FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: CIN 27, JAC 17 (Line:CIN by 1)

Players to Watch: Andrew Hawkins

Player Updated: Laurent Robinson

The 2-1 Bengals are on a roll with 34+ points in these last two weeks and travel to face the 1-2 Jaguars who come off their first win thanks to the Colts. Problem this week is that the Bengals can post points and the Jaguars have to rely on Maurice Jones-Drew to just about do everything for the offense.

The Bengals won 30-20 at Jacksonville last year.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC ----- 13 @SD -----
5 MIA ----- 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE ----- 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT ----- 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 280,2
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Brandon LaFell 5-60

Pregame Notes: The Bengals hit a softer spot in their schedule with upcoming games against the Jaguars, Dolphins and Browns. Andy Dalton had a predictably started the year with a bad game in Baltimore but now has two straight 310+ yard, three touchdown efforts. He still throws one interception each week but never more. The season started with only A.J. Green as a known weapon but Dalton is creating new and effective other receivers.

Andrew Hawkins is becoming a deadly slot receiver who is incredible in open field. The diminutive wideout has scored in each of the last two games and while he only had two catches in each game, he averaged about 30 yards per catch. Hawkins is a very nice find already on the roster who is making a difference. Armon Binns has been improved these last two weeks as well. The common bond here is Dalton who is stepping up in his second season and already improved from his rookie season that ended up in the playoffs.

Jermaine Gresham scored last week and has been solid enough around 40 yards per week but is not becoming an elite tight end thanks to Dalton using the previously unknown wide receivers so well. Granted - just two games against the Browns and Redskins but the offense has looked as good as could be hoped. And that should continue here for the next three games at the least.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has two scores on the season but the yardage has been decreasing weekly and he was held to just 38 yards on 17 carries last week. That should change this week against a Jaguars defense weak against the run. This is a good test for Dalton since the Jaguars rank well against quarterbacks but Dalton is playing at a high level and just last week the Colts posted 313 pass yards on them with two touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 8 27 1 17 17 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 10 30 9 12 23 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN @DEN 10000021010 ***
Denver remains good at limiting yardage through the air, but no team has allowed TD passes with a higher frequency in the past five weeks. One of every 7.6 completions has scored. The likelihood of Dalton finding a great deal of success is rather low, however. He's a high-risk, moderate-reward candidate.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joe Mixon, CIN @DEN 4003200000 ***
In the past five weeks, Denver has allowed 111.8 rushing yards (9th), 23.8 aerial yards (31st) and a TD every 20 touches (2nd). A matching four TDs on the ground and through the sky have been scored vs. Denver over its last five. Craziness.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN @DEN 1004300000 **
While the Broncos have encountered a few hiccups against running backs in recent weeks, the pass-catching backs have remained out in the cold but not out of the end zone. This is the sixth-hardest matchup for receptions and second-best for yardage. TD-wise, one in five catches has gone for a score, which is easily the worst defense of RBs in this area.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN @DEN 005600000 ***
Green has faced Denver each of the past two seasons and has done a decent job in PPR scoring. He had 15.7 points last year and 16.7 in 2015. The Broncos remain strong against wideouts -- ranked 31st in both scoring formats -- but have given up a TD every 10.7 receptions (8th-softest rate). Luckily for Denver, this translates to only three in five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN @DEN 004400000 ***
A.J. Green's sidekick stepped up last week, going for 95 yards on six grabs, including a TD. The veteran has just two scores on the year (both in the last four games). Denver remains dominant against receivers in yards and catches, although three of the past 32 have gone for six.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tyler Kroft, CIN @DEN 005401000 ***
Tight ends have averaged 6.2 receptions (3rd most), 100.2 yards (most) and a TD every 7.8 catches (8th). Kroft could enjoy a fine fantasy day in Week 11 against easily the worst defense of this position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, CIN @DEN 3311 ***
The Broncos have been a fine place to look for fantasy success. The position has averaged 2.2 field goals on 2.4 attempts, also making 3.6 extra points on 3.8 kicks per contest.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars mounted a nice comeback to take down the Colts last week but this team still looks far too similar to 2011 when Maurice Jones-Drew had to provide all the offensive punch and Blaine Gabbert ended as the worst ranked starting quarterback. The win in Indy happened thanks in no small part to Jones-Drew running for 177 yards and one score on 27 carries. He was held to fewer than 20 carries in the two previous losses and that alone is the key here. Either stop Jones-Drew and you stop the Jaguars or you force the Jaguars to throw and limit the damage that the run game can do. There is really no reason not to load up the defense against one running back when facing the Jaguars.

Gabbert passes for a respectable - if not shocking - 260 yards and two scores in Minnesota. But these last two weeks were vintage Gabbert - one score and only 208 pass yards from both weeks combined. Gabbert has only completed 40 of 79 passes. Last week would have been another 80 yard debacle were it not for the 80-yard fluke touchdown by Cecil Shorts.

Second year and the passing game is still in shambles. It is not the receivers fault. Laurent Robinson had no catches last week and only eight on the season. Justin Blackmon has gone from being the best college wideout in the NFL draft to producing just one catch for seven yards over the last two weeks. The entire passing game here is absent any fantasy value for the second season in a row. They changed the receivers out for proven players. No different results mean they need to change the quarterback.

The good news is that the Bengals defense has been weak against the run so Jones-Drew gets the green flag this week. And even Gabbert may look nearly adequate against a defense that has been giving up a could scores to every opposing quarterback. In the end, that won't be enough again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 29 13 32 31 24 32
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 30 29 16 26 28 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @CLE 0000022011 **
Bortles has a marvelous fantasy schedule down the stretch, and it begins here with Cleveland. The Browns rank 10th when rushing touchdowns have been removed, but it's still the 13th-best with them included. One out of every 10.3 completions makes it into the end zone, or two per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC @CLE 4012100000 *
Cleveland ranks in the middle of the league against running backs in in basically every notable category. The position has averaged 87 rushing yards, 47.8 receiving gains, and a TD every 42.3 offensive touches.

Update: Fournette was limited Wednesday and Thursday before sitting Friday. He's a gametime call.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC @CLE 1003300000 ***
Yeldon sees some spell work and checkdowns but isn't a viable fantasy play when Leonard Fournette is alive and well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @CLE 004501000 **
The Browns are better against wideouts than perception suggests. Since Week 5, the position has averaged only nine catches a game for 131.5 yards. This is the second-best defense to face if you're looking for a WR TD, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC @CLE 003400000 ***
Cole isn't likely to have enough of a role to warrant fantasy lineup inclusion, even with Allen Hurns on the mend. The matchup isn't all that appealing, either, even though it is the Browns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC @CLE 002300000 *
Assuming he is indeed active for Week 11, all signs point to Westbrook having a bit role. Avoid him for now, but he could be worthy of stashing if Keelan Cole fails to step up with Allen Hurns out.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @CLE 004301000 ***
Cleveland has been a disaster against the position all year. This is currently the seventh-best matchup from a defense that has given up 6.3 catches a game to the position. No Allen Hurns could mean more looks for Lewis. He's a sly play in deep leagues.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC @CLE 1133 ***
Fresh off of nailing the game winner vs. his former boss, Lambo draws Cleveland's top-five matchup for exploitation. Kickers have made 10 of 11 field goals and eighth of 10 PATs against the Browns.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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