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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, MIA 17 (Line: OAK by 2)

Players to watch: Brandon Meyers, Denarius Moore

Players Updated: Denarius Moore. (Notable - Jacoby Ford is out and appears likely to land on IR)

The Raiders come off a very painful loss to the Chargers in a game where the offense struggled and the long snapping became a study in the randomness of nature. WIth a chance to get back a few receivers and knowing that the Raiders were actually much better in road games last year (5-3), this could be a better game than last Monday suggested. The Dolphins return home after their spanking in Houston but not only did their offense struggle, but the defense was sliced up as well. This is a coin flip game but amazingly could be won by the Raiders. The Fins with Tannehill at the helm just look like they need a lot more time.

The Raiders lost 14-34 in Miami last year.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA ----- 11 NO -----
3 PIT ----- 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN ----- 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL ----- 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 100,1 2-10
WR Michael Crabtree 5-70
TE Jared Cook 5-50,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders struggled last week with a rushing game that was shut down by the Chargers and passing that became almost entirely dump offs to Darren McFadden or the tight end Brandon Meyer. With Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore out, the secondary widely attached themselves to Darrius Heyward-Bey who only managed three receptions for 43 yards.

Rod Streater got the start thanks to the other injuries and ended with ten targets for for catches and 27 yards including the one touchdown pass at the end of the game. With Heyward-Bey covered, Carson Palmer tried to find Streater but usually ended up settling for Brandon Meyer who had five receptions for 65 yards. The passing game really became Palmer looking downfield, seeing nothing before the rush was about to consume him and then throwing 18 times to Darren McFadden who ended with 13 catches for 86 yards and a nice showing for those owners in reception point leagues.

Bottom line was the Raiders offense could not run and the passing sorely missed Ford the field stretcher and Moore the most feared among the bunch. Moore has been out with a hamstring strain but returned to some practice last week. He is expected to play this week though Ford may not play yet again. A better passing game will help the rushing effort.

The Dolphins defense is decent against the run and held Arian Foster to only 79 yards on 26 carries though he scored twice. This is not likely to be a very high scoring game and in the end probably comes down to mistakes. That should affect the rookie Tannehill more than the Raiders. This week the offense needs to look in more synch and get Moore back into the lineup.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 5 24 15 21 32
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 11 26 11 16 27 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB EJ Manuel, OAK @DEN 10000020010 ***
Manuel will start over Tyrod Taylor in what interim head coach Anthony Lynn called a "business decision." Only a trio of teams have yielded more points per game to quarterbacks in the past five weeks. For what its worth, Taylor lit up the Jets all the way back in Week 2, tossing three TD passes and topping out at 297 yards through the air.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @DEN 3002100000 *
Richard posted 72 offensive yards in the last meeting and has seen a fair amount of work of late. The Raiders like to use him in passing situations, which naturally lends to more value in PPR. Denver enters the week as a bottom-seven matchup for PPR backs, however.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeAndre Washington, OAK @DEN 3001100000 *
Washington may be tempting to play as a high-risk flier, but the matchup isn't worth it. Denver has regrouped against running backs and is the seventh worst opponent for the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @DEN 003400000 *
Receivers have posted the worst figures in the NFL against Denver in yardage, receptions, touchdown efficiency, and fantasy points per game since Week 11. No Derek Carr. In Denver. It doesn't get much nastier than that.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, OAK @DEN 003300000 ***
Update: Patterson should have a larger role with Stefon Diggs unlikely to play. He is a fringe WR3 or flex in deep leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK @DEN 003300000 ***
Denver should not have any problem holding the Matt McGloin-led Raiders in check. This is overwhelmingly the worst matchup a receiver can find in Week 17.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @DEN 002300000 ***
No Derek Carr, on the road, against fantasy's worst defensive matchup ... no thanks. Keep Roberts in reserve.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK @DEN 005601000 ***
The Lions have given up 31 catches to tight ends in the last five games, but only one has scored. Detroit cannot guard everyone effectively. Cook wasn't a factor in the earlier meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clive Walford, OAK @DEN 002200000 ***
Matt McGloin could rely on Walford some, but it isn't worth paying the price to find out. Denver has been solid versus tight ends more often than not this season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @DEN 2100 ***
Jan-O gets the 11th best field goal matchup but 22nd best extra point opponent in Week 17. So much comes down to how well Matt McGloin can move the ball replacing Derek Carr.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK ----- 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 220,1
TE Anthony Fasano 3-30

Pregame Notes: It is a rebuilding year in Miami and week one made that painfully obvious with little more than Reggie Bush to drive the offense down the field. The debut of Ryan Tannehill produced 219 passing yards and three interceptions. He was also sacked three times and was unable to have any receiver gain more than 50 yards in the game. The passing game is going to be a work in process for a while.

Reggie Bush did turn in a very respectable 69 yards on 14 carries and added 46 more yards on six receptions. That dwarfed all other offensive players and Bush only saw three carries go to another back. He's destined to be a fulltime back with minimal interference at least unless he is injured. He's the best weapon that they have and the only one that carries any fantasy value so far.

The receivers who operate in a scheme described as "needing no true #1" lived up to that billing. Brian Hartline (3-50) and Davone Bess (5-45) were the starters and yet neither played like a "#1". This is a passing offense that will be sluggish while Tannehill assumedly improves. Tannehill does know the offense which is a plus but there is no SMU, Idaho or Iowa State on the schedule this time.

The positive sign here - and like the only one - is that Tannehill is using Bush as a receiver and thereby giving the world at least one player with fantasy significance. Playing at home should help and the Raiders are bringing in their own little slice of dysfunction themselves, but this looks like another long year for the Fins.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 11 28 29 28 13
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 10 18 6 10 32 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Moore, MIA NE 0000022011 ***
This is the second worst matchup a quarterback will find in Week 17 when using data from the past five games. New England has allowed averages of a TD and only 15.9 fantasy points per outing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA NE 3011100000 ***
Drake is talented but sees limited work. New England isn't a great matchup, but maybe his change-of-pace nature can overcome the hurdle.

Update: Drake could see a few more utilization with Jay Ajayi listed as questionable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA NE 4001100000 ***
New England has dominated running backs of late, albeit mostly inferior competition. This is the second worst matchup using data from the last five games. Only one of the last 118 touches by a running back has scored on the Pats.

Update: Ajayi is questionable but practiced in full Friday and should be active.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA NE 001301000 ***
New England has turned it around against wideouts of late. Stills is a weekly TD flier play in non-PPR formats, but gamers considering him must be willing to accept a paltry performance when taking the risk.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA NE 005600000 ***
Matt Moore is under center again, and Parker has done fine with the quarterback switch. The Patriots gave up 106 yards on eight catches to Parker in Week 2, but the position has scored only three times in the last five games versus this defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NE 004500000 ***
The Patriots have given up only three TDs in the past five games to receivers. Landry had a big PPR day in Week 2 by catching 10 of 13 targets for 137 yards from Ryan Tannehill. Matt Moore gets a crack at the visiting Pats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA NE 2222 ***
Four teams have been worse against the position than New England in the last five weeks. The Patriots have given up only five XPAs and 7-for-10 from long range.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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