FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: CIN 27, JAC 17 (Line:CIN by 1)

Players to Watch: Andrew Hawkins

Player Updated: Laurent Robinson

The 2-1 Bengals are on a roll with 34+ points in these last two weeks and travel to face the 1-2 Jaguars who come off their first win thanks to the Colts. Problem this week is that the Bengals can post points and the Jaguars have to rely on Maurice Jones-Drew to just about do everything for the offense.

The Bengals won 30-20 at Jacksonville last year.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC ----- 13 @SD -----
5 MIA ----- 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE ----- 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT ----- 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 280,2
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Brandon LaFell 5-60
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bengals hit a softer spot in their schedule with upcoming games against the Jaguars, Dolphins and Browns. Andy Dalton had a predictably started the year with a bad game in Baltimore but now has two straight 310+ yard, three touchdown efforts. He still throws one interception each week but never more. The season started with only A.J. Green as a known weapon but Dalton is creating new and effective other receivers.

Andrew Hawkins is becoming a deadly slot receiver who is incredible in open field. The diminutive wideout has scored in each of the last two games and while he only had two catches in each game, he averaged about 30 yards per catch. Hawkins is a very nice find already on the roster who is making a difference. Armon Binns has been improved these last two weeks as well. The common bond here is Dalton who is stepping up in his second season and already improved from his rookie season that ended up in the playoffs.

Jermaine Gresham scored last week and has been solid enough around 40 yards per week but is not becoming an elite tight end thanks to Dalton using the previously unknown wide receivers so well. Granted - just two games against the Browns and Redskins but the offense has looked as good as could be hoped. And that should continue here for the next three games at the least.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has two scores on the season but the yardage has been decreasing weekly and he was held to just 38 yards on 17 carries last week. That should change this week against a Jaguars defense weak against the run. This is a good test for Dalton since the Jaguars rank well against quarterbacks but Dalton is playing at a high level and just last week the Colts posted 313 pass yards on them with two touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 8 27 1 17 17 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 10 30 9 12 23 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB A.J. McCarron, CIN BAL 0000027020 ***
The Ravens shut out Ben Roethlisberger last week; can they get up for another division rival, on the road this time? McCarron has single TDs and 200 yards or less in each of his two starts, so don't expect fireworks here even though the matchup appears favorable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN BAL 501000000 ***
While Hill struggled in the earlier meeting (21 yards on 12 carries), the Ravens' run D has softened since that Week 3 meeting. In five of their last six games Baltimore has faced a back who got at least 15 carries; four of those five backs have scored or topped 100 yards or both. Hill has 19 carries in each of AJ McCarron's two starts, so he'll get the volume; Baltimore's track record suggests that volume is enough for a fantasy helper.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN BAL 4003400000 ***
Gio can still give you some PPR help--he has four catches in each of AJ McCarron's two starts--but he has a total of 94 yards on 30 touches in those two games. He's the backseat driver to Jeremy Hill, and while the matchup is favorable on paper it's not such that Gio can be a big fantasy helper alongside Hill.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN BAL 0071101000 ***
Green blew up the Ravens for 10-227-2 earlier this season, and AJ McCarron knows where to find him so you can expect good things again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN BAL 004400000 ***
LaFell is hurt, just like most of the rest of the Patriots. However, unlike Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman his fantasy value isn't such that he's worth waiting for.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tyler Eifert, CIN BAL 005501000 ***
Eifert has cleared concussion protocol, but he'll likely be eased back into the mix and is tough to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN BAL 1144 ***
Always fun to use
Ted songs in Nugent write-up
Wang Dang Sweet... you know

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Justin Blackmon 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars mounted a nice comeback to take down the Colts last week but this team still looks far too similar to 2011 when Maurice Jones-Drew had to provide all the offensive punch and Blaine Gabbert ended as the worst ranked starting quarterback. The win in Indy happened thanks in no small part to Jones-Drew running for 177 yards and one score on 27 carries. He was held to fewer than 20 carries in the two previous losses and that alone is the key here. Either stop Jones-Drew and you stop the Jaguars or you force the Jaguars to throw and limit the damage that the run game can do. There is really no reason not to load up the defense against one running back when facing the Jaguars.

Gabbert passes for a respectable - if not shocking - 260 yards and two scores in Minnesota. But these last two weeks were vintage Gabbert - one score and only 208 pass yards from both weeks combined. Gabbert has only completed 40 of 79 passes. Last week would have been another 80 yard debacle were it not for the 80-yard fluke touchdown by Cecil Shorts.

Second year and the passing game is still in shambles. It is not the receivers fault. Laurent Robinson had no catches last week and only eight on the season. Justin Blackmon has gone from being the best college wideout in the NFL draft to producing just one catch for seven yards over the last two weeks. The entire passing game here is absent any fantasy value for the second season in a row. They changed the receivers out for proven players. No different results mean they need to change the quarterback.

The good news is that the Bengals defense has been weak against the run so Jones-Drew gets the green flag this week. And even Gabbert may look nearly adequate against a defense that has been giving up a could scores to every opposing quarterback. In the end, that won't be enough again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 29 13 32 31 24 32
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 30 29 16 26 28 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 20000025022 ***
Bortles travels well, with multiple touchdowns in six straight outside of Jacksonville and 300-plus yards in four of those six. He took the Texans for 331 and 3 in the earlier meeting, and while Houston's defense has been better of late he's still a solid bet for productivity--though it might take until garbage time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC @HOU 7002200000 ***
The Bills have allowed five straight backfields to rush for at least 110 yards against them, so even if Ivory's touches are compromised by Bilal Powell he should approach his 18-99 from the earlier meeting. However, the lower volume diminishes Ivory's fantasy upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @HOU 3005400000 ***
Robinson should salvage value as a pass catcher--13-97 receiving in two games sans TJ Yeldon--but he's expected to lose carries to Jonas Gray so limit expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonas Gray, JAC @HOU 300000000 ***
The Jaguars have indicated they want to test-drive Gray this week, though don't expect much against a Houston defense that's given up one RB TD in the past two months and allowed just one RB to top 53 rushing yards since returning from their Week 9 bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @HOU 006801000 ***
Robinson has scored in five straight and scored or topped 100 yards in each of the last 11 games--a streak that includes 6-86-1 against the Texans back in Week 6. You wanna bet against him, you're on your own.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @HOU 004501000 ***
Hurns has 100 yards and a TD in two of the last three, but he's slightly less reliable than his running mate Allen Robinson so in a tough matchup such as this one his expectations get dialed back a bit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC @HOU 005400000 ***
Thomas made his first Jacksonville splash back in Week 6 with 7-78-1 against the Texans. He's scored four times since but was lightly targeted last week, enough that you need to temper expectations against a Houston defense that's allowed only two TE TDs in the nine games since they last saw Thomas.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC @HOU 0022 ***
Two treys last four games;
kicking PATs instead
Rather count by threes

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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