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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: MIN 20, IND 23 (Line: MIN by 1)

Players to watch: Coby Fleener, Kyle Rudolph

The Vikings come off a overtime win over the Jaguars and in the process did what no one thought possible - they made Blaine Gabbert look like a real quarterback. Oh, and Adrian Peterson played. The Colts come off a a solid loss in Chicago but Andrew Luck's debut was not all bad and the Colts at home have a real chance to win this coin flipper. This will be one of the easier games this year for the Colts but that is hardly a lock. But both teams are trying to find themselves and the Colts at home should squeak this out against the 2-6 road team from last year.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET -----
2 @IND ----- 11 BYE -----
3 SF ----- 12 @CHI -----
4 @DET ----- 13 @GB -----
5 TEN ----- 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS ----- 15 @STL -----
7 ARI ----- 16 @HOU -----
8 TB ----- 17 GB -----
9 @SEA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel 200,1
QB Christian Ponder 200,1
RB Adrian Peterson 90,1 2-10
WR Greg Jennings
TE Kyle Rudolph 5-50
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Credit special teams with keeping the Vikes in the game and eventually winning in overtime. The biggest news was Adrian Peterson returning after only nine months removed from his knee injury. Peterson ran for 84 yards on 17 carries and scorer twice. Peterson has always been a north-south sort of runner and his straight line power and speed seemed back to form. He'll get better incrementally as the season progresses but his start exceeds all expectations and prognosis. Tony Gerhart still had six runs but only gained 18 yards. Peterson has already reclaimed his spot and made Gerhart remain just a footnote.

Christian Ponder passed for 270 yards last week but had no scores. So far in his brief career he's been less effective away from home where he had four touchdowns over six away games. This will be a good test for Ponder against a secondary that just gave up 333 yards to Jay Cutler.

Percy Harvin remains the stud here but no other wideout has stepped up last year or in the first game of the year. Michael Jenkins (3-45) and Devin Aromashodu (3-61) factor in but neither do much to lessen the focus of the defense on Harvin. The one other receiver that does matter may end up to be tight end Kyle Rudolph who enters his second season as the best college tight end from 2011. Rudolph was second to only Harvin with five catches for 67 yards versus the Jaguars. This offense needs him to break out this year and so far the signs are starting to grow.

The Colts biggest advantage is just that they are home and the Vikings are on the road. This game is going to come down to a battle of quarterbacks and either Ponder steps up and plays better or Luck just does as well as last week with fewer turnovers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 27 9 21 20 4 23
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 25 31 31 1 23 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Christian Ponder, MIN GB 20000019001 ***
Ponder hasn't topped 200 yards since Week 10 and has three passing TDs in the last five games. He's all about managing the game, and fantasy teams don't need to have the game managed for them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN GB 12015300000 ***
Peterson is playing through an abdomen injury... but if he can rush for 1,800 yards in the year since having his knee surgically repaired, what's another 100 in a "win and you're in" game? There's also a reasonable chance AD reprises the 210 he dropped on Green Bay in the earlier meeting, which would give him the NFL single-season rushing record. After all he's accomplished to this point, now is not the time to start betting against him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Jennings, MIN GB 004501000 ***
Jennings posted 4-46 in the earlier meeting with Minnesota, his first game back after an extended injury absence. He scored last week and now has a month of games under his belt. Add in Jordy Nelson's questionable status and Randall Cobb's bum ankle and Jennings could be back atop the Packers' passing game pecking order this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN GB 003400000 ***
Wright's 53 yards last week was the most by a Minnesota wideout since his 62 yard outburst back in Week 10. So if you're forced to start a Vikings wide receiver, he's the best of a sorry lot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jerome Simpson, MIN GB 002300000 ***
Simpson is an occasional contributor in the passing game, but nowhere near worthy of a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN GB 004401000 ***
Rudolph scored last week and also scored in the earlier meeting with the Packers. His yardage of late hasn't been enough to justify a fantasy start--to be expected when a big day for your passing game means triple-digit yardage--but his nine touchdowns have him in range of the Vikings' team record for tight ends. Not that they'll be preoccupied with the playoff berth or another record, but it does increase the likelihood Rudy finds the end zone again this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN GB 3211 ***
The Pro Bowler missed his only attempt in the earlier meeting with Green Bay, but with eight treys in the past two games and a big leg that's already netted him the rookie record for 50-yard field goals he's tough to bet against.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN ----- 11 @NE -----
3 JAC ----- 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB ----- 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 300,2
RB Donald Brown 60
WR Austin Collie 2-20
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 5-60,1
WR Reggie Wayne 8-110,1
TE Coby Fleener 6-60,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The opener was predictably painful but the loss in Chicago was not unexpected and did have some positives from it. Andrew Luck looked very credible throwing for 309 yards and one score in his first NFL start and his three interceptions will get better. Luck faced an aggressive Bears defense primed to play the rookie but this week the Vikings bring in a secondary that was exploited by Blaine Gabbert. That is not a resume builder for the secondary and no doubt where the Colts focus will be.

Luck threw 18 passes to Reggie Wayne who caught nine of them for 135 yards. For some perspective, understand that Wayne never had nine catches or 135 yards in any game last year. That is a positive. Luck also used Donnie Avery (3-37, TD) for eight pass attempts. But the second best receiver on the team proved to be his old college buddy Coby Fleener who caught six passes for 82 yards. For some perspective, understand that Fleener only once had more than four catches in any game during his four years at Stanford. That is a positive.

The receivers will likely evolve as the season progresses but at least Luck hit the ground passing. Now he just needs to limit the catches to his own team mates.

Donald Brown scored once and gained 48 yards on nine carries as the primary back. Vick Ballard turned four runs into only six yards at the end of the game. Brown was mostly met at the line but did manage an 18 yard run when he scored in the second quarter.

The Vikings weak secondary carries over from last year and now faces Luck on the road instead of Gabbert at Minny. The game will revolve around what Luck can accomplish.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 21 27 9 10 31 9
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 22 19 16 22 17 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND HOU 20000028022 ***
Luck has the double task of extending his own rookie passing record and improving the Colts' playoff seed. He's hovered around 200 yards each of the past three games, but he did throw two TDs against the Texans a couple weeks back. Luck averaged around 280 passing yards per game at home, and with a little something still left to play for look for him to keep chucking.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Vick Ballard, IND HOU 8003200000 ***
Ballard banged out 105 yards against the Texans a couple weeks back--yes, the same Texans' D that held Adrian Peterson in check last week. With playoff seeding on the line, expect a better effort from Houston's run defense--and more of the offensive load to fall on Andrew Luck and the passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND HOU 006801000 ***
Houston held Wayne in check a couple weeks back, but a dozen targets and a touchdown last week against the Chiefs provides reassurance that he's still Andrew Luck's go-to guy. This game still has meaning, so Wayne won't be ignored.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND HOU 004600000 ***
Hilton was Indy's leading receiver in the previous meeting with Houston, but he's reliant on a home run ball and as such difficult to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, IND HOU 003300000 **
with Matt Leinart last week, DHB only gained 2-31. Throw in Terrelle Pryor this week and no reason to touch any Raiders receiver.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND HOU 004401000 ***
The Texans have given up four TE TDs in the past three games, including one to Allen two weeks back. And with Coby Fleener still a non-factor, Allen isn't a bad bet to reprise his production from a couple weeks ago.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND HOU 2122 ***
Vinny has multiple treys in each of his last three at home, and with Indy still looking to improve its playoff lot he should get plenty of chances to swing the leg this week.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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