FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: CIN 27, JAC 17 (Line:CIN by 1)

Players to Watch: Andrew Hawkins

Player Updated: Laurent Robinson

The 2-1 Bengals are on a roll with 34+ points in these last two weeks and travel to face the 1-2 Jaguars who come off their first win thanks to the Colts. Problem this week is that the Bengals can post points and the Jaguars have to rely on Maurice Jones-Drew to just about do everything for the offense.

The Bengals won 30-20 at Jacksonville last year.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC ----- 13 @SD -----
5 MIA ----- 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE ----- 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT ----- 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 280,2
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Brandon LaFell 5-60
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bengals hit a softer spot in their schedule with upcoming games against the Jaguars, Dolphins and Browns. Andy Dalton had a predictably started the year with a bad game in Baltimore but now has two straight 310+ yard, three touchdown efforts. He still throws one interception each week but never more. The season started with only A.J. Green as a known weapon but Dalton is creating new and effective other receivers.

Andrew Hawkins is becoming a deadly slot receiver who is incredible in open field. The diminutive wideout has scored in each of the last two games and while he only had two catches in each game, he averaged about 30 yards per catch. Hawkins is a very nice find already on the roster who is making a difference. Armon Binns has been improved these last two weeks as well. The common bond here is Dalton who is stepping up in his second season and already improved from his rookie season that ended up in the playoffs.

Jermaine Gresham scored last week and has been solid enough around 40 yards per week but is not becoming an elite tight end thanks to Dalton using the previously unknown wide receivers so well. Granted - just two games against the Browns and Redskins but the offense has looked as good as could be hoped. And that should continue here for the next three games at the least.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has two scores on the season but the yardage has been decreasing weekly and he was held to just 38 yards on 17 carries last week. That should change this week against a Jaguars defense weak against the run. This is a good test for Dalton since the Jaguars rank well against quarterbacks but Dalton is playing at a high level and just last week the Colts posted 313 pass yards on them with two touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 8 27 1 17 17 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 10 30 9 12 23 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN MIA 20000026020 ***
Quarterbacks have been efficient against Miami, which is what you can expect out of Dalton. Quarterbacks have thrown only one interception to four touchdown passes. Dalton is a viable bye-week replacement for Aaron Rodgers owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN MIA 8011100000 ***
Hill is touchdown-reliant, as you probably know by know ... Miami has yielded only one rushing touchdown on 87 attempts, which is the highest ratio of any team. Play Hill as a risky flex.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN MIA 3005300000 ***
On the Saints have allowed more rushing yards than Miami, but the Dolphins have not been broken by backs. The position has scored only one offensive touchdown, and Miami has held receiving backs to a mere 68 yards. Bernard is on the upswing but may have a regression game ahead. Play him and bear this in mind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN MIA 0091202000 ***
Green could go off against the Miami defense. This unit has permitted the sixth most fantasy points per game to the position, which stems from a 47-575-3 line in three games. Start him with confidence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN MIA 005600000 ***
Boyd's playing time fell from 79 percent in Week 2 to 36 percent last weekend. Watch how this one plays out with him on your bench. The Dolphins offer a good matchup, so it's a shame he isn't being targeted enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN MIA 004500000 ***
LaFell benefits from the attention drawn by A.J. Green, and this matchup is a prime place to deploy him in DFS action or as a flex in regular PPR leagues. Miami has allowed the third most receptions to WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE C.J. Uzomah, CIN MIA 003300000 ***
Avoid any Bengals tight end not named Tyler Eifert (who isn't expected to play, by the way). Miami has allowed only one TE TD in three games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN MIA 1133 ***
Miami's strong ranking against kickers is somewhat lucky. They have allowed the second most field goal attempts but only six of the 10 have split the uprights. Nugent is a low-end PK1 choice but comes with some risk if Cincinnati's offense doesn't have a problem scoring touchdowns.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN ----- 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars mounted a nice comeback to take down the Colts last week but this team still looks far too similar to 2011 when Maurice Jones-Drew had to provide all the offensive punch and Blaine Gabbert ended as the worst ranked starting quarterback. The win in Indy happened thanks in no small part to Jones-Drew running for 177 yards and one score on 27 carries. He was held to fewer than 20 carries in the two previous losses and that alone is the key here. Either stop Jones-Drew and you stop the Jaguars or you force the Jaguars to throw and limit the damage that the run game can do. There is really no reason not to load up the defense against one running back when facing the Jaguars.

Gabbert passes for a respectable - if not shocking - 260 yards and two scores in Minnesota. But these last two weeks were vintage Gabbert - one score and only 208 pass yards from both weeks combined. Gabbert has only completed 40 of 79 passes. Last week would have been another 80 yard debacle were it not for the 80-yard fluke touchdown by Cecil Shorts.

Second year and the passing game is still in shambles. It is not the receivers fault. Laurent Robinson had no catches last week and only eight on the season. Justin Blackmon has gone from being the best college wideout in the NFL draft to producing just one catch for seven yards over the last two weeks. The entire passing game here is absent any fantasy value for the second season in a row. They changed the receivers out for proven players. No different results mean they need to change the quarterback.

The good news is that the Bengals defense has been weak against the run so Jones-Drew gets the green flag this week. And even Gabbert may look nearly adequate against a defense that has been giving up a could scores to every opposing quarterback. In the end, that won't be enough again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 29 13 32 31 24 32
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 30 29 16 26 28 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC IND 10000032020 ***
Despite all of its injury problems on defense to begin the year, Indy's defense of quarterbacks has been respectable -- bend (936 yards) but not break (3 TDs). Bortles racked up five total touchdowns and no interceptions (two fumbles lost) versus this group last season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC IND 3011100000 **
Ivory's status for Week 4 is unknown after suffering foot and ankle injuries last week. Check back Friday for an update on his status. The presumption is that he will play, but limitations may exist. Consider him a wildcard in non-PPR leagues against this mushy run D.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC IND 3005300000 ***
Indy has yielded six touchdowns (two receiving) to RBs this year, helping pave the way for the second worst fantasy RB defense. Yeldon, on his own merits, is barely playable. The matchup offers a glimmer of hope.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC IND 006801000 ***
Don't bench your studs, as Robinson proved last week after a slow start to the year. Indy has not allowed a WR touchdown yet but has given up 42 receptions for 537 yards. Robinson caught five balls for 84 yards and a TD in two games last year against the Colts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC IND 005700000 ***
Indy's defense somehow weathered the storm of having so many defensive backfield injuries and hasn't permitted a WR touchdown this season. Hurns, though, remains a fine PPR play given their high volume of receptions allowed (42).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC IND 004501000 **
The Colts rank in the middle of the league against tight ends, which stems from permitting a 15-186-1 line. Thomas is in that fringe territory for weekly starters. Look for a quality showing across the pond in Week 4.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC IND 2222 ***
The Colts are the third easiest matchup for kickers to exploit, and it could be worse for Indy if opposing feet were more accurate. Kickers have gone 8-for-9 on FGAs and 7-for-9 on XPAs.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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