Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: MIA 13, ARI 27 (Line: ARI by 6)

Players to Watch: Ryan Williams

Player Updated: Reggie Bush, Beanie Wells, Ryan Williams

The 1-2 Dolphins are still struggling with their rookie quarterback still learning the ropes and the defense not quite good enough make up the difference. The 3-0 Cardinals are already one of the biggest surprises of the season having beaten the Seahawks, Patriots and Eagles. And doing it with a vastly underrated defense. Each week brings big upsets but this one seems far too unlikely to give the Fins a chance.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 190,1
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40

Pregame Notes: The offense is still trying to come together with Ryan Tannehill at the helm but he only has one passing touchdown on the season while hanging around 200 pass yards every week. To his credit, he has only thrown one interception in the last two games and been sacked just once as well. But the problem is that this offense requires a very capable quarterback that can use a multitude of average receivers. The Fins just are not there yet.

Reggie Bush has been the star of the offense but suffered a knee sprain last week. He has no structural damage and is even expected to practice this week and play. If Bush cannot go, the Fins rely on both Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller. Practice reports will clear up the status for Bush but it appears that he dodged a bullet and will return this week. Bush is averaging just over six yards per carry and his absence was one reason why the Jets beat them last week.

The receivers here about as productive as the ones in Jacksonville but without all that talent and potential. Brian Hartline has the sole decent game with 111 yards against the Raiders but there has only been one passing touchdown all year and that went to Anthony Fasano. Davone Bess offers moderate yardage at best and there are no other receivers of any consequence on the roster. The entirety of the passing game is throwing to Hartline, Bess and Reggie Bush with maybe one or two completions to Fasano.

The only fantasy value here is Reggie Bush. The only real weapon is Bush. He is probably already planning on his holdout next summer (pssst - Reggie. Talk to MJD first).

This week heading into Arizona is not going to be pretty. The Cardinals defense is playing at a high level and now are at home against the worst passing attack in the league. We can only hope that Bush survives the game.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 3 31 27 29 22
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 7 4 10 7 21 9

QB Matt Moore, MIA NE 0000022011 ***
This is the second worst matchup a quarterback will find in Week 17 when using data from the past five games. New England has allowed averages of a TD and only 15.9 fantasy points per outing.
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA NE 3011100000 ***
Drake is talented but sees limited work. New England isn't a great matchup, but maybe his change-of-pace nature can overcome the hurdle.

Update: Drake could see a few more utilization with Jay Ajayi listed as questionable.
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA NE 4001100000 ***
New England has dominated running backs of late, albeit mostly inferior competition. This is the second worst matchup using data from the last five games. Only one of the last 118 touches by a running back has scored on the Pats.

Update: Ajayi is questionable but practiced in full Friday and should be active.
WR Kenny Stills, MIA NE 001301000 ***
New England has turned it around against wideouts of late. Stills is a weekly TD flier play in non-PPR formats, but gamers considering him must be willing to accept a paltry performance when taking the risk.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA NE 005600000 ***
Matt Moore is under center again, and Parker has done fine with the quarterback switch. The Patriots gave up 106 yards on eight catches to Parker in Week 2, but the position has scored only three times in the last five games versus this defense.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NE 004500000 ***
The Patriots have given up only three TDs in the past five games to receivers. Landry had a big PPR day in Week 2 by catching 10 of 13 targets for 137 yards from Ryan Tannehill. Matt Moore gets a crack at the visiting Pats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA NE 2222 ***
Four teams have been worse against the position than New England in the last five weeks. The Patriots have given up only five XPAs and 7-for-10 from long range.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA ----- 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL ----- 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF ----- 15 DET -----
7 @MIN ----- 16 CHI -----
8 SF ----- 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert 220,1
QB Carson Palmer 270,2
RB Chris Johnson 20 5-30
WR Larry Fitzgerald 8-100,2
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-50
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The offense may not be explosive quite yet but at 3-0 it does not need to be. The Cardinals defense has been dominating and Patrick Peterson is becoming the new Darrelle Revis (the one with intact ligaments before last week). This has become a dominating defense and that was against the Patriots in their stadium. The Eagles came down last week and was outscored by the Cardinals defense on one play.

Kevin Kolb is now 3-0 and John Skelton is going to have to wait because there is no chance the Cardinals upset an offense that is already working. Kolb has thrown a score in every game but only posts game manager sort of yardage. Then again - he still has not thrown an interception. He's not the fantasy darling we all want but he is a winning quarterback running the Cards well enough to be undefeated.

Beanie Wells left with a toe injury last week that is now thought to be a turf toe. That can can him out of games and linger for many weeks. The big news here though is that Ryan Williams had been marginal in sharing with Wells and alluded to his old patella injury as being on his mind and making him a little tentative. But once Wells last the Eagles game, Williams ripped off several nice runs and ended with 83 yards on 13 carries. In Arizona, that is equivalent to Jamaal Charles gaining 233 yards. Should Wells miss games or just play them even worse than he would anyway, the door may be opening for Williams to take charge. It won't take much to dislodge oft-injury Wells and Williams had the talent coming into the league.

Larry Fitzgerald finally showed up for 2012 when he gained 114 yards and a score on nine receptions against the Eagles. He is still the only real receiver for the Cards though Michael Floyd has his first NFL catch go for a touchdown last Sunday. It was his only catch this year.

A dominating defense, the promise of better rushing with Williams means Fitzgerald won't be all alone trying to win games. It also means defenses won't load up on him and only him. The Dolphins are bringing in a weaker offense that should be chewed up by the defensive effort. That means the Cardinals offense should remain in the drivers seat this week. I like a defensive score in this game.

Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 23 31 20 23 16 4
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 14 20 14 15 27 21

QB Carson Palmer, ARI @LAR 0000026021 ***
Quarterbacks have shredded LA in the last five weeks, tossing 13 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. The Rams have surrendered the third highest per-game points figure in the league during that time. Palmer shouldn't have much trouble producing ample points for gamers.
RB David Johnson, ARI @LAR 8015501000 ***
Johnson's sheer destruction of the NFL continues. He posted one of his quietest games of the year in Week 4 against the Rams, but he is playing on a different level at this point.
WR J.J. Nelson, ARI @LAR 004501000 ***
Lightning fast, Nelson is a TD threat practically with every catch. He wasn't much of a factor in Week 4's meeting, but you could do much worse filling a flex spot. The Rams are the fourth most generous defense of wideouts this week when using data since Week 11.
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @LAR 005500000 ***
Only three teams have been worse against wideouts in the past five games, so Fitz should be a strong start. The vet went for 62 yards on five catches in the Week 4 meeting, but LA was playing OK football back then.
WR John Brown, ARI @LAR 002300000 *
Brown is still fighting his sickle-cell trait that weakens his legs. Avoid him in all formats.
TE Jermaine Gresham, ARI @LAR 004400000 ***
Gresham wasn't involved in the first matchup, and he's a so-so play in PPR this time around the Rams have been sound against TEs, giving up just one score on the last 22 catches faced.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, ARI @LAR 1111 ***
Seattle provides Dawson the fourth worst matchup, on paper, entering the week. While all 12 XPAs faced in the last five weeks have been good, only four of seven three-pointers connected.

CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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