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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, MIA 17 (Line: OAK by 2)

Players to watch: Brandon Meyers, Denarius Moore

Players Updated: Denarius Moore. (Notable - Jacoby Ford is out and appears likely to land on IR)

The Raiders come off a very painful loss to the Chargers in a game where the offense struggled and the long snapping became a study in the randomness of nature. WIth a chance to get back a few receivers and knowing that the Raiders were actually much better in road games last year (5-3), this could be a better game than last Monday suggested. The Dolphins return home after their spanking in Houston but not only did their offense struggle, but the defense was sliced up as well. This is a coin flip game but amazingly could be won by the Raiders. The Fins with Tannehill at the helm just look like they need a lot more time.

The Raiders lost 14-34 in Miami last year.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA ----- 11 NO -----
3 PIT ----- 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN ----- 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL ----- 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 240,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 70,1 4-30
RB Darren McFadden 50 6-60
WR James Jones 5-70,1
WR Denarius Moore 4-80,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders struggled last week with a rushing game that was shut down by the Chargers and passing that became almost entirely dump offs to Darren McFadden or the tight end Brandon Meyer. With Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore out, the secondary widely attached themselves to Darrius Heyward-Bey who only managed three receptions for 43 yards.

Rod Streater got the start thanks to the other injuries and ended with ten targets for for catches and 27 yards including the one touchdown pass at the end of the game. With Heyward-Bey covered, Carson Palmer tried to find Streater but usually ended up settling for Brandon Meyer who had five receptions for 65 yards. The passing game really became Palmer looking downfield, seeing nothing before the rush was about to consume him and then throwing 18 times to Darren McFadden who ended with 13 catches for 86 yards and a nice showing for those owners in reception point leagues.

Bottom line was the Raiders offense could not run and the passing sorely missed Ford the field stretcher and Moore the most feared among the bunch. Moore has been out with a hamstring strain but returned to some practice last week. He is expected to play this week though Ford may not play yet again. A better passing game will help the rushing effort.

The Dolphins defense is decent against the run and held Arian Foster to only 79 yards on 26 carries though he scored twice. This is not likely to be a very high scoring game and in the end probably comes down to mistakes. That should affect the rookie Tannehill more than the Raiders. This week the offense needs to look in more synch and get Moore back into the lineup.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 5 24 15 21 32
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 11 26 11 16 27 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK HOU 0000019001 ***
Carr was efficient if not effusive in his NFL debut, pairing pedestrian yardage with a couple touchdown tosses. The Texans bent but didn't break against RG3 in their opener, and a confluence of those trends here suggests keeping Carr on the fantasy sidelines for a bit more seasoning.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren McFadden, OAK HOU 6011100000 **
In Oakland's 2013 meeting with the Texans Rashad Jennings went off for 150 yards and a TD while McFadden--shockingly--sat out with an injury. The shoe may be on the other foot this time around, with Maurice Jones-Drew nursing a hand issue and McFadden the possible beneficiary. Stay tuned; we could have a Run DMC sighting!
Update: With MJD likely to miss this tilt, McFadden would move to the fore of the Oakland backfield. Enjoy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, OAK HOU 400000000 **
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK HOU 00000000 **
MJD is no stranger to the Texans; in fact, he took them for 144 combo yards and a TD in the front end of last season's JAX/HOU series, then followed up with 123 yards from scrimmage in the rematch. He appears to be the lead dog in Oakland's current backfield committee, though after hand surgery on Monday his status for Sunday is uncertain. If he goes he's an adequate fantasy play, but Darren McFadden looms.
Update: MJD is expected to miss the Raiders' Week 2 matchup with Houston following a hand procedure--but not on a broken bone, according to Jones-Drew. Darren McFadden and Marcel Reese will pick up the slack in MJD's absence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK HOU 003300000 ***
The Raiders' big offseason signing did find the end zone last week, though three targets seems a bit light for the guy they brought in to be their WR1. Until we see more from Derek Carr there's not much to like fantasy-wise about the Oakland passing game, at least in a bankable fantasy sense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Denarius Moore, OAK HOU 003200000 ***
Moore is still on the Raiders roster, and he did score in last season's meeting with the Texans. But at this juncture he's taking a back seat to both James Jones and Denarius Moore, and Derek Carr has yet to demonstrate he can feed multiple fantasy mouths.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK HOU 003300000 ***
Rivera had the best game of his career the last time he faced the Texans; in fact, his 5-54-1 may have single-handedly been responsible for the regime change in Houston. Rivera has a total of 18 catches for 188 yards and two TDs in the seven games since dismantling the Texans, including 3-31 in his first game with Derek Carr, so he's not exactly a bankable fantasy commodity.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK HOU 3311 ***
You gotta love SeaBass. You don't gotta start SeaBass on your fantasy team, however.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK ----- 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 220,1
WR Brandon Gibson 3-40
WR Brian Hartline 4-60
WR Mike Wallace 4-70,1

Pregame Notes: It is a rebuilding year in Miami and week one made that painfully obvious with little more than Reggie Bush to drive the offense down the field. The debut of Ryan Tannehill produced 219 passing yards and three interceptions. He was also sacked three times and was unable to have any receiver gain more than 50 yards in the game. The passing game is going to be a work in process for a while.

Reggie Bush did turn in a very respectable 69 yards on 14 carries and added 46 more yards on six receptions. That dwarfed all other offensive players and Bush only saw three carries go to another back. He's destined to be a fulltime back with minimal interference at least unless he is injured. He's the best weapon that they have and the only one that carries any fantasy value so far.

The receivers who operate in a scheme described as "needing no true #1" lived up to that billing. Brian Hartline (3-50) and Davone Bess (5-45) were the starters and yet neither played like a "#1". This is a passing offense that will be sluggish while Tannehill assumedly improves. Tannehill does know the offense which is a plus but there is no SMU, Idaho or Iowa State on the schedule this time.

The positive sign here - and like the only one - is that Tannehill is using Bush as a receiver and thereby giving the world at least one player with fantasy significance. Playing at home should help and the Raiders are bringing in their own little slice of dysfunction themselves, but this looks like another long year for the Fins.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 11 28 29 28 13
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 10 18 6 10 32 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA @BUF 0000024021 ***
Tannehill has never topped 200 yards in four career outings against the Bills, and five of the six TDs he's scored against them have come in South Beach. Fresh off 178 yards against the Patriots--another divisional foe, and one he's had more success against than the Bills--it's tough to pencil him in for anything more than pedestrian yardage; cross your fingers that a touchdown or two salvage his fantasy day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knowshon Moreno, MIA @BUF 7002200000 ***
The Bills have allowed 100-yard rushers in three of their last five games--and in one of the other two held the Dolphins to a total of 14 rushing yards. That was pre-Moreno, of course, and given the success the Phins had on the ground last week you have to like their chances of producing in Buffalo. Moreno emerging as the lead dog in this committee last week makes him the better fantasy play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA @BUF 4004300000 ***
Miller has lost ground to Knowshon Moreno in the backfield battle, but he still appears to be the primary RB pass-catcher; against a defense that just gave up 87 receiving yards to Matt Forte, that's enough to at least keep Miller on the fantasy radar.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA @BUF 008701000 ****
Wallace was targeted 21 times in two games against the Bills last year, catching nine for 114 yards. He's being moved around more this season and could slide into the spot that generated two TDs for Brandon Gibson in last season's series--or at least the spot that generated a TD for Brandon Marshall last week. Maybe if he changed his name to Brandon...
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Hartline, MIA @BUF 004500000 ***
Hartline was a distant WR2 to Mike Wallace last week, targeted four times compared to 11 for Wallace. This offense doesn't project to provide an abundance of passing yardage, and with Wallace taking more than his share there's not nearly enough to make Harline fantasy relevant this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA @BUF 005601000 ****
Clay scored on limited looks against the Bills last season, and he wasn't much more involved in Week 1--to the point that asking him to match Martellus Bennett's 8-70-1 (on 10 targets) from last week is aggressive at best, foolhardy at worst.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA @BUF 3322 ***
Sturgis has never kicked a field goal against the Bills as a member of the Dolphins--he missed his lone attempt in the two-game set last year--but coming off a four field goal game last week it's about time he got on the board.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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