FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 13, MIA 20 (Line:

Players Updated: Dustin Keller

The Jets and Dolphins are in a division that is knotted at 1-1 between all four teams and so far that is all teams winning at home and losing on the road - except for the mind-warping Patriots who lost to the Cardinals at home. The difference this week is that the Jets are on the road where they were smoked by the Steelers and the Fins are at home where they just smacked the Raiders. The Jets swept the Dolphins last year, winning 28-24 at home and 27-11 in Miami. So far the Fins are looking like the better team.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA ----- 12 NE -----
4 SF ----- 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 60,1 270,1
RB Chris Johnson 60 4-20
WR Eric Decker 4-50,1
WR T.J. Graham 1-10
WR Jeremy Kerley 3-50
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: That euphoria from slapping the Bills in week one was short-lived. Everything that was wrong this summer (and last year) came rushing back and CB Darrelle Revis still has a concussion that may not let him play this week either. The problem is not the defense so much. It is the offense, or rather the lack of one.

Mark Sanchez played in Pittsburgh and only completed 10 of 27 for 138 yards and one score. He was not only ineffective, but the Jets still have not allowed Tim Tebow to throw one pass for fear that any completion will incite a riot among fans. They cannot all be the Bills at home. Sanchez never passed for more than 207 yards against the Dolphins last year.

Shonn Greene went from nearly looking serviceable against the Bills (27-94, TD) to being himself when he only managed 23 yards on 11 carries and missed part of the game after getting hit in the head. Unfortunately, Bilal Powell did not do that much either with just 33 yards on nine runs. This offense almost never throws the ball to a back and short of facing a horrible rush defense visiting New York, it is hard to consider these backs having any real fantasy value.

The passing game was a disaster and Stephen Hill went from week one star (5-89, 2 TD) to having zero catches on two passes against the Steelers. Santonio Holmes somehow scored once but only ended with 28 yards on three catches. There is nothing here that suggest it is going to improve soon. Jeremy Kerley waits until the end of the game and then gets a little slop when he had a team high 67 yards on two receptions last Sunday. Short of a desperation play, Holmes is the only receiver here with any fantasy value and that needs to be a 16 team league starting four wideouts to matter.

Dustin Keller remains out with a hamstring injury but had just the one catch in the season opener.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 19 28 13 26 16 5
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 25 13 23 23 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @SD 20100020011 ***
Geno is still looking for his first multiple touchdown game of the season... but it's tough to see while he's looking over his shoulder waiting for Michael Vick to replace him. San Diego isn't the likely venue for Smith to rebound.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @SD 500000000 ***
Not only has Ivory taken a bite out of Chris Johnson's carries, he's also seeing work in the passing game. That's key because the Bolts don't give up much on the ground; however, no team has allowed more RB receptions, receiving yards or receiving TDs. With more targets than CJ?K the past three games, Ivory should be able to salvage fantasy value with his pass-catching.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @SD 4002100000 ***
Johnson's still the home run hitter, only now he's losing at-bats to Chris Ivory. Worse, the place where he could really do some open-field damage--the passing game--is becoming Ivory's as well. Tough to look to CJ?K for any sort of fantasy help short of crossing your fingers and hoping for the homer.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @SD 004601000 ***
No receiver has scored or topped 70 yards against the Chargers since Week 1... but let's be honest, the Seahawks, Bills, and Jaguars hardly sport elite pass-catching talent. Decker made it through last week's game without aggravating his troublesome hamstring, even scoring in the process, and is the best option for any sort of passing game production in San Diego.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @SD 003200000 ***
On the heels of 81 yards and a touchdown, Kerley contributed just one catch for three yards last week. With Eric Decker healthy and the Bolts far from a fantasy-friendly matchup, don't expect much assistance from Kerley this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @SD 006600000 ***
With back-to-back 50-plus yard games, Amaro is becoming a bigger part of the Jets' offense. The Chargers have yet to allow a TE TD so it's not a great matchup, but his role is pushing him closer and closer to fantasy relevancy--just not this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @SD 3311 ***
The Chargers have yet to allow a double-digit scoring effort to an opposing kicker, and a Geno Smith led offense on the road is unlikely to break that maiden.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 210,1
RB Knowshon Moreno 10 2-10
WR Brandon Gibson 3-40
WR Brian Hartline 5-70
WR Mike Wallace 5-80

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins got waxed in Houston which was not surprising since Ryan Tannehill was starting his first NFL game against a very tough defense on the road. But last week he looked far better against the visiting Raiders with far fewer mistakes. Tannehill not only passed for 200 yards and his first NFL touchdown, he also ran in a score as well. He faces a defense that has been kinder to opponents this year with a total of five passing scores allowed already but don't expect Tannehill to provide much more than game manager stats as he learns the ropes.

Last week Reggie Bush was unstoppable and led the NFL with 172 rushing yards on 26 carries (6.6 YPC) and scored twice while adding 25 more yards on three catches. He already gained 69 yards on just 14 carries in Houston and exploded last week. Bush gained 71 yards on just ten runs in the last meeting with the Jets though he did not play in the season finale when the Jets visited in 2011.

With around 200 passing yards per game, there is naturally rather limited fantasy value for any receivers though Brian Hartline has clearly became the preferred target for Tannehill with nine catches for 211 yards versus the Raiders. He had 12 targets which were double any other receiver. Davone Bess has provided around 45 yards per game so far but there is no merit to this passing attack that was described as "needing no #1 receiver" which is true when they are all equally as bad.

Anthony Fasano caught the lone passing touchdown of the year last Sunday but has yet to gain more than 19 yards in a game so far.

The Jets on the road should be weaker this year and the Fins are playing better on both sides of the ball. Neither team is passing that well but at least the Dolphins have been rushing well with Bush.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 29 2 29 28 30 21
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 19 22 25 17 6 3

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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