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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, MIA 17 (Line: OAK by 2)

Players to watch: Brandon Meyers, Denarius Moore

Players Updated: Denarius Moore. (Notable - Jacoby Ford is out and appears likely to land on IR)

The Raiders come off a very painful loss to the Chargers in a game where the offense struggled and the long snapping became a study in the randomness of nature. WIth a chance to get back a few receivers and knowing that the Raiders were actually much better in road games last year (5-3), this could be a better game than last Monday suggested. The Dolphins return home after their spanking in Houston but not only did their offense struggle, but the defense was sliced up as well. This is a coin flip game but amazingly could be won by the Raiders. The Fins with Tannehill at the helm just look like they need a lot more time.

The Raiders lost 14-34 in Miami last year.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA ----- 11 NO -----
3 PIT ----- 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN ----- 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL ----- 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 240,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 70,1 4-30
RB Darren McFadden 50 6-60
WR James Jones 5-70,1
WR Denarius Moore 4-80,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders struggled last week with a rushing game that was shut down by the Chargers and passing that became almost entirely dump offs to Darren McFadden or the tight end Brandon Meyer. With Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore out, the secondary widely attached themselves to Darrius Heyward-Bey who only managed three receptions for 43 yards.

Rod Streater got the start thanks to the other injuries and ended with ten targets for for catches and 27 yards including the one touchdown pass at the end of the game. With Heyward-Bey covered, Carson Palmer tried to find Streater but usually ended up settling for Brandon Meyer who had five receptions for 65 yards. The passing game really became Palmer looking downfield, seeing nothing before the rush was about to consume him and then throwing 18 times to Darren McFadden who ended with 13 catches for 86 yards and a nice showing for those owners in reception point leagues.

Bottom line was the Raiders offense could not run and the passing sorely missed Ford the field stretcher and Moore the most feared among the bunch. Moore has been out with a hamstring strain but returned to some practice last week. He is expected to play this week though Ford may not play yet again. A better passing game will help the rushing effort.

The Dolphins defense is decent against the run and held Arian Foster to only 79 yards on 26 carries though he scored twice. This is not likely to be a very high scoring game and in the end probably comes down to mistakes. That should affect the rookie Tannehill more than the Raiders. This week the offense needs to look in more synch and get Moore back into the lineup.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 5 24 15 21 32
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 11 26 11 16 27 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Terrelle Pryor, OAK DEN 40000024012 *
Pryor last started in Week 10, when he threw for 122 yards and no scores. However, with Matt McGloin struggling the Raiders will go back to Pryor for the season finale. He tossed for 281 yards and a score in the earlier meeting with Denver, and he's always a threat with his feet so there's some fantasy upside to his game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Schaub, OAK DEN 0000012001 *
Schaub is one of only three quarterbacks to take the Titans for multiple touchdown tosses this season; he turned the trip as part of a 298 & 3 outing back in Week 2. That's also the second-most passing yardage allowed by the Titans this season. However, it's worth noting that Schaub's last multiple touchdown outing came back in Week 4, and that the Titans have allowed three passing scores in Tennessee all season. UPDATE: If Case Keenum's sore thumb won't allow him to go, Schaub will get the start. Whee!
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK DEN 4002100000 ***
One more go-around for MJD against a defense he's traditionally killed--though with 23 yards on 13 carries in the earlier meeting, not so much this season. Indy has given up 90-plus combo yards to four straight feature backs, so there's a chance Jones-Drew goes out on top--or at least near it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK DEN 004701000 ***
Jones has been solid since returning from his injury, but having Matt Flynn at quarterback rather than Aaron Rodgers has put a damper on his numbers. It's not a shutdown matchup, but a Flynn-led passing game means Jones is an okay play rather than part of a fantasy juggernaut.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Holmes, OAK DEN 005701000 **
Holmes is emerging as a viable option in the Oakland passing game. Unfortunately, he's competing with Denarius Moore and Rod Streater for looks and the QB mantle just got passed to Terrelle Pryor, who's more of a runner than a thrower.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK DEN 003300000 ***
Rivera has scored in two of the last three and three of the last six, but the Raiders have a couple other tight ends swiping targets and the switch to Terrelle Pryor at quarterback could take a bite as well.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK DEN 2222 ***
Seabass has hit double-digits just once in the past 13 games, a stretch that kicked off with three points in Denver. No reason to bank on anything big from Janikowski here.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK ----- 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 220,1
WR Brandon Gibson 3-40
WR Brian Hartline 4-60
WR Mike Wallace 4-70,1
TE Dustin Keller

Pregame Notes: It is a rebuilding year in Miami and week one made that painfully obvious with little more than Reggie Bush to drive the offense down the field. The debut of Ryan Tannehill produced 219 passing yards and three interceptions. He was also sacked three times and was unable to have any receiver gain more than 50 yards in the game. The passing game is going to be a work in process for a while.

Reggie Bush did turn in a very respectable 69 yards on 14 carries and added 46 more yards on six receptions. That dwarfed all other offensive players and Bush only saw three carries go to another back. He's destined to be a fulltime back with minimal interference at least unless he is injured. He's the best weapon that they have and the only one that carries any fantasy value so far.

The receivers who operate in a scheme described as "needing no true #1" lived up to that billing. Brian Hartline (3-50) and Davone Bess (5-45) were the starters and yet neither played like a "#1". This is a passing offense that will be sluggish while Tannehill assumedly improves. Tannehill does know the offense which is a plus but there is no SMU, Idaho or Iowa State on the schedule this time.

The positive sign here - and like the only one - is that Tannehill is using Bush as a receiver and thereby giving the world at least one player with fantasy significance. Playing at home should help and the Raiders are bringing in their own little slice of dysfunction themselves, but this looks like another long year for the Fins.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 11 28 29 28 13
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 10 18 6 10 32 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA NYJ 20000029021 ****
Tannehill threw for 331 & 2 in last month's meeting with the Jets, and with a playoff berth on the line he's expected to bounce back form the injury (and ineptitude) that knocked him out of last week's embarrassing shutout loss in Buffalo.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knowshon Moreno, MIA NYJ 5004400000 ***
Three Broncos backs combined for 166 yards and a score in the earlier meeting with Oakland. Expect something similar this time around, with maybe a lighter load for Moreno as Denver rests him for the postseason. Still, his share of the work against an Oakland defense that's allowed 796 RB yards from scrimmage and 11 RB TDs the past month should be more than enough for him to be a fantasy helper.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Daniel Thomas, MIA NYJ 201000000 **
Thomas missed the earlier meeting with the Jets, but has two TDs and a 100-yard rushing game since. Assuming the Dolphins can shake off whatever ailed them in last week's embarrassing shutout loss to the Bills, Thomas should find room to rumble against a Jets defense that's allowed RB TDs in three straight, with two backs topping 150 combo yards in that span. UPDATE: Thomas is listed as questionable and was limited in practice Thursday and Friday. That likely reduces the share of carries he swipes from Lamar Miller.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA NYJ 5002200000 ***
After being a stout run D most of the season the Jets have given up RB TDs in each of the past three games. Just prior to that streak starting, Miller produced 85 yards from scrimmage against the Jets in Week 13. He hasn't done much since, while Daniel Thomas has scored twice and had a 100-yard rushing game. But seeing the likes of Edwin Baker get to the end zone against the Jets at least provides hope Miller can do the same.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA NYJ 007901000 ****
Wallace and Brian Hartline both scored in the earlier matchup with the Jets; both saw double-digit targets last week; and both have scored once in the three games since the last Dolphins/Jets game. With the Dolphins still clinging to a slim playoff chance, both are definitely in play against Gang Green this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Hartline, MIA NYJ 005600000 ***
Hartline and Mike Wallace both scored in the earlier matchup with the Jets; both saw double-digit targets last week; and both have scored once in the three games since the last Dolphins/Jets game. With the Dolphins still clinging to a slim playoff chance, both are definitely in play against Gang Green this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, MIA NYJ 003200000 ***
Sometimes a third receiver emerges behind Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace. It used to be Brandon Gibson, now it's Matthews, and in most cases it's a desperation fantasy play at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA NYJ 006801000 ***
The Jets have been better against tight ends the second half of the season, but they've still surrendered two 80-yard games and a touchdown to the position over the past month. Clay hit the 80 mark on them in the earlier meeting, and with the Dolphins playing for their postseason lives he's as good a bet as any to be an offensive contributor.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA NYJ 1133 ****
Sturgis has double digits in three of his last four, including three weeks back against the Jets. At home, needing a win for a hope at a playoff spot, Sturgis should have ample opportunity to get his kicks.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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