Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: NO 24, GB 37 (Line: GB by 8)

Players to Watch: Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers for any signs of yesteryear

Players Updated: Greg Jennings

This should be one of those great games to watch except these teams combine for a 1-5 record. Say what?

The Packers were shafted come off a tough win loss last week but the defense has been very good and in reality, facing the 49ers, Bears and Seahawks was a trip through some of the best defenses in the league. The Saints? More like ranked #32 on defense. The Saints offense has not been bad, but not quite as prolific as their opponents become whenever they play the defense that has truly earned the moniker "The Big Easy". Expect the Packer win and hope for points all around.

The Packers won their season opener over the Saints last year 42-34

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL -----
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK -----
3 KC 24-27 12 SF -----
4 @GB ----- 13 @ATL -----
5 SD ----- 14 @NYG -----
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB ----- 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN ----- 17 CAR -----
9 PHI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 300,3
RB Mark Ingram 30
RB John Kuhn 2-10

Pregame Notes: It is bad enough to be 0-3, but when that comes against the easy part of your schedule it is time to hit the alarm button. The defense has been horrible this year and just made Jamaal Charles look like he was playing in a different time dimension. Untouched for 91 yards? That is not how you draw up a defense. This is all a very bad portent for the future games and by this point we have to hope that Drew Brees and company maintains motivation so our fantasy teams can remain intact.

Brees has scored multiple touchdowns each week and thrown for healthy yardage in his quest to catch up to his opponents. He has five interceptions and is not scoring as well as last year but the scoreboard deficits continue to make him throw 40 or 50 times per game. There is no end in sight for how badly Brees is going to need to throw this year.

The rushing effort has produced only one touchdown by a running back and Pierre Thomas' 110 yards on nine carries in Carolina is a big aberration. Darren Sproles has eked out marginal fantasy value each week but Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas are a big risk to rely on. At least Thomas has been adding four receptions per game.

Jimmy Graham is still cranking out a touchdown every week but is averaging just six catches for 57 yards per week - hardly the sort of numbers that was expected when he was drafted in the first or second round in most leagues. Marques Colston has caught the funk as well with no scores and less than 50 yards these last two weeks. Lance Moore has two scores but only caught two passes for 30 yards in the last road game.

The players are mostly the same from the last couple of seasons but without Sean Peyton there to call plays, the offense has dropped off and the defense has gone into hiding. With Brees throwing in desperation every week, there is still fantasy value here. It is just not nearly as big or consistent as we have been accustomed. And there is no relief in sight because they never get the chance to play themselves.

Gaining Fantasy Points NO 4 4 24 6 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 8 12 4 4 6 23

QB Drew Brees, NO @KC 0000029022 ***
Brees is on the road against a sometimes awesome defense. The Chiefs present a statistically tough matchup, but their nine interceptions against is slightly skewed from Ryan Fitzpatrick's turnover party in Week 3. Either way, Brees is a "take the bad with the good" starter this time out.
RB Mark Ingram, NO @KC 5005200000 ***
This is a midrange matchup that leans positive. Ingram is a flex play or low-end No. 2. KC has allowed 23.4 points per game to RBs.
RB Travaris Cadet, NO @KC 003300000 ***
Cadet has minute PPR appeal, but the position has just one score on 24 catches against the Chiefs.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO @KC 004601000 ***
Marcus Peters probably will follow Cooks, so there's risk here. The speedy wideout just needs one step on a defender and it's a home run. KC, for the record, has allowed a TD every 11.5 catches to wideouts.
WR Michael Thomas, NO @KC 005601000 ***
What a season by the rookie! Not to take anything away from Thomas, but we have to give credit to Sean Payton and Co. for knowing how to ready a young receiver (Colston, Snead, Cooks). Anyway, KC will be busy with Cooks, leaving Thomas alone against a defense that has laid down for wideouts seeking paydirt.
WR Willie Snead IV, NO @KC 004600000 ***
Nine teams have been softer on receiver-on-DB crime, and Snead should steal a one of his own in the end zone. This D has allowed a score every 11.5 catches.
TE Coby Fleener, NO @KC 005600000 ***
Tight ends have managed a line of 15-162-1 against KC, making this the fourth strongest defense of the position. It's quite possibly fake, though, given the weak opponents that led to such a rating. Fleener is risky, as he has proven this year, so play him at your own risk.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Wil Lutz, NO @KC 2222 ***
KC isn't exactly a great matchup, but the Chiefs are good enough to slow the Saints on offense, thus giving Lutz ample field goal attempts.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO ----- 13 MIN -----
5 @IND ----- 14 DET -----
6 @HOU ----- 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL ----- 16 TEN -----
8 JAC ----- 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 30,1 300,2
WR Randall Cobb 2-30
WR Jordy Nelson 5-70,1
TE Jared Cook 6-60
PK Mason Crosby 3 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers are 1-2* but that comes after facing great defenses. And opponents have only averaged 18 points per week against them. This week should provide a big turnaround with a home game versus a nearly nonexistent defense. With three road games looming on the other side, this one really needs to be a win.

Aaron Rodgers was the early draft pick in every league but so far his performance has owners cringing. He opened with 303 yards and two scores on the 49ers but then was held to 219 yards and one score by the Bears and no touchdowns against the Seahawks when he ended with just 223 yards. Granted - tough defenses. But this was also a prolific offense above the vexations of match-ups. The Packers have already lost more games than they did in all of 2011 and it is only coming up on week four. But reason to expect a turnaround.

The Saints have been decent against the pass but only faced Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton and Matt Cassel. And Griffin posted 320 yards and two scores on them. Stomping on the Saints won't prove the Packers are back to form but it will make fantasy owners a lot happier.

Cedric Benson gained 81 yards on 20 carries against the Bears and then scored once on the Seahawks with 45 yards on 17 carries. The tough defenses in these first three games have been a factor but that should change this week - and if only for this week - because the Saints have allowed six touchdowns to running backs and over 100 rushing yards to every opponent. This is the best week to start Benson... maybe in his entire career. Last year the Packers rushed for 102 yards and two scores on the Saints.

Jermichael Finley has only scored once this season and averages only 43 yards per game. He's not been nearly the factor expected but then again everyone is off in this offense. Jordy Nelson was a scoring machine in 2011 and still has yet to reach the endzone. Greg Jennings not only has not scored, but his best game has been six catches for 35 yards.

This game is going to answer some important questions. Are the Packers just stumbling through a slate of great defenses or has the offense finally gone stale? There should be no excuse for some monster performances in a home game against a defense that has allowed 34 points per game.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 24 26 11 13 26 10
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 25 32 21 2 32 26

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB CHI 0000029020 ***
Rodgers was downright awful last week. In two games versus Chicago last year, he didn't top 202 yards passing and threw four TDs to one interception. Historically, he has torched the Bears. Chicago has allowed only seven passing and one rushing over six games. Despite the stats working against him, expect Rodgers to look more like Rodgers.
RB Don Jackson, GB CHI 400000000 *
Just called up from the practice squad but at least is familiar with the offense and could become a factor with Eddie Lacy now on IR. First game out complete unknown.
RB Knile Davis, GB CHI 200000000 *
Eddie Lacy is out. James Starks is out. Newcomer Knile Davis is in. The former Chief is a sneaky receiver and has some speed. The system isn't all that different from KC's. He's a wild gamble in any format.
WR Randall Cobb, GB CHI 006901000 ***
Chicago is a neutral matchup overall, but it has allowed 83 catches for 1,097 yards in six games. Five TDs against is what holds this matchup from becoming higher in the rates. Cobb is a fine play.
WR Jordy Nelson, GB CHI 006701000 ***
Nelson should contribute nicely against a team allowing 37.3 fantasy points per game to the position. Aaron Rodgers usually plays well against the Bears, and this one should show as a rebound effort for the duo.
WR Ty Montgomery, GB CHI 1005600000 ***
Montgomery should fill in for Davante Adams (questionable) if he cannot go ... there's some PPR appeal here against a team that has allowed 13.8 catches per game.
TE Richard Rodgers, GB CHI 002200000 ***
Chicago presents a matching that leans negative, but it could go either way for a better tight end. Rodgers struggles to gain separation and is low on the pecking order of any given play.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB CHI 3322 ***
Green Bay's offensive struggles, coupled with a short week, should lead to more field goal kicks than usual for Crosby. Chicago has allowed 11 field goal kicks, although only eight have gone through.

CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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