FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: JAC 17, IND 20 (Line: IND by 2)

Players to Watch: Blain Gabbert

Players Updated: Austin Collie, Donnie Avery

The 0-2 Jaguars swept the 1-1 Colts last season, winning 17-3 in Indianapolis in week ten and later ending the season 19-13 in Jacksonville. But the Colts are already better and the Jaguars are back to their 2011 ways of relying, 100%, on Maurice Jones-Drew for their offensive punch. Jaguars have no pass attack but the Colts at home are better against the run. The Colts have no rushing attack which is the main weakness of the Jacksonville defense. Throw in the interdivisional nature and anything could happen. Bottom - it just is not going to have many points attached no matter what.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND ----- 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Toby Gerhart 20 2-10
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: For a fleeting week, it seemed that Blain Gabbert had turned a corner and was becoming a real NFL-quality quarterback. And then it ends up that was just the bad Vikings secondary and Gabbert only managed to complete 7 of 19 passes for 53 yards and one score against the visiting Texans. While the Colts are not nearly as good as the Texans on defense, Gabbert's return to the "deer in the headlights" form of last season only means bad things. It is the sort of things that defensive coordinators love.

Gabbert is going to define the offense and really the entire season based on his success. We already know what happens when he fails miserably (they get to draft a great wideout that gets no passes). This is going to be a test for him since he has one decent game and one horrible outing. Let this one have him choke again and the Jags are going to have to rethink their depth chart. Gabbert was suffering from a sore hamstring and toe injury but is expected to be back this week.

Justin Blackmon had four passes thrown in his vicinity against the Texans but never caught one. Laurent Robinson ended with 49 yards on three receptions which makes him KING OF THE RECIEVERS. There is just not a shred of fantasy value here when the quarterback throws for only 53 yards. Throw Blackmon and Robinson to the bottom of your roster on the off chance something good happens before you are hopelessly out of contention.

Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to only 12 carries but gained 60 yards and scored on a catch last week as the only Jaguars player worthy of mention. Jones-Drew gets to carry the team on his back another year unless Gabbert can come around quickly. The Colts defense is improved from last year and that should help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 28 21 30 25 27 30
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 21 24 29 4 20 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Chad Henne, JAC IND 0000024021 ***
It's easy to say the Colts have been carved up via the air thus far, but in fairness to them they've faced Peyton Manning and Nick Foles. Still, Henne dropped 331 and 1 on them last December, posted a solid 266 and 2 in Philly, and would have fared better statistically against the Redskins had he not spent the afternoon running for his life. Should be a solid outing here, the kind you wouldn't be embarrassed to plug into a lineup that just lost, say, RG3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC IND 5002100000 ***
At two yards a carry it's going to take some work for Gerhart to carve out fantasy value, even against a Jags D still reeling from the one-two punch of LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles. But hey, who else they got?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC IND 003501000 ***
Since sneaking up on Philly in the first half of Week 1, Hurns has exactly two catches for 13 yards. Not quite time to discard him into the one-hit wonder bin, but if you're plugging him into your fantasy lineup you must enjoy playing the lottery.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC IND 006700000 ***
Shorts practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, which is a positive step for him. Should he play he's the best (only?) playmaker on the Jaguars' offense and warrants a fantasy start against a defense he's taken for 246 yards and two TDs in three career meetings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC IND 004500000 ***
With Cecil Shorts sidelined we've been waiting for Lee to emerge as the go-to receiver Blake Bortles will trust... you know, once the Jaguars hand the keys to Bortles. Through two games, we're still waiting. Not that he can't do some damage against the Colts, but he has yet to demonstrate he's worthy of the trust required to crack a fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clay Harbor, JAC IND 003301000 *
Hey, Harbor gets the start against an Indy defense that clearly can't cover tight ends! I mean, they've allowed 12-198-3 to... oh, wait, Julius Thomas and Zach Ertz. Never mind; as you were.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC IND 1122 ***
One more PAT and Scobee will join 27 of his NFL kicking mates in double figures. For the season. Yeah, it's that bad.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC ----- 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB ----- 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 230,1
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
RB Trent Richardson 100,1 4-40
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne 6-80
TE Coby Fleener 5-40,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their first win of the season and Andrew Luck looked very sharp passing for 224 yards and two scores with no turnovers. Then again, those were the Vikings who actually made Blaine Gabbert look good. This second home game should be one of the easier games on the schedule and the Colts go on their bye next week.

Donald Brown remains sub-standard and only gained 45 yards on 16 carries against the Vikings and he still has no catches this year. The Colts mix in Vick Ballard but this is one of the worst rushing units in the NFL and by the end of the year they will have probably wrapped up the cellar. This is a rebuilding year but the rushing effort is doing Luck no favors.

Coby Fleener had a big season opener but then settled down to only two receptions for 16 yards versus the Vikings. Until he has another big game, the season opener has to be considered a fluke. Luck even threw one of his touchdowns to Dwayne Allen instead of Fleener on the only pass that Allen was given this year.

Reggie Wayne remains above expectations with six catches for 71 yards and a score last week to go with the 135 yards on nine receptions in Chicago. Donnie Avery torched the Vikes for 111 yards on nine carries and along with Wayne account for nearly all the wide receiver passes.

These are all new Colts from what the Jaguars have known. The Jags have been the worst against the run but that's related to facing the Texans and Vikings so far. Hard to be excited about any of the matchups this week but you have to be impressed with what the rookie quarterback has accomplished in two games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 17 30 7 16 21 12
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 3 32 7 14 32 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @JAC 0000028020 ***
Luck continues to fight through Pep Hamilton's offense to produce quality fantasy numbers, with multiple TDs in each game this year. He's also scored multiple times in three of four against the Jags, who themselves have surrendered 280 and 2 to each of the quarterbacks they've faced. It all adds up to another solid showing for Luck, with spectacular hiding behind Hamilton's run-dominated call sheet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND @JAC 7012200000 ***
Richardson will likely see enough touches to produce a helpful fantasy line; how could he not against a Jaguars defense that's already allowed four different backs to score--a group that doesn't even include Shady McCoy and his 115 combo yards?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND @JAC 4005301000 ***
The touch discrepancy isn't as great as you might think, though on five fewer touches Bradshaw has produced 35 more yards from scrimmage. He'll get his here, by land or air.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND @JAC 006801000 ***
Wayne may not own the Jags but he definitely leases with an option to buy, averaging 85 yards per game over 23 career meetings--though strangely enough, only seven touchdowns in that span. His targets haven't been as consistent as TY Hilton's, but Jacksonville's secondary couldn't slow either Philly or Washington so it's unlikely they reverse Wayne's career trend here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @JAC 005600000 ***
Wayne has back to back 11-target games going for him, so you know he'll get chances. He's already posted two 100-yard games on the Jags in his brief NFL career, and he'll have ample opportunity to make it three this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND @JAC 002300000 ***
A week after snapping his scoreless streak Nicks actually recorded negative yardage on his one catch against the Eagles. He can't be relied upon, and while there's upside in facing the Jags here's hoping you have a more dependable option at your disposal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND @JAC 003300000 ***
Allen went from 4-64-1 to 0-0-0 in the span of one week, representative of how inconsistent the Colts' tight end production is. Despite the favorable matchup, use Allen only if you can't find a more stable alternative.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND @JAC 002200000 ***
Thus far this year the Jags have been unable to defend Zach Ertz (3-77-1) or Niles Paul (8-99-1). Problem is, Fleener has to share with Dwayne Allen and now Jack Doyle. There's fantasy points here, we're just not sure they'll be centralized enough in one guy to matter.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @JAC 3333 ***
The Jags have surrendered double-digit kicking points in each game this year; Vinatieri hit double-digits in both meetings last year. What's not to like here?

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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