Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: SD 20, KC 23 (Line: SD by 1)

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles

Players Updated: Peyton Hillis, Dwayne Bowe, Nate Kaeding

The Chargers lost 20-23 in Kansas City last year. Both meetings were three point wins by the home team in games full of field goals. While the Bolts won seven of the last nine meetings, they lost the last two played in Kansas City. These divisional rivals almost always have lower scoring, very close match-ups.

San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @OAK 22-14 10 @TB -----
2 TEN 38-10 11 @DEN -----
3 ATL 3-27 12 BAL -----
4 @KC ----- 13 CIN -----
5 @NO ----- 14 @PIT -----
6 DEN ----- 15 CAR -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @NYJ -----
8 @CLE ----- 17 OAK -----
9 KC ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SD @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers 240,2
RB Danny Woodhead 20 2-20
WR Malcom Floyd 5-80,1
WR Stevie Johnson 4-60,1
WR Jacoby Jones 3-50
TE Antonio Gates 4-60

Pregame Notes: The Chargers come off their first loss of the year thanks to the visiting Falcons showing up with a much better defense than the Raiders or Titans. That resulted in a bad game by Rivers with only 173 passing yards and no scores. The offense is not passing well and sorely misses having a younger, healthier version of Antonio Gates and anyone who can remotely replace Vincent Jackson. Take away three touchdowns to Dante Rosario against the TItans and Rivers has really struggled to do much. On the road this week may not be any improvement.

Antonio Gates returned last week but only came up with three catches for 22 yards on seven targets but claims his ribs are not an issue. This offense still has no real passing outlets other than Malcom Floyd being miscast as a #1 receiver thanks to Robert Meachem being such a flop. If the rumors were true that Wes Welker is on the trading block, this is where he should go. The Chargers passing game has never looked this bad.

Ryan Mathews returned from his broken clavicle and ran for 44 yards on ten carries but was limited solely because the Falcons were so far ahead that rushing was not in the plans. Notable here was that Ronnie Brown was inactive this week and thus may have played his last down for his last NFL team. Jackie Battle had three runs and Curtis Brinkley took another. This will be Mathews gig from now on and he will not be spelled much. That should be more evident this week and again in New Orleans the following weekend.

This game will revolve around how well Mathews runs and if Floyd and Gates-lite is enough to win. Even against the Chiefs that may not be enough.

Gaining Fantasy Points SD 26 9 30 12 11 29
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 29 22 19 18 19 30

QB Philip Rivers, SD PIT 0000030030 ***
The Steelers' D has looked better the past two games, though facing Nick Foles and Joe Flacco instead of Tom Brady has a little something to do with that. Rivers is much closer to the Brady end of that sliding scale, with 762 yards and five TDs in his two previous home games, so expect him to expose Pittsburgh's pass D again this week.
RB Danny Woodhead, SD PIT 4005400000 ***
Woodhead's a PPR must, but his upside is limited by a Steelers defense that's allowed only one RB to top 20 receiving yards and none to find the end zone via the pass.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD PIT 5003200000 ***
The Steelers haven't allowed a running back touchdown this year, but they did just give up 150 yards to Justin Forsett in prime time. Now they'll visit Gordon in another nationally televised event, though Gordon isn't seeing nearly the touches Forsett is. There's upside, but not enough to warrant a fantasy reach.
WR Keenan Allen, SD PIT 00111201000 ***
Allen has three big fantasy efforts in four games this year, and a Steelers' secondary that's allowed a consistent stream of fantasy helpers isn't likely to keep him from his appointed rounds.
WR Dontrelle Inman, SD PIT 004500000 ***
Inman did a serviceable Stevie impression last week, but his fantasy potential this week depends on Johnson's availability--and you may need to wait until Monday to make that determination.
TE Ladarius Green, SD PIT 004501000 **
Green has more than held down the fort in Antonio Gates' absence, but he's sure to lose at least some targets now that the steroid-free Gates has returned. Worse, it's a lousy matchup against a Steelers defense that was abused by Gronk but has largely kept all the other tight ends they've faced in check. A small pie split multiple ways offers little fantasy help.
TE Antonio Gates, SD PIT 004401000 *
Gates returns to the lineup after a four-game suspension. There's no guarantee he's the same Gates off 'roids, nor is there any guarantee the Chargers will simply give him the full workload after Ladarius Green found success in his absence. Regardless, it's not a favorable matchup against a defense that's allowed just 48 TE yards the past two games so wait until Gates is fully reacclimated before banking on him for fantasy purposes.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, SD PIT 3333 ***
Lambo's been productive in two home games, tallying nine and 12 points. Pittsburgh's D has been a bit more stingy but has given up more field goals in each game thus far; that's a trend Lambo can capitalize on.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD ----- 13 CAR -----
5 BAL ----- 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 230,2
RB Jamaal Charles 80 6-50
WR Jeremy Maclin 4-60,1

Pregame Notes: The road trip to New Orleans was more than just good food and a 32 oz. Hurricane with a Krazy Straw. It was a win. The Chiefs were not very competitive against the Falcons or Bills but the lack of any defense by the Saints was just what the Chiefs needed. Matt Cassel faced what should have been a tasty match-up but only threw for 248 yards and no score because that was all he needed to do.

Peyton Hillis sprained his ankle in the game and was wearing a walking boot early in the week. That meant Charles was given an incredible 33 carries to gain 233 yards and one score with 55 more yards as a receiver. It was vintage Charles who admitted he had been thinking about his knee in previous weeks but just let it go.

Charles ran 91 yards untouched on his touchdown so if he has lost a step, it was one he can still live without. Charles monster game came after he only gained three yards on six runs in Buffalo and that's a pretty significant swing. Especially for several Charles owners who actually benched him last week. Long as Hillis is laid up, Charles should have a big role though probably not 33 more carries any time soon. Shaun Draughn fills in for Hillis but doesn't offer enough for fantasy merit.

The passing game still ignores the tight ends and Kevin Boss has been out with a concussion anyway. Tony Moeaki is only good for one or two small catches each week.

Dwayne Bowe still rang up seven catches for 79 yards versus the Saints while no other receiver had more than 36 yards. But he is getting no help from the other wideouts with Doug Baldwin stuck at three catches per week and Steve Breaston does well enough to catch even one. Dexter McCluster injured his elbow in the Saints win and may be an injury risk. He has yet to offer any significant production since opening the season with 82 yards against Atlanta.

The Chargers have been very good against the run and even on the road should impact Charles as a runner. But they have allowed a passing score every week and been especially good against wide receivers. That makes this a lower scoring game that probably turns on mistakes and turnovers more than big plays.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 17 1 27 25 5 28
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 15 21 7 27 2 12

QB Alex Smith, KC CHI 0000025021 ***
The Bears haven't given up big passing yardage--three of four foes have stayed under 200 yards--but they've allowed 10 passing TDs in four games so there's fantasy value to be had here.
RB Jamaal Charles, KC CHI 10014200000 ***
Andy Reid could take some lessons from how the Bears use Matt Forte; going back through the 2013 season, the last 13 times the Chiefs have given Charles 17 or more touches he's produced--scoring in 12 of those 13 games (a total of 17 touchdowns) and topping 100 yards from scrimmage in all but one. Yes, there have been games when KC failed to give Charles 17 touches, but in their lone home game thus far they gave him 25--and were promptly rewarded with 127 and 1. Feed Charles against a defense that allowed backup Thomas Rawls to rush for triple digit yardage the last time they left Chicago.
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC CHI 0071001000 ***
The Chiefs are feeding Maclin, and he's responded with back-to-back 140-yard games. Chicago is ill-suited to stop him, having allowed eight WR TDs on the year and at least one 75-yard receiver each of the past three games despite not having faced a receiver to get anything resembling Maclin's target level.
WR Chris Conley, KC CHI 004400000 ***
Yes, Virginia, the Chiefs have other receivers. No, Virginia, you don't need to worry about their fantasy prospects.
TE Travis Kelce, KC CHI 007801000 ***
The last time the Bears saw a legit TE they gave up 88 yards and a score to Jimmy Graham. Kelce's floor is in the 50-yard range, and while he hasn't scored since Week 1 there's plenty of upside in his targets as well.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC CHI 3333 ***
A Bears defense that gave up four field goals and 14 total kicker points the last time they left Chicago, facing a kicker who booted seven treys his last time out? Sounds like a fantasy winner.

CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

a d v e r t i s e m e n t