FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: JAC 17, IND 20 (Line: IND by 2)

Players to Watch: Blain Gabbert

Players Updated: Austin Collie, Donnie Avery

The 0-2 Jaguars swept the 1-1 Colts last season, winning 17-3 in Indianapolis in week ten and later ending the season 19-13 in Jacksonville. But the Colts are already better and the Jaguars are back to their 2011 ways of relying, 100%, on Maurice Jones-Drew for their offensive punch. Jaguars have no pass attack but the Colts at home are better against the run. The Colts have no rushing attack which is the main weakness of the Jacksonville defense. Throw in the interdivisional nature and anything could happen. Bottom - it just is not going to have many points attached no matter what.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND ----- 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30

Pregame Notes: For a fleeting week, it seemed that Blain Gabbert had turned a corner and was becoming a real NFL-quality quarterback. And then it ends up that was just the bad Vikings secondary and Gabbert only managed to complete 7 of 19 passes for 53 yards and one score against the visiting Texans. While the Colts are not nearly as good as the Texans on defense, Gabbert's return to the "deer in the headlights" form of last season only means bad things. It is the sort of things that defensive coordinators love.

Gabbert is going to define the offense and really the entire season based on his success. We already know what happens when he fails miserably (they get to draft a great wideout that gets no passes). This is going to be a test for him since he has one decent game and one horrible outing. Let this one have him choke again and the Jags are going to have to rethink their depth chart. Gabbert was suffering from a sore hamstring and toe injury but is expected to be back this week.

Justin Blackmon had four passes thrown in his vicinity against the Texans but never caught one. Laurent Robinson ended with 49 yards on three receptions which makes him KING OF THE RECIEVERS. There is just not a shred of fantasy value here when the quarterback throws for only 53 yards. Throw Blackmon and Robinson to the bottom of your roster on the off chance something good happens before you are hopelessly out of contention.

Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to only 12 carries but gained 60 yards and scored on a catch last week as the only Jaguars player worthy of mention. Jones-Drew gets to carry the team on his back another year unless Gabbert can come around quickly. The Colts defense is improved from last year and that should help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 28 21 30 25 27 30
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 21 24 29 4 20 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC DEN 50100019001 ***
A shaky quarterback versus one of fantasy's worst matchups ... are you crazy? Denver has allowed only 18.5 fantasy points, on average, since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC DEN 3004300000 ***
Yeldon surprisingly dressed last week, and with Chris Ivory ailing, he could be called on for a larger load. The Broncos have been pushed around on the ground, but it requires a defense respecting the pass to truly take advantage of such a matchup. This isn't one of those cases.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC DEN 003400000 ***
Denver's defense of receivers has slipped a touch lately, but it doesn't matter. Lee is not a sound play in any fantasy circle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC DEN 004300000 ***
With all of the defensive attention coming Robinson's way, trusting he posts lineup-worthy stats is a tall order. He faces Aqib Talib and shadow coverage most of the day; consider him a dice roll in this one.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC DEN 2211 ***
Denver has offered the 10th most combined attempts per game, but kickers have not lived up to their end of the deal, making only 77.8 percent of the combined chances (tied for league worst).

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC ----- 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB ----- 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 230,1
RB Frank Gore 90,1 2-10
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their first win of the season and Andrew Luck looked very sharp passing for 224 yards and two scores with no turnovers. Then again, those were the Vikings who actually made Blaine Gabbert look good. This second home game should be one of the easier games on the schedule and the Colts go on their bye next week.

Donald Brown remains sub-standard and only gained 45 yards on 16 carries against the Vikings and he still has no catches this year. The Colts mix in Vick Ballard but this is one of the worst rushing units in the NFL and by the end of the year they will have probably wrapped up the cellar. This is a rebuilding year but the rushing effort is doing Luck no favors.

Coby Fleener had a big season opener but then settled down to only two receptions for 16 yards versus the Vikings. Until he has another big game, the season opener has to be considered a fluke. Luck even threw one of his touchdowns to Dwayne Allen instead of Fleener on the only pass that Allen was given this year.

Reggie Wayne remains above expectations with six catches for 71 yards and a score last week to go with the 135 yards on nine receptions in Chicago. Donnie Avery torched the Vikes for 111 yards on nine carries and along with Wayne account for nearly all the wide receiver passes.

These are all new Colts from what the Jaguars have known. The Jags have been the worst against the run but that's related to facing the Texans and Vikings so far. Hard to be excited about any of the matchups this week but you have to be impressed with what the rookie quarterback has accomplished in two games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 17 30 7 16 21 12
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 3 32 7 14 32 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @NYJ 0000026021 ***
Luck is expected to return after a week off due to a concussion. The Jets boast fantasy's second toughest matchup for quarterbacks, having allowed only one aerial TD per game in the last four games. New York solidly rates in the bottom 10 of all notable fantasy passing categories, so Luck is not the best of starts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND @NYJ 5003300000 ***
Only one of every 44 attempts in the last five weeks has scored against the Jets. New York has allowed the seventh most PPR points on a per-game basis, but this is the fifth most generous from an offensive yardage allowed perspective.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @NYJ 006701000 ***
Hilton should be fine after leaving early last week. He faces a Jets defense that has given up one touchdown per contest over the last five weeks. One of every 12.5 receptions have scored, and the Jets are a negative-leaning-neutral opponent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND @NYJ 005501000 ***
Moncrief is very quietly stringing together as strong of a return from his six-week injury hiatus as possible. The promising receiver has scored in four straight games and takes on a Jets team that has allowed one score per contest to receivers since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND @NYJ 003300000 ***
Dorsett, a deep threat first, is a hard sell for gamers in non-DFS situations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND @NYJ 002300000 ***
Allen doesn't have a large enough role on a consistent enough basis to be on a roster, let alone in a fantasy lineup. The Jets are also harsh against his position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND @NYJ 002200000 ***
New York has allowed only 13 receptions for 121 yard and a TD over its last four games to tight ends. There isn't enough upside with Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett both healthy.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @NYJ 3322 ***
In the last four weeks, kickers have been afforded 11 tries (10 made). That is the second highest per-game average for the position, which has helped lead to New York being the second friendliest matchup to exploit.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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