FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: GB 20, SEA 17 (Line: GB by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Aaron Rodgers, Anthony McCoy

Player Updates: Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb

This is going to be a very interesting game. The Seattle defense has been very effective and better as the game goes on. But their offense has never been much more than Marshawn Lynch. The Packers still have not rekindled the magic of 2011 when they could score on accident. If this game follows the first two weeks, it will be close and not have that many points. This is the Packers first trip away from Green Bay.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA ----- 12 @NYG -----
4 NO ----- 13 MIN -----
5 @IND ----- 14 DET -----
6 @HOU ----- 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL ----- 16 TEN -----
8 JAC ----- 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20,1 290,1
WR Randall Cobb 20 3-40
WR Jordy Nelson 5-70
TE Martellus Bennett 6-70,1
TE Lance Kendricks 1-10
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers won their matchup with the Bears but so far Aaron Rodgers ranks as the 18th best fantasy quarterback despite being a first round pick in almost every league. Granted he did play the 49ers and Bears but both games came at home and he only managed one touchdown against the Bears. Last year over two games he scored eight times on them. Almost all those top quarterbacks from last year are struggling more. But Rodgers seemed above that happening.

Cedric Benson bounced back against his original team and posted 81 yards on 20 carries and added four catches for 35 yards. That was in direct contrast to facing the 49ers when he only produced 18 yards in the entire game. At least Benson does get all the running back work there is.

Greg Jennings was held out of the Thursday game to rest his groin and make sure he would be 100% the rest of the season. He'll return this week even though he only managed 34 yards on five receptions versus the 49ers. Jordy Nelson has yet to score a touchdown but has been the most solid receiver so far with 11 catches for 148 yards on the year. Then again, he was always a force in all home games last year and never failed to score in Green Bay. This year - two games and not a point. Randall Cobb and James Jones still contribute but fell flat against the Bears when Jennings was out and the team needed them to step up.

Even Jermichael Finley has been off his game with only 11 catches for 73 yards on the season though he scored against the 49ers. The passing game feels like it has been about halved from the prolific games we recall from last year. That's not likely to change much this week on the road for the first time and facing a Seattle defense that has only allowed one passing touchdown per game and just shut down Tony Romo. If the Packers are to resume their role as NFC North bad ass, it better start this week. The Packers defense also needs to rise up in this game against an average offense.

Starting in week four - their fortunes really change with a schedule that should be easy aside from the one trip to Houston. Even a loss here would not doom them but it makes it much harder than it needs to be.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 21 29 6 8 23 3
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 6 9 14 9 3 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @DET 10000028040 ***
Rodgers threw for only 205 yards in the Week 3 meeting, but four of his 15 completions found the end zone for a cool 28.5 fantasy points. Last year, at Detroit, he tossed a pair of TDs, ran for one, and threw for 273 yards with an interception. The Lions have yielded only six passing TDs in their last five games, or one every 19.5 completions. The secondary is an injury-riddled mess, however, so Rodgers should have a field day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ty Montgomery, GB @DET 5004300000 ***
Montgomery takes on a Lions defense that cannot possibly account for all of the weapons in Green Bay's offense. This defense give up two scores last week to Zeke Elliott and is battered with injuries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @DET 0071002000 ***
Nelson should have no problem finding room to roam against the Lions' banged up secondary. Detroit has surrendered five TDs to the position in the last two games, and Nelson scored two of his own in the Week 3 contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @DET 004501000 ***
Adams caught 2-23-1 in the Week 3 meeting, but he has exploded since that game. The Packers travel to Detroit this time, and the Lions have allowed five receiver TDs in the last two games alone. This secondary is ravaged with injuries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Lance Kendricks, GB @DET 004400000 ***
Arizona has been stout against the position all year, and Kendricks is too hit or miss to be trusted.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, GB @DET 003400000 ***
Miami is the second softest opponent for tight ends to exploit in Week 17. The Week 2 meeting resulted in Bennett posting five catches for 114 yards and a TD.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @DET 1144 ***
Detroit has allowed the fourth lowest weekly average of field goal chances, but all 12 extra points in the last five games have gone through. Most of them came against Dallas last week.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB ----- 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL ----- 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR ----- 14 ARI -----
6 NE ----- 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF ----- 16 SF -----
8 @DET ----- 17 STL -----
9 MIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 160,1
WR Doug Baldwin 2-20
TE Jimmy Graham 6-80,1
PK Blair Walsh 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks beat Dallas thanks to a dominating defense and a solid rushing effort out of Marshawn Lynch. Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson has been effective enough but mostly as a game manager trying to not make any mistakes. His two efforts thus far are virtual bookends of 150 pass yards and one touchdown each. His role as a runner has only provided about 20 or 30 yards per game as well.

Lynch has been the chain mover in this offense with no fewer than 21 carries per game and at least four yards per tote. He rushed for 122 yards and a score on the Cowboys but has been unused as a receiver. With the Seahawks wanting to keep the Packers from the field as much as possible, it is a lock that Lynch gets 20 more carries this week as well.

The lackluster passing stats has left all receivers with no real fantasy value. Last week it was unknown Anthony McCoy scoring once and turning in five catches for 41 yards but he only had 13 catches over his first two seasons in Seattle who has apparently given up on Zach Miller. No wideout or tight end has accounted for more than 43 yards in a game and that does not look to change going against a top five secondary this week.

Whether the Seahawks win or lose, the outcome is not going to be caused by the offense. Seattle's defense will either keep them in the game as they did against the Cowboys or not. In fantasy terms, only Lynch has any real value as a starter besides the team defense aspect.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 31 19 32 17 14 20
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 5 17 8 7 15 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @SF 10000028020 ***
Wilson was banged up in the Week 3 game, so holding his 16.5-point day against him is unfair. San Francisco, though, is weaker against the run than the pass, which is where many teams choose to exploit this group.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA @SF 8012100000 *
Rawls' status is up in the air at this time. Return Friday for a clearer picture.

Update: Rawls was removed from the injury report and should see a healthy workload against the Niners. He could lose some work to Alex Collins, but Rawls is a sound fantasy play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alex Collins, SEA @SF 4003200000 **
The matchup couldn't be much better for the hard-charging rookie. Collins could be the surprise player of the week in fantasy if Thomas Rawls cannot play. The Niners have given up a TD every 15.2 carries and 16.8 offensive touches since Week 11. That is a full two scores per game.

Update: Rawls has been removed from the report, but Collins could have enough of a role to be used as a flex play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @SF 0061001000 ***
Baldwin exceed all expectations last week and owned the Cardinals' secondary. San Francisco is another easy test, and Baldwin worked them for 164 yards and a score on eight catches in Week 3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA @SF 004600000 ***
Kearse would be nothing more than a shot in the dark for deep leaguers looking for an off-the-beaten-path flier. San Francisco has given up 161.6 yards per game to receivers since Week 11, which is the 11th highest average.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA @SF 002300000 ***
Even with the loss of Tyler Lockett, Richardson should not be utilized in any format as such a low-volume player.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA @SF 005701000 ***
Graham enjoyed a 22-point fantasy showing in Week 3's meeting, and he came to life last week after a quiet spell. Make sure he is in all lineups this time around.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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