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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: NYG 23, PHI 24 (Line: PHI by 2)

Players to Watch: Ahmad Bradshaw, Brent Celek

Players Updated: Jeremy Maclin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Ramses Barden

This is a game where you can throw out records. The Giants won 29-16 in Philly last and then lost 10-17 at home. That was their only win in the last five trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles have won seven of the last eight times they met. For whatever reason, the Eagles matchup well with the Giants who are looking better as long as they stay in the NFC South. Flip a coin here.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI ----- 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE ----- 14 NO -----
6 @SF ----- 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS ----- 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL ----- 17 PHI -----
9 PIT ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 260,2
WR Brandon Marshall 5-60

Pregame Notes: The Giants are 2-1 but Eli Manning has only posted one big game - his 510 yard effort in the comeback win over the visiting Buccaneers. Otherwise he has just one score per week and only moderate passing yardage. Hakeem Nicks sat out last week because of his foot but plans on playing this week even if he only practices once. In his place Ramses Barden had a career best nine catches for 138 yards versus the Panthers. Nothing is ever so motivating as watching your backup look great.

Martellus Bennett remains the newest weapon that has caught a touchdown in every game and turns in around five catches for 70 yards in recent weeks. Bennett is supplying a needed and valuable additional outlet for Manning beyond the wide receivers. The Giants don't throw to the backs much so Bennett fills that shorter, over the middle role. So far he's been one of the best fantasy tight ends and a must start each week.

Ahmad Bradshaw has been cleared to practice after missing last week with a neck injury. Until he has a week of full practices and looks strong, you have to assume that Andre Brown remains in the rotation if not remains the primary back. Brown has shown power unlike anything that Bradshaw can provide even when healthy and as the only "big" back on the roster, should remain mostly on the field no matter what is done with Bradshaw and David Wilson. The problem of course is that we cannot know how much work Bradshaw gets and how much is taken away from Brown. Figuring that Wilson still gets a few token touches as well means those two nice games by Brown may end up his best of the season.

Domenik Hixon has been cleared to practice after suffering a minor concussion.

The Eagles have a top ten defense in almost every category and will be back at home. This is a game where previous performances are less indicative because the two teams know each other so well. The one main carryover that should be reliable is that Nnamdi Asomugha will cover Nicks who he handled last season when Nicks was healthy.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 7 12 2 9 1 13
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 3 9 6 5 26 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @WAS 0000022021 ***
Eli averaged basically 15 points per contest in the pair of 2016 games with Washington. This is the first meeting in 2017. Just one of his last six games has resulted in more than 20 points. The matchup rates as the second best in football, so there is at least some potential.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Orleans Darkwa, NYG @WAS 5002200000 ***
Darkwa keeps churning away. The Redskins provide a fine matchup for rushing TD frequency (7th), offensive TD scoring regularity (6th), and rushing yards (6th) a game. This is the fourth-best matchup in standard and eighth in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shane Vereen, NYG @WAS 1004200000 ***
Vereen draws a poor matchup for pass-catching types. He's best avoided in fantasy circles this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG @WAS 200000000 ***
Regardless of the brilliant matchup, Gallman belongs nowhere near a starting lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Roger Lewis, NYG @WAS 002201000 **
Gamers would have to be in a rough spot to consider Lewis. The matchup is statistically acceptable, but Washington is capable of playing better and has little to focus on stopping this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tavarres King, NYG @WAS 003400000 ***
King has no realistic fantasy utility in any situation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG @WAS 004300000 ***
Migraine headaches cost Shepard last week's game. Assume he will return in Week 12, but be cautious. The Redskins have given up six WR touchdowns in the last five games, and the 170.4 yards against ranks 11th. There is a touch of upside and more risk involved.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Evan Engram, NYG @WAS 005601000 ***
The matchup doesn't get much more appealing ... Washington has given up the third-most points in both formats, as well as third-highest average for receptions a game. It also is the fourth-softest for yardage and eighth for scoring. Engram should rebound nicely in Week 12.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Aldrick Rosas, NYG @WAS 0022 ***
The 'Skins have surrendered 20 combined kicks -- a whopping 16 of which were field goals -- since Week 6. This is the second-best matchup for three-pointers and No. 7 for PATs.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG ----- 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT ----- 14 @TB -----
6 DET ----- 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL ----- 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Darren Sproles 10 6-50,1
WR Alshon Jeffery 3-40
WR Torrey Smith 5-90,1
TE Brent Celek 6-80,1

Pregame Notes: The Eagles finally found a way to not win by just one point. Instead they were waxed in Arizona where all the same problem with Vick still existed. He finally did not throw any interceptions but held the ball too long and coughed up two fumbles - one of which was returned for a 93-yard touchdown by the Cardinals defense. Vick only managed 217 passing yards there after at least throwing for over 310 yards in the first two games. In fantasy terms, Vick has been a disappointment with never more than 34 rushing yards in a game to help counteract those turnovers. He scored in his one home game so far though.

LeSean McCoy was only used for 13 runs (70 yards) last week and HC Andy Reid admitted that he should have run McCoy more. After 25+ touches in the first two games, he was only given 16 touches in Arizona and that should prove to be a low spot in the season. McCoy should be relied on more ongoing since the offense has long revolved around what he does.

Jeremy Maclin was out because of his hip last week but is expected to return. His presence helps balance the passing game which will be very important against the Giants. DeSean Jackson was held to only 43 yards on three catches versus the Cardinals in part because the defense really focuses on him with Maclin out. Jason Avant cannot seem to break 40 yards in a game whether he is the replacement starter or just the #3 called in occasionally.

Brent Celek left his monster 157 yard game at home against the Ravens to only come up with 36 yards on two catches in Arizona. For what it may be worth, his only big game was at home this year and the Giants just watched Greg Olsen go nuts with 98 yards last week.

This game could turn on more Vick turnovers but the Giants are not getting as good a pass rush as last season and have only six sacks on the season. The rushing defense has been decent but McCoy brings in their first real dual threat back. So far the weakness of the Giants remains in their secondary which could help Vick from making more mistakes. In the last ten games, the Eagles are 7-0 when Maclin plays and 0-3 when they do not.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 9 24 16 7 28 17
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 19 10 26 8 5 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI CHI 10000024020 ***
Chicago has been rather strong against quarterbacks. Matt Stafford was above average last week, accounting for two of the three TDs this group has surrendered in the last four games. Wentz has some upside, but he's more safely a low-end starter than an elite option in Week 12.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, PHI CHI 901000000 ***
Big plays have kept Ajayi's fantasy value afloat of late. The Bears have been a midrange matchup, which makes him a fringe choice. The position has averaged 88.5 rushing yards on 24.5 attempts, and on in 32.7 carries has found the end zone (10th-highest frequency).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Clement, PHI CHI 4011100000 ***
Clement has proven to be valuable of late. The matchup is favorable, especially for scoring touchdowns, and Chicago has yielded the ninth-most receptions a week. One of 24 catches has scored vs. the Bears since Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI CHI 300000000 ***
Flip a coin ... Blount is useless without scoring a touchdown. The matchup is at least favorable for that to be accomplished, but game flow will dictate his success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI CHI 004701000 ***
Chicago has given up the seventh-highest weekly average for receiving yardage, but that is about all. This is the ninth-worst matchup for scoring touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI CHI 004501000 ***
The only way Agholor offers fantasy value is if he scores a touchdown, which is something Chicago has done a good job of limiting. Only two of the last 44 balls have scored. Overall, this is a moderate matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, PHI CHI 002200000 ***
Smith's only return on investment comes by way of a touchdown. Chicago, conversely, hasn't allowed more than two of them in the last four games against wide receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI CHI 005600000 **
Ertz has cooled lately. The matchup isn't ideal, either. Da Bears have no allowed a score in the last four games against tight ends, rating as the second-hardest opponent overall.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI CHI 0000 *
Elliott is in the concussion protocol and is unclear for this week. The Bears have given up 7.8 fantasy points, on average, which is in the middle of the league.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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