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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: WAS 24, TB 20 (Line: TB by 3)

Players to Watch: Fred Davis

Players Updated: Pierre Garcon

The 1-2 Redskins have been a boon to the fantasy world with 59+ total points in each of their games. The 1-2 Buccaneers have followed the same pattern as the Skins only without all those points. One of these teams will have lost three games in a row which is just about spinning out of control. With the way both teams have played, this is a coin flip game that may end up with 25 total points or 75 total points.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB ----- 13 NYG -----
5 ATL ----- 14 BAL -----
6 MIN ----- 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 30,1 270,2
RB Alfred Morris 70
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Leonard Hankerson 6-90,1
WR Santana Moss 3-40
WR Aldrick Robinson 2-40
TE Fred Davis 6-80,1

Pregame Notes: That win in week one is a little less impressive now that the Saints are 0-3 but losing to the Rams and the Bengals are troublesome since no one knew the Rams had an offense. You cannot fault the Skins offense that has posted 28 points or more in every game. But the Redskins have allowed 101 points and cannot stop the bleeding. The Rams and the Bengals?

Robert Griffin III had been more effective as a runner than a passer in recent games though he has always thrown for at least one touchdown per game and never gained fewer than 206 passing yards. Griffin has three rushing touchdowns on the season and ran for over 80 yards in the last two losses.

Alfred Morris still has fantasy value as the primary back but slipped to 78 yards on 17 runs last week with one touchdown. Morris has not caught any passes so far. What works in his favor this week is that Evan Royster has a strained patellar tendon and Roy Helu has turf toe so Morris should get no less of a load and possibly all the carries this week.

Pierre Garcon remains out with his foot injury and HC Mike Shanahan is not interested in clearing up when Garcon will be back. I will assume he is out until he gets a full practice. Leonard Hankerson has earned a starting role and has been the most productive wide receiver for the last two weeks. Aldrick Robinson has faded to only one catch last Sunday and Santana Moss has been little used. The only development here is that Fred Davis was finally a big part of the passing equation when he caught seven passes for 90 yards. With Garcon out, Davis should continue to be the main target for Griffin.

How this game plays out will be interesting since Cam Newton passed for 303 yards there in the season opener and yet had no rushing success. Eli Manning passed for 510 yards and three scores but then Tony Romo was unable to score on the Buccaneers. The Bucs defense has been good against the run and horrible against the pass - for the most part.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 14 12 19 12 3
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 22 6 31 9 25 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Robert Griffin III, WAS DAL 50000024020 ****
Griffin threw for 304 yards and four TDs in Dallas last time but two of those were bombs that connected. Griffin has been far less productive in almost every other game thanks to the defense and rushing game which both come into play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS DAL 11011100000 *****
Morris already ran for 113 yards and one score in Dallas and the Cowboys defense continues to be victimized up the middle. He should be a lock for good to great yards and one score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS DAL 007901000 *****
Garcon has been money every week since he posted 4-86 and a TD in Dallas. He's a lock to be heavily relied on and should see one of the passing scores as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Santana Moss, WAS DAL 004401000 ****
Moss has long been a Cowboy killer and posted 4-42 and one touchdown in Dallas this year. He's been well below 60 yards every game for almost the entire season though. His eight touchdowns shows he's a sure threat in the redzone but rarely used otherwise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Logan Paulsen, WAS DAL 002200000 ***
The Redskins have never used their TE's enough this year to matter. All combined they have two touchdowns and just one for Paulsen.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS DAL 2133 ****
WAS kicker always a marginal start.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS ----- 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 260,2
RB Doug Martin 80 3-20
WR Vincent Jackson 7-110,1
WR Mike Williams 5-70,1
TE Dallas Clark 2-20
PK Connor Barth 2 FG 2 XP
PK Nate Kaeding

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers should see a spike in scoring this week since they cannot get much lower. In Dallas they were held to only one touchdown and Josh Freeman has two games with fewer than 140 passing yards. But he has scored at least once each week. Freeman scored four times against three interceptions and has almost no rushing yardage this year.

Doug Martin is struggling behind a poor offensive line and currently has rushed for 214 yards on 63 carries for only a 3.4 yard average. But he is often met at the line by defenders and has looked sharp if only in brief moments when he breaks free. Martin has only a marginal role as a receiver since the Buccaneers offense just do not employ backs as pass catchers much.

The tight end spot has not evaporated with Dallas Clark gaining no yardage on his one catch against the Cowboys. Luke Stocker scored in Dallas but it was his only catch of the year.

After recording a touchdown in each of his first two games, Mike Williams was blanketed by the Cowboys as was Vincent Jackson who had just one catch in that game after gaining 128 yards and a touchdown in New York. Martin has the running back spot locked up but has not been able to make it very productive yet. The receivers still revolve almost entirely around Jackson and Williams.

The Skins have been good against the run and bad against the pass. This is a good chance for Freeman to get in some better yardage and scoring. The Skins have been allowing over 30 points per opponent but that's hard to expect from an offense that has sputtered twice this year. This week should be the start of a very nice stretch of an easy schedule, at least for the passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 31 23 28 30 18 5
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 32 8 32 30 18 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Freeman, TB @ATL 0000026011 ***
Riding a five-game losing streak, about all the Bucs have going for them is that Atlanta is more concerned about resting regulars for the postseason than winning this game. Expect Freeman to get the 157 yards he needs for a 4,000-yard season, and probably even a little more.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @ATL 10014300000 ***
The ROY award is out of reach, but Martin would still like to wrap up his first NFL season on a strong note. He scored twice in the earlier meeting with Atlanta, and he should see plenty of touches against a disinterested defense to pad his stat totals.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Williams, TB @ATL 005701000 ***
Whatever resources remain in the Atlanta secondary after the regulars have been benched will likely be focusing on Vincent Jackson. Williams has made a killing on similar situations all season, and he's in line to do so again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @ATL 004800000 ***
Jackson is a favored target of Josh Freeman, so with Freeman needing some yardage to crack 4K he'll continue to see his looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tiquan Underwood, TB @ATL 002300000 ***
Underwood has been Tampa Bay's third man in in the passing game, but it hasn't constituted much in the way of fantasy help. Unless Vincent Jackson and/or Mike Williams get an early and extended breather, it probably won't help here either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dallas Clark, TB @ATL 004400000 ***
Clark hasn't been a huge focus in the Tampa Bay passing game, but he's veteran enough to know that he's either auditioning for more looks next year or putting together tape to show his next prospective employer.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, TB @ATL 2122 ***
Barth might get a few additional opportunities against a disinterested Atlanta defense, but that's hardly something to hang your fantasy hat on.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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