In Week 17 last year, he exploded for 13 catches, 139 yards and two TDs vs. a largely resting Dallas team.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI @DAL 1144 ***
The matchup is solidly negative based on fantasy points allowed, with one missed field goal and an inaccurate point-after try. The potential for more is definitely real.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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