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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

Prediction: SF 31, MIN 17 (Line: SF by 7)

Players to Watch: Kyle Rudolph

This is going to be just like 25 years ago only not the part where the Vikings have a good team. The 49ers are 2-0 and have the early season look of the team to beat this year. The Vikings are 1-1 thanks to the home game against the Jaguars and just lost on the road in Indianapolis. Hard to imagine this could be a trap game. 49ers are on fire so far and the Vikes defense is not. It is also too early for the 49ers to have a let down game.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL -----
2 DET 27-19 11 CHI -----
3 @MIN ----- 12 @NO -----
4 @NYJ ----- 13 @STL -----
5 BUF ----- 14 MIA -----
6 NYG ----- 15 @NE -----
7 SEA ----- 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI ----- 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Frank Gore 90,1 2-10
WR Anquan Boldin 4-60,1
WR Michael Crabtree 6-70
WR Mario Manningham 3-30
WR Randy Moss 4-50,1
TE Vernon Davis 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: We all knew the 49ers defense was likely to be the best this season. Now the offense is kicking it into a higher gear and that just makes this team even harder to beat. They have already spun through what are two of the highest scoring offenses in the league last year and made it look easy.

Alex Smith has two efforts right around 225 yards and two scores in each with no turnovers. He's been more accurate and now has more weapons. The oddity is that adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham have just made Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis better. Davis has scored three times to tie for the NFL touchdown lead for the position. Crabtree has 13 catches for 143 yards as the most targeted receiver.

Frank Gore is starting the season red hot just like 2011. Though he has been limited to only 16 or 17 carries per game, he has averaged around 100 yards and scored each week. His role as a receiver has really waned though and that will come into play in future weeks when the 49ers face a tougher rush defense. Gore is running hard and doesn't look like a back who has lost a step. At least not yet.

Kendall Hunter is getting more playing time though not enough to merit any fantasy attention. The rookie LaMichael James has not played yet. So far the offense is limited to Gore, Crabtree and Davis like old times but they are getting the job done. Randy Moss scored in week one but only was thrown one pass last Sunday.

The Vikings have been good against the run but their pass defense has been the downfall and that is after only facing the Jaguars and Colts. The rushing effort may not be huge here but an early and substantial lead would lead to a tired Vikings defense by the end of the game.

I like a defensive score in this game as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 11 12 17 7 9 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 20 5 24 16 25 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colin Kaepernick, SF ARI 40100022020 ****
Kaepernick could use a good game here after only 244 yards and one score in Seattle last week. Alex Smith tossed three scores and 232 yards in the win in Arizona. Figure on Kaepernick having a decent showing here and a good shot at a rushing score. He won't get pulled from this one that they must win and he needs the reps anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, SF ARI 6001100000 **
Gore's been less effective in the second half of the year and only managed 16-55 in the Arizona meeting with the Cards. The problem here could be a big 49ers lead which leads to less use of Gore and possibly yanking him later in the game knowing they need him more for the playoffs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LaMichael James, SF ARI 4002100000 **
James has only seen about 8 carries per week as a high but that could go up this week against the Cardinals. That still won't make him anything more than a really risky flex play at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, SF ARI 005701000 ****
Crabtree enjoyed one of his best showings on the year when he caught 5-72 with two TDs in Arizona during week eight. He's always been a safe bet at home where four of his last five TDs happened.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Anquan Boldin, SF ARI 007800000 ***
The veteran needs 79 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Maybe the Ravens will force-feed him to get there, but that's hardly enough to make him a fantasy must-start against a pretty good Cincy secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randy Moss, SF ARI 003400000 ****
Moss steps into the #2 role now that Manningham is out but that is not likely to mean too much. Manningham never gained more than 72 yards as the flanker and scored only once all year. Worth watching to see what changes if any are made but not worth relying on for a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, SF ARI 002200000 *
Davis needs to be more involved now that Manningham is gone but he only accounted for 2-34 in the last meeting with the Cards. He's only averaged one catch over the last five weeks and never scored. Fortunately the Cards are weak against the position on the road where three of their last four opponents scored used a TE.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET -----
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF ----- 12 @CHI -----
4 @DET ----- 13 @GB -----
5 TEN ----- 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS ----- 15 @STL -----
7 ARI ----- 16 @HOU -----
8 TB ----- 17 GB -----
9 @SEA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN vs SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel 10 270,1
QB Christian Ponder 230,1
RB Toby Gerhart 20 2-10
RB Adrian Peterson 80,1 2-20
WR Devin Aromashodu 2-20
WR Greg Jennings 5-70,1
TE Kyle Rudolph 4-40
PK Blair Walsh 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: While it would seem good that the Vikes are playing each week to three point swings, the reality is that the first two games against the Jaguars and Colts may have represented the easiest opening for any team. And now comes the toughest defense just to show them the difference.

Christian Ponder continues his average play but turned in two touchdowns in Indianapolis for an unusually productive game. He's looked adequate so far but against lesser opponents. Getting back Jerome Simpson next week should help stretch the field and open it up more for the other receivers.

Currently Percy Harvin is the only wideout worth covering and his 21 targets in two weeks dwarf any other receiver. He still has not scored but is averaging 94 yards per game and comes off 12 catches last week. Michael Jenkins offers only marginal help and the only real hope here is that the tight end Kyle Rudolph can fill his potential. The second-year player scored last week but has remained only good for around 50 yards per game. That is a step up from last year though and he will eventually become a bigger part of the passing equation.

Adrian Peterson only managed 60 yards on 16 carries in Indianapolis after his week one scoring spree suggested he was already back in form. It is encouraging to see Peterson used as a receiver three times last week but it will take some time before vintage ADP can be expected.

After two close games, the Vikings face the cream of the crop with the 49ers showing up. This will be a little tougher than the first two weeks facing teams that combined for a 7-25 record last season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 22 15 12 18 4 28
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 17 1 23 27 12 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Christian Ponder, MIN GB 20000019001 ***
Ponder hasn't topped 200 yards since Week 10 and has three passing TDs in the last five games. He's all about managing the game, and fantasy teams don't need to have the game managed for them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN GB 12015300000 ***
Peterson is playing through an abdomen injury... but if he can rush for 1,800 yards in the year since having his knee surgically repaired, what's another 100 in a "win and you're in" game? There's also a reasonable chance AD reprises the 210 he dropped on Green Bay in the earlier meeting, which would give him the NFL single-season rushing record. After all he's accomplished to this point, now is not the time to start betting against him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Jennings, MIN GB 004501000 ***
Jennings posted 4-46 in the earlier meeting with Minnesota, his first game back after an extended injury absence. He scored last week and now has a month of games under his belt. Add in Jordy Nelson's questionable status and Randall Cobb's bum ankle and Jennings could be back atop the Packers' passing game pecking order this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN GB 003400000 ***
Wright's 53 yards last week was the most by a Minnesota wideout since his 62 yard outburst back in Week 10. So if you're forced to start a Vikings wide receiver, he's the best of a sorry lot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jerome Simpson, MIN GB 002300000 ***
Simpson is an occasional contributor in the passing game, but nowhere near worthy of a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN GB 004401000 ***
Rudolph scored last week and also scored in the earlier meeting with the Packers. His yardage of late hasn't been enough to justify a fantasy start--to be expected when a big day for your passing game means triple-digit yardage--but his nine touchdowns have him in range of the Vikings' team record for tight ends. Not that they'll be preoccupied with the playoff berth or another record, but it does increase the likelihood Rudy finds the end zone again this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN GB 3211 ***
The Pro Bowler missed his only attempt in the earlier meeting with Green Bay, but with eight treys in the past two games and a big leg that's already netted him the rookie record for 50-yard field goals he's tough to bet against.

WEEK 3
2012
*NYG at CAR (THU) *DET at TEN *NE at BAL SF at MIN
*ATL at SD HOU at DEN *NYJ at MIA *STL at CHI
*BUF at CLE *JAC at IND *PHI at ARI TB at DAL
*Updated *CIN at WAS *KC at NO *PIT at OAK *GB at SEA (MON)

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