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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: CLE 13, BAL 27 (Line: BAL by 13)

Player to Watch: Jordan Cameron

The 0-3 Browns are hitting an even tougher spot in their schedule with road games to Baltimore and New York while the 2-1 Ravens come off their big win over the Patriots. Ravens swept the Browns in 2001, winning 24-10 at Cleveland and 20-14 at home. Hard to imagine that the Ravens could be so emotionally spent from beating the Pats that they could not rise up and take this win. The Browns have not won this matchup in the last eight meetings.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 16-17 10 BYE -----
2 @CIN 27-34 11 @DAL -----
3 BUF 14-24 12 PIT -----
4 @BAL ----- 13 @OAK -----
5 @NYG ----- 14 KC -----
6 CIN ----- 15 WAS -----
7 @IND ----- 16 @DEN -----
8 SD ----- 17 @PIT -----
9 BAL ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CLE @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 10 230
RB Trent Richardson 50,1 5-40
WR Davone Bess 4-40
WR Josh Gordon 3-40
WR Greg Little 3-30
TE Jordan Cameron 3-30
TE Kellen Davis 2-20,1
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 1 XP
PK Shayne Graham 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: Sure, the Browns are winless yet again but there are hints of some progress being made at least on offense. Pat Haden remains out for three more games so the defense is not at full strength. But the rookie Brandon Weeden has thrown a score or two in each of his last two games and passes for 322 yards in Cincinnati and then 237 yards against the visiting Bills. Recalling last year, those are huge numbers. Weeden is trying to make so with a less than stellar set of receivers.

That is even more evident when HC Pat Shurmur comes out and says he is considering sending Greg Little to the bench for dropping passes. Little is clearly the best receiver on the team, dropping passes aside. Josh Gordon is providing nearly nothing to the offense and belongs on the league waiver wire. But at least Jordan Cameron had 45 yards on five catches last week and the second-year tight end may be developing something with Weeden.

Mohamed Massaquoi has been the best receiver through the first two games but suffered a hamstring injury and may not play. Travis Benjamin caught a score last week but only has three catches on the season. The problem in Cleveland is no longer the quarterback, it remains with the receivers.

Trent Richardson scored a touchdown in each of the last two games though he only gained 27 yards on 12 runs against the Bills. But he added six catches for 24 yards to preserve his fantasy value. Richardson is not the problem either, he just too rarely reaches the line of scrimmage without finding multiple defenders in his way.

Playing in Baltimore is about as bad as it is going to get for the Browns though Richardson remains a moderate start thanks to his scoring and receiving ability.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 28 10 26 22 21 8
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 18 16 29 20 17 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brian Hoyer, CLE @PIT 0000018002 **
Figure Hoyer gets a chance to show what he can do as the #2 next year after the Cards bring in someone else.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Thaddeus Lewis, CLE @PIT 0000014002 *
The practice squad player got called up with both Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy questionable with shoulder injuries. Needless to say, not a great start no matter what.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Montario Hardesty, CLE @PIT 4002100000 **
With Richardson out, Hardesty will take the start in maybe the worst possible venue to play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Little, CLE @PIT 002200000 ****
Little was held to just one catch for six yards in the last meeting. This may not be that good.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kellen Davis, CLE @PIT 002200000 ***
On the one hand, only three teams have given up as many TE TDs as the Lions. On the other hand, the Bears ignore the position as evidenced by Davis' one catch for three yards in the earlier meeting. So once again follow Jay Cutler's lead and ignore Chicago tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Shayne Graham, CLE @PIT 2233 ***
The Texans put up 29 on Indy a fortnight ago, 17 of them courtesy of Graham. With Houston still playing for home field, plenty of reasons to like Graham's prospects again this time around.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, CLE @PIT 2100 ****
Never in PIT.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK -----
2 @PHI 23-24 11 @PIT -----
3 NE 31-30 12 @SD -----
4 CLE ----- 13 PIT -----
5 @KC ----- 14 @WAS -----
6 DAL ----- 15 DEN -----
7 @HOU ----- 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 300,2
RB Ray Rice 120,1 4-40
WR Jacoby Jones 3-50
WR Torrey Smith 5-90,1
TE Dennis Pitta 5-50
PK Justin Tucker 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Ravens came within a point of being 3-0 and now play their third home game in the first four weeks. The only real concern in this game is that the Ravens get complacent and allow a trap game to happen. This will be the easiest game the Ravens play this year.

Joe Flacco gets a chance to light up the scoreboard this week against a secondary that will be without CB Pat Haden and that has allowed eight passing scores over just the first three weeks. Flacco has been passing better this season with six scores already against only two interceptions. This is a great time to face the Browns.

Ray Rice has been the most productive running back this year and he has been golden every week. As if he needed any advantage, Rice rushed for at least 130 yards in both meetings with the Browns last season. He's a lock for a big game this week.

Torrey Smith was the big story last Sunday when he lost his brother on Saturday night and elected to play in the late game on Sunday. Smith had been relatively quiet this year with only two catches in each of the first two games but then posted six receptions for 127 yards and two touchdowns in honor of his brother. Anquan Boldin still has not had more than 63 yards in a game and is hard to give a fantasy start with such low stats. The player deserving the attention is Dennis Pitta who no longer splits work with Ed Dickson. Pitta scored twice already this year and so far has never failed to make at least five catches per game. Between Pitta and Rice, there has not been much left over for the wideouts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 5 6 14 3 4 11
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 28 18 30 10 12 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL @CIN 0000023011 ***
Flacco opened the season with 299 and 2 against the Bengals, but that was at home; he's topped 232 yards just once on the road (200 yards just twice) and thrown multiple touchdowns in one of six away from Baltimore. The Ravens are playing for seeding so expect to see the regulars, with Flacco sticking around at least long enough to collect the 217 yards he needs to reach 4,000 for the season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ray Rice, BAL @CIN 6013200000 ***
The 30 touches Rice saw last week should keep Jim Caldwell employed for at least another week, but with the postseason looming that large a workload here would surprise. Rice had 13 touches in the earlier meeting with Cincy but scored twice on them so fantasy owners didn't complain. This time around, they may not be so forgiving.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bernard Pierce, BAL @CIN 3002100000 ***
Pierce's 123 yards last week were a season high for a Baltimore back, and with the postseason looming he could take another bite out of Ray Rice's workload this week--just not as big or as productive.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, BAL @CIN 005701000 ***
Smith scored last week against the Giants but will find the going tougher against a solid Cincy secondary that's allowed only four WR TDs in the past two months.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dennis Pitta, BAL @CIN 005500000 ***
Pitta scored in the earlier meeting with Cincy, but the Bengals haven't allowed a tight end touchdown since Week 9 so a repeat performance might be asking a bit much.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL @CIN 3222 ***
Tucker is seeing multiple opportunities more often than not, but with Baltimore's offense going through some changes you're bound to find bigger numbers elsewhere.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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