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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: DET 17, SF 27 (Line: SF by 6.5)

Players to watch: Brandon Pettigrew

Players Updated: Calvin Johnson

The Lions outlasted the Rams but that should have never been such a close game. The 49ers return home after their upset of the Packers in Green Bay and now that the offense is looking as good as the defense, this team might be scary "let meet in New Orleans on February 3rd" kind of good.

The 49ers won 25-19 in Detroit last year.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN -----
2 @SF ----- 11 GB -----
3 @TEN ----- 12 HOU -----
4 MIN ----- 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI ----- 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI ----- 16 ATL -----
8 SEA ----- 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET @ SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 10 300,2
RB Reggie Bush 90,1 5-40
RB Kevin Smith 40 4-20
WR Nate Burleson 4-40
WR Calvin Johnson 8-100,1
TE Brandon Pettigrew 5-50,1
TE Tony Scheffler 2-20
PK David Akers 2 FG 3 XP
PK Jason Hanson 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Facing the Rams should have been a freebie complete with party favors and time to beat the crowd home. Instead it became throwing the winning touchdown with only ten seconds left to play to secure the win. Like the Eagles, this team struggled with turnovers and almost let the unthinkable happen against a weaker opponent. Matthew Stafford passed for 355 yards but just the one score with ten seconds left to play. He also threw three interceptions including one returned for a touchdown.

Stafford passed for 293 yards and two scores when the 49ers visited last year.

Kevin Smith provided more than adequate rushing with 62 yards and one score on 13 carries and four catches for 29 yards with the game winning score. No other back had more than one carry though Joique Bell made his a touchdown from one-yard out. So far, Smith is playing well enough to be the starter and has yet to be injured.

It turned into a pass-heavy game and that meant big numbers from Calvin Johnson (6-111) and Nate Burleson (6-69) while the littlest sleeper in the league only posted once catch for 14 yards. Titus Young added a run for 11 yards but only had the two touches in the game. In the meeting with the 49ers last season, Johnson produced 113 yards on seven catches while Burleson scored on his four grabs for 34 yards. Titus Young - still just one catch.

What may be a sign of better things is that Brandon Pettigrew was the primary receiver with ten targets and five catches for 77 yards. Pettigrew scored once and collected eight receptions for 42 yards in the last meeting with the 49ers.

Playing in San Francisco is not going to be any easier and the 49ers just dropped the hammer on the Packers in Green Bay. The rushing effort is about to get a major slow down but Matthew Stafford will get his passing yards if only later in the game when it no longer matters.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 18 3 18 2 15 26
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 26 1 30 27 1 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET CHI 0000032012 ***
Stafford needs 305 yards to crack the 5,000-yard mark, and Calvin Johnson is 108 shy of 2,000. The Lions already throw plenty anyway, here's one more reason to throw the ball even more. What else does Detroit have to play for?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mikel Leshoure, DET CHI 401000000 ***
Leshoure has scored in five of six, capitalizing on Calvin Johnson's inability to find the end zone. But the Bears have been stingy to opposing backs, giving up just six RB rushing scores on the year. Add in Joique Bell stealing looks--especially in the passing game, which constitutes the bulk of the Lions' game plan--and Leshoure is a difficult fantasy start this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Reggie Bush, DET CHI 6002200000 ****
Bush only gained 64 yards in the home game against the Pats but scored twice as a receiver last week against the Bills. The Pats have never allowed any runner to gain more than 83 yards in New England and it is less likely Bush will run in a score this time than last.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joique Bell, DET CHI 006500000 ***
Bell might roll up some yardage as the Lions' third down/passing situation back, but there's limited fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Johnson, DET CHI 00121600000 ***
Da Bears held Megatron to three catches on 11 targets in the earlier meeting, but the two guys who picked up his slack--Titus Young and Ryan Broyles--are both out of the mix. CJ needs 108 yards to become CJ2K; over the past five he's averaged 17 targets, 10 catches, and 155 yards, so that mark is a given. Just don't expect a touchdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kris Durham, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Seriously, this is the best wingman the Lions can come up with? Everything's going to Megatron regardless of whether or not he's covered, no reason to think Durham suddenly becomes a competent receiver in Week 17 against a Bears team that needs to win.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tony Scheffler, DET CHI 004501000 ***
With Brandon Pettigrew nicked Scheffler becomes the lead dog in the Lions' TEBC, but now he's sharing with Will Heller. Against a Bears D that hasn't allowed a TE TD in a month and only surrendered four all year, a half share isn't enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Heller, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Heller steps into Tony Scheffler's role now that Scheffler has taken on Brandon Pettigrew's duties. Meh.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K David Akers, DET CHI 2133 ***
Akers at home won't get skunked but may only kick extra points this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Hanson, DET CHI 2122 ***
The Lions probably can't send Hanson out a winner, but they could at least let him kick a couple for old time's sake.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL -----
2 DET ----- 11 CHI -----
3 @MIN ----- 12 @NO -----
4 @NYJ ----- 13 @STL -----
5 BUF ----- 14 MIA -----
6 NYG ----- 15 @NE -----
7 SEA ----- 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI ----- 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Frank Gore 110,1
RB Kendall Hunter 40 2-10
WR Anquan Boldin 4-70,1
WR Michael Crabtree 5-70
WR Mario Manningham 2-20
WR Randy Moss 3-40
TE Vernon Davis 4-40,1

Pregame Notes: If ever one game said this is the year, this is the year. The 49ers went to Green Bay where they held the Packers to two offensive touchdowns and one returned punt. Cedric Benson went from glowing reports to only gaining 18 yards on nine carries. They held the three main receivers to less than 65 yards each. But it was not only a defensive victory.

The 49ers offense - on the road - scored three times and kicked three field goals. Alex Smith completed 20 of 26 for 211 yard and two touchdowns with no turnovers. He relied mostly on Michael Crabtree (7-76) but threw touchdowns to Randy Moss (4-47) and Vernon Davis (3-43). The passing stats may have gone bigger but the rushing attack was holding it own.

Frank Gore gained 112 yards and one score on just 16 carries like it was the first half of 2011 again. He looked fresh and fast. Kendall Hunter was given nine runs and gained 41 yards but was not thrown any passes.

It was an offense that just all worked and took down the same team that went 15-1 last season. At their house.

This week is a rematch of sorts with the Lions and last year Gore rumbled for 141 yards and a score on just 15 carries. Crabtree ended with 77 yards and nine receptions but that may change with the new receivers. This offense has regained the rushing form of last season and is not only passing more, but passing better and more efficiently. Attach that to perhaps the best defense in the league and yeah, maybe this is the year.

I like the chance of a defensive score this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 12 13 13 16 7 18
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 8 9 10 5 24 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colin Kaepernick, SF ARI 40100022020 ****
Kaepernick could use a good game here after only 244 yards and one score in Seattle last week. Alex Smith tossed three scores and 232 yards in the win in Arizona. Figure on Kaepernick having a decent showing here and a good shot at a rushing score. He won't get pulled from this one that they must win and he needs the reps anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, SF ARI 6001100000 **
Gore's been less effective in the second half of the year and only managed 16-55 in the Arizona meeting with the Cards. The problem here could be a big 49ers lead which leads to less use of Gore and possibly yanking him later in the game knowing they need him more for the playoffs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LaMichael James, SF ARI 4002100000 **
James has only seen about 8 carries per week as a high but that could go up this week against the Cardinals. That still won't make him anything more than a really risky flex play at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, SF ARI 005701000 ****
Crabtree enjoyed one of his best showings on the year when he caught 5-72 with two TDs in Arizona during week eight. He's always been a safe bet at home where four of his last five TDs happened.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Anquan Boldin, SF ARI 007800000 ***
The veteran needs 79 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Maybe the Ravens will force-feed him to get there, but that's hardly enough to make him a fantasy must-start against a pretty good Cincy secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randy Moss, SF ARI 003400000 ****
Moss steps into the #2 role now that Manningham is out but that is not likely to mean too much. Manningham never gained more than 72 yards as the flanker and scored only once all year. Worth watching to see what changes if any are made but not worth relying on for a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, SF ARI 002200000 *
Davis needs to be more involved now that Manningham is gone but he only accounted for 2-34 in the last meeting with the Cards. He's only averaged one catch over the last five weeks and never scored. Fortunately the Cards are weak against the position on the road where three of their last four opponents scored used a TE.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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