Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: SD 20, KC 23 (Line: SD by 1)

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles

Players Updated: Peyton Hillis, Dwayne Bowe, Nate Kaeding

The Chargers lost 20-23 in Kansas City last year. Both meetings were three point wins by the home team in games full of field goals. While the Bolts won seven of the last nine meetings, they lost the last two played in Kansas City. These divisional rivals almost always have lower scoring, very close match-ups.

San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @OAK 22-14 10 @TB -----
2 TEN 38-10 11 @DEN -----
3 ATL 3-27 12 BAL -----
4 @KC ----- 13 CIN -----
5 @NO ----- 14 @PIT -----
6 DEN ----- 15 CAR -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @NYJ -----
8 @CLE ----- 17 OAK -----
9 KC ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SD @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers 240,2
RB Danny Woodhead 20 2-20
WR Malcom Floyd 5-80,1
WR Stevie Johnson 4-60,1
TE Antonio Gates 4-60

Pregame Notes: The Chargers come off their first loss of the year thanks to the visiting Falcons showing up with a much better defense than the Raiders or Titans. That resulted in a bad game by Rivers with only 173 passing yards and no scores. The offense is not passing well and sorely misses having a younger, healthier version of Antonio Gates and anyone who can remotely replace Vincent Jackson. Take away three touchdowns to Dante Rosario against the TItans and Rivers has really struggled to do much. On the road this week may not be any improvement.

Antonio Gates returned last week but only came up with three catches for 22 yards on seven targets but claims his ribs are not an issue. This offense still has no real passing outlets other than Malcom Floyd being miscast as a #1 receiver thanks to Robert Meachem being such a flop. If the rumors were true that Wes Welker is on the trading block, this is where he should go. The Chargers passing game has never looked this bad.

Ryan Mathews returned from his broken clavicle and ran for 44 yards on ten carries but was limited solely because the Falcons were so far ahead that rushing was not in the plans. Notable here was that Ronnie Brown was inactive this week and thus may have played his last down for his last NFL team. Jackie Battle had three runs and Curtis Brinkley took another. This will be Mathews gig from now on and he will not be spelled much. That should be more evident this week and again in New Orleans the following weekend.

This game will revolve around how well Mathews runs and if Floyd and Gates-lite is enough to win. Even against the Chiefs that may not be enough.

Gaining Fantasy Points SD 26 9 30 12 11 29
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 29 22 19 18 19 30

QB Philip Rivers, SD @JAC 0000027011 ***
Would you believe the worst fantasy performance in Jacksonville by a visiting quarterback was Cam Newton back in Week 1? Since then every visiting QB has topped 20 points, with three of the four throwing for at least 290 yards. Rivers' only road misstep came when he was pulled in a loss in Minnesota with 246 yards and just one TD; he's reached multiple touchdowns in the other three road trips and has 804 passing yards in just his last two away from home. He's down several receivers but that hasn't stopped him yet; no reason to think it does sow now.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD @JAC 4002100000 ***
Gordon is seeing the majority of the carries, but he's not doing enough with them to warrant fantasy consideration--plus he's still looking for that elusive first NFL touchdown.
RB Danny Woodhead, SD @JAC 1004300000 *
The Jags are a bottom-8 defense in RB receptions, yardage and TDs so this looks like another job for Woodhead, who has topped 60 receiving yards six times this season.
WR Javontee Herndon, SD @JAC 005501000 *
Another guy you and Philip Rivers have never heard of, only Javontee is actually one of Rivers' targets. He out-targeted Dontrelle Inman last week but has yet to hit the 40-yard mark so he's too far down the pecking order to warrant fantasy attention. That said, just wait; another injury is sure to winnow the Chargers' receiving corps further, pushing Herndon onto the radar.
WR Stevie Johnson, SD @JAC 007800000 ***
Johnson is the only receiver Philip Rivers knows by name, and his targets since Keenan Allen went down with an injury reflect it. Jacksonville has allowed multiple wideouts to score and/or top 50 yards in eight of 10 this year, so favorite or not Johnson is in line for a fantasy helper here.
WR Dontrelle Inman, SD @JAC 004400000 ***
Inman looks to be the lead wingman, which against the Jags generally means fantasy relevancy as they've allowed multiple receivers to score and/or top 50 yards in eight of 10 this year.
WR Malcom Floyd, SD @JAC 00000000 *
Floyd returned to practice this week, playing through a torn labrum. He'd be a familiar target for Philip Rivers, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be given the injury. Look for fantasy help elsewhere.
TE Antonio Gates, SD @JAC 004400000 *
Over the past two games the Jags have given up two TE TDs to the Ravens and 109 yards to Tennessee's Delanie Walker. Meanwhile Gates has topped 50 yards in every game since his return, seeing 43 targets in those four games. He'll get every opportunity to extend Jacksonville's run of futility against the position.
TE Ladarius Green, SD @JAC 002200000 **
Green was back at practice late last week, but he didn't play in Week 11 and he has yet to practice this week. Check back Friday for an update on his status.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, SD @JAC 2211 ***
There's a decent baseline here, as the Jags have given up at least seven points to every kicker who's visited Jacksonville. But that's also near Lambo's max, so don't get too excited.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD ----- 13 CAR -----
5 BAL ----- 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 230,2
RB Jamaal Charles 80 6-50
WR Jeremy Maclin 4-60,1

Pregame Notes: The road trip to New Orleans was more than just good food and a 32 oz. Hurricane with a Krazy Straw. It was a win. The Chiefs were not very competitive against the Falcons or Bills but the lack of any defense by the Saints was just what the Chiefs needed. Matt Cassel faced what should have been a tasty match-up but only threw for 248 yards and no score because that was all he needed to do.

Peyton Hillis sprained his ankle in the game and was wearing a walking boot early in the week. That meant Charles was given an incredible 33 carries to gain 233 yards and one score with 55 more yards as a receiver. It was vintage Charles who admitted he had been thinking about his knee in previous weeks but just let it go.

Charles ran 91 yards untouched on his touchdown so if he has lost a step, it was one he can still live without. Charles monster game came after he only gained three yards on six runs in Buffalo and that's a pretty significant swing. Especially for several Charles owners who actually benched him last week. Long as Hillis is laid up, Charles should have a big role though probably not 33 more carries any time soon. Shaun Draughn fills in for Hillis but doesn't offer enough for fantasy merit.

The passing game still ignores the tight ends and Kevin Boss has been out with a concussion anyway. Tony Moeaki is only good for one or two small catches each week.

Dwayne Bowe still rang up seven catches for 79 yards versus the Saints while no other receiver had more than 36 yards. But he is getting no help from the other wideouts with Doug Baldwin stuck at three catches per week and Steve Breaston does well enough to catch even one. Dexter McCluster injured his elbow in the Saints win and may be an injury risk. He has yet to offer any significant production since opening the season with 82 yards against Atlanta.

The Chargers have been very good against the run and even on the road should impact Charles as a runner. But they have allowed a passing score every week and been especially good against wide receivers. That makes this a lower scoring game that probably turns on mistakes and turnovers more than big plays.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 17 1 27 25 5 28
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 15 21 7 27 2 12

QB Alex Smith, KC BUF 30000018010 ***
Only a Week 8 rushing score stands between Smith and six straight weeks of sub-20 point fantasy efforts. The Bills have held three of four--including Tom Brady last week--below that threshold, with only Ryan Fitzpatrick's 20.7 outing snapping the streak. So there's not a lot of fantasy upside to Smith this week.
RB Spencer Ware, KC BUF 8011100000 ***
Ware tore up the Chargers last week in relief of the injured Charcandrick West, but the Bolts don't put up much resistance to any ground game. The Bills are a different animal, having allowed only one 100-yard game on the year. That said, Ware should see the bulk of the touches in an RB-centric offense so he at least warrants fantasy consideration if West remains sidelined.
RB Charcandrick West, KC BUF 00000000 *
West didn't practice on Wednesday and his availability for Sunday is in doubt. Check back on Friday for a clearer view of his Week 12 outlook.
WR Albert Wilson, KC BUF 003301000 *
There's barely enough for any wideout to carve out fantasy value, let alone a wingman to blip on the fantasy radar. On the bright side, the Bills have allowed multiple wideouts to score and/or top 60 yards in four straight games so there's a chance Wilson does something to help your fantasy squad.
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC BUF 003400000 ***
Maclin is KC's WR1 in theory, but he hasn't done anything of fantasy note in a couple weeks. The Bills aren't a shutdown pass D but it won't be easy for Maclin to get his so temper expectations accordingly.
TE Travis Kelce, KC BUF 005500000 ***
Buffalo hasn't allowed a TE TD since Week 6 or a tight end to top 40 yards since Week 2. Meanwhile, the Chiefs still refuse to lean on Kelce as a critical element of their offense; he's scored once since Week 1 and hasn't seen double-digit targets since Week 3. While he should be an every-week fantasy play, between his under-usage and the matchup you have better fantasy options at your disposal.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC BUF 4422 ***
Lots of things are trending upwards in KC--including Cairo, who has nine points or more in four straight. Buffalo isn't an easy matchup, but right now Santos has a hot hand worth riding.

CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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