Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: KC 24, BUF 20 (Line: BUF by 3)

Players to watch: Dexter McCluster, T.J. Graham

The Chiefs leave home after being pummeled by the Falcons who just made it look easy while the Bills return home after being waxed by the Jets that no one suspected of having an offense. This is a coin flip game but you have to like that the Bills just lost Fred Jackson again. And David Nelson. And the Bills embarrassed the Chiefs in week one last year way before everyone figured out the Buffalo offense.

The Bills won their 2011 season opener when they beat the Chiefs 41-7 in Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF ----- 11 CIN -----
3 @NO ----- 12 DEN -----
4 SD ----- 13 CAR -----
5 BAL ----- 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 3-20
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-80

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs were soundly beaten by the Falcons but that was more about how good Atlanta is this year and not as much about the Chiefs who did post 24 points. Matt Cassel passed for a credible 258 yards and one score but lost a fumble and tossed two interceptions. He also rushed in one score. It wasn't a winning effort but it was not a bad game. The Chiefs have a tough schedule with the AFC East showing up but Cassel looks like he'll make a game of it every time.

To his credit, he did spread the ball around. Dwayne Bowe (3-53) did not get much help other than what the Chiefs finally did with Dexter McCluster. He has been a round peg in a square hole so far, talented and dangerous and yet no one knew how to use him. Last year he flopped as a running back. This year he looks great as a wide receiver.

He led the Chiefs with six catches for 82 yards and his ten targets were four more than any other player. He was effective as a wideout split left where he could get the open space that makes him dangerous. He's the one to watch this week to see how much Cassel relies on him. The Chiefs have tried to find a suitable #2 across from Dwayne Bowe and Jon Baldwin was held without a reception this week. Steve Breaston caught just two passes. McCluster? Maybe his time has come. He looked the part.

The season opener also welcomed back Jamaal Charles who looked none the worse for the year off rehabbing his knee. Charles gained 87 yards on 16 carries which was far more productive than Peyton Hillis who settled for only 16 yards on his seven runs. Once the game was out of hand, they allowed Shaun Draughn to play but he's never supposed to be a factor. Charles looked fresh and ran hard. So much for career ending injuries anymore. Important too was that Hillis was not that effective as a runner but still had seven runs.

The Bills came in and just throttled the Chiefs last year but the tables are turned. Now the Bills have lost important players and are using an offensive scheme described as "the most predictable" in the NFL. The Chiefs just got every one back from injury and will make some amends on last year when the season was lost before it even started.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 10 1 32 8 22 30
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 28 15 29 9 25 32

QB Alex Smith, KC NO 20100024010 ***
Smith is always a risky recommendation, so being overly tempted by this matchup isn't necessarily wise. There's some upside, but safely, he's a bench player because of game flow.
RB Spencer Ware, KC NO 10013300000 ***
Ware should once again be a workhorse as Jamaal Charles finds his way. The Saints are the best matchup a running back can find, allowing a touchdown every 12.1 carries and 34.9 PPR points per game.
RB Jamaal Charles, KC NO 4002100000 *
Is this the week? No, probably not. JC is going to be slowly worked in, despite suggestions to the contrary, but that won't matter against the NFL's worst fantasy defense of his position. Risky, but there is upside.
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC NO 005700000 ***
No team has allowed more yardage to receivers on a per-game basis than the Saints. Maclin has a good shot at double figures for PPR owners.
WR Chris Conley, KC NO 003400000 ***
Conley has been involved in every game, catching at least two balls. He's athletic and has good size, but the system prevents him from posting huge numbers. The Saints could change all of that with their fourth worst defense of wideouts.
TE Travis Kelce, KC NO 006801000 ***
Kelce takes on an indifferent matchup from a fantasy perspective. The Saints have allowed 25-265-2 to tight ends in five games, or 12.7 PPR points per game. In their last two games, the Saints have given up big points to San Diego and Carolina tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC NO 1144 ***
Field goals don't keep pace with Drew Brees, and the Saints struggle at preventing touchdowns.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC ----- 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE ----- 12 @IND -----
4 NE ----- 13 JAC -----
5 @SF ----- 14 STL -----
6 @ARI ----- 15 SEA -----
7 TEN ----- 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Reggie Bush 90,1 5-40
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 4-20
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Bad enough that the Bills were dismantled by division rivals of the Jets but losing two starters from the offense could be hard to compensate. Fred Jackson is believed to have injured his LCL but has to wait until the swelling subsides before an accurate MRI can be taken. He's out for at least one month, maybe more. David Nelson suffered a torn ACL and has been lost for the season.

T.J. Graham gets called up to take Nelson's place but he's an untested third round rookie who has more raw talent than refined skills. Graham was able to climb the depth chart in training camp. He's worth a watch just in case he catches fire and exceeds expectations.

C.J. Spiller once again waits until Jackson is out of the picture and then suddenly he looks like the second coming of O.J. Simpson. Spiller led the league with 169 rushing yards on 14 carries with one score and added two catches as well. He's undeniably fast and dangerous and for whatever reason needs Jackson out to show it. Tashard Choice moves up to be the primary backup but for now, the offense becomes the Spiller Show.

Steve Johnson (4-55) and Donald Brown (5-41) both scored against the Jets but the stats were all pedestrian last week outside of Spiller. Johnson scored once in the 2011 meeting while both he and David Nelson ended with four receptions for 66 yards.

Seemingly on cue from last year, Scott Chandler opens the year with a touchdown. Now we have to see if he disappears the rest of the year again. Chances are good.

The Bills at home won't be a push over but also should allow those better weapons of the Chiefs to be the difference in the game. A loss here and the Bills are already looking up hill this year.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 16 6 14 13 30 27
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 32 3 28 26 30 21

QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF @MIA 50100018010 ***
This is a midrange matchup for Taylor, whose cast of targets is depleted to the point where he is a tough sell in a week with only two teams on bye. The running game is the focus in Buffalo, which also hurts Taylor from a gaming perspective. Miami has allowed 20.5 points per game to the position.
RB Mike Gillislee, BUF @MIA 9012200000 **
Miami has given up chunks of yardage but only one offensive touchdown to RBs this year. Monitor McCoy's status Friday after he suffered a hamstring strain in Wednesday's practice and is reported by some to be likely out. Gillislee will be an excellent option if McCoy is called out officially.

Update: Questionable, limited for McCoy ... Gillislee should see a boost in work even if Shady plays.
WR Marquise Goodwin, BUF @MIA 002201000 **
Miami has allowed a TD catch by a receiver once every 11.6 catches, which is tied for the 10th worst ratio. Goodwin remains a tough play in fantasy, but gamers should at least consider him.
WR Justin Hunter, BUF @MIA 002300000 ***
Hunter should see more action with Robert Woods unlikely to play. The matchup makes him a worthwhile flier in deep setups.
WR Walter Powell, BUF @MIA 002300000 ***
Powell enters the rankings with Robert Woods' injury. The matchup is nice, but he has no business being in a fantasy lineup.
TE Charles Clay, BUF @MIA 005600000 ***
Clay has become a fixture in the passing game since Sammy Watkins went down. While he isn't going bonkers or anything, posting double-digit PPR points has been a common theme. Miami ranks squarely in the middle of the pack against TEs.

Update: Clay continues to be listed as questionable each week and plays through the injuries. He was limited Friday and will be a game-time decision.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF @MIA 3333 ***
Ranking near the middle of the league in fantasy points per game, Carpenter's Week 7 opponent doesn't allow many points to the position, ranking as the fifth hardest matchup. Game flow should work in Buffalo's favor and buck these statistical trends.

* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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