Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: DAL 24, SEA 20 (Line: DAL by 3)

Players to watch: Kevin Ogletree, Russell Wilson, Braylon Edwards

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch, Jason Witten

The Cowboys come off their surprise handling of the reigning Super Bowl Champs which not only pleased the Dallas fans but left them asking "Where the hell was that last January?" The Cowboys won 23-13 in Seattle in week 9 of last year where the Seahawks return after then were handled by the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. Both teams are now sporting good defenses but so far the Cowboys are the only one with an offense to use as well. Another plus - Dallas has been off for the last 11 days by the time they play in this game.

Dallas Cowboys
Homefield: Cowboys Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYG 24-17 10 @PHI -----
2 @SEA ----- 11 CLE -----
3 TB ----- 12 WAS -----
4 CHI ----- 13 PHI -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @CIN -----
6 @BAL ----- 15 PIT -----
7 @CAR ----- 16 NO -----
8 NYG ----- 17 @WAS -----
9 @ATL ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
DAL @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Tony Romo 10 260,2
QB Mark Sanchez 10 200,1
RB Darren McFadden 50 6-60
RB Alfred Morris 80,1
WR Dez Bryant 5-80,1
TE Jason Witten 4-50,1
PK Dan Bailey 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over a long-time nemesis of the Giants. What was most notable about the game was that the Dallas defense looked very good. Like the additions of LCB Brandon Carr and the rookie RCB Morris Claiborne were exactly what the defense had been lacking for maybe the last 20 years or so. Eli Manning tried to pick on the rookie with minimal success.

It was a game where it all worked for the Cowboys. Tony Romo looked in top form completing 22 of 29 for 307 yards and three scores with no bonehead interception at the end. He used all his receivers and showed nice mobility when he only gave up two sacks. According to my wife, this is because he got married and now has a kid. In fairness, that is what made me grow up, get serious and want to spend my Sundays away from home as well.

Another big plus was DeMarco Murray who started out slowly but then popped a 48 yard run and ended with 131 yards on 20 carries - his first ever 100 yard game away from Dallas. Murray had all the running back carries while Felix Jones spend most time on special teams as a returner.

Dez Bryant (4-85) and Miles Austin (4-73, TD) both had decent games thanks to at least one long catch from each. But the story to tell was all about Kevin Ogletree who ended with eight catches for 114 yards and two scores. His very first touchdowns after spending three years in the league. His was an aberration of immense proportions. He had never caught more than three passes or gained more than 50 yards in any game as well. But he replaces Laurent Robinson who also feasted on touchdowns last year in Dallas. There is always a chance that the undrafted, fourth-year player is just now breaking out. But mostly it's just a great game that happened to be on week one in front of the entire country.

Jason Witten was able to return from his lacerated spleen and play though he was only thrown three passes and caught just two for ten yards. He was much more of a decoy than a threat. WIth 11 days passing until this game, Witten should be a bigger factor this week.

Facing the Seahawks in Seattle means going against a very good defense that stuffed the Cardinals nearly enough to win. The Cowboys defense will come into play here by keeping the need for a big score down. It will be a good test for the offense in another road game but not against a well-known divisional opponent and all that carries with it.

Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 3 22 1 25 23 20
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 7 7 17 12 16 19

QB Dak Prescott, DAL @NYG 20100024011 ***
These teams met in Week 1, when Prescott threw for 227 yards, with no TDs or no interceptions. That was a 24-point fantasy day. The Giants have allowed just five TDs in the last five weeks, but Prescott has greatly matured since his first start.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @NYG 9014300000 ***
New York has allowed rushing scores at the eighth easiest rate in the last five weeks, helping create the 13th best matchup for exploitation. The position has averaged 128.4 offensive yards. Elliott had 52 total yards and a score in Week 1; he's an entirely different back today.
WR Cole Beasley, DAL @NYG 006601000 ***
Beasley scored 14.5 PPR points in the season opener against the Giants. The Cowboys have evolved greatly since that game, and Beasley should benefit from all of the added attention paid to Dez.
WR Dez Bryant, DAL @NYG 005600000 ***
Bryant was held to one catch for eight yards in the opener with Dak Prescott making his NFL debut. Things have changed in Dallas' favor on offense, but New York remains decisively oppressive against wideouts.
WR Terrance Williams, DAL @NYG 002300000 ***
Williams has no fantasy appeal in Week 14 against a tough NYG pass defense.
TE Jason Witten, DAL @NYG 005500000 ***
New York has given up the third most points per game to fantasy tight ends in PPR over the last five weeks, so there's some appeal here. In Week 1, Witten caught nine of 14 targets for 66 yards against the Giants.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Bailey, DAL @NYG 2233 ***
The Giants have granted the fifth highest average for field goal attempts since Week 8, but this defense has allowed only eight extra points, which makes it a neutral matchup on paper.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL ----- 11 BYE -----
3 GB ----- 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL ----- 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR ----- 14 ARI -----
6 NE ----- 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF ----- 16 SF -----
8 @DET ----- 17 STL -----
9 MIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs DAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 190,1
WR Doug Baldwin 2-20
TE Jimmy Graham 7-80,1
PK Steven Hauschka 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks found a strong rushing attack last year when Marshawn Lynch exploded after the first couple of weeks of the season. Already owning a very good defense, the only remaining piece of the puzzle seemed to be quarterback since it ended up that Tarvaris Jackson actually was not NFL starting quality. So they brought in Matt Flynn at great expense only to see him outplayed by the rookie Russell Wilson.

But going against nothing but first team starters in Arizona, he only completed 18 of 34 for 153 yards and one touchdown with an interception and a lost fumble. It is expected that he would start slowly and that is sure to play into this game. If he continues to struggle they may end up back with Flynn but the coaches all continue to support Wilson.

Marshawn Lynch was not bothered by back spasms much like last year and ended with 85 yards on 21 carries against the Cardinals. Robert Turbin was limited to only two runs for five yards and you can continue to expect that Lynch handles the heavy load. He remains the focal point of the offense.

To the credit of Wilson, he tried to connect with his starting wideouts. He threw nine passes to both Sidney Rice (4-36, TD) and Braylon Edwards (5-43) and six went to Doug Baldwin. He's not relying on tight ends and running backs - he's getting the ball downfield and had a few drops work against him.

Unfortunately, this will be a challenging week since the Cowboys defense appears to be much improved and their offense will be able to post points better than the Cardinals if last week holds true. It is always an advantage to play in Seattle but this may be as hard a matchup as visits outside of the 49ers.

Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 28 25 26 26 11 19
Preventing Fantasy Points DAL 9 13 8 21 8 12

QB Russell Wilson, SEA @GB 20000027021 ***
Green Bay has given up the fifth most fantasy points on a per-game basis over the past five weeks. The Packers have permitted the highest points-per-play average in this time, also giving up a TD ever 10.9 completions.
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA @GB 5003200000 ***
Green Bay has really regressed versus running backs as the season has unfolded. This probably will be more about the passing game, though, where the Packers are even worse. Rawls has a hint of upside for scoring against what is the second friendliest matchup in this area.
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @GB 005601000 ***
Green Bay has been exploited by wideouts in the last five weeks to the tune of giving up TDs at the second easiest rate. The position has mustered 168.6 receiving yards per game against the 13th easiest matchup for Week 14.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @GB 2003500000 ***
Lockett won't score a 75-yard TD run every week, but he looks healthy for the first time all year. He has tremendous upside and should be in lineup as a flex for most gamers. The Packers are fantasy's 13th most exploitable defense of receivers entering Week 14.
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA @GB 003500000 ***
Kearse finally appeared on the radar last week (5-68-0) but continue to have no fantasy worth in 2016.
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA @GB 005601000 ***
No defense has been weaker in the last five games against tight ends than Green Bay. three of the 38 receptions faced have scored, which is good for only 15th. Those 7.6 catches a game rate as second most, as do the 84 receiving yards allowed.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA @GB 2222 ***
Green Bay has given up 3.2 extra point attempts and just 1.2 field goal tries per contest since Week 8.

* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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