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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, MIA 17 (Line: OAK by 2)

Players to watch: Brandon Meyers, Denarius Moore

Players Updated: Denarius Moore. (Notable - Jacoby Ford is out and appears likely to land on IR)

The Raiders come off a very painful loss to the Chargers in a game where the offense struggled and the long snapping became a study in the randomness of nature. WIth a chance to get back a few receivers and knowing that the Raiders were actually much better in road games last year (5-3), this could be a better game than last Monday suggested. The Dolphins return home after their spanking in Houston but not only did their offense struggle, but the defense was sliced up as well. This is a coin flip game but amazingly could be won by the Raiders. The Fins with Tannehill at the helm just look like they need a lot more time.

The Raiders lost 14-34 in Miami last year.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA ----- 11 NO -----
3 PIT ----- 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN ----- 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL ----- 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Michael Crabtree 5-70
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders struggled last week with a rushing game that was shut down by the Chargers and passing that became almost entirely dump offs to Darren McFadden or the tight end Brandon Meyer. With Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore out, the secondary widely attached themselves to Darrius Heyward-Bey who only managed three receptions for 43 yards.

Rod Streater got the start thanks to the other injuries and ended with ten targets for for catches and 27 yards including the one touchdown pass at the end of the game. With Heyward-Bey covered, Carson Palmer tried to find Streater but usually ended up settling for Brandon Meyer who had five receptions for 65 yards. The passing game really became Palmer looking downfield, seeing nothing before the rush was about to consume him and then throwing 18 times to Darren McFadden who ended with 13 catches for 86 yards and a nice showing for those owners in reception point leagues.

Bottom line was the Raiders offense could not run and the passing sorely missed Ford the field stretcher and Moore the most feared among the bunch. Moore has been out with a hamstring strain but returned to some practice last week. He is expected to play this week though Ford may not play yet again. A better passing game will help the rushing effort.

The Dolphins defense is decent against the run and held Arian Foster to only 79 yards on 26 carries though he scored twice. This is not likely to be a very high scoring game and in the end probably comes down to mistakes. That should affect the rookie Tannehill more than the Raiders. This week the offense needs to look in more synch and get Moore back into the lineup.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 5 24 15 21 32
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 11 26 11 16 27 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @BAL 0000025011 ***
Baltimore rates as the fifth strongest defense of fantasy quarterbacks, actually giving up fewer touchdowns than passes intercepted. Carr could be in for a sluggish fantasy day, but he must be started by owners without a clearer path to more points.

Update: Oakland will be without two starting linemen and possibly a third.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, OAK @BAL 5011100000 **
Seven teams have been harder on RBs than Baltimore. Murray has lost touches to Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington each week. Keep him in your lineup, but he'll need to score to exceed flex expectations.

Update: Oakland will be without two starting linemen and possibly a third.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK @BAL 006801000 ***
Crabtree was greatly undervalued on draft day in most leagues, and he emerged as a strong fantasy weapon with all of the attention paid to Amari Cooper. Baltimore has given up four scores in three games to wideouts, so there's hope for another quality game from the former 49er.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @BAL 005700000 ***
Baltimore's defense as allowed four touchdowns to receivers but only 35 catches for 367 yards to rank among the 10 hardest matchups. Cooper can't buy a touchdown over his past 10 games, so keep him in PPR lineups and hope for the best. He's now a fringe play in standard scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @BAL 002300000 ***
Roberts could sneak into the end zone again if Cooper and Crabtree are blanketed, but banking on it is difficult against the seventh best defense of receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clive Walford, OAK @BAL 003300000 ***
Baltimore hasn't allowed a touchdown to the position yet on the only 10 receptions snared by tight ends. Walford has upside and can exploit single LB and safety coverage better than most. Play him only if you must.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @BAL 1122 ***
Baltimore has been the strongest team against kickers, giving up only one field goal and five extra points.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK ----- 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 220,1
RB Arian Foster 80,1 4-40

Pregame Notes: It is a rebuilding year in Miami and week one made that painfully obvious with little more than Reggie Bush to drive the offense down the field. The debut of Ryan Tannehill produced 219 passing yards and three interceptions. He was also sacked three times and was unable to have any receiver gain more than 50 yards in the game. The passing game is going to be a work in process for a while.

Reggie Bush did turn in a very respectable 69 yards on 14 carries and added 46 more yards on six receptions. That dwarfed all other offensive players and Bush only saw three carries go to another back. He's destined to be a fulltime back with minimal interference at least unless he is injured. He's the best weapon that they have and the only one that carries any fantasy value so far.

The receivers who operate in a scheme described as "needing no true #1" lived up to that billing. Brian Hartline (3-50) and Davone Bess (5-45) were the starters and yet neither played like a "#1". This is a passing offense that will be sluggish while Tannehill assumedly improves. Tannehill does know the offense which is a plus but there is no SMU, Idaho or Iowa State on the schedule this time.

The positive sign here - and like the only one - is that Tannehill is using Bush as a receiver and thereby giving the world at least one player with fantasy significance. Playing at home should help and the Raiders are bringing in their own little slice of dysfunction themselves, but this looks like another long year for the Fins.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 11 28 29 28 13
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 10 18 6 10 32 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA @CIN 0000031022 ***
There is some bad that has to be accepted with Tannehill's good, and this week should be no different. Cincinnati has permitted the five most fantasy points to quarterbacks, mainly because of the nine touchdowns allowed in three games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA @CIN 4002100000 ***
Drake is the de facto starter after Arian Foster went down. The rookie is explosive in the open field be needs to run with more patience to make the most of his touches -- carries that are shared with Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams. Cincy has yielded 21.5 PPR points to RBs, but only one back has run into the end zone with a football in his hands.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA @CIN 2002200000 ***
Ajayi was on the field for 27 percent of the snaps in Week 3, with Isaiah Pead seeing 18 and Damien Williams seeing 16 behind Kenyan Drake's 40. The Bengals offer a midrange matchup, so this could go either way. Safely, Ajayi doesn't figure see the field enough to justify a non-DFS play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @CIN 0081001000 ***
Landry is an obvious PPR play every week and has another fine matchup on his hands. He is listed as questionable with a shoulder, but all signs point to him playing. The Dolphins have given up the third most touchdown grabs to the position, ultimately registering as the 11th most generous matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA @CIN 005801000 ***
When he's on the field, Parker is dynamite. The second-year receiver is a dangerous weapon who has a knack for finding the end zone. Toss him into all lineups this week against the 11th easiest WR matchup in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA @CIN 003500000 ***
The matchup is right (11th easiest) if you want to take a DFS flier or need to fill a hole because of a bye week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dion Sims, MIA @CIN 002300000 ***
Sims should be the starting tight end with Jordan Cameron banged up, but that's not enough to warrant a fantasy play. Furthermore, he's questionable, even though Sims practiced in full. Cincy has given up three touchdowns on only nine catches, so take the chance if you're feeling lucky.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA @CIN 2222 ***
Franks has only four attempts on the year (27th) and faces a top-12 unit against fantasy feet.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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