Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: TEN 10, HOU 31 (Line: HOU by 12)

Players to Watch: The Player Formerly Known as Chris Johnson

Players Updated: Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Lestar Jean, Kenny Britt, Jared Cook

The 1-2 Titans come off a thrilling win over the Lions but make no mistakes here - the Titans defense has been almost nonexistent this year. The only other trip away from home was the 28 point loss in San Diego. The Texans are 3-0 and rolling to nice wins every week with a great defense and plenty of offense to get the job done. The Titans won 23-22 in Houston in during a meaningless week 17 last season. The Texans won 41-7 during week 7 in Tennessee. That is more what to expect in this interdivisional match-up.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA -----
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC -----
4 @HOU ----- 13 HOU -----
5 @MIN ----- 14 @IND -----
6 PIT ----- 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF ----- 16 @GB -----
8 IND ----- 17 JAC -----
9 CHI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel 260,2
RB DeMarco Murray 70,1 3-20
WR Harry Douglas 2-20
WR Andre Johnson 5-90,1
WR Kendall Wright 4-50
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40
PK Ryan Succop 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Like several other teams in the NFL, you have a two week version of the Titans being inept on offense and being unable to stop anyone defensively. And there is the one week version that has an adequate passing offense and being unable to stop anyone defensively. Chances are the offensive effort at home against the Lions was just part of some fluky cosmic shift that will end once the TItans enter the city limits of Houston. And in the end it doesn't really matter because they are unable to stop anyone defensively.

Jake Locker may have kept Matt Hasselbeck on the bench for a while longer when he passed for 378 yards and two scores on Sunday. Locker was stuck at one score per week and 200-ish yardage. Coaches stood behind him but then again, they had to stand behind him because everyone else was asking when Hasselbeck would get the nod.

Chris Johnson has become one of those backs that you will never forget and for the wrong reasons. Not the 2000 yard rushing season. It was how he went from the height of heights, got paid and then could not get any lower if he was riding on a BunkerBuster missile. The Titans are not the #32 rushing team. They are the #32 rushing team by a mile. Total output for Chris Johnson in three games? 33 carries for 45 yards. That is three games combined. Sure, he throws in a few catches but as a runner? This is beyond comprehension and by now means you cannot start him, you cannot trade him and even if you dump him on the waiver wire - who are you going to get to replace him? He belongs on the roster in that corner you never access just in case the unlikely materializes. All things considered this is unprecedented.

Oh yes, and Johnson only gained 18 yards on ten carries against the Texans last year.

The receivers have carried the team but even that has been marginal. Nate Washington has two scores but his only road effort was two catches for 20 yards in San Diego. Kenny Britt is up to 55 yards on six catches but that's probably half what Hasselbeck would have done. Kendall Wright gets plenty of work but gets nothing but shorter throws. He turned in seven catches for only 41 yards when the Lions visited. This is all the control of Locker who they want to grow into the job. And this is the painful learning curve.

Jared Cook did score once last week on four receptions for 77 yards but he's still not consistent enough to merit a fantasy start.

The Titans offense has sputtered other than last week and a road game to Houston is no place to expect lightning to strike twice. This might end up as a shutout.

Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 14 32 13 10 15 7
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 4 13 5 3 4 15

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN IND 60100025011 ***
Successive great games for Mariota have raised the expectations a tad ... facing Indy's defense will be a little more of a test than Cleveland and Miami presented. The Colts have allowed 22.8 fantasy points per game, and Mariota is a low-end QB1 this week.
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN IND 11014300000 ****
One of fantasy's top players getting one of the weakest matchups for his position ... gotta love it when a plan comes together. Murray faces the third easiest opponent for RBs in PPR scoring. Indy has allowed an average of 31.4 points, stemming from hemorrhaging touchdowns -- one every 18.4 touches.
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN IND 006700000 ***
Only one in 30 receptions against the Titans has found the end zone. Matthews should catch an ample number of passes against one of four teams to allow 90 receptions.
WR Kendall Wright, TEN IND 005600000 **
Wright should see more targets after last week's strong game. It can't hurt that Indy has allowed 90 receptions to receivers this year.
TE Delanie Walker, TEN IND 005601000 ***
Walker faces divisional-rival Indianapolis, which is right on the cusp of being a strong matchup. This defense has allowed 32 receptions but only two touchdowns in six games. Walker didn't score last year versus the Titans, although he posted 13.8 and 19.4 PPR points in his two meetings.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN IND 2233 ***
Indy offers the second best matchup for kickers, surrendering 10.3 points per game. It could be worse, but kickers have missed three extra points. Succop is a safe place to find fantasy points in Week 7.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI -----
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN ----- 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ ----- 14 @NE -----
6 GB ----- 15 IND -----
7 BAL ----- 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 10 230
RB Jonathan Grimes
RB Lamar Miller 10 2-10
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Texans survived the Peyton Manning comeback bid in Denver and should relax a little this week with a game they know they can win. The schedule this year gets tougher after this week but all the more reason to take the win where they know they can get it. The Titans are bringing in one of the worst defenses in the league.

Matt Schaub turned in a big game in Denver when he passed for 290 yards and four touchdowns. He left a part of himself there (ear lobe) and has been just a game manager handing off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate in the other two games. It was nice to see the passing game explosion but it won't much be needed this week.

Arian Foster has scored in every game and is on a two game streak with 100+ rushing yards. He merely ran for 115 yards and two touchdowns in the one meeting with the Titans last year. Oh, and he added 119 yards and one score on five catches in that game. Ben Tate ran for 104 yards on 15 carries. Every reason to expect more great things from both Foster and Tate this week.

The passing success of week three saw Kevin Walter with 73 yards and a score which alone says it was a one time only sort of game. Andre Johnson turned two catches there into 72 yards and a score but he did not play in the meeting with the Titans last year. Johnson remains the only receiver worthy of fantasy merit and the success of the rushing effort means that his week two performance of only three receptions for 21 yards may not be his last bad game.

Owen Daniels scored as well in the Broncos game but has been mediocre since his week one effort against the Dolphins when he gained 87 yards on four catches. This remains a three man fantasy crew - start Foster always, start Tate in easier match-ups and start Johnson every week with your fingers crossed. Owens is in a good situation if only for this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 22 2 25 14 9 14
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 31 28 25 32 29 14

QB Brock Osweiler, HOU @DEN 10000019002 ***
Brock returns to the Rockies to face his former employer. The matchup rates as the fifth hardest, but if you remove the two rushing touchdowns against, since that's not really Osweiler's deal, we're looking at the third toughest rating.
RB Lamar Miller, HOU @DEN 6015400000 ***
Denver is actually a positive matchup for pass-catching backs, and Miller is versatile enough to exploit it. The Broncos have allowed 24.6 PPR points per game to RBs, including an average of one offensive touchdown.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @DEN 004400000 ***
Playing six games, this defense has allowed fewer points than every team playing five games. The Broncos prove to be the toughest in the league. Hopkins is a must for fantasy lineups, but it won't come easily against Aqib Talib and shaded safeties.
WR Jaelen Strong, HOU @DEN 003300000 ***
Strong should see a few looks when Hopkins and Fuller are blanketed. The matchup is awful, statistically, anyway, so playing him is an unnecessary risk.
WR Will Fuller, HOU @DEN 002200000 *
Fuller was active last week but didn't see the field. He should return in Week 7 and has a tough matchup in Denver. The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, HOU @DEN 005500000 ***
The third-year tight end has finally started to emerge over the past three weeks, scoring twice and hauling in 14 balls. His involvement is still suspect, but this matchup should force Brock Osweiler into ample checkdowns based on Denver's secondary strength.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Novak, HOU @DEN 1111 ***
Following a brilliant start to 2016, Novak's fantasy prospects continue to slide with Houston's offensive inconsistency. This week, a tough road matchup should go in Denver's favor.

CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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