FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: MIA 13, ARI 27 (Line: ARI by 6)

Players to Watch: Ryan Williams

Player Updated: Reggie Bush, Beanie Wells, Ryan Williams

The 1-2 Dolphins are still struggling with their rookie quarterback still learning the ropes and the defense not quite good enough make up the difference. The 3-0 Cardinals are already one of the biggest surprises of the season having beaten the Seahawks, Patriots and Eagles. And doing it with a vastly underrated defense. Each week brings big upsets but this one seems far too unlikely to give the Fins a chance.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI ----- 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 20 180,1
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 190,1
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40

Pregame Notes: The offense is still trying to come together with Ryan Tannehill at the helm but he only has one passing touchdown on the season while hanging around 200 pass yards every week. To his credit, he has only thrown one interception in the last two games and been sacked just once as well. But the problem is that this offense requires a very capable quarterback that can use a multitude of average receivers. The Fins just are not there yet.

Reggie Bush has been the star of the offense but suffered a knee sprain last week. He has no structural damage and is even expected to practice this week and play. If Bush cannot go, the Fins rely on both Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller. Practice reports will clear up the status for Bush but it appears that he dodged a bullet and will return this week. Bush is averaging just over six yards per carry and his absence was one reason why the Jets beat them last week.

The receivers here about as productive as the ones in Jacksonville but without all that talent and potential. Brian Hartline has the sole decent game with 111 yards against the Raiders but there has only been one passing touchdown all year and that went to Anthony Fasano. Davone Bess offers moderate yardage at best and there are no other receivers of any consequence on the roster. The entirety of the passing game is throwing to Hartline, Bess and Reggie Bush with maybe one or two completions to Fasano.

The only fantasy value here is Reggie Bush. The only real weapon is Bush. He is probably already planning on his holdout next summer (pssst - Reggie. Talk to MJD first).

This week heading into Arizona is not going to be pretty. The Cardinals defense is playing at a high level and now are at home against the worst passing attack in the league. We can only hope that Bush survives the game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 3 31 27 29 22
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 7 4 10 7 21 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Moore, MIA @NE 0000022011 ***
Moore would start if Jay Cutler is held out. There could be some slight chance of production through volume, especially if the Pats jump out earlier. Miami tends to play New England tough in Florida. It would take a crazy scenario for Moore to find fantasy lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, MIA @NE 00000000 *
Cutler left last week with a presumed concussion and is uncertain for Week 12.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA @NE 4002100000 **
Drake has proven to offer almost nothing to fantasy games without a big play. New England has given up very few of those of late, and this is the seventh-toughest matchup of the week -- only one in the last 85 carries has scored. Yardage has been easy to come by, though, at 114.8 per contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Damien Williams, MIA @NE 2003200000 ***
New England has permitted only one TD over the past 85 totes by the position. Williams is not an ideal fantasy play without bye weeks. The Pats rank seventh against the position and second-best in offensive TDs allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @NE 006601000 ***
QB Matt Moore appears likely to start. In PPR, this is the sixth-best matchup based on New England giving up the most catches a game to the position. It also rates sixth in yardage permitted. Only one of the every 15.5 catches has scored, though, making this a negative matchup in that department. Landry was good for 22-plus PPR points in both meetings last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA @NE 005600000 ***
Parker landed 13 balls for 151 yards in the two games last season. New England has permitted one score a game in the past five weeks, and this is the best matchup for recording catches. It's sixth for yardage gained per week. Matt Moore appears likely to start at quarterback.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA @NE 004500000 ***
Stills can shake free with the best of them as we saw last week. In 2016, he scored in each game vs. the Pats, but neither contest resulted in more than 41 aerial yards for the downfield weapon. The Patriots have conceded a TD every 15.5 catches, or one per game to wideouts in their past four outings. This is a better matchup for PPR types.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, MIA @NE 003200000 ***
New England has dominated tight ends through and through. None of the catches since Week 6 have scored, and no team has given up fewer receptions or yardage a game.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, MIA @NE 3311 ***
This is the worst matchup for PATs and fourth-hardest for field goal tries. Only two teams have provide more fantasy points per contest.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA ----- 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL ----- 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF ----- 15 DET -----
7 @MIN ----- 16 CHI -----
8 SF ----- 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert 220,1
QB Carson Palmer 270,2
RB Adrian Peterson 80 2-10
WR Larry Fitzgerald 8-100,2
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-50
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The offense may not be explosive quite yet but at 3-0 it does not need to be. The Cardinals defense has been dominating and Patrick Peterson is becoming the new Darrelle Revis (the one with intact ligaments before last week). This has become a dominating defense and that was against the Patriots in their stadium. The Eagles came down last week and was outscored by the Cardinals defense on one play.

Kevin Kolb is now 3-0 and John Skelton is going to have to wait because there is no chance the Cardinals upset an offense that is already working. Kolb has thrown a score in every game but only posts game manager sort of yardage. Then again - he still has not thrown an interception. He's not the fantasy darling we all want but he is a winning quarterback running the Cards well enough to be undefeated.

Beanie Wells left with a toe injury last week that is now thought to be a turf toe. That can can him out of games and linger for many weeks. The big news here though is that Ryan Williams had been marginal in sharing with Wells and alluded to his old patella injury as being on his mind and making him a little tentative. But once Wells last the Eagles game, Williams ripped off several nice runs and ended with 83 yards on 13 carries. In Arizona, that is equivalent to Jamaal Charles gaining 233 yards. Should Wells miss games or just play them even worse than he would anyway, the door may be opening for Williams to take charge. It won't take much to dislodge oft-injury Wells and Williams had the talent coming into the league.

Larry Fitzgerald finally showed up for 2012 when he gained 114 yards and a score on nine receptions against the Eagles. He is still the only real receiver for the Cards though Michael Floyd has his first NFL catch go for a touchdown last Sunday. It was his only catch this year.

A dominating defense, the promise of better rushing with Williams means Fitzgerald won't be all alone trying to win games. It also means defenses won't load up on him and only him. The Dolphins are bringing in a weaker offense that should be chewed up by the defensive effort. That means the Cardinals offense should remain in the drivers seat this week. I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 23 31 20 23 16 4
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 14 20 14 15 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blaine Gabbert, ARI JAC 10000018002 ***
A week after a career game, Gabbert takes on the second-worst opponent for fantasy quarterbacks. Avoid him in all setups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, ARI JAC 6011100000 ***
Jacksonville has given up three receiving scores to RBs but only one on the last 68 attempts. Consider this an optimistic projection. Jacksonville is the toughest team for rushing yards allowed per game (48) since Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI JAC 004400000 ***
As noted last week, Fitz is quarterback-proof. He probably isn't Jaguars-proof, though. None of the last 31 receptions by a wideout found the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR J.J. Nelson, ARI JAC 002300000 ***
Nelson barely touches the ball and hasn't scored in more than a month. The matchup is also stifling.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chad Williams, ARI JAC 002300000 ***
Williams will get his shot, according to his head coach. The Jags have surrendered the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers, including no scores since Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, ARI JAC 002300000 ***
Gresham has no fantasy utility and a tough matchup. Blaine Gabbert showed an affinity for rookie Ricky Seals-Jones to boot.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, ARI JAC 2211 ***
Jacksonville is easily the worst matchup for kickers. The position has averaged 1.75 possible fantasy points a game. The next closest opponent is at 4.75 possible points. The highest is at 12.4.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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