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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: JAC 17, IND 20 (Line: IND by 2)

Players to Watch: Blain Gabbert

Players Updated: Austin Collie, Donnie Avery

The 0-2 Jaguars swept the 1-1 Colts last season, winning 17-3 in Indianapolis in week ten and later ending the season 19-13 in Jacksonville. But the Colts are already better and the Jaguars are back to their 2011 ways of relying, 100%, on Maurice Jones-Drew for their offensive punch. Jaguars have no pass attack but the Colts at home are better against the run. The Colts have no rushing attack which is the main weakness of the Jacksonville defense. Throw in the interdivisional nature and anything could happen. Bottom - it just is not going to have many points attached no matter what.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND ----- 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30

Pregame Notes: For a fleeting week, it seemed that Blain Gabbert had turned a corner and was becoming a real NFL-quality quarterback. And then it ends up that was just the bad Vikings secondary and Gabbert only managed to complete 7 of 19 passes for 53 yards and one score against the visiting Texans. While the Colts are not nearly as good as the Texans on defense, Gabbert's return to the "deer in the headlights" form of last season only means bad things. It is the sort of things that defensive coordinators love.

Gabbert is going to define the offense and really the entire season based on his success. We already know what happens when he fails miserably (they get to draft a great wideout that gets no passes). This is going to be a test for him since he has one decent game and one horrible outing. Let this one have him choke again and the Jags are going to have to rethink their depth chart. Gabbert was suffering from a sore hamstring and toe injury but is expected to be back this week.

Justin Blackmon had four passes thrown in his vicinity against the Texans but never caught one. Laurent Robinson ended with 49 yards on three receptions which makes him KING OF THE RECIEVERS. There is just not a shred of fantasy value here when the quarterback throws for only 53 yards. Throw Blackmon and Robinson to the bottom of your roster on the off chance something good happens before you are hopelessly out of contention.

Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to only 12 carries but gained 60 yards and scored on a catch last week as the only Jaguars player worthy of mention. Jones-Drew gets to carry the team on his back another year unless Gabbert can come around quickly. The Colts defense is improved from last year and that should help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 28 21 30 25 27 30
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 21 24 29 4 20 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @SF 20000028020 ***
In his last five games, Bortles has an 8-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio (plus 2 rushing TDs). He has averaged 22.8 fantasy points and ranks as the seventh quarterback of this span. San Fran brings the sixth-worst matchup for yardage per game but the third-softest rating for allowing touchdowns. The 49ers have a lone pick in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC @SF 8003300000 **
Fournette is expected back for what is a brutal matchup on paper. The perception may be this defense is a cupcake, but the 49ers are the toughest statistical matchup of the week. No other team has denied a running back touchdown of any kind since Week 8, and the position is averaging only 62 rushing yards (32nd). Through the air, this is also the eighth-worst for receptions and No. 30 in terms of yardage granted. All of that said, the opponents were TEN, HOU, CHI, SEA, NYG, ARI and PHI since the last time a running back gashed them (Ezekiel Elliott in Week 7).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC @SF 1003200000 ***
The matchup is not promising by any stretch, and Leonard Fournette returns this week. Yeldon isn't a pragmatic option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC @SF 005901000 ***
Marqise Lee (ankle) has a chance to return this week. The Jaguars may not rush him back with the way Keelan Cole and Jaydon Mickens played the last time out. San Francisco has permitted receivers a touchdown per game since Week 10, though this is the 23rd-best matchup for receptions and only 20th for yardage.

Update: Lee has been ruled out, but Allen Hurns (ankle) has a chance at returning.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC @SF 005700000 ***
Cole has scored in three straight games and stepped up in a huge way with Marqise Lee on the shelf last week. The 49ers present a quality matchup for scoring efficiency (10th) but little else. This is the 23rd-best receptions matchup and No. 20 for yardage.

Update: Lee has been ruled out, but Allen Hurns (ankle) has a chance at returning.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @SF 003400000 ***
Update: Hurns was limited in all three sessions this week and is questionable. Consider him closer to doubtful.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @SF 003301000 ***
Even though the 49ers have limited tight ends to 3.8 receptions (23rd) for 34.8 yards (27th) per game, this is the fourth-best matchup for finding a touchdown -- the only way Lewis has fantasy value.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC @SF 3322 ***
Since Week 10, kickers have missed three of the 16 total kicks afforded by the 49ers. Two of the misses came on the seven field goal attempts, and this is the seventh-worst matchup of Week 16.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC ----- 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB ----- 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 230,1
RB Frank Gore 90,1 2-10
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their first win of the season and Andrew Luck looked very sharp passing for 224 yards and two scores with no turnovers. Then again, those were the Vikings who actually made Blaine Gabbert look good. This second home game should be one of the easier games on the schedule and the Colts go on their bye next week.

Donald Brown remains sub-standard and only gained 45 yards on 16 carries against the Vikings and he still has no catches this year. The Colts mix in Vick Ballard but this is one of the worst rushing units in the NFL and by the end of the year they will have probably wrapped up the cellar. This is a rebuilding year but the rushing effort is doing Luck no favors.

Coby Fleener had a big season opener but then settled down to only two receptions for 16 yards versus the Vikings. Until he has another big game, the season opener has to be considered a fluke. Luck even threw one of his touchdowns to Dwayne Allen instead of Fleener on the only pass that Allen was given this year.

Reggie Wayne remains above expectations with six catches for 71 yards and a score last week to go with the 135 yards on nine receptions in Chicago. Donnie Avery torched the Vikes for 111 yards on nine carries and along with Wayne account for nearly all the wide receiver passes.

These are all new Colts from what the Jaguars have known. The Jags have been the worst against the run but that's related to facing the Texans and Vikings so far. Hard to be excited about any of the matchups this week but you have to be impressed with what the rookie quarterback has accomplished in two games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 17 30 7 16 21 12
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 3 32 7 14 32 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jacoby Brissett, IND @BAL 10000018002 ***
Brissett is not a viable fantasy option in any setup and faces a lethal defense to boot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND @BAL 6002100000 ***
Gore has scored once over his past 82 offensive touches, and he isn't much of a threat for aerial contributions. Since Week 10, Baltimore has granted a rushing TD at the second-easiest rate, and this is the best place for an offensive touchdown (one every 15.9 touches). It's also the seventh-worst matchup for offensive touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marlon Mack, IND @BAL 2002200000 ***
Mack has been non-existent for fantasy owners over the past five weeks, and unless he scores a touchdown, his contributions will remain insignificant. Tempting fate to find out if he can take advantage of this fruitful matchup is unwise. Baltimore has, for the record, the softest defense when it comes to allowing running backs to score offensive touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @BAL 004500000 ***
Baltimore is a great matchup for receptions (5th most) and yardage (3rd) but ranks as the toughest defense for permitting touchdowns to receivers. Precisely zero have gone into the end zone on the last 71 tries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chester Rogers, IND @BAL 003300000 ***
The Ravens have not given up a touchdown in the past five games, or 73 receptions worth of action. There is no reason to consider Rogers in any conventional league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND @BAL 003300000 ***
The Ravens have surrendered the third-highest average number of receptions to tight ends without giving up a touchdown in the past five games. Doyle should be in the mix for yardage and catches for PPR gamers.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @BAL 1000 *****
The position has missed one of their nine field goal tries and one of the eight PATs provided to them. This combines to create the ninth-fewest kicking chances per game in the last five weeks.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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