Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: CIN 27, JAC 17 (Line:CIN by 1)

Players to Watch: Andrew Hawkins

Player Updated: Laurent Robinson

The 2-1 Bengals are on a roll with 34+ points in these last two weeks and travel to face the 1-2 Jaguars who come off their first win thanks to the Colts. Problem this week is that the Bengals can post points and the Jaguars have to rely on Maurice Jones-Drew to just about do everything for the offense.

The Bengals won 30-20 at Jacksonville last year.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC ----- 13 @SD -----
5 MIA ----- 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE ----- 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT ----- 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 280,2
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Greg Little 3-30
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bengals hit a softer spot in their schedule with upcoming games against the Jaguars, Dolphins and Browns. Andy Dalton had a predictably started the year with a bad game in Baltimore but now has two straight 310+ yard, three touchdown efforts. He still throws one interception each week but never more. The season started with only A.J. Green as a known weapon but Dalton is creating new and effective other receivers.

Andrew Hawkins is becoming a deadly slot receiver who is incredible in open field. The diminutive wideout has scored in each of the last two games and while he only had two catches in each game, he averaged about 30 yards per catch. Hawkins is a very nice find already on the roster who is making a difference. Armon Binns has been improved these last two weeks as well. The common bond here is Dalton who is stepping up in his second season and already improved from his rookie season that ended up in the playoffs.

Jermaine Gresham scored last week and has been solid enough around 40 yards per week but is not becoming an elite tight end thanks to Dalton using the previously unknown wide receivers so well. Granted - just two games against the Browns and Redskins but the offense has looked as good as could be hoped. And that should continue here for the next three games at the least.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has two scores on the season but the yardage has been decreasing weekly and he was held to just 38 yards on 17 carries last week. That should change this week against a Jaguars defense weak against the run. This is a good test for Dalton since the Jaguars rank well against quarterbacks but Dalton is playing at a high level and just last week the Colts posted 313 pass yards on them with two touchdowns.

Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 8 27 1 17 17 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 10 30 9 12 23 5

QB Andy Dalton, CIN STL 0000026011 ***
Tough matchup, but at least it's a Sunday noon game so Dalton has a shot. Only two QBs have notched multiple scores against the Rams this season, only one has topped 300 yards, and Dalton will be hard-pressed to do either this week.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN STL 401000000 **
It was a horrible matchup for Hill last week, and he averaged just a shade over three yards a carry... but he still found the end zone twice. What little the Rams have given up on the ground has come on the road, so there's a chance Hill turns his 15 touches into a score... just not a particularly bankable one.
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN STL 3005500000 ***
Gio continues to be the more productive Bengals back, particularly at home. Fresh off 128 receiving yards Gio faces a Rams defense that's already allowed four RBs to top 70 receiving yards; one more reason to like him just a little bit more than Jeremy Hill again this week.
WR A.J. Green, CIN STL 005700000 ***
Only one wideout has scored on the Rams since their Week 6 bye, and none have topped 50 yards. That's a tough matchup for Green, and while he's proven himself to be matchup proof you should still lower the expectations bar here.
WR Marvin Jones, CIN STL 005600000 ***
If only one wideout has scored and none have topped 50 yards against the Rams since their Week 6 bye, you have to believe the pickings have been incredibly thin for secondary targets. You'd be absolutely right.
TE Tyler Eifert, CIN STL 005701000 ***
While the Rams are tough on tight ends they aren't infallible; in fact, they've given up 100 yard efforts in back-to-back games. Eifert is more of a TD guy than a yardage guy, but he'll take what he can get against a solid defense. No reason to shy away from him here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN STL 1133 ***
Nugent's baseline is similar to the Rams, who have allowed at least six kicker points in every game and double digits in back-to-back tilts. Slow and steady wins the race, right?

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Toby Gerhart 20
WR Justin Blackmon 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars mounted a nice comeback to take down the Colts last week but this team still looks far too similar to 2011 when Maurice Jones-Drew had to provide all the offensive punch and Blaine Gabbert ended as the worst ranked starting quarterback. The win in Indy happened thanks in no small part to Jones-Drew running for 177 yards and one score on 27 carries. He was held to fewer than 20 carries in the two previous losses and that alone is the key here. Either stop Jones-Drew and you stop the Jaguars or you force the Jaguars to throw and limit the damage that the run game can do. There is really no reason not to load up the defense against one running back when facing the Jaguars.

Gabbert passes for a respectable - if not shocking - 260 yards and two scores in Minnesota. But these last two weeks were vintage Gabbert - one score and only 208 pass yards from both weeks combined. Gabbert has only completed 40 of 79 passes. Last week would have been another 80 yard debacle were it not for the 80-yard fluke touchdown by Cecil Shorts.

Second year and the passing game is still in shambles. It is not the receivers fault. Laurent Robinson had no catches last week and only eight on the season. Justin Blackmon has gone from being the best college wideout in the NFL draft to producing just one catch for seven yards over the last two weeks. The entire passing game here is absent any fantasy value for the second season in a row. They changed the receivers out for proven players. No different results mean they need to change the quarterback.

The good news is that the Bengals defense has been weak against the run so Jones-Drew gets the green flag this week. And even Gabbert may look nearly adequate against a defense that has been giving up a could scores to every opposing quarterback. In the end, that won't be enough again.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 29 13 32 31 24 32
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 30 29 16 26 28 29

QB Blake Bortles, JAC SD 20000027021 ***
Bortles stumbled against Tennessee on a short week, but he has both time and the matchup to bounce back here. San Diego has allowed at least 250 passing yards in five straight and multiple QB TDs in four of the five, setting Bortles up for a return to fantasy favor.
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC SD 10012100000 ***
Feature backs have scored and/or topped 100 yards from scrimmage in nine of 10 against the Bolts, with Justin Forsett's 17-69 the only aberration; it's worth noting the rest of Baltimore's backfield chipped in 69 receiving yards in that game. Yeldon should find plenty of room against San Diego, with a baseline of the 87 combo yards per game he's averaged at home and plenty of upside beyond that.
WR Allen Robinson, JAC SD 0061101000 ***
Robinson has scored in four of the past six games and topped 100 yards in the two games he didn't score. San Diego hasn't given up much to the receiver position, but they're hardly a shutdown matchup and Robinson has already punched his every-week starter card.
WR Bryan Walters, JAC SD 003500000 ***
Tough to see Walter carve out fantasy value against a San Diego secondary that's allowed multiple WRs to score and/or top 50 yards just four times this season.
WR Allen Hurns, JAC SD 004400000 ***
Hurns' scoring streak came to an end last week and this isn't a particularly favorable matchup for him to start a new one. That said, one off week shouldn't keep him out of your lineup even in a tougher matchup.
TE Julius Thomas, JAC SD 004301000 **
Thomas' targets continue to increase, with at least five in five straight games and at least eight in three of those five. He also scored last week and could do so again against a San Diego defense that's given up seven TE TDs on the year--three in the last three games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC SD 1133 ***
Myers has three or more field goals in three straight games, with a very kicker-friendly San Diego defense coming to town. Stream away!

CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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