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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: NYG 23, PHI 24 (Line: PHI by 2)

Players to Watch: Ahmad Bradshaw, Brent Celek

Players Updated: Jeremy Maclin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Ramses Barden

This is a game where you can throw out records. The Giants won 29-16 in Philly last and then lost 10-17 at home. That was their only win in the last five trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles have won seven of the last eight times they met. For whatever reason, the Eagles matchup well with the Giants who are looking better as long as they stay in the NFC South. Flip a coin here.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI ----- 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE ----- 14 NO -----
6 @SF ----- 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS ----- 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL ----- 17 PHI -----
9 PIT ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 260,2
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 50 2-10
RB Andre Brown 60 1-10
RB David Wilson 10 1-10
WR Ramses Barden 3-40
WR Victor Cruz 7-90,1
WR Hakeem Nicks 2-30
TE Brandon Myers 5-50,1
PK Lawrence Tynes 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Giants are 2-1 but Eli Manning has only posted one big game - his 510 yard effort in the comeback win over the visiting Buccaneers. Otherwise he has just one score per week and only moderate passing yardage. Hakeem Nicks sat out last week because of his foot but plans on playing this week even if he only practices once. In his place Ramses Barden had a career best nine catches for 138 yards versus the Panthers. Nothing is ever so motivating as watching your backup look great.

Martellus Bennett remains the newest weapon that has caught a touchdown in every game and turns in around five catches for 70 yards in recent weeks. Bennett is supplying a needed and valuable additional outlet for Manning beyond the wide receivers. The Giants don't throw to the backs much so Bennett fills that shorter, over the middle role. So far he's been one of the best fantasy tight ends and a must start each week.

Ahmad Bradshaw has been cleared to practice after missing last week with a neck injury. Until he has a week of full practices and looks strong, you have to assume that Andre Brown remains in the rotation if not remains the primary back. Brown has shown power unlike anything that Bradshaw can provide even when healthy and as the only "big" back on the roster, should remain mostly on the field no matter what is done with Bradshaw and David Wilson. The problem of course is that we cannot know how much work Bradshaw gets and how much is taken away from Brown. Figuring that Wilson still gets a few token touches as well means those two nice games by Brown may end up his best of the season.

Domenik Hixon has been cleared to practice after suffering a minor concussion.

The Eagles have a top ten defense in almost every category and will be back at home. This is a game where previous performances are less indicative because the two teams know each other so well. The one main carryover that should be reliable is that Nnamdi Asomugha will cover Nicks who he handled last season when Nicks was healthy.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 7 12 2 9 1 13
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 3 9 6 5 26 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG PHI 0000025021 ***
Eli has been scuffling a bit of late, but a Philly secondary that's allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight of its last nine and gave up 309 and 2 to Eli in the earlier meeting this year should help him get back on track. Doesn't hurt that the Giants need to win to keep their hopes of defending their title alive.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG PHI 6013200000 ***
Bradshaw says he's going to play despite (insert this week's injury here), which will limit his practice time this week. He's still the best bet for a goal line touchdown if there is to be one, and Philly has served up a rushing score in four straight so that's a strong possibility. However, the injury and the fact that he amassed 77 yards from scrimmage in the earlier meeting don't exactly scream "wait for me" when setting your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB David Wilson, NYG PHI 500000000 ***
Wilson is a strong play if Ahmad Bradshaw can't go this week, but it sounds like Bradshaw will at least play some so it's tough to bank on the rookie for a significant fantasy contribution.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Victor Cruz, NYG PHI 006701000 ***
Cruz was big in the earlier meeting with Philly, with a touchdown and 109 yards. But he's had just 36 yards combined over the past two games and is limping towards the finish line. Tough to reward that sort of slumpage with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, NYG PHI 004500000 ***
Nicks has been banged up all season, culminating in his goose egg last week. He didn't play against the Eagles in the earlier meeting and can't be banked on for much if any fantasy help here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brandon Myers, NYG PHI 002200000 ****
Myers was on a roll but now three games in a row of sub-15 yard efforts means he cannot be trusted.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Lawrence Tynes, NYG PHI 3333 ***
After racing to the NFL lead in field goals, Tynes has hit just one in the past three weeks. Philly held him to one trey in the earlier meeting, so best to get your kicks elsewhere.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG PHI 2133 ***
Brown nailed the game-winner to send Cincy to the playoffs, but if Mike Nugent gets healthy Brown could be watching the postseason with the rest of us. Until the Bengals clarify their kicker situation you shouldn't be looking to either for fantasy help.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG ----- 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT ----- 14 @TB -----
6 DET ----- 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL ----- 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 40 250,2
RB Felix Jones 2-30
RB LeSean McCoy 110,1 3-20
WR DeSean Jackson 4-70
WR Jeremy Maclin 4-60,1
TE Brent Celek 6-80,1
PK Alex Henery 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Eagles finally found a way to not win by just one point. Instead they were waxed in Arizona where all the same problem with Vick still existed. He finally did not throw any interceptions but held the ball too long and coughed up two fumbles - one of which was returned for a 93-yard touchdown by the Cardinals defense. Vick only managed 217 passing yards there after at least throwing for over 310 yards in the first two games. In fantasy terms, Vick has been a disappointment with never more than 34 rushing yards in a game to help counteract those turnovers. He scored in his one home game so far though.

LeSean McCoy was only used for 13 runs (70 yards) last week and HC Andy Reid admitted that he should have run McCoy more. After 25+ touches in the first two games, he was only given 16 touches in Arizona and that should prove to be a low spot in the season. McCoy should be relied on more ongoing since the offense has long revolved around what he does.

Jeremy Maclin was out because of his hip last week but is expected to return. His presence helps balance the passing game which will be very important against the Giants. DeSean Jackson was held to only 43 yards on three catches versus the Cardinals in part because the defense really focuses on him with Maclin out. Jason Avant cannot seem to break 40 yards in a game whether he is the replacement starter or just the #3 called in occasionally.

Brent Celek left his monster 157 yard game at home against the Ravens to only come up with 36 yards on two catches in Arizona. For what it may be worth, his only big game was at home this year and the Giants just watched Greg Olsen go nuts with 98 yards last week.

This game could turn on more Vick turnovers but the Giants are not getting as good a pass rush as last season and have only six sacks on the season. The rushing defense has been decent but McCoy brings in their first real dual threat back. So far the weakness of the Giants remains in their secondary which could help Vick from making more mistakes. In the last ten games, the Eagles are 7-0 when Maclin plays and 0-3 when they do not.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 9 24 16 7 28 17
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 19 10 26 8 5 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, PHI @NYG 30100026012 ***
Nick Foles heads to IR with a broken hand, putting Vick back in the driver's seat. He threw for 241 and 1 in the earlier meeting with the Giants, mixing in 49 rushing yards as well; look for him to build on those numbers in this audition for whatever team he'll be quarterbacking in 2013. And since Vick is most impressive when running the ball, a rushing score wouldn't surprise this week--nor would a bigger yardage total, seeing as similarly mobile RG3 took the Giants for 161 yards in two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @NYG 9015300000 ***
McCoy's 122 combo yards last week certainly suggest he's back to full go, which is especially good news this week seeing as he rushed for 123 yards in the earlier meeting with the Giants. And considering New York allowed two 100-yard rushers last week alone, McCoy should be in line for another productive outing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @NYG 006701000 ***
DeSean Jackson inflicted the damage in the earlier meeting with the Giants while Maclin was held to one catch for seven yards, but DJax ain't around this time and Maclin has been Philly's go-to guy over the past month. Michael Vick knows where to find him as well, so expect Maclin to lead the charge in Philly's passing game this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jason Avant, PHI @NYG 004600000 ***
Avant has double-digit targets in two of the last three games, stepping up in the absence of DeSean Jackson. Jackson was Philly's go-to guy in the earlier meeting with the Giants, so if they focus on shutting down Jeremy Maclin again it could be a nice opportunity for Maclin. Even if Avant plays wingman, a date with a Giants' secondary that's allowed 20 WR TDs on the year and six wideouts to top 74 yards in the past month should provide reasonably lucrative.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Riley Cooper, PHI @NYG 002200000 ***
Cooper's contributions have been too inconsistent to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brent Celek, PHI @NYG 005500000 ***
Celek had a comfort level with Michael Vick earlier in the season, including 57 yards in the previous meeting with the Giants. Big Blue has allowed 170 yards and a TD to the position over the past three games, so Celek certainly feels in line for another solid yardage game with the possibility of a score.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Alex Henery, PHI @NYG 2133 ***
Henery has multiple field goals in two straight and five of the last six, and he booted a season-high four treys in the previous meeting with the Giants. New York has allowed multiple field goals in three straight, a total of eight in that span. So maybe Henery sends Andy Reid out not with a bang but with a bunch of field goals.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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