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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

Prediction: TB 17, NYG 24 (Line: NYG by 8)

Players to watch: Doug Martin, Martellus Bennett

Players Updated: Hakeem Nicks

The Buccaneers squeaked out a win over the visiting Panthers using a shockingly good defensive effort from a unit that was among the worst in 2011. The Giants remain at home after being handed a big loss to the Cowboys in the league opener last Wednesday. The Giants had 11 days to prepare for this but after facing a surprisingly good Dallas defense, the Buccaneers show up after limiting the #1 rushing team to only ten yards on 13 carries. Be an interesting game between two teams that need more definition.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG ----- 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL ----- 12 ATL -----
4 WAS ----- 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB @ NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 10 240,1
RB Doug Martin 90,1 4-30
WR Vincent Jackson 6-90,1
WR Steve Smith 2-30
WR Mike Williams 4-60
TE Dallas Clark 3-40
PK Connor Barth 1 FG 2 XP
PK Nate Kaeding 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Really? In 2011, the Panthers showed up in Tampa Bay during week 13 and then rushed for a collective 163 yards on 39 carries with four touchdowns. This year? No player gained more than five rushing yards IN TOTAL. And the best runner was the wideout Kealoha Pilares (1-5). Interdivisional games can always be odd and unlike the rest but it was a great start to the season for the Buccaneers defense.

Josh Freeman only passed for 138 yards and one score but had no turnovers and merely managed the game. The rookie Doug Martin was the difference maker with 95 yards on 24 carries and four receptions for 23 more yards. He was a stick mover and kept the drives alive. This will be a big test for him going to New York though they coughed up 131 yards to DeMarco Murray last week. The Buccaneers do not have the same passing game as the Cowboys so that's unlikely to happen but Martin looked good in his debut, unlike say Trent Richardson.

Vincent Jackson is the new toy for Freeman and he was thrown ten passes - the next best only had four. Jackson ended with just 47 yards on four catches but should improve as he and Freeman get more chemistry. The entire passing game grades out as incomplete so far since Freeman did not throw much last week. That will have to change against the Giants. Mike Williams only caught two short passes against the Panthers but one was the lone touchdown. If Jackson and Williams could meet their potential, the wideouts here could be above average.

Somewhat encouraging was that the lone pass to Dallas Clark went for a 33 yard gain. Clark has been back to health after two seasons getting injured and could really add a much needed dimension to the offense in the coming weeks. He's worth keeping an eye on since the Bucs have a pretty kind schedule this year.

The difference in this game will be how much of the defense was real last week and if Freeman can pass more and keep the opponent from stacking the line against Martin.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 29 12 31 31 12 14
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 30 11 32 8 9 14

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Freeman, TB @ATL 0000026011 ***
Riding a five-game losing streak, about all the Bucs have going for them is that Atlanta is more concerned about resting regulars for the postseason than winning this game. Expect Freeman to get the 157 yards he needs for a 4,000-yard season, and probably even a little more.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @ATL 10014300000 ***
The ROY award is out of reach, but Martin would still like to wrap up his first NFL season on a strong note. He scored twice in the earlier meeting with Atlanta, and he should see plenty of touches against a disinterested defense to pad his stat totals.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Williams, TB @ATL 005701000 ***
Whatever resources remain in the Atlanta secondary after the regulars have been benched will likely be focusing on Vincent Jackson. Williams has made a killing on similar situations all season, and he's in line to do so again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @ATL 004800000 ***
Jackson is a favored target of Josh Freeman, so with Freeman needing some yardage to crack 4K he'll continue to see his looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tiquan Underwood, TB @ATL 002300000 ***
Underwood has been Tampa Bay's third man in in the passing game, but it hasn't constituted much in the way of fantasy help. Unless Vincent Jackson and/or Mike Williams get an early and extended breather, it probably won't help here either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dallas Clark, TB @ATL 004400000 ***
Clark hasn't been a huge focus in the Tampa Bay passing game, but he's veteran enough to know that he's either auditioning for more looks next year or putting together tape to show his next prospective employer.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, TB @ATL 2122 ***
Barth might get a few additional opportunities against a disinterested Atlanta defense, but that's hardly something to hang your fantasy hat on.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB ----- 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR ----- 12 GB -----
4 @PHI ----- 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE ----- 14 NO -----
6 @SF ----- 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS ----- 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL ----- 17 PHI -----
9 PIT ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 280,2
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 80,1
RB David Wilson 20 2-20
WR Victor Cruz 6-90,1
WR Louis Murphy 2-30
WR Hakeem Nicks 5-70,1
TE Brandon Myers 2-20
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It wasn't that the Giants had a horrible game when they lost to the Cowboys. It was that all those big plays and Cowboy mistakes and good mojo just never happened. Eli Manning has historically owned the Cowboys but only managed 213 yards and one score. The wideouts were limited by the corner play of the Cowboys and so this week we need to see how much of the loss was just an improved Cowboys and how much was the natural malaise of winning yet another Super Bowl.

Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 78 yards on 17 carries and scored once. He looked vintage good, particularly once David Wilson lost a fumble on his second carry and was yanked from the gameplan. Yes, Wilson appeared to be crying on the sideline but he deeply cares about his job and knows just how much of his contract was incentive based. You fumble? You sit. Fortunately Tiki Barber was a fumbler until HC Tom Coughlin cured him with the "high and tight" method. Wilson has to learn since he was a fumbler in college and once you cough it up, everyone just tackles the ball instead of the player.

How well Bradshaw does will be interesting because the incredible job the Bucs did shutting down the Panthers run game last week. Chances are good that was more about being at home in the opener against a familiar opponent who had been a problem all last year. Bradshaw remains a must start.

This game should be an improvement for both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz who were swallowed up by the Cowboys new cornerbacks. Cruz was held to six catches for 58 yards while Nicks only produced 38 yards on four receptions. That has to change and should with the Buccaneers allowing Steve Smith to gain 106 yards on seven catches. Bradshaw may be slightly risky facing the Bucs but the wideouts should turn it on and win the game.

Martellus Bennett was also a bigger part of the game plan with six targets for four catches and one touchdown against his old employer. It's worth keeping an eye to see if Bennett remains a target equal with the two main wide receivers this week as well.

Giants win this game because they must. A loss here slants the entire season in a bad direction.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 24 20 25 12 25 24
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 13 2 25 15 4 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG PHI 0000025021 ***
Eli has been scuffling a bit of late, but a Philly secondary that's allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight of its last nine and gave up 309 and 2 to Eli in the earlier meeting this year should help him get back on track. Doesn't hurt that the Giants need to win to keep their hopes of defending their title alive.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG PHI 6013200000 ***
Bradshaw says he's going to play despite (insert this week's injury here), which will limit his practice time this week. He's still the best bet for a goal line touchdown if there is to be one, and Philly has served up a rushing score in four straight so that's a strong possibility. However, the injury and the fact that he amassed 77 yards from scrimmage in the earlier meeting don't exactly scream "wait for me" when setting your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB David Wilson, NYG PHI 500000000 ***
Wilson is a strong play if Ahmad Bradshaw can't go this week, but it sounds like Bradshaw will at least play some so it's tough to bank on the rookie for a significant fantasy contribution.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Victor Cruz, NYG PHI 006701000 ***
Cruz was big in the earlier meeting with Philly, with a touchdown and 109 yards. But he's had just 36 yards combined over the past two games and is limping towards the finish line. Tough to reward that sort of slumpage with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, NYG PHI 004500000 ***
Nicks has been banged up all season, culminating in his goose egg last week. He didn't play against the Eagles in the earlier meeting and can't be banked on for much if any fantasy help here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brandon Myers, NYG PHI 002200000 ****
Myers was on a roll but now three games in a row of sub-15 yard efforts means he cannot be trusted.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Lawrence Tynes, NYG PHI 3333 ***
After racing to the NFL lead in field goals, Tynes has hit just one in the past three weeks. Philly held him to one trey in the earlier meeting, so best to get your kicks elsewhere.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG PHI 2133 ***
Brown nailed the game-winner to send Cincy to the playoffs, but if Mike Nugent gets healthy Brown could be watching the postseason with the rest of us. Until the Bengals clarify their kicker situation you shouldn't be looking to either for fantasy help.

WEEK 2
2012
* CHI at GB (THU) * DAL at SEA * MIN at IND * TB at NYG
ARI at NE * DET at SF * NO at CAR * TEN at SD
* BAL at PHI * HOU at JAC * NYJ at PIT * WAS at STL
* Updated CLE at CIN KC at BUF * OAK at MIA DEN at ATL (MON)

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