FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: MIA 13, ARI 27 (Line: ARI by 6)

Players to Watch: Ryan Williams

Player Updated: Reggie Bush, Beanie Wells, Ryan Williams

The 1-2 Dolphins are still struggling with their rookie quarterback still learning the ropes and the defense not quite good enough make up the difference. The 3-0 Cardinals are already one of the biggest surprises of the season having beaten the Seahawks, Patriots and Eagles. And doing it with a vastly underrated defense. Each week brings big upsets but this one seems far too unlikely to give the Fins a chance.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 20 180,1
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 190,1
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40

Pregame Notes: The offense is still trying to come together with Ryan Tannehill at the helm but he only has one passing touchdown on the season while hanging around 200 pass yards every week. To his credit, he has only thrown one interception in the last two games and been sacked just once as well. But the problem is that this offense requires a very capable quarterback that can use a multitude of average receivers. The Fins just are not there yet.

Reggie Bush has been the star of the offense but suffered a knee sprain last week. He has no structural damage and is even expected to practice this week and play. If Bush cannot go, the Fins rely on both Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller. Practice reports will clear up the status for Bush but it appears that he dodged a bullet and will return this week. Bush is averaging just over six yards per carry and his absence was one reason why the Jets beat them last week.

The receivers here about as productive as the ones in Jacksonville but without all that talent and potential. Brian Hartline has the sole decent game with 111 yards against the Raiders but there has only been one passing touchdown all year and that went to Anthony Fasano. Davone Bess offers moderate yardage at best and there are no other receivers of any consequence on the roster. The entirety of the passing game is throwing to Hartline, Bess and Reggie Bush with maybe one or two completions to Fasano.

The only fantasy value here is Reggie Bush. The only real weapon is Bush. He is probably already planning on his holdout next summer (pssst - Reggie. Talk to MJD first).

This week heading into Arizona is not going to be pretty. The Cardinals defense is playing at a high level and now are at home against the worst passing attack in the league. We can only hope that Bush survives the game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 3 31 27 29 22
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 7 4 10 7 21 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, MIA @NYJ 0000024020 ***
Quarterbacks have averaged 23.3 fantasy points in the first two weeks against the Jets, stemming from five TDs surrendered. Cutler should do just fine, especially if Jarvis Landry escaped last week's heavy workload unscathed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA @NYJ 8012100000 ***
Ajayi posted 22 fantasy points in Week 9 and only 5.1 visiting the Jets in Week 15 last season. The powerful back started productive start this year and is a fine play in any format.

Update: After sitting Wednesday and Thursday with a sore knee, Ajayi was a full-go in Friday's session and should be fine, despite a questionable status.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @NYJ 007801000 ***
Despite being questionable with a knee injury last week, Landry returned with a bang for PPR players. This week, the Jets are on the docket. While New York has allowed only 15 receptions to receivers, four of them have found the end zone.

Update: Landry is questionable but practiced fully Friday and should be just fine. Expect this pattern to continue into the near future.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA @NYJ 003501000 ***
This one just feels like a Kenny Stills game. The Jets have given up barely any catches to receivers and have allowed a league-high four WR TDs. There are six teams that haven't even given up a score yet to the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA @NYJ 004400000 ***
Parker faces a Jets team that allowed four TDs in two games to wideouts, on only 15 receptions. The dynamic wideout caught just three balls for 25 yards in the two meetings last year. He has a huge upside this week but could disappoint once again.

Update: Parker is fine, even though he's listed as questionable. He was a full participant Friday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, MIA @NYJ 003300000 **
The Jets have given up 11 catches in two games to the position, including one TD, but Thomas has a higher risk than potential reward factor.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, MIA @NYJ 1133 ***
The Jets have been surprisingly good against kickers, mainly because most of the points against come from allowing nine extra points to only one field goal.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA ----- 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL ----- 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF ----- 15 DET -----
7 @MIN ----- 16 CHI -----
8 SF ----- 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert 220,1
QB Carson Palmer 270,2
RB Chris Johnson 20 5-30
WR Larry Fitzgerald 8-100,2
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-50
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The offense may not be explosive quite yet but at 3-0 it does not need to be. The Cardinals defense has been dominating and Patrick Peterson is becoming the new Darrelle Revis (the one with intact ligaments before last week). This has become a dominating defense and that was against the Patriots in their stadium. The Eagles came down last week and was outscored by the Cardinals defense on one play.

Kevin Kolb is now 3-0 and John Skelton is going to have to wait because there is no chance the Cardinals upset an offense that is already working. Kolb has thrown a score in every game but only posts game manager sort of yardage. Then again - he still has not thrown an interception. He's not the fantasy darling we all want but he is a winning quarterback running the Cards well enough to be undefeated.

Beanie Wells left with a toe injury last week that is now thought to be a turf toe. That can can him out of games and linger for many weeks. The big news here though is that Ryan Williams had been marginal in sharing with Wells and alluded to his old patella injury as being on his mind and making him a little tentative. But once Wells last the Eagles game, Williams ripped off several nice runs and ended with 83 yards on 13 carries. In Arizona, that is equivalent to Jamaal Charles gaining 233 yards. Should Wells miss games or just play them even worse than he would anyway, the door may be opening for Williams to take charge. It won't take much to dislodge oft-injury Wells and Williams had the talent coming into the league.

Larry Fitzgerald finally showed up for 2012 when he gained 114 yards and a score on nine receptions against the Eagles. He is still the only real receiver for the Cards though Michael Floyd has his first NFL catch go for a touchdown last Sunday. It was his only catch this year.

A dominating defense, the promise of better rushing with Williams means Fitzgerald won't be all alone trying to win games. It also means defenses won't load up on him and only him. The Dolphins are bringing in a weaker offense that should be chewed up by the defensive effort. That means the Cardinals offense should remain in the drivers seat this week. I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 23 31 20 23 16 4
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 14 20 14 15 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Palmer, ARI DAL 0000024021 ***
After not giving up a TD to Eli Manning, Dallas was assaulted four times by Trevor Siemian. The Cowboys secondary is an injury-marred mess at the moment. Palmer should throw it a bunch in this contest. Play him without a better option present.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, ARI DAL 600000000 ***
The Cards may give him more work this week. Johnson doesn't see much work in the passing game and isn't an ideal red zone choice. Dallas has allowed just under 100 yards rushing per game and only one TD to RBs on the ground so far.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Ellington, ARI DAL 1003300000 ***
Ellington has a good matchup, so there's that going for him, but little else. Too few touches makes him a sketchy fantasy choice.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kerwynn Williams, ARI DAL 200000000 ***
Williams isn't a trustworthy fantasy choice in any format. Chris Johnson should have a larger role this week, and Dallas isn't a total slouch against the position. Williams shouldn't be counted on without showing more.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI DAL 006701000 ***
Dallas is facing a mess of backend injuries on defense, which bodes well for Fitz to get on track with a big day. Even after blanketing the Giants receivers in Week 1, Dallas still rates as a top-12 opponent to exploit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR J.J. Nelson, ARI DAL 005601000 ***
In non-PPR, Nelson is the No. 2 scorer through two weeks among wideouts. Dallas will focus more on stopping Fitz, which makes Nelson a viable play in all formats. The Cowboys were decimated by injuries in the secondary last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, ARI DAL 004400000 ***
Brown is a role player who at least has a good matchup against a Dallas secondary that has been brutalized by injuries.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, ARI DAL 2222 ***
Dallas has allowed only two field goal attempts this year. The six XPAs against rank in the top five of the most yielded by any team.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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