Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: KC 24, BUF 20 (Line: BUF by 3)

Players to watch: Dexter McCluster, T.J. Graham

The Chiefs leave home after being pummeled by the Falcons who just made it look easy while the Bills return home after being waxed by the Jets that no one suspected of having an offense. This is a coin flip game but you have to like that the Bills just lost Fred Jackson again. And David Nelson. And the Bills embarrassed the Chiefs in week one last year way before everyone figured out the Buffalo offense.

The Bills won their 2011 season opener when they beat the Chiefs 41-7 in Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF ----- 11 CIN -----
3 @NO ----- 12 DEN -----
4 SD ----- 13 CAR -----
5 BAL ----- 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 3-20
WR Jason Avant 2-20
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-80

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs were soundly beaten by the Falcons but that was more about how good Atlanta is this year and not as much about the Chiefs who did post 24 points. Matt Cassel passed for a credible 258 yards and one score but lost a fumble and tossed two interceptions. He also rushed in one score. It wasn't a winning effort but it was not a bad game. The Chiefs have a tough schedule with the AFC East showing up but Cassel looks like he'll make a game of it every time.

To his credit, he did spread the ball around. Dwayne Bowe (3-53) did not get much help other than what the Chiefs finally did with Dexter McCluster. He has been a round peg in a square hole so far, talented and dangerous and yet no one knew how to use him. Last year he flopped as a running back. This year he looks great as a wide receiver.

He led the Chiefs with six catches for 82 yards and his ten targets were four more than any other player. He was effective as a wideout split left where he could get the open space that makes him dangerous. He's the one to watch this week to see how much Cassel relies on him. The Chiefs have tried to find a suitable #2 across from Dwayne Bowe and Jon Baldwin was held without a reception this week. Steve Breaston caught just two passes. McCluster? Maybe his time has come. He looked the part.

The season opener also welcomed back Jamaal Charles who looked none the worse for the year off rehabbing his knee. Charles gained 87 yards on 16 carries which was far more productive than Peyton Hillis who settled for only 16 yards on his seven runs. Once the game was out of hand, they allowed Shaun Draughn to play but he's never supposed to be a factor. Charles looked fresh and ran hard. So much for career ending injuries anymore. Important too was that Hillis was not that effective as a runner but still had seven runs.

The Bills came in and just throttled the Chiefs last year but the tables are turned. Now the Bills have lost important players and are using an offensive scheme described as "the most predictable" in the NFL. The Chiefs just got every one back from injury and will make some amends on last year when the season was lost before it even started.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 10 1 32 8 22 30
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 28 15 29 9 25 32

QB Alex Smith, KC BUF 30000018010 ***
Only a Week 8 rushing score stands between Smith and six straight weeks of sub-20 point fantasy efforts. The Bills have held three of four--including Tom Brady last week--below that threshold, with only Ryan Fitzpatrick's 20.7 outing snapping the streak. So there's not a lot of fantasy upside to Smith this week.
RB Spencer Ware, KC BUF 8011100000 ***
Ware tore up the Chargers last week in relief of the injured Charcandrick West, but the Bolts don't put up much resistance to any ground game. The Bills are a different animal, having allowed only one 100-yard game on the year. That said, Ware should see the bulk of the touches in an RB-centric offense so he at least warrants fantasy consideration if West remains sidelined.
WR Albert Wilson, KC BUF 003301000 *
There's barely enough for any wideout to carve out fantasy value, let alone a wingman to blip on the fantasy radar. On the bright side, the Bills have allowed multiple wideouts to score and/or top 60 yards in four straight games so there's a chance Wilson does something to help your fantasy squad.
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC BUF 003400000 ***
Maclin is KC's WR1 in theory, but he hasn't done anything of fantasy note in a couple weeks. The Bills aren't a shutdown pass D but it won't be easy for Maclin to get his so temper expectations accordingly.
TE Travis Kelce, KC BUF 004400000 *
Buffalo hasn't allowed a TE TD since Week 6 or a tight end to top 40 yards since Week 2. Meanwhile, the Chiefs still refuse to lean on Kelce as a critical element of their offense; he's scored once since Week 1 and hasn't seen double-digit targets since Week 3. While he should be an every-week fantasy play, between his under-usage and the matchup you have better fantasy options at your disposal.

Update: Kelce is listed as questionable with groin and ankle injuries, and he was limited in practice Friday after practicing fully Wednesday and Thursday. It's already a tough matchup, and if Kelce's health further limits his playing time or productivity he won't be the fantasy performer we've become accustomed to.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC BUF 4422 ***
Lots of things are trending upwards in KC--including Cairo, who has nine points or more in four straight. Buffalo isn't an easy matchup, but right now Santos has a hot hand worth riding.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC ----- 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE ----- 12 @IND -----
4 NE ----- 13 JAC -----
5 @SF ----- 14 STL -----
6 @ARI ----- 15 SEA -----
7 TEN ----- 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 4-20
WR Percy Harvin 20 6-80,1
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Bad enough that the Bills were dismantled by division rivals of the Jets but losing two starters from the offense could be hard to compensate. Fred Jackson is believed to have injured his LCL but has to wait until the swelling subsides before an accurate MRI can be taken. He's out for at least one month, maybe more. David Nelson suffered a torn ACL and has been lost for the season.

T.J. Graham gets called up to take Nelson's place but he's an untested third round rookie who has more raw talent than refined skills. Graham was able to climb the depth chart in training camp. He's worth a watch just in case he catches fire and exceeds expectations.

C.J. Spiller once again waits until Jackson is out of the picture and then suddenly he looks like the second coming of O.J. Simpson. Spiller led the league with 169 rushing yards on 14 carries with one score and added two catches as well. He's undeniably fast and dangerous and for whatever reason needs Jackson out to show it. Tashard Choice moves up to be the primary backup but for now, the offense becomes the Spiller Show.

Steve Johnson (4-55) and Donald Brown (5-41) both scored against the Jets but the stats were all pedestrian last week outside of Spiller. Johnson scored once in the 2011 meeting while both he and David Nelson ended with four receptions for 66 yards.

Seemingly on cue from last year, Scott Chandler opens the year with a touchdown. Now we have to see if he disappears the rest of the year again. Chances are good.

The Bills at home won't be a push over but also should allow those better weapons of the Chiefs to be the difference in the game. A loss here and the Bills are already looking up hill this year.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 16 6 14 13 30 27
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 32 3 28 26 30 21

QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF @KC 10000022010 ***
Taylor has struggled since returning from injury, with two TDs in three games and a high game of 233 yards. It won't get any easier against a Chiefs defense that's been playing lights-out over the past month, holding five straight teams under 250 passing yards and giving up just four passing scores in that span. Taylor hasn't run much since his return, either, further limiting his fantasy value.
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF @KC 7006400000 ***
McCoy has reached triple-digit combo yardage in three previous meetings with top-10 defenses, so there's no need to bench him just because the Chiefs have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. It does, however, put a limit to his upside.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF @KC 200000000 ***
Williams' scoring streak came to a halt last week, and with LeSean McCoy still handling the bulk of the touches the Chiefs aren't the kind of matchup where he's likely to start a new one.
WR Chris Hogan, BUF @KC 006700000 ***
The good news is that the last three WR TDs the Chiefs have allowed have gone to secondary targets. The bad news is, those three TD have come over the past five games so there's no guarantee Hogan--or any Buffalo wideout--finds the end zone this week.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF @KC 004500000 ***
In the month since Stefon Diggs and Antonio Brown posted back-to-back 120-yard efforts against the Chiefs, no receiver has topped 85 yards and no WR1 has found the end zone. In two games since blowing up the Dolphins Watkins has totaled 53 yards. KC's secondary is playing well enough that Watkins' numbers are more likely to resemble the last fortnight, which is bad for fantasy purposes.
TE Charles Clay, BUF @KC 003300000 ***
Clay hasn't done much since Week 4; the Chiefs haven't allowed much of anything to the tight end position all year. You're sure to have better fantasy options at your disposal.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF @KC 2111 ***
Visiting kickers are averaging just six points per game in Arrowhead so lower your expectations for Carpenter this week.

* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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