FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: WAS 24, TB 20 (Line: TB by 3)

Players to Watch: Fred Davis

Players Updated: Pierre Garcon

The 1-2 Redskins have been a boon to the fantasy world with 59+ total points in each of their games. The 1-2 Buccaneers have followed the same pattern as the Skins only without all those points. One of these teams will have lost three games in a row which is just about spinning out of control. With the way both teams have played, this is a coin flip game that may end up with 25 total points or 75 total points.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB ----- 13 NYG -----
5 ATL ----- 14 BAL -----
6 MIN ----- 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 30,1 270,2
RB Alfred Morris 70
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Leonard Hankerson 6-90,1
WR DeSean Jackson 4-70
WR Santana Moss 3-40
WR Andre Roberts 4-50
WR Aldrick Robinson 2-40

Pregame Notes: That win in week one is a little less impressive now that the Saints are 0-3 but losing to the Rams and the Bengals are troublesome since no one knew the Rams had an offense. You cannot fault the Skins offense that has posted 28 points or more in every game. But the Redskins have allowed 101 points and cannot stop the bleeding. The Rams and the Bengals?

Robert Griffin III had been more effective as a runner than a passer in recent games though he has always thrown for at least one touchdown per game and never gained fewer than 206 passing yards. Griffin has three rushing touchdowns on the season and ran for over 80 yards in the last two losses.

Alfred Morris still has fantasy value as the primary back but slipped to 78 yards on 17 runs last week with one touchdown. Morris has not caught any passes so far. What works in his favor this week is that Evan Royster has a strained patellar tendon and Roy Helu has turf toe so Morris should get no less of a load and possibly all the carries this week.

Pierre Garcon remains out with his foot injury and HC Mike Shanahan is not interested in clearing up when Garcon will be back. I will assume he is out until he gets a full practice. Leonard Hankerson has earned a starting role and has been the most productive wide receiver for the last two weeks. Aldrick Robinson has faded to only one catch last Sunday and Santana Moss has been little used. The only development here is that Fred Davis was finally a big part of the passing equation when he caught seven passes for 90 yards. With Garcon out, Davis should continue to be the main target for Griffin.

How this game plays out will be interesting since Cam Newton passed for 303 yards there in the season opener and yet had no rushing success. Eli Manning passed for 510 yards and three scores but then Tony Romo was unable to score on the Buccaneers. The Bucs defense has been good against the run and horrible against the pass - for the most part.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 14 12 19 12 3
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 22 6 31 9 25 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @NYG 0000023012 ***
The Giants have given up multiple passing scores just twice in the past nine games, a stretch that included holding Robert Griffin III to 207 and 1. Cousins lit up Atlanta and looked ordinary against Dallas; with this matchup tending to be more on the tough side, Cousins' fantasy prospects are limited.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS @NYG 5001100000 ****
Morris rushed for 26 yards and a score in the Week 13 meeting with the Giants, adding another 27 as a receiver. That marked the start of a four-game stretch in which the Giants allowed at least one RB TD, a total of six scores in that span. With Morris continuing to get the bulk of the carries in DC, and coming off 98- and 88-yard efforts the past two weeks, there's no reason to think Alf can't at least match that earlier output
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @NYG 005700000 ***
Garcon has seen double-digit targets in nine straight games, including 12 for 9-61 in the earlier meeting with the Giants and 18 for 11-144-1 last week. He's also scored and topped 100 yards in each of the past two games with Kirk Cousins at the helm; no reason to think he won't be Cousins' go-to guy once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @NYG 005600000 ***
Jackson had his worst game of the season against Dallas earlier this year, catching just three balls for 21 yards. His second-worst came last week as he saw just five targets with Philly rolling to a 43-point win over Chicago. In between he's scored four times and topped 150 yards twice. With the division on the line, look for something much more compatible with your fantasy lineup this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Logan Paulsen, WAS @NYG 003400000 ***
Paulsen scored in the earlier meeting with the Giants just a month ago, but with Fred Davis back in the mix and the two sharing looks you can't bank on either for a fantasy contribution.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS @NYG 2211 ***
Forbath posted his first double-digit game in more than two months last week, and while the Giants are hardly defensive stoppers there's little reason to be optimistic about a repeat performance here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS ----- 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Doug Martin 80 3-20
WR Vincent Jackson 7-110,1
PK Connor Barth 2 FG 2 XP
PK Rian Lindell 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers should see a spike in scoring this week since they cannot get much lower. In Dallas they were held to only one touchdown and Josh Freeman has two games with fewer than 140 passing yards. But he has scored at least once each week. Freeman scored four times against three interceptions and has almost no rushing yardage this year.

Doug Martin is struggling behind a poor offensive line and currently has rushed for 214 yards on 63 carries for only a 3.4 yard average. But he is often met at the line by defenders and has looked sharp if only in brief moments when he breaks free. Martin has only a marginal role as a receiver since the Buccaneers offense just do not employ backs as pass catchers much.

The tight end spot has not evaporated with Dallas Clark gaining no yardage on his one catch against the Cowboys. Luke Stocker scored in Dallas but it was his only catch of the year.

After recording a touchdown in each of his first two games, Mike Williams was blanketed by the Cowboys as was Vincent Jackson who had just one catch in that game after gaining 128 yards and a touchdown in New York. Martin has the running back spot locked up but has not been able to make it very productive yet. The receivers still revolve almost entirely around Jackson and Williams.

The Skins have been good against the run and bad against the pass. This is a good chance for Freeman to get in some better yardage and scoring. The Skins have been allowing over 30 points per opponent but that's hard to expect from an offense that has sputtered twice this year. This week should be the start of a very nice stretch of an easy schedule, at least for the passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 31 23 28 30 18 5
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 32 8 32 30 18 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mike Glennon, TB @NO 0000016001 ***
Glennon has been shut out in his last two road games and hasn't seen the north side of 250 yards since Week 8. Josh Freeman mustered just 125 yards and a score in the earlier meeting with New Orleans; now Glennon travels to the SuperDome, where expectations should be kept in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bobby Rainey, TB @NO 6002100000 ***
Doug Martin rolled the Saints for a season-high 144 yards back in Week 2; since then Mike James took Seattle for 158 and Bobby Rainey dropped 163 on Atlanta and 127 on the Bills. Both of Rainey's efforts came at home, however, so dial back your expectations for this trip to the SuperDome.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @NO 005700000 **
Jackson posted 5-77 against the Saints earlier this season, but Kevin Ogletree swiped his touchdown. No worries; over the past six games V-Jax has dominated the Bucs' passing game stat sheet with 527 yards and three TDs. He's heavily targeted and worthy of fantasy consideration even when the matchup seems tough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Timothy Wright, TB @NO 004400000 ***
Wright wasn't even on the radar when these teams met back in Week 2. Now he's scored in two of the last three and is one of the team's top secondary targets. Three of the five TE TDs the Saints have allowed have come in the past six games, so there's at least a chance Wright makes some fantasy noise here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Rian Lindell, TB @NO 3200 ***
Lindell's worst game of the season came at home against the Saints back in Week 2; don't expect things to get significantly better on the road against a Saints team playing for its playoff life.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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