FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 13, MIA 20 (Line:

Players Updated: Dustin Keller

The Jets and Dolphins are in a division that is knotted at 1-1 between all four teams and so far that is all teams winning at home and losing on the road - except for the mind-warping Patriots who lost to the Cardinals at home. The difference this week is that the Jets are on the road where they were smoked by the Steelers and the Fins are at home where they just smacked the Raiders. The Jets swept the Dolphins last year, winning 28-24 at home and 27-11 in Miami. So far the Fins are looking like the better team.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA ----- 12 NE -----
4 SF ----- 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 60,1 270,1
RB Chris Johnson 60 4-20
WR Eric Decker 4-50,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 3-50
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: That euphoria from slapping the Bills in week one was short-lived. Everything that was wrong this summer (and last year) came rushing back and CB Darrelle Revis still has a concussion that may not let him play this week either. The problem is not the defense so much. It is the offense, or rather the lack of one.

Mark Sanchez played in Pittsburgh and only completed 10 of 27 for 138 yards and one score. He was not only ineffective, but the Jets still have not allowed Tim Tebow to throw one pass for fear that any completion will incite a riot among fans. They cannot all be the Bills at home. Sanchez never passed for more than 207 yards against the Dolphins last year.

Shonn Greene went from nearly looking serviceable against the Bills (27-94, TD) to being himself when he only managed 23 yards on 11 carries and missed part of the game after getting hit in the head. Unfortunately, Bilal Powell did not do that much either with just 33 yards on nine runs. This offense almost never throws the ball to a back and short of facing a horrible rush defense visiting New York, it is hard to consider these backs having any real fantasy value.

The passing game was a disaster and Stephen Hill went from week one star (5-89, 2 TD) to having zero catches on two passes against the Steelers. Santonio Holmes somehow scored once but only ended with 28 yards on three catches. There is nothing here that suggest it is going to improve soon. Jeremy Kerley waits until the end of the game and then gets a little slop when he had a team high 67 yards on two receptions last Sunday. Short of a desperation play, Holmes is the only receiver here with any fantasy value and that needs to be a 16 team league starting four wideouts to matter.

Dustin Keller remains out with a hamstring injury but had just the one catch in the season opener.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 19 28 13 26 16 5
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 25 13 23 23 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ CHI 40100020001 ***
Passing alone won't make Geno a viable fantasy helper, but he's had 17 attempts in two games and could use his ground game to be a sneaky start against a defense that let EJ Manual run one in and Colin Kaepernick run for 66 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ CHI 5011100000 ***
Ivory has scored in both games thus far and is proving to be the more productive member of the Jets' backfield committee. Against a Bears defense that's already allowed four different backs to rush for at least 50 yards against them, he's an good fantasy start with a little bit of upside to boot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ CHI 6004200000 ***
Johnson is getting the touches, and against a Chicago D that's allowed four backs to top 50 yards this year he should be able to turn those touches into at least fringe fantasy help. And of course any of those touches could be a home run.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ CHI 005600000 *
Decker has been exactly what the Jets paid for, a reliable WR1. This matchup, while not overly favorable, should still allow him to generate his usual low-to-mid level fantasy contribution.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ CHI 005500000 ***
Kerley's 30-yards per game average isn't going to cut it fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jeff Cumberland, NYJ CHI 002200000 ***
The Jets' passing game doesn't produce enough for one fantasy helper at tight end, let alone the three players all battling for a share of the pie.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ CHI 3322 ***
The Jets don't mind settling for field goals, which is good, but they don't score a ton of points in general, which is bad.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ ----- 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 210,1
RB Knowshon Moreno 10 2-10
WR Brandon Gibson 3-40
WR Brian Hartline 5-70
WR Mike Wallace 5-80

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins got waxed in Houston which was not surprising since Ryan Tannehill was starting his first NFL game against a very tough defense on the road. But last week he looked far better against the visiting Raiders with far fewer mistakes. Tannehill not only passed for 200 yards and his first NFL touchdown, he also ran in a score as well. He faces a defense that has been kinder to opponents this year with a total of five passing scores allowed already but don't expect Tannehill to provide much more than game manager stats as he learns the ropes.

Last week Reggie Bush was unstoppable and led the NFL with 172 rushing yards on 26 carries (6.6 YPC) and scored twice while adding 25 more yards on three catches. He already gained 69 yards on just 14 carries in Houston and exploded last week. Bush gained 71 yards on just ten runs in the last meeting with the Jets though he did not play in the season finale when the Jets visited in 2011.

With around 200 passing yards per game, there is naturally rather limited fantasy value for any receivers though Brian Hartline has clearly became the preferred target for Tannehill with nine catches for 211 yards versus the Raiders. He had 12 targets which were double any other receiver. Davone Bess has provided around 45 yards per game so far but there is no merit to this passing attack that was described as "needing no #1 receiver" which is true when they are all equally as bad.

Anthony Fasano caught the lone passing touchdown of the year last Sunday but has yet to gain more than 19 yards in a game so far.

The Jets on the road should be weaker this year and the Fins are playing better on both sides of the ball. Neither team is passing that well but at least the Dolphins have been rushing well with Bush.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 29 2 29 28 30 21
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 19 22 25 17 6 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA KC 0000023020 ***
Tannehill remains a bundle of untapped fantasy potential, but this matchup with a KC defense that's made fantasy starters of both Peyton Manning and Jake Locker should allow him to tap at least some of that upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA KC 8012100000 ***
Miller is poised to capitalize on Knowshon Moreno's absence; this matchup with a Chiefs defense that has allowed 210 RB rushing yards to the Titans and Broncos--at better than five yards a pop--can only help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA KC 006701000 ***
The Chiefs have surrendered 50-plus yards and/or a touchdown to multiple receivers in each game. Given that Wallace has both of Miami's WR TDs and is the most targeted member of that unit, he'll take his bite off the top.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Hartline, MIA KC 005500000 ***
Multiple wideouts have scored and or topped 50 yards in each of KC's first two games; if Miami is to follow that trend, Hartline would be the favorite to join Mike Wallace in the fantasy winner's circle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA KC 005401000 ***
Despite 14 targets Clay has produced just 58 yards this season. However, that volume suggests he should be able to tap into a Chiefs defense that has surrendered three TE TDs already this year--making him a valuable fantasy commodity in TD-heavy scoring systems.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA KC 1133 ***
Sturgis was big at home in Week 1, not so much on the road in Week 2. Settle somewhere in the middle, which puts him on the fence as far as fantasy contributions go.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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