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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: HOU 23, JAC 17(Line: HOU by 7.5)

Players to watch: Lestar Jean, Blaine Gabbert

Players Updated: Rashad Jennings, Arian Foster

The Texans hit the road after dispatching the Dolphins with minimal effort and head to Jacksonville. The Jaguars return after a solid offensive effort fell short in overtime just to make it hurt a little worse. The Texans swept the Jaguars in 2011, winning 24-14 at home and later 20-13 in Jacksonville. Even if the Jaguars really are better, they are still not this better.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI -----
2 @JAC ----- 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN ----- 12 @DET -----
4 TEN ----- 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ ----- 14 @NE -----
6 GB ----- 15 IND -----
7 BAL ----- 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 240,1
RB Arian Foster 80,1 4-40
RB Ben Tate 20
WR Lestar Jean 3-40
WR Andre Johnson 5-60,1
TE Owen Daniels 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Texans had a solid effort from Matt Schaub who claims to be finally healthy. He played like it. He passed for 261 yards and one score but had no turnovers and really never needed to throw to win the game. Passing simply because he could was more like the old Schaub. His effort still gets an incomplete though because he relied on just two receivers and nearly ignored the rest.

Andre Johnson turned a team high ten targets into eight receptions for 119 yards and one touchdown. No other wideout had more than two catches or 16 yards. Lestar Jean only ended with one catch for nine yards but the rookie barely missed a 35-yard touchdown catch when one foot caught the sideline. This offense can run obviously but when it comes to passing, Johnson has to have a complement. Kevin Walter is never going to be that guy though they have yet to find anyone better - except maybe now. It may take some time but Jean looks smooth and fast. He could develop into what this offense needs and is worth keeping an eye on.

Owen Daniels was the second most used target last week and ended with 87 yards on four receptions. He is the de facto #2 receiver at least until a wide receiver like Jean steps up. It's rare that he scores and that hurts his value but he's been decent with yardage when healthy.

The fear last week was that Arian Foster was going to be limited because he hit the injury report with a sore knee but that never really mattered when the game started. Foster ran 26 times and while he only gained 79 yards, he scored twice. Ben Tate only managed six yards on five carries to disappoint fantasy owners who thought their seventh round steal was going to pay off in week one. He may never pay off. Foster carries a heavy load and has to be gone for Tate to have "startable" stats.

The Jaguars were typically run over by the Texans last year and that could happen yet again. After allowing Christian Ponder to throw for 270 yards it might spell something good for Schaub who only threw for 225 yards and one score in their last meeting. But the Jags gave up two scores and 84 yards to Adrian Peterson and that's bad when you are about to face the premier backfield in the league. Foster rushed for 65 yards and a score in Jacksonville in 2011 and added seven receptions. The Jaguars are improving at least incrementally but the Texans defense can handle this game well enough. Add in Foster and it will be another Houston win.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 22 7 22 17 6 8
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 6 24 12 13 28 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Schaub, HOU @IND 0000025021 ***
Two weeks ago Schaub threw for 261 and 1 against the Colts. He may be asked to do a bit more of the heavy lifting with Arian Foster coming back from an irregular heartbeat. And Houston still has something to play for, as a win would salt away the top seed and home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Arian Foster, HOU @IND 8013200000 ***
Foster rolled the Colts for 165 yards on 27 carries a couple weeks back, and he's been cleared by doctors following last week's irregular heartbeat incident. But with the playoffs looming and Ben Tate healthy, not to mention the whole heartbeat thing, that seems like an aggressive workload against Indy. Settle for "good", but he'll likely share too much with Tate to hit "great".
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ben Tate, HOU @IND 4003200000 ***
Indy has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in five of the last six games, including 178 to the Texans in Week 15. Arian Foster accounted for most of that, but Tate's healthier now and after Foster left last week's game with an irregular heartbeat it wouldn't be a shock to see Tate handle a bigger share of the work this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Johnson, HOU @IND 0071001000 ***
Johnson took the Colts for 11-151-1 a couple weeks back, so he should have no trouble collecting the 43 yards he needs to reach the 1,500-yard mark. And with double-digit targets in four straight (and five of six, and eight of the last 10) he'll be the guy Matt Schaub leans on if the ground game can't get going--or if the Texans find themselves playing catch-up to Andrew Luck.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVier Posey, HOU @IND 002300000 ***
Is Posey taking over the wingman job from Kevin Walter? Maybe, but he hasn't done enough to turn that gig into something warranting fantasy attention just yet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Owen Daniels, HOU @IND 004401000 ***
Daniels didn't do much against Indy a couple weeks back, and with James Casey and Garrett Graham stealing the occasional touchdown he's a tough start in TD-heavy scoring systems. He's still the lead dog in the Texans' tight end rotation, but that doesn't carry as much weight as it used to.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Garrett Graham, HOU @IND 002200000 ***
Graham's biggest fantasy impact is stealing just enough from Owen Daniels' plate to render him a lesser fantasy entity. He's not doing enough on his own on a consistent basis to warrant a fantasy start.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU ----- 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND ----- 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert 10 200,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 70,1 4-30
WR Justin Blackmon 4-50
WR Mohamed Massaquoi 3-40
WR Laurent Robinson 5-70
WR Cecil Shorts 2-20
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-50,1
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars lost in overtime in Minnesota which is even worse when you consider that they only won once on the road for all of last year. Blaine Gabbert looked much improved from his rookie season when he passed for 260 yards and two scores in Minnesota. Realize that Gabbert never passed for more than one score in any road game and he never gained more than 221 passing yards in any game until Sunday. He threw no interceptions and looked like a real, legitimate NFL quarterback for the first time. This is a wildly encouraging development since the Jags brought on two new receivers.

The rookie Justin Blackmon only managed to gain 24 yards on three catches in his first game but Laurent Robinson threw down five receptions for 66 yards and in this offense - that is something notable. It is a sign that the Jags may pull themselves out of the league passing cellar this season. Cecil Shorts scored once and ended with 74 yards on four catches thanks to a 39-yard score with 20 seconds left to play for what seemed to be the winning touchdown. Did not work out as a victory but the passing stats were superior to anything seen last year. That's plenty of progress for week one.

Marcedes Lewis scored once last week and ended with five catches for 52 yards which was reminiscent of the expectations of 2011 that were dashed. Lewis had two touchdowns in 2010 but then failed to reach the end zone in 2012. This is a good sign that Lewis may be back to form if Gabbert continues to throw better.

The Jaguars lost Rashad Jennings to a knee injury which was still waiting an MRI at this writing. We will update as needed but with Maurice Jones-Drew back, there is no real reason to consider Jennings anyway. MJD gained 77 yards on 19 carries and added three catches though all was not positive. Jones-Drew didn't have much burst which is understandable given his holdout. The question is when that returns. At least he'll continue to be the primary runner and it appears likely that Jennings is not going to interfere as much as initially believed.

This will be a good measure this week facing the familiar Texans with their dominating defense. A win here would be huge but the Texans have a better team in almost every facet.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 11 14 17 11 16 22
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 2 22 5 4 3 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Chad Henne, JAC @TEN 0000020012 ***
Henne already racked up 261 yards and two scores on the Titans who have been good for at least one or two passing scores to every opponent. Losing Shorts this week won't help though nor will a road game. Can't expect more than moderate yardage and one score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Montell Owens, JAC @TEN 4011100000 *****
Owens has been a decent fantasy start for being a waiver wire find a few weeks back but he has really been ineffective in his two road games with never more than 50 total yards and never scoring. The Titans are not great against the run and allowed even Jennings to score once on them. The yardage is not likely to be much here but Owens has a very good shot to score once against a defense that has already allowed 18 touchdowns to running backs this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Justin Blackmon, JAC @TEN 006801000 **
Blackmon posted 5-62 and one score against the Titans before but now Shorts will be gone. That could mean lots more passes for Blackmon or just more defensive coverage dedicated to him. He's as good as any Jaguar to score though and has enough upside to merit some consideration this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Shipley, JAC @TEN 005700000 ***
Shipley could see more work with Shorts out but nothing that would merit a fantasy start this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @TEN 005400000 *****
Lewis gained 56 yards on four catches versus the Titans last time and the loss of Shorts could end up with more work for him. But he has only scored in one of the last 11 games and fell below 30 yards in each of his last three games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @TEN 2122 ****
Never worthy of a fantasy start.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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