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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, MIA 17 (Line: OAK by 2)

Players to watch: Brandon Meyers, Denarius Moore

Players Updated: Denarius Moore. (Notable - Jacoby Ford is out and appears likely to land on IR)

The Raiders come off a very painful loss to the Chargers in a game where the offense struggled and the long snapping became a study in the randomness of nature. WIth a chance to get back a few receivers and knowing that the Raiders were actually much better in road games last year (5-3), this could be a better game than last Monday suggested. The Dolphins return home after their spanking in Houston but not only did their offense struggle, but the defense was sliced up as well. This is a coin flip game but amazingly could be won by the Raiders. The Fins with Tannehill at the helm just look like they need a lot more time.

The Raiders lost 14-34 in Miami last year.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA ----- 11 NO -----
3 PIT ----- 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN ----- 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL ----- 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Michael Crabtree 5-70
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders struggled last week with a rushing game that was shut down by the Chargers and passing that became almost entirely dump offs to Darren McFadden or the tight end Brandon Meyer. With Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore out, the secondary widely attached themselves to Darrius Heyward-Bey who only managed three receptions for 43 yards.

Rod Streater got the start thanks to the other injuries and ended with ten targets for for catches and 27 yards including the one touchdown pass at the end of the game. With Heyward-Bey covered, Carson Palmer tried to find Streater but usually ended up settling for Brandon Meyer who had five receptions for 65 yards. The passing game really became Palmer looking downfield, seeing nothing before the rush was about to consume him and then throwing 18 times to Darren McFadden who ended with 13 catches for 86 yards and a nice showing for those owners in reception point leagues.

Bottom line was the Raiders offense could not run and the passing sorely missed Ford the field stretcher and Moore the most feared among the bunch. Moore has been out with a hamstring strain but returned to some practice last week. He is expected to play this week though Ford may not play yet again. A better passing game will help the rushing effort.

The Dolphins defense is decent against the run and held Arian Foster to only 79 yards on 26 carries though he scored twice. This is not likely to be a very high scoring game and in the end probably comes down to mistakes. That should affect the rookie Tannehill more than the Raiders. This week the offense needs to look in more synch and get Moore back into the lineup.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 5 24 15 21 32
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 11 26 11 16 27 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @KC 0000026022 ***
Traveling to KC on a short week is never ideal, but Carr gets fantasy's third worst defense of quarterbacks. The position has averaged the highest yards-per-catch figure and third most yards per game in the last five weeks when facing KC. Carr posted a 225-1-1 line in Week 6 against the Chiefs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, OAK @KC 6003300000 ***
Unless he scores, Murray is hardly reliable for fantasy points. The Chiefs are more beatable through the air, and that's how Oakland's offense butters its bread. Murray is facing the eighth hardest matchup of the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @KC 2001100000 ***
Richard sees limited work but does almost nothing with it. He has no fantasy worth in Week 14.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @KC 006901000 ***
Cooper saw far more work in the last matchup with the Chiefs, as Marcus Peters followed Michael Crabtree around. The Raiders are playing as well as anyone, and KC has given up the second most fantasy points per contest in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @KC 003401000 ***
The matchup is ideal if you want to take a chance, but the last time these two played, Roberts caught only three of his six looks for just 29 yards. He has no value without finding the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK @KC 005600000 ***
Marcus Peters eliminated Crabtree (2-10-0) in Week 6, so consider this projection to be on the optimistic side. Oakland has played extremely well on the road, but Arrowhead is a different demon. KC, overall, is the second worst defense of WRs in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clive Walford, OAK @KC 003300000 ***
Oakland doesn't consistently utilize the position enough to seriously consider Walford in any fantasy league.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @KC 2222 ***
KC has allowed the ninth most fantasy points, largely based on giving up the eighth highest average of field goal per game since Week 8.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK ----- 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 220,1

Pregame Notes: It is a rebuilding year in Miami and week one made that painfully obvious with little more than Reggie Bush to drive the offense down the field. The debut of Ryan Tannehill produced 219 passing yards and three interceptions. He was also sacked three times and was unable to have any receiver gain more than 50 yards in the game. The passing game is going to be a work in process for a while.

Reggie Bush did turn in a very respectable 69 yards on 14 carries and added 46 more yards on six receptions. That dwarfed all other offensive players and Bush only saw three carries go to another back. He's destined to be a fulltime back with minimal interference at least unless he is injured. He's the best weapon that they have and the only one that carries any fantasy value so far.

The receivers who operate in a scheme described as "needing no true #1" lived up to that billing. Brian Hartline (3-50) and Davone Bess (5-45) were the starters and yet neither played like a "#1". This is a passing offense that will be sluggish while Tannehill assumedly improves. Tannehill does know the offense which is a plus but there is no SMU, Idaho or Iowa State on the schedule this time.

The positive sign here - and like the only one - is that Tannehill is using Bush as a receiver and thereby giving the world at least one player with fantasy significance. Playing at home should help and the Raiders are bringing in their own little slice of dysfunction themselves, but this looks like another long year for the Fins.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 11 28 29 28 13
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 10 18 6 10 32 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA ARI 10000019010 ***
Quarterbacks have averaged only 229.8 yards and 1.25 TD passes per contest against Arizona in the last four games. Tannehill is too inconsistent to play in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA ARI 10021100000 ***
Every 20.3 rushing attempts over the last five weeks have resulted in a touchdown when facing Arizona. Other than scoring, this is a tough matchup for yards and receptions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA ARI 003501000 ***
Parker faces fantasy's seventh softest defense of wideouts over the last five weeks of data -- a group that may not have star cornerback Patrick Peterson or FS Tyrann Mathieu. The athletic receiver has found a way in the past month and a half, so gamers should view Parker as quality WR3.

Update: Parker is questionable but fully practiced and should be fine.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA ARI 005500000 ***
Landry faces a defense that has given up the fifth most catches per game and sixth highest yardage average over the last five. He has solid PPR appeal in conventional formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA ARI 001200000 ***
Stills has a tough matchup for scoring touchdowns, and without one, his worth is irredeemable for gamers.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA ARI 2233 ***
Franks could be a sly fantasy play against Arizona, but he obviously presents risk. The Cards have allowed the fourth highest average of combined kicking chances over the past five weeks.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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