FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: JAC 17, IND 20 (Line: IND by 2)

Players to Watch: Blain Gabbert

Players Updated: Austin Collie, Donnie Avery

The 0-2 Jaguars swept the 1-1 Colts last season, winning 17-3 in Indianapolis in week ten and later ending the season 19-13 in Jacksonville. But the Colts are already better and the Jaguars are back to their 2011 ways of relying, 100%, on Maurice Jones-Drew for their offensive punch. Jaguars have no pass attack but the Colts at home are better against the run. The Colts have no rushing attack which is the main weakness of the Jacksonville defense. Throw in the interdivisional nature and anything could happen. Bottom - it just is not going to have many points attached no matter what.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND ----- 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30

Pregame Notes: For a fleeting week, it seemed that Blain Gabbert had turned a corner and was becoming a real NFL-quality quarterback. And then it ends up that was just the bad Vikings secondary and Gabbert only managed to complete 7 of 19 passes for 53 yards and one score against the visiting Texans. While the Colts are not nearly as good as the Texans on defense, Gabbert's return to the "deer in the headlights" form of last season only means bad things. It is the sort of things that defensive coordinators love.

Gabbert is going to define the offense and really the entire season based on his success. We already know what happens when he fails miserably (they get to draft a great wideout that gets no passes). This is going to be a test for him since he has one decent game and one horrible outing. Let this one have him choke again and the Jags are going to have to rethink their depth chart. Gabbert was suffering from a sore hamstring and toe injury but is expected to be back this week.

Justin Blackmon had four passes thrown in his vicinity against the Texans but never caught one. Laurent Robinson ended with 49 yards on three receptions which makes him KING OF THE RECIEVERS. There is just not a shred of fantasy value here when the quarterback throws for only 53 yards. Throw Blackmon and Robinson to the bottom of your roster on the off chance something good happens before you are hopelessly out of contention.

Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to only 12 carries but gained 60 yards and scored on a catch last week as the only Jaguars player worthy of mention. Jones-Drew gets to carry the team on his back another year unless Gabbert can come around quickly. The Colts defense is improved from last year and that should help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 28 21 30 25 27 30
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 21 24 29 4 20 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC IND 10000032020 ***
Despite all of its injury problems on defense to begin the year, Indy's defense of quarterbacks has been respectable -- bend (936 yards) but not break (3 TDs). Bortles racked up five total touchdowns and no interceptions (two fumbles lost) versus this group last season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC IND 3011100000 **
Ivory's status for Week 4 is unknown after suffering foot and ankle injuries last week. Check back Friday for an update on his status. The presumption is that he will play, but limitations may exist. Consider him a wildcard in non-PPR leagues against this mushy run D.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC IND 3005300000 ***
Indy has yielded six touchdowns (two receiving) to RBs this year, helping pave the way for the second worst fantasy RB defense. Yeldon, on his own merits, is barely playable. The matchup offers a glimmer of hope.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC IND 006801000 ***
Indy's defense somehow weathered the storm of having so many defensive backfield injuries and hasn't permitted a WR touchdown this season. Hurns, though, remains a fine PPR play given their high volume of receptions allowed (42).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC IND 006801000 ***
Don't bench your studs, as Robinson proved last week after a slow start to the year. Indy has not allowed a WR touchdown yet but has given up 42 receptions for 537 yards. Robinson caught five balls for 84 yards and a TD in two games last year against the Colts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC IND 003300000 *
The Colts rank in the middle of the league against tight ends, which stems from permitting a 15-186-1 line. Thomas is in that fringe territory for weekly starters. Look for a quality showing across the pond in Week 4.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC IND 2222 ***
The Colts are the third easiest matchup for kickers to exploit, and it could be worse for Indy if opposing feet were more accurate. Kickers have gone 8-for-9 on FGAs and 7-for-9 on XPAs.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC ----- 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB ----- 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 230,1
RB Frank Gore 90,1 2-10
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their first win of the season and Andrew Luck looked very sharp passing for 224 yards and two scores with no turnovers. Then again, those were the Vikings who actually made Blaine Gabbert look good. This second home game should be one of the easier games on the schedule and the Colts go on their bye next week.

Donald Brown remains sub-standard and only gained 45 yards on 16 carries against the Vikings and he still has no catches this year. The Colts mix in Vick Ballard but this is one of the worst rushing units in the NFL and by the end of the year they will have probably wrapped up the cellar. This is a rebuilding year but the rushing effort is doing Luck no favors.

Coby Fleener had a big season opener but then settled down to only two receptions for 16 yards versus the Vikings. Until he has another big game, the season opener has to be considered a fluke. Luck even threw one of his touchdowns to Dwayne Allen instead of Fleener on the only pass that Allen was given this year.

Reggie Wayne remains above expectations with six catches for 71 yards and a score last week to go with the 135 yards on nine receptions in Chicago. Donnie Avery torched the Vikes for 111 yards on nine carries and along with Wayne account for nearly all the wide receiver passes.

These are all new Colts from what the Jaguars have known. The Jags have been the worst against the run but that's related to facing the Texans and Vikings so far. Hard to be excited about any of the matchups this week but you have to be impressed with what the rookie quarterback has accomplished in two games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 17 30 7 16 21 12
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 3 32 7 14 32 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @JAC 20100025021 ***
Luck is missing one of his top targets in Donte Moncrief, but as T.Y. Hilton showed in Week 3, speed kills. Luck heads to London to face a division rival that he hasn't played since 2014. Jacksonville is the eighth easiest matchup for quarterbacks.

Update: Compounding the loss of Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett is questionable. Luck's upside is scant this weekend.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND @JAC 5003200000 ***
Six teams have been kinder to running backs than Gore's Week 4 opponent. The matchup, along with his limited use and marginal effectiveness, call for a trip to the bench in regular situations. Desperation only.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @JAC 007901000 ***
Hilton showed last week that one big play can turn things around. He was having an OK day until ripping off a monster TD catch-and-run. He should be started in all formats, and this matchup is two thumbs up in his favor.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND @JAC 003500000 ***
The speedster crosses the pond and has a fine matchup. Jacksonville ranks eighth against wideouts, giving up five touchdowns on 41 grabs. Dorsett has limited fantasy appeal and is best used in non-PPR leagues.

Update: Dorsett is questionable and did not fully practice Friday. This is the earliest game Sunday (9:30 ET), so make sure he's active before taking what is notable risk.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND @JAC 003201000 **
Doyle is becoming a playable commodity in fantasy circles, and it's coming at Dwayne Allen's expense. Doyle played in 74 percent of the snaps last week, compared to Allen's 82 percent. Jacksonville is a bottom-10 matchup for tight ends.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND @JAC 003300000 ***
Allen is a tough sell for any fantasy starting lineup ... this week, the going gets rougher. Jacksonville has allowed a line of 11-86-1 to the position. Keep Allen in reserve until he has a better matchup and a larger role.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @JAC 3322 ***
A trip to London brings a meeting with the fifth easiest kicker matchup. Jacksonville has ceded seven field goals and nine extra points at a 100 percent accuracy clip.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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