FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: JAC 17, IND 20 (Line: IND by 2)

Players to Watch: Blain Gabbert

Players Updated: Austin Collie, Donnie Avery

The 0-2 Jaguars swept the 1-1 Colts last season, winning 17-3 in Indianapolis in week ten and later ending the season 19-13 in Jacksonville. But the Colts are already better and the Jaguars are back to their 2011 ways of relying, 100%, on Maurice Jones-Drew for their offensive punch. Jaguars have no pass attack but the Colts at home are better against the run. The Colts have no rushing attack which is the main weakness of the Jacksonville defense. Throw in the interdivisional nature and anything could happen. Bottom - it just is not going to have many points attached no matter what.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND ----- 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Toby Gerhart 20 2-10
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: For a fleeting week, it seemed that Blain Gabbert had turned a corner and was becoming a real NFL-quality quarterback. And then it ends up that was just the bad Vikings secondary and Gabbert only managed to complete 7 of 19 passes for 53 yards and one score against the visiting Texans. While the Colts are not nearly as good as the Texans on defense, Gabbert's return to the "deer in the headlights" form of last season only means bad things. It is the sort of things that defensive coordinators love.

Gabbert is going to define the offense and really the entire season based on his success. We already know what happens when he fails miserably (they get to draft a great wideout that gets no passes). This is going to be a test for him since he has one decent game and one horrible outing. Let this one have him choke again and the Jags are going to have to rethink their depth chart. Gabbert was suffering from a sore hamstring and toe injury but is expected to be back this week.

Justin Blackmon had four passes thrown in his vicinity against the Texans but never caught one. Laurent Robinson ended with 49 yards on three receptions which makes him KING OF THE RECIEVERS. There is just not a shred of fantasy value here when the quarterback throws for only 53 yards. Throw Blackmon and Robinson to the bottom of your roster on the off chance something good happens before you are hopelessly out of contention.

Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to only 12 carries but gained 60 yards and scored on a catch last week as the only Jaguars player worthy of mention. Jones-Drew gets to carry the team on his back another year unless Gabbert can come around quickly. The Colts defense is improved from last year and that should help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 28 21 30 25 27 30
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 21 24 29 4 20 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC CLE 0000023012 ***
The Browns aren't a particularly favorable passing game matchup, and Bortles has yet to do enough in his career to warrant a fantasy plug-in here without benefit of a favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Storm Johnson, JAC CLE 5011100000 **
The Browns are far from a shutdown matchup against the run, but nothing in Storm's 2.1 yards per carry in his first NFL start suggest you should go out of your way to get him into your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC CLE 005601000 **
What the heck is wrong with Joe Haden? Four of five WR1s to face the Browns have scored and racked up at least 99 yards. Shorts' 16 targets last week suggest the Jags view him as their WR1, so among Jacksonville's multiple receivers he has the best chance of putting up fantasy numbers this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC CLE 003400000 ***
Robinson took a back seat to Cecil Shorts last week when all of Jacksonville's receivers were (finally) healthy. As the WR2 he should get opportunities, but with no reason not to throw at Joe Haden it's not as advantageous a fantasy position as it's been in the past.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC CLE 003300000 ***
The Jacksonville receiver rotation is a work in progress, but with everyone healthy for the first time last week Hurns ran a distant third in both targets and productivity. This passing game doesn't offer nearly enough for you to plumb the depths of the receiving corps for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clay Harbor, JAC CLE 004300000 ***
The Browns have allowed four TE TDs in the past two games, the Jags have scored two in the past three, and Harbor has housed all of the positions' looks over the past two games including last week's 3-91-1 showing. He's a sneaky fantasy helper if you're dealing with Jimmy Graham's injury or Zach Ertz's bye week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC CLE 2222 ***
Scobee is averaging less than five points per outing; you can do better.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC ----- 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB ----- 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 230,1
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
RB Trent Richardson 100,1 4-40
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne 6-80
TE Coby Fleener 5-40,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their first win of the season and Andrew Luck looked very sharp passing for 224 yards and two scores with no turnovers. Then again, those were the Vikings who actually made Blaine Gabbert look good. This second home game should be one of the easier games on the schedule and the Colts go on their bye next week.

Donald Brown remains sub-standard and only gained 45 yards on 16 carries against the Vikings and he still has no catches this year. The Colts mix in Vick Ballard but this is one of the worst rushing units in the NFL and by the end of the year they will have probably wrapped up the cellar. This is a rebuilding year but the rushing effort is doing Luck no favors.

Coby Fleener had a big season opener but then settled down to only two receptions for 16 yards versus the Vikings. Until he has another big game, the season opener has to be considered a fluke. Luck even threw one of his touchdowns to Dwayne Allen instead of Fleener on the only pass that Allen was given this year.

Reggie Wayne remains above expectations with six catches for 71 yards and a score last week to go with the 135 yards on nine receptions in Chicago. Donnie Avery torched the Vikes for 111 yards on nine carries and along with Wayne account for nearly all the wide receiver passes.

These are all new Colts from what the Jaguars have known. The Jags have been the worst against the run but that's related to facing the Texans and Vikings so far. Hard to be excited about any of the matchups this week but you have to be impressed with what the rookie quarterback has accomplished in two games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 17 30 7 16 21 12
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 3 32 7 14 32 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND CIN 0000032030 ***
Cincy's far from a soft matchup but at this juncture one does not bet against Luck; he's topped 300 yards in five of six and scored multiple touchdowns in every game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND CIN 4003201000 ****
Bradshaw has been the more effective of Indy's backs, plus he's a factor in the passing game. Cincy hasn't given up much on the ground, but Bradshaw's contributions as a receiver make him at least a fringe fantasy contributor this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND CIN 4004300000 ***
Richardson is the hammer in Pep Hamilton's toolbox, and against Cincy that's not a bad tool to be as the last three RB TDs they've surrendered have gone to hammer backs like Shonn Greene, Stevan Ridley, and Fozzy Whittaker.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND CIN 007801000 ***
No secondary receiver has topped 50 yards against the Bengals, and that's what Wayne has become in Indy. Keep your expectations low, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to look for fantasy help elsewhere this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND CIN 006800000 ****
The Bengals haven't given up a ton to opposing wideouts, but the three TDs they have surrendered have all gone to WR1s--a role Hilton has inhabited in Indy. Plus, with Andrew Luck as red-hot as he is, you can't bet against TY.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND CIN 004601000 ***
There's certainly opportunity here against a Cincy D that's surrendered three TE TDs in the past two games. Allen's fantasy value is dinged only by the prospect of Coby Fleener, and to a lesser extent Jack Doyle, swiping looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND CIN 002300000 ***
Andrew Luck's former college go-to guy has become his second-favorite tight end at the pro level. It's a favorable matchup, but odds are Dwayne Allen swipes Fleener's fantasy opportunities this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND CIN 3333 ****
No surprise that the rock-solid Vinatieri has been rock-solid consistent, with at least eight points in each of the past five games while averaging a shade over 10 points per outing. Doesn't hurt that the Bengals have allowed eight field goals in just the past two games, either.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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