FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 13, MIA 20 (Line:

Players Updated: Dustin Keller

The Jets and Dolphins are in a division that is knotted at 1-1 between all four teams and so far that is all teams winning at home and losing on the road - except for the mind-warping Patriots who lost to the Cardinals at home. The difference this week is that the Jets are on the road where they were smoked by the Steelers and the Fins are at home where they just smacked the Raiders. The Jets swept the Dolphins last year, winning 28-24 at home and 27-11 in Miami. So far the Fins are looking like the better team.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA ----- 12 NE -----
4 SF ----- 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Jeremy Kerley 3-50

Pregame Notes: That euphoria from slapping the Bills in week one was short-lived. Everything that was wrong this summer (and last year) came rushing back and CB Darrelle Revis still has a concussion that may not let him play this week either. The problem is not the defense so much. It is the offense, or rather the lack of one.

Mark Sanchez played in Pittsburgh and only completed 10 of 27 for 138 yards and one score. He was not only ineffective, but the Jets still have not allowed Tim Tebow to throw one pass for fear that any completion will incite a riot among fans. They cannot all be the Bills at home. Sanchez never passed for more than 207 yards against the Dolphins last year.

Shonn Greene went from nearly looking serviceable against the Bills (27-94, TD) to being himself when he only managed 23 yards on 11 carries and missed part of the game after getting hit in the head. Unfortunately, Bilal Powell did not do that much either with just 33 yards on nine runs. This offense almost never throws the ball to a back and short of facing a horrible rush defense visiting New York, it is hard to consider these backs having any real fantasy value.

The passing game was a disaster and Stephen Hill went from week one star (5-89, 2 TD) to having zero catches on two passes against the Steelers. Santonio Holmes somehow scored once but only ended with 28 yards on three catches. There is nothing here that suggest it is going to improve soon. Jeremy Kerley waits until the end of the game and then gets a little slop when he had a team high 67 yards on two receptions last Sunday. Short of a desperation play, Holmes is the only receiver here with any fantasy value and that needs to be a 16 team league starting four wideouts to matter.

Dustin Keller remains out with a hamstring injury but had just the one catch in the season opener.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 19 28 13 26 16 5
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 25 13 23 23 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ NE 0000025021 ***
QBs have averaged a messload of fantasy points against the Pats this year. No one has given up more fantasy points (29.5) and yards (335) per outing. QBs have thrown a TD every 10.4 completions, which is the fifth-most-efficient clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ NE 5002100000 ***
If Bilal Powell cannot play or is limited, McGuire would get the lion's share of the touches. He has proven to be explosive but hasn't been tested heavily over four quarters in the NFL. New England is the best matchup for a running back to cut his teeth.

Update: Powell didn't practice all week but is listed as questionable. He isn't likely to play. Matt Forte, though, returns to action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ NE 3001100000 **
Forte's status remains unsettled at this time. He didn't practice Wednesday but managed to warm up with the team.

Update: Bilal Powell didn't practice all week but is listed as questionable. Forte is expected to make his return to the field after he was removed from the injury report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ NE 005601000 ***
Kearse is as close to a safe option in this offense as you'll find among its receivers. The Patriots help nudge him closer to playability, as this is the fourth-best matchup in PPR. Kearse has shown a nose for the end zone in 2017, and the Patriots have permitted a WR TD per game in five showings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ NE 003400000 ***
Purely a wild flier because of the matchup, Anderson should be reserved for DFS purposes. New England has given up the fourth-most points per game in PPR and fifth-most in standard.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ NE 005400000 ***
Kerley could sneak into DFS lineups as a bottom-priced option because of the plus-matchup rating. New England is among the five most easily exploited defenses in either scoring system.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ NE 005501000 ***
One of every seven catches has gone for a score versus the Pats, and Seferian-Jenkins is developing a larger role int he offense. The position has averaged 66 yards on 5.6 snares facing this defense.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ NE 2222 ***
This would be a much better matchup than its current neutral status if kickers had not missed four of the 12 field goals attempts afforded to them.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 240,2
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 210,1
TE Anthony Fasano 3-20,1

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins got waxed in Houston which was not surprising since Ryan Tannehill was starting his first NFL game against a very tough defense on the road. But last week he looked far better against the visiting Raiders with far fewer mistakes. Tannehill not only passed for 200 yards and his first NFL touchdown, he also ran in a score as well. He faces a defense that has been kinder to opponents this year with a total of five passing scores allowed already but don't expect Tannehill to provide much more than game manager stats as he learns the ropes.

Last week Reggie Bush was unstoppable and led the NFL with 172 rushing yards on 26 carries (6.6 YPC) and scored twice while adding 25 more yards on three catches. He already gained 69 yards on just 14 carries in Houston and exploded last week. Bush gained 71 yards on just ten runs in the last meeting with the Jets though he did not play in the season finale when the Jets visited in 2011.

With around 200 passing yards per game, there is naturally rather limited fantasy value for any receivers though Brian Hartline has clearly became the preferred target for Tannehill with nine catches for 211 yards versus the Raiders. He had 12 targets which were double any other receiver. Davone Bess has provided around 45 yards per game so far but there is no merit to this passing attack that was described as "needing no #1 receiver" which is true when they are all equally as bad.

Anthony Fasano caught the lone passing touchdown of the year last Sunday but has yet to gain more than 19 yards in a game so far.

The Jets on the road should be weaker this year and the Fins are playing better on both sides of the ball. Neither team is passing that well but at least the Dolphins have been rushing well with Bush.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 29 2 29 28 30 21
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 19 22 25 17 6 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, MIA @ATL 0000021001 ***
Not only is Cutler unplayable, he also doesn't belong on any roster at this time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA @ATL 5001100000 ***
Receiving backs have been more prolific vs. the Falcons than Ajayi's mold. The main reasoning is this defense happily allows checkdowns at a crazy rate. On the ground, 19 teams have yielded higher yardage figures and 13th have been worse at defending the goal line.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @ATL 007800000 ***
Atlanta should be well-rested and prepared. The Dolphins look like a dumpster fire on offense and face the seventh-worst defense for struggling teams. Good for Landry, at this this is a midrange matchup for catches permitted.

Update: DeVante Parker is unlikely to go, which should mean more looks for Landry.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA @ATL 004600000 ***
Update: Stills enters the rankings after DeVante Parker was pulled following a mildly surprising doubtful listing. This is a bottom-10 matchup for receivers in both scoring formats. WRs have scored just three times in four games facing Atlanta.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, MIA @ATL 004400000 ***
Atlanta is one of a handful of defenses yet to surrender a score to a TE. Thomas faces a median matchup for PPR scoring.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, MIA @ATL 2200 ***
All 17 kicks (9 FGs) have been good against the Falcons in 2017. In four games, kickers have averaged 8.8 fantasy points (7th most) vs. Atlanta.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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