FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 13, MIA 20 (Line:

Players Updated: Dustin Keller

The Jets and Dolphins are in a division that is knotted at 1-1 between all four teams and so far that is all teams winning at home and losing on the road - except for the mind-warping Patriots who lost to the Cardinals at home. The difference this week is that the Jets are on the road where they were smoked by the Steelers and the Fins are at home where they just smacked the Raiders. The Jets swept the Dolphins last year, winning 28-24 at home and 27-11 in Miami. So far the Fins are looking like the better team.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA ----- 12 NE -----
4 SF ----- 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: That euphoria from slapping the Bills in week one was short-lived. Everything that was wrong this summer (and last year) came rushing back and CB Darrelle Revis still has a concussion that may not let him play this week either. The problem is not the defense so much. It is the offense, or rather the lack of one.

Mark Sanchez played in Pittsburgh and only completed 10 of 27 for 138 yards and one score. He was not only ineffective, but the Jets still have not allowed Tim Tebow to throw one pass for fear that any completion will incite a riot among fans. They cannot all be the Bills at home. Sanchez never passed for more than 207 yards against the Dolphins last year.

Shonn Greene went from nearly looking serviceable against the Bills (27-94, TD) to being himself when he only managed 23 yards on 11 carries and missed part of the game after getting hit in the head. Unfortunately, Bilal Powell did not do that much either with just 33 yards on nine runs. This offense almost never throws the ball to a back and short of facing a horrible rush defense visiting New York, it is hard to consider these backs having any real fantasy value.

The passing game was a disaster and Stephen Hill went from week one star (5-89, 2 TD) to having zero catches on two passes against the Steelers. Santonio Holmes somehow scored once but only ended with 28 yards on three catches. There is nothing here that suggest it is going to improve soon. Jeremy Kerley waits until the end of the game and then gets a little slop when he had a team high 67 yards on two receptions last Sunday. Short of a desperation play, Holmes is the only receiver here with any fantasy value and that needs to be a 16 team league starting four wideouts to matter.

Dustin Keller remains out with a hamstring injury but had just the one catch in the season opener.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 19 28 13 26 16 5
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 25 13 23 23 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Bryce Petty, NYJ LAC 0000017012 ***
Petty has one of the worst matchups of the week and doesn't belong anywhere near a fantasy roster in single-year formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ LAC 601000000 ***
Powell's value has plummeted without an involvement in the passing game. He hasn't recorded a reception in two games and has just four since Week 8. Unless he finds the end zone for his third time in four games, ignore him without a clearer path to points.

Update: Powell should see more work with Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire failing to combine for even one practice this week. Both are gametime decisions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ LAC 3002200000 ***
About the only encouraging aspect of the matchup is LA has given up five offensive touchdowns in as many games since Week 10. Two of those scores came on 24 receptions allowed. Forte is a shaky play in any situation this week.

Update: Forte didn't practice all week and should be avoided if he can go.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ LAC 3002200000 ***
McGuire may see a few handles but isn't a fantasy factor, regardless of the matchup. This one happens to be on the negative side.

Update: McGuire is questionable and did not practice all week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ LAC 004301000 ***
There is no reason to chance it with Kearse vs. the toughest matchup of the week. LA has given up only one WR touchdown in the past five games, and this is a bottom-four matchup for receptions and yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ LAC 005500000 ***
The glory days with Josh McCown are a thing of the past, and Anderson faces the toughest matchup in both scoring systems for the week. LA has allowed a single touchdown by receivers over the past 42 receptions.

Update: Anderson was limited Wednesday but fully practiced the following two days. He is not on the report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ LAC 002200000 ***
Los Angeles isn't the best opponent for scoring against, with two TE touchdowns over the past five games (28 catches). For yardage (9th) and catches (4th) on a weekly rate, gamers have a decent opportunity for safety-valve points if they can trust Bryce Petty to deliver the rock.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ LAC 2222 ***
The Chargers present the fourth-worst matchup for each of FGAs per game, fantasy points per contest, combined kicking chances and possible fantasy points since Week 10.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 240,2
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 210,1
TE Anthony Fasano 3-20,1

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins got waxed in Houston which was not surprising since Ryan Tannehill was starting his first NFL game against a very tough defense on the road. But last week he looked far better against the visiting Raiders with far fewer mistakes. Tannehill not only passed for 200 yards and his first NFL touchdown, he also ran in a score as well. He faces a defense that has been kinder to opponents this year with a total of five passing scores allowed already but don't expect Tannehill to provide much more than game manager stats as he learns the ropes.

Last week Reggie Bush was unstoppable and led the NFL with 172 rushing yards on 26 carries (6.6 YPC) and scored twice while adding 25 more yards on three catches. He already gained 69 yards on just 14 carries in Houston and exploded last week. Bush gained 71 yards on just ten runs in the last meeting with the Jets though he did not play in the season finale when the Jets visited in 2011.

With around 200 passing yards per game, there is naturally rather limited fantasy value for any receivers though Brian Hartline has clearly became the preferred target for Tannehill with nine catches for 211 yards versus the Raiders. He had 12 targets which were double any other receiver. Davone Bess has provided around 45 yards per game so far but there is no merit to this passing attack that was described as "needing no #1 receiver" which is true when they are all equally as bad.

Anthony Fasano caught the lone passing touchdown of the year last Sunday but has yet to gain more than 19 yards in a game so far.

The Jets on the road should be weaker this year and the Fins are playing better on both sides of the ball. Neither team is passing that well but at least the Dolphins have been rushing well with Bush.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 29 2 29 28 30 21
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 19 22 25 17 6 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, MIA @KC 0000023012 ***
Quarterbacks have thrown a mere four TDs in the last five games, averaging only 231.4 aerial yards in those contests, against the Chiefs. This is the seventh-worst matchup of the week as the position averaged 18.2 fantasy points in that string of contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA @KC 9015400000 ***
Drake has been a fantasy goldmine in the last three weeks, going for at least 23 PPR points in each contest. Over the past five weeks, KC has yielded five offensive TDs in as many games. The matchup is soundly neutral, which works in Drake's favor.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @KC 006601000 ***
KC offers the sixth-hardest matchup in PPR and fourth-worst in standard scoring. The Chiefs have allowed only one of the last 59 receptions by the position to score, traversing five games of action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA @KC 004500000 ***
Since Week 10, wideouts have one touchdown in five games against the Chiefs. That rate of one every 59 catches is the third toughest to exploit in football. This matchup sits 22nd for yardage and 15th for receptions on a weekly basis.

Update: Parker (ankle) is questionable, though he should be fine after fully practicing Friday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA @KC 002300000 ***
While Stills is always the scoring threat from anywhere on the field, KC has done a masterful job of limiting receiver touchdowns in the past five games. Only one of the last 59 catches by the position has found the end zone, and this is a bottom-six matchup in both scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, MIA @KC 003200000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, MIA @KC 1122 ***
This is the eighth-worst matchup for combined kicking chances (18th FGA, 26th XPA), and 82.4 percent of all kicks made it through the posts.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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