FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: KC 20, NO 34 (Line: NO by 9)

Player Update: Marques Colston

Apparently they need coaches and they really, really need a better defense. Giving up 75 points in two weeks is hard for anyone to keep up with but it makes for wonderful fantasy stats. The Chiefs are also 0-2 but on the road is no place to expect a turnaround since - and here is the phenomenal part - they too have allowed 75 points in two weeks. Thank you Schedule Gods for this game. By the time it is over who cares who wins? We'll need a calculator for the fantasy points.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO ----- 12 DEN -----
4 SD ----- 13 CAR -----
5 BAL ----- 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs defense has been their downfall so far and that is unlikely to change soon with a stretch of games that is looking harder each week. The Chiefs may well be 0-6 at their bye week before a chance to beat the Raiders can remove their goose egg from the standings.

Matt Cassel has been decent enough playing from behind each week and scoring twice while tossing at least 250 yards worth of passes. He's a bit of a turnover machine though with three interceptions and two lost fumbles and he has already been sacked eight times. This may be the one week to start the Saints defense.

Jamal Charles has been bothered by soreness in his surgically repaired knee and apparently did not get the memo from Adrian Peterson about acting like nothing happened. Charles was yanked last week after only three yards on six carries and is no lock to play in this game. Peyton Hillis gets the benefit of Charles not being 100% which is why they brought him in. But Hillis only gained 66 yards on 11 runs because the Chiefs cannot afford to just run the ball when they fall quickly and significantly behind each week.

Dexter McCluster would intuitively matter more with Charles out but last week he only totaled 32 yards on four catches after posting six receptions for 82 yards versus the Falcons. This week will be interesting to see how they use him and how often. He offers a different element to the offense that needs all the weapons it can find. Jonathan Baldwin returned last week and ended with three catches for 62 yards while Dwayne Bowe had one of his big games with 102 yards and two scores on eight catches. The Chiefs are giving up points like they were beads at Mardi Gras when the parade float from Hooters passes by. This means Dwayne Bowe should have many more big games if only in the fourth quarter just like last week when he scored both touchdowns.

Look, sadly at some point the Chiefs will find a defense and games will become "normal." But we can only hope it takes all season because this is fantasy nirvana for both the KC passing game and everyone who gets to play the Chiefs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 6 4 25 19 25 32
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 32 27 26 2 28 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC MIA 11016401000 ***
Following five games of borderline bench-worthy play, the slumbering monster has come out of hibernation. Should he struggle on the ground, Miami is an awesome matchup through the ski. This defense has granted the second-most receptions (8.2), fourth-most yards (60.8) and a trio of aerial TDs in the last five games to go with as many on the ground.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kerwynn Williams, KC MIA 300000000 *
Williams' status is unclear at this time. He missed Wednesday's session with a quad injury. Check back Friday for more details.

Update: It seems unlikely Williams will play after failing to log more than one limited session all week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, KC MIA 004701000 ***
The matchup trends against Tennessee break with Watkins' typical style, so this one really could go either way. The Titans have permitted receivers to march up and down the field with receptions (12th) and yardage (10th) on a weekly clip. However, this is the seventh-toughest defense for scoring against in the past five weeks. On the year, this is a much better matchup, statistically speaking.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC MIA 005600000 ***
Since Week 10, wideouts have managed only two touchdowns in five games against the Dolphins. This is the worst team for racking up receptions, and only two teams have provided more yardage on a weekly rate.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC MIA 006801000 ***
Tight ends have gone for 4.4 receptions (16th), 62.2 yards (4th) and a touchdown every 7.3 catches (10th) -- Kelce shouldn't have much trouble finding room in the middle vs. Miami.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC MIA 2233 ***
The match is moderate, and Butker is among the best fantasy options when KC's offense is clicking. Most (13) of the 21 kicking chances against the Dolphins have been PATs.

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL -----
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK -----
3 KC ----- 12 SF -----
4 @GB ----- 13 @ATL -----
5 SD ----- 14 @NYG -----
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB ----- 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN ----- 17 CAR -----
9 PHI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 300,3
RB Mark Ingram 40,1

Pregame Notes: Unlike the Chiefs, it is not so much that the Saints offense has been bad, it is just that they cannot quite keep up with all the points that their defense hands out. When each game has 60+ total points, it is truly a thing of fantasy beauty and has no real end in sight.

The only downside to Drew Brees is that he has two interceptions in both games. Otherwise, he is still chunking 320+ yards per week and scoring two or three times. Granted he cannot quite keep up with the opponent so far but having a bad defense means good things at least for his fantasy prospects.

The rushing effort is very productive and yet cut up into three parts to water down what could be. Darren Sproles does not even bother with rushing attempts any more. He has 18 catches on the season and not one carry. Mark Ingram has 22 runs for 68 yards and a score and not one reception. Pierre Thomas varies wildly from 29 total yards to 143 yards and that was in consecutive weeks. Bottom line here - Sproles is a receiver, Ingram is just a runner and flip a coin to see what Thomas might be this week.

Jimmy Graham still has a stranglehold on being the primary receiver with 23 passes that became 13 catches. He has no less than 71 yards each week and so far scores in every game just like you assumed when you drafted him way too early.

The wideouts remain spotty. Last week they did little and none had more than 49 yards and no score. But in week one at home, Marques Colston had a touchdown as did Lance Moore who had 120 yards on six catches. But they have not been consistent and with that risk in relying on them.

That all said - this is the week to start your Saints. With the Chiefs showing up, it should be a nice free-for-all in scoring that hopefully does not end up with the running back committee where it is too split out to net a monster game for anyone.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 4 3 23 3 20 29
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 31 21 17 20 26 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO ATL 0000024020 ***
Despite this being his worst statistical effort as a Saint, the veteran played well (271-2-1) for gamers in the Week 14 matchup at Atlanta. Since Brees isn't much of a runner, we'll remove the one ground TD by quarterbacks and we're left with the third-best matchup of the week. For the record, it is no different with that TD. At any rate, quarterbacks have averaged the sixth-most yards and nearly two TD passes a showing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alvin Kamara, NO ATL 6016701000 ***
A Week 14 concussion against Atlanta ended his day after four touches. Hopefully it didn't end your fantasy season at the same time! Kamara returned for a fine day in Week 15 and gets another shot at the Falcons. Atlanta has given up only two rushing scores in the last five games, but this is the No. 4 matchup to exploit for receptions and 11th-best for receiving yards on a weekly clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mark Ingram, NO ATL 8014300000 ***
These teams met just two weeks ago and it was a narrow Saints loss after their game plan was forced to change when Alvin Kamara went out with a concussion. Ingram finished with 92 yards on 16 touches. The Falcons have surrendered only two rushing TDs in the last five games, or one every 44.5 totes (23rd). The ground work is not enticing, though this is a strong matchup for aerial production by RBs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Thomas, NO ATL 006801000 ***
Thomas has a three-game scoring streak after a seven-contest drought. The second-year wideout has 25 targets in his last two games and enjoyed his finest appearance of 2017 in the Week 14 trip to Atlanta (27.7 PPR points). The Falcons have surrendered 14.4 receptions (3rd) and 161.4 yards (8th) per game, while only being the 19th-best matchup for touchdown frequency. It still comes out to one score per game since Week 10.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ted Ginn Jr., NO ATL 003400000 *
Ginn missed Week 15 with a rib injury and is probably closer to playing than sitting this week.

Update: Ginn has been removed from the injury report. The matchup is moderate, and he's a risky fantasy start in any situation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Benjamin Watson, NO ATL 003301000 ***
Indy has been good at limiting receptions and decent at preventing big yardage gains for tight ends, but this is the sixth-best opponent for touchdown frequency. Tight ends have averaged 53.3 yards per game (13th)
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Wil Lutz, NO ATL 1144 ***
Of the 19 total kicks, the only two misses came on the eight field goal tries. The Falcons rate as negative matchups in all notable kicking matchup metrics. Lutz was good for just five fantasy points in the meeting two weeks back.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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