Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: SF 23, NYJ 13 (Line: SF by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Bilal Powell, Jonathan Grimes

Player Updated: Jonathan Grimes

So maybe the 2-1 49ers are not all that and a delicious sour dough bowl of clam chowder. The loss in Minnesota makes this third road game in four weeks a little more important. The 2-1 Jets have taken down two of their divisional rivals and then lost horribly in Pittsburgh. The 49ers defense should be plenty good enough here though the same thing was said just last week.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL -----
2 DET 27-19 11 CHI -----
3 @MIN 13-24 12 @NO -----
4 @NYJ ----- 13 @STL -----
5 BUF ----- 14 MIA -----
6 NYG ----- 15 @NE -----
7 SEA ----- 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI ----- 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SF @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert 220,1
RB Reggie Bush 60 5-30,1
WR Anquan Boldin 4-50,1
WR Jerome Simpson 4-60,1
WR Torrey Smith 5-90,1
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: It all went surprisingly south last week when the 49ers just never was in the game in Minneapolis. They trailed the entire way and the Vikings defense put the clamps on them. It was almost surrealistic but an example of the volatility of this season of parity.

Smith remains a game manager and hangs around 220 yards every week with one or two touchdowns. He's only thrown one interception so far though and his performance against the Vikings was a clear sign that the 49ers just did not prepare enough for the sloppy game.

Frank Gore was scoring every week but left Minnesota with just 63 yards on 12 runs as the 49ers largely abandoned the running effort with a growing deficit on the scoreboard. Kendall Hunter has become invisible by now with four runs for no gain last week. This is Gore's show for whatever that may mean each week. In all cases, it almost never means more than one reception per game.

Vernon Davis is the star with a score in every game (two vs. DET) and while there are all those other receivers now in San Francisco, Smith still just looks for Davis. Difference this year is that he is not constantly doubled and tripled covered.

Randy Moss went back to Minny but only caught three passes for 27 yards and he's just not much in the game plan. Hard to drop for a fantasy team since the 49ers are almost certain to need him later, but no way he can be considered a starter. He just doesn't get nearly enough passes to matter. Michael Crabtree remains the primary wideout and yet still has not scored. This is still a mostly pedestrian passing attack and the only change is that Davis is more open this season.

The Jets just lost Darrelle Revis for the year with a torn ACL and that is just good fantasy news for all opponents. Maybe a little less so with the 49ers.The Jets defense just became ordinary.

Gaining Fantasy Points SF 19 18 22 5 7 26
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 15 14 11 6

QB Blaine Gabbert, SF @SEA 0000017001 ***
Gabbert's two TDs in his first NFL action in a while were a cute story, but there's no reason to think he emulates the 363 & 3 Carson Palmer dropped on the Legion of Boom last week. An upgrade over Colin Kaepernick's 124-yard effort against Seattle back in Week 7 would be nice, but expectations shouldn't be much higher than that.
RB Shaun Draughn, SF @SEA 3004300000 ***
Draughn wound up as San Francisco's go-to guy in their last pre-bye game... but there's a difference between racking up 96 yards from scrimmage at home against the Falcons and doing anything of fantasy note in Seattle.
WR Quinton Patton, SF @SEA 004500000 ***
Yes, Patton was Blaine Gabbert's favorite outside target last time out, but 49er wideouts combined for 41 receiving yards in the earlier meeting with Seattle. You want to spread that three deep in their receiver rotation, that's on you.
WR Anquan Boldin, SF @SEA 003300000 **
Boldin is expected back from his hamstring injury, but we'll wait until he gets a practice session in before banking on him for fantasy help.

Update: Boldin practiced on a limited basis this week and is listed as questionable. It's not exactly a favorable matchup--on the road, against the Legion of Boom, with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback--so no need for you to rush him back to your fantasy lineup.
WR Torrey Smith, SF @SEA 001100000 ***
Smith's deep game doesn't mesh with Blaine Gabbert's skill set. Plus he's facing the Legion of Boom. In Seattle.
TE Garrett Celek, SF @SEA 002200000 ***
With Vernon Davis (and his 4-61 in the earlier meeting with Seattle) gone, Celek has stepped up as San Francisco's go-to tight end. Blaine Gabbert leaned on him for a pair of scores prior to the bye, and the Seahawks have proven soft against tight ends this season--see Jermaine Gresham's touchdown last week as proof. Only a split target load with Vance McDonald stands between Celek and fantasy immortality... or at least a decent game.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, SF @SEA 2200 ***
Seattle's given up 25 kicker points the past two weeks; prior to that they held Dawson to one field goal. Sadly for Phil and his fantasy owners, his offense will likely leave him out to dry in Seattle this week.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF ----- 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 230,2
RB Bilal Powell 20 2-20
RB Stevan Ridley 50 2-10
WR Eric Decker 6-80,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50
WR Brandon Marshall 5-60
TE Kellen Davis 2-20,1
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets outlasted the Dolphins last week but losing Darrelle Revis throws a whole new light on the entire team literally. Revis was the center of the defense and the defense was good enough because of him. And a good defense meant the offense could cough and sputter and yet the Jets still got away with it at times. The Jets are not going to fall apart because of this. But they are not going to get any better.

So far Mark Sanchez is hard to measure as he has faced two divisional rivals - always a different affair for any quarterback - and posted decent enough stats but the one game against the Steelers was a 10-27, 138 yard flop. This will be a big test for him and the 49ers have been very good against the pass.

The interesting development for the Jets is the apparent realization by Rex Ryan that maybe centering the entire rushing game on Shonn Greene is not the optimal solution. Greene has rushed 57 times and gained 157 yards for a hefty 2.7 yard per carry average. Greene has always been a slug but the coaches still supported him. Ryan appears to either be seeing the light or he finally got the negatives from some incriminating photos. This may end up with more use of Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight as he mentioned, but this is a bad week to see what other backs might do given a bigger chance.

Dustin Keller has missed two games with a hamstring strain and in his place the Jets use both Jeff Cumberland and Konrad Reuland in the same minimal way. The tight ends have not scored for the Jets this year or even gained more than 33 yards in any game.

Stephen Hill opened the year with 89 yards and two scores but now has gone two weeks with nine targets and zero catches. Safe to drop your week one free agent grab. Santonio Holmes comes off his first big game but so far he has only mattered when facing weak division defenses. Against the Steelers he only produced three catches for 28 yards though he scored once because he used to live there way back when. Jeremy Kerley has two scores on the year and has been consistent with around 50 yards or so per week. Holmes and Kerley make up nearly all of the receiving talent for the Jets. That's not enough for the rest of the season.

The Jets face a defense that will shut down the run game and force Sanchez to throw. And that is just never a good ending for the Jets. Problem too is that the only weakness at all for the 49ers defense is against tight ends which the Jets just never use.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 21 30 8 28 13 2
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 24 2 18 29 13 24

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ @HOU 20000025021 *
Fitz has a steady two scores in four straight games he's finished and seven of eight overall. Houston has pitched a pair of shutouts, one impressive (Andy Dalton) and one not (Zach Mettenberger). Before that they gave up nine scores in three games, so it's unlikely they keep Fitz from his appointed rounds.
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @HOU 4002200000 ***
Ivory has had one fantasy downer in the last six games, and while this isn't a particularly easy matchup he's seeing enough volume to carve out another fantasy helper in Houston.
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @HOU 006601000 ***
The perfect wingman, Decker hasn't topped 100 yards yet this season--but he's been north of 60 in four straight and scored in seven of eight. Houston has let multiple receivers score or top 60 yards in five games this season, and the Jets' WR tandem is talented enough to make that six.
WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ @HOU 004501000 ***
The Texans are no pushover matchup, but they also aren't likely to stop Marshall from extending his run of scoring or topping 100 yards to a robust nine times in 10 games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, NYJ @HOU 2222 ***
Bullock tallied a mere five points in his first game in place of Nick Folk, and a date with a Texans defense that hasn't allowed a double-digit kicking game all season won't raise the bar any higher.

CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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