FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: JAC 17, IND 20 (Line: IND by 2)

Players to Watch: Blain Gabbert

Players Updated: Austin Collie, Donnie Avery

The 0-2 Jaguars swept the 1-1 Colts last season, winning 17-3 in Indianapolis in week ten and later ending the season 19-13 in Jacksonville. But the Colts are already better and the Jaguars are back to their 2011 ways of relying, 100%, on Maurice Jones-Drew for their offensive punch. Jaguars have no pass attack but the Colts at home are better against the run. The Colts have no rushing attack which is the main weakness of the Jacksonville defense. Throw in the interdivisional nature and anything could happen. Bottom - it just is not going to have many points attached no matter what.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND ----- 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: For a fleeting week, it seemed that Blain Gabbert had turned a corner and was becoming a real NFL-quality quarterback. And then it ends up that was just the bad Vikings secondary and Gabbert only managed to complete 7 of 19 passes for 53 yards and one score against the visiting Texans. While the Colts are not nearly as good as the Texans on defense, Gabbert's return to the "deer in the headlights" form of last season only means bad things. It is the sort of things that defensive coordinators love.

Gabbert is going to define the offense and really the entire season based on his success. We already know what happens when he fails miserably (they get to draft a great wideout that gets no passes). This is going to be a test for him since he has one decent game and one horrible outing. Let this one have him choke again and the Jags are going to have to rethink their depth chart. Gabbert was suffering from a sore hamstring and toe injury but is expected to be back this week.

Justin Blackmon had four passes thrown in his vicinity against the Texans but never caught one. Laurent Robinson ended with 49 yards on three receptions which makes him KING OF THE RECIEVERS. There is just not a shred of fantasy value here when the quarterback throws for only 53 yards. Throw Blackmon and Robinson to the bottom of your roster on the off chance something good happens before you are hopelessly out of contention.

Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to only 12 carries but gained 60 yards and scored on a catch last week as the only Jaguars player worthy of mention. Jones-Drew gets to carry the team on his back another year unless Gabbert can come around quickly. The Colts defense is improved from last year and that should help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 28 21 30 25 27 30
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 21 24 29 4 20 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 20000025022 ***
Bortles travels well, with multiple touchdowns in six straight outside of Jacksonville and 300-plus yards in four of those six. He took the Texans for 331 and 3 in the earlier meeting, and while Houston's defense has been better of late he's still a solid bet for productivity--though it might take until garbage time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @HOU 3005400000 ***
Robinson should salvage value as a pass catcher--13-97 receiving in two games sans TJ Yeldon--but he's expected to lose carries to Jonas Gray so limit expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonas Gray, JAC @HOU 300000000 ***
The Jaguars have indicated they want to test-drive Gray this week, though don't expect much against a Houston defense that's given up one RB TD in the past two months and allowed just one RB to top 53 rushing yards since returning from their Week 9 bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @HOU 006801000 ***
Robinson has scored in five straight and scored or topped 100 yards in each of the last 11 games--a streak that includes 6-86-1 against the Texans back in Week 6. You wanna bet against him, you're on your own.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @HOU 004501000 ***
Hurns has 100 yards and a TD in two of the last three, but he's slightly less reliable than his running mate Allen Robinson so in a tough matchup such as this one his expectations get dialed back a bit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC @HOU 005400000 ***
Thomas made his first Jacksonville splash back in Week 6 with 7-78-1 against the Texans. He's scored four times since but was lightly targeted last week, enough that you need to temper expectations against a Houston defense that's allowed only two TE TDs in the nine games since they last saw Thomas.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC @HOU 0022 ***
Two treys last four games;
kicking PATs instead
Rather count by threes

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC ----- 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB ----- 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 20 210,1
QB Andrew Luck 230,1
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
RB Frank Gore 90,1 2-10
WR Andre Johnson 6-80,1
TE Coby Fleener 5-40,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their first win of the season and Andrew Luck looked very sharp passing for 224 yards and two scores with no turnovers. Then again, those were the Vikings who actually made Blaine Gabbert look good. This second home game should be one of the easier games on the schedule and the Colts go on their bye next week.

Donald Brown remains sub-standard and only gained 45 yards on 16 carries against the Vikings and he still has no catches this year. The Colts mix in Vick Ballard but this is one of the worst rushing units in the NFL and by the end of the year they will have probably wrapped up the cellar. This is a rebuilding year but the rushing effort is doing Luck no favors.

Coby Fleener had a big season opener but then settled down to only two receptions for 16 yards versus the Vikings. Until he has another big game, the season opener has to be considered a fluke. Luck even threw one of his touchdowns to Dwayne Allen instead of Fleener on the only pass that Allen was given this year.

Reggie Wayne remains above expectations with six catches for 71 yards and a score last week to go with the 135 yards on nine receptions in Chicago. Donnie Avery torched the Vikes for 111 yards on nine carries and along with Wayne account for nearly all the wide receiver passes.

These are all new Colts from what the Jaguars have known. The Jags have been the worst against the run but that's related to facing the Texans and Vikings so far. Hard to be excited about any of the matchups this week but you have to be impressed with what the rookie quarterback has accomplished in two games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 17 30 7 16 21 12
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 3 32 7 14 32 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Freeman, IND TEN 0000014002 *
Indy's starting quarterback in a must-win game will most likely be a guy who's been with the team less than a week. That didn't work so well for Freeman the last time he tried it--flaming out famously as a Viking on Monday Night Football--and there's no reason to think it will go any better here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND TEN 10903200000 *
With little in the way of QB options look for the Colts to pin their offensive hopes on Gore. He responded with 15-85-2 in a similar situation last week and had 14-86-2 in Tennessee earlier this season, so he's both a volume and matchup bet this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Johnson, IND TEN 003300000 ***
The third wheel in a passing game that's literally dragging in quarterback candidates off the street? Pass.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND TEN 003300000 *
The Titans have allowed a 100-yard receiver in five of the last six games, but with limited options at quarterback--Indy will start either a guy who's never taken a regular season snap or one of two guys they signed off the street earlier this week--the passing game can't be banked on for productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND TEN 002300000 *
It's not so much the matchup as it is the lack of a quarterback in Indy that has us worried about the potential of the passing game. Best look for options that don't have to wear name tags so their quarterback knows who they are.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND TEN 002200000 *
The last time Fleener was fantasy relevant none of the Colts' current quarterbacks were even a gleam in Indy's eye. Nothing to see here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND TEN 2200 ***
TEN gives up field goals;
can Indy QB du jour
get him close enough?

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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