FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

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Prediction: NE 30, BUF 20 (Line: NE by 3.5)

Players to Watch: BUF RB's, T.J. Graham

Players Updated: C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Tashard Choice, Rob Gronkowski

The 1-2 Patriots have a losing record for the first time in ten years and chances are that has been realized by the players and coaches. This does not bode that well for the 2-1 Bills who have beaten the Chiefs and Browns. But the Pats lost 31-34 in Buffalo during week three of last year and later won 49-21 at home. Have to like the Pats here and man - a loss would just be unthinkable. The Patriots have won nine of the last ten meetings.

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Cardinals was a big surprise and while the loss to the Ravens was hardly a shock, it still sends the Patriots forward with a losing record. That makes two games in a row that Tom Brady passed for healthy yardage and yet only one touchdown when the team needed more. The absence of Aaron Hernandez should not matter this much but twice now defenses have been surprisingly effective at holding the Patriots at bay.

Stevan Ridley opened the season like a stud but then has been far less successful. With Hernandez out, the Patriots have taken to using Danny Woodhead more and that will likely continue until the tight end returns. The Pats are not throwing to the backs more though and Ridley still has a role. Woodhead even took a short touchdown away from Ridley. For now, the backfield is back to a committee.

Julian Edelman has been playing more and scored last week but injured his hand and may not be available. As this is the Patriots, knowing his status will largely be a crap shoot by design. After Edelman left the game, Wes Welker finally had a game reminiscent of his previous seasons when he ended with eight catches for 142 yards. Welker has not scored this season and has been less productive. Edelman being out has helped more than anything though Hernandez absence also has sparked at least a bit more use. Brandon Lloyd is another starter who has yet to score a touchdown though he too finally had a big game when he ended with nine receptions for 108 yards.

Rob Gronkowski was held to a freakishly low 21 yards on two catches which was because the Ravens pass rush forced Gronk into more of a blocking role. That won't be a problem this week. Kellen Winslow and Michael Hoomanawanui both had one catch while not doing much to make anyone forget about Hernandez. Deion Branch is back but not busy enough to merit fantasy attention.

The Bills have the better record but anything short of a big win here will be a surprise.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE	MIA	0	0	0	0	0	280	2	0
Brady is always a must start anyway but he settled for only 238 yards and one score in Miami this year. He's a lock for solid yardage and at least one score but this is less likely to become a monster game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Stevan Ridley, NE	MIA	80	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ridley will share the workload with the other three runners but he - and he alone - is consistent and productive enough to merit a start. Ridley already had 19-71 and a TD in Miami and should be good for more this week depending on the whims of Bill Belichick who may want to rest Ridley a little this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Danny Amendola, NE	MIA	0	0	5	40	0	0	0	0
Amendola will be the main focus of the defense that only allowed two TDs to visiting wideouts this year and rarely more than 50 yards. His last two road games combined for only three catches and 43 yards so leave Amendola on your bench this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Michael Jenkins, NE	MIA	0	0	3	40	0	0	0	0
Jenkins is a great downfield blocker and reliable short-game target, but he's turned neither into much in the way of fantasy contributions this year.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Aaron Hernandez, NE	MIA	0	0	7	90	0	0	0	0
Hernandez caught eight passes for 97 yards versus the Fins this year and should end up taking the tight end workload alone again this week. Always a safe start but Fins have only allowed two scores to the position all year.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE	MIA	2	2	3	3
At home versus the Fins has to be at least average points at worse.

Pregame Notes: The Bills are 2-1 thanks in no small part to playing the Chiefs and Browns but now hit a bad stretch of the schedule with facing the Pats, then hitting the road to San Francisco and Arizona. That'll knock down the 28 point average per game. Losing C.J. Spiller for this week is only going to make it harder and take away the one weapon that was actually working every week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for at least two scores each week but has been light on the yardage in part because C.J. Spiller was shredding the Jets and Chiefs. He posted 300+ yards in both meetings with the Patriots last season and scored twice in each. This week will be a new test for him since none of his receivers have gained more than 61 yards in a game so far and the running game is not going to be very effective.

C.J. Spiller avoided a broken clavicle as first feared but will still miss this week with a sprained shoulder. There is a chance that Fred Jackson plays at least a limited role this week as he returns from a knee sprain. Jackson said he thought he could return this week so I will include him in a limited fashion and update as his status gains any clarity.

The Bills receivers have been very light on the catches and yardage but Stevie Johnson has scored every week even though he is averaging just four catches for 57 yards per game. Scott Chandler once again started his season with touchdowns in the first two games but then ended with only 22 yards on two catches against the Browns. He has been held to four catches or less each week. This is just not as effective a passing offense as we saw in early 2011 and needs the running ability of Spiller or Jackson to keep the ball moving. The rookie T.J. Graham scored for the first time last week and had three catches for 24 yards. The Bills offense needs some diversification and Donald Jones is not providing much help.

Playing at home is favorable but the Patriots are 1-2 and that has be really, really focusing for them right now. The Pats are playing better defense this year and are going to be very motivated.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB C.J. Spiller, BUF	NYJ	120	1	4	30	0	0	0	0
Spiller has hit triple-digit yardage the last four times he's received double-digit touches. No reason for the Bills to use anyone else, so Spiller can continue to lay the groundwork for next season's top 10 fantasy ranking.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Stevie Johnson, BUF	NYJ	0	0	6	70	1	0	0	0
Johnson is 65 yards shy of a third straight 1,000-yard season; there's your motivation.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR T.J. Graham, BUF	NYJ	0	0	3	40	0	0	0	0
Graham is Plan B in the Buffalo passing game, for those times when Stevie Johnson isn't open.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Lee Smith, BUF	NYJ	0	0	2	20	0	0	0	0
With Scott Chandler out, Smith takes over the Bills' primary tight end duties. He's more of a blocker than a pass-catcher, so keep those expectations low.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Rian Lindell, BUF	NYJ	1	1	2	2
With Buffalo's offense struggling to break 20, you can do better for a fantasy kicker.

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