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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

Prediction: WAS 24, TB 20 (Line: TB by 3)

Players to Watch: Fred Davis

Players Updated: Pierre Garcon

The 1-2 Redskins have been a boon to the fantasy world with 59+ total points in each of their games. The 1-2 Buccaneers have followed the same pattern as the Skins only without all those points. One of these teams will have lost three games in a row which is just about spinning out of control. With the way both teams have played, this is a coin flip game that may end up with 25 total points or 75 total points.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB ----- 13 NYG -----
5 ATL ----- 14 BAL -----
6 MIN ----- 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Pierre Garcon
WR DeSean Jackson 4-70
TE Vernon Davis 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: That win in week one is a little less impressive now that the Saints are 0-3 but losing to the Rams and the Bengals are troublesome since no one knew the Rams had an offense. You cannot fault the Skins offense that has posted 28 points or more in every game. But the Redskins have allowed 101 points and cannot stop the bleeding. The Rams and the Bengals?

Robert Griffin III had been more effective as a runner than a passer in recent games though he has always thrown for at least one touchdown per game and never gained fewer than 206 passing yards. Griffin has three rushing touchdowns on the season and ran for over 80 yards in the last two losses.

Alfred Morris still has fantasy value as the primary back but slipped to 78 yards on 17 runs last week with one touchdown. Morris has not caught any passes so far. What works in his favor this week is that Evan Royster has a strained patellar tendon and Roy Helu has turf toe so Morris should get no less of a load and possibly all the carries this week.

Pierre Garcon remains out with his foot injury and HC Mike Shanahan is not interested in clearing up when Garcon will be back. I will assume he is out until he gets a full practice. Leonard Hankerson has earned a starting role and has been the most productive wide receiver for the last two weeks. Aldrick Robinson has faded to only one catch last Sunday and Santana Moss has been little used. The only development here is that Fred Davis was finally a big part of the passing equation when he caught seven passes for 90 yards. With Garcon out, Davis should continue to be the main target for Griffin.

How this game plays out will be interesting since Cam Newton passed for 303 yards there in the season opener and yet had no rushing success. Eli Manning passed for 510 yards and three scores but then Tony Romo was unable to score on the Buccaneers. The Bucs defense has been good against the run and horrible against the pass - for the most part.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 14 12 19 12 3
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 22 6 31 9 25 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @PHI 0000025020 ***
Traveling to a divisional opponent is never ideal, especially in December. The Eagles have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game in the last five weeks, coming from surrendering two passing TDs per game and 288.2 yards through the air.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Kelley, WAS @PHI 8012100000 ***
Kelley may be utilized more this week, although it will come against a challenging opponent. The Eagles have given up only 72.2 rushing yards per contest and a TD every 36.2 carries in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS @PHI 2004300000 ***
Philly has given up the ninth highest average of catches per game (5.4), but that is about it for this bottom-10 matchup. Thompson has just a touch of appeal in super-deep PPRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @PHI 005501000 ***
The 11th best receiver over the last five weeks, Crowder has scored three times in his past four outings. The Eagles have given up the third most points to wideouts in PPR, including allowing a touchdown ever 8.5 catches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @PHI 003401000 ***
Philadelphia has surrendered the third most yards and fantasy points per contest since Week 8. Garcon should be in for a sound PPR game against the 10th weakest defense at stopping receivers from catching the ball.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @PHI 003400000 ***
On paper, this is an ideal matchup for Jackson against his former employer. Philly has allowed the third most yards per game and rate as the fifth softest group against scoring touchdowns. That said, Jackson is a limited player who easily can be removed from a gameplan. Take the chance only in non-PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS @PHI 004500000 *
Reed's status for Week 14 remains unknown. Return for an update later this week.

Update: Reed is questionable but practiced in full on Friday and will start, barring a setback.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS @PHI 003300000 ***
Davis will replace Reed in the lineup if the oft-injured talent cannot go once again. Philadelphia has surrendered two touchdowns on the last 15 receptions granted to tight ends, so there's hope for a decent game. Otherwise, it's a stoutly negative matchup for yards and catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS @PHI 2233 ***
Philadelphia has granted the fourth highest per-game field goal attempt figure and the ninth most extra points per game since Week 8. This among the best overall matchups a kicker can find in Week 14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS ----- 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Doug Martin 80 3-20
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 40 5-40
WR Vincent Jackson 7-110,1
WR Cecil Shorts 2-30
TE Brandon Myers 5-50,1

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers should see a spike in scoring this week since they cannot get much lower. In Dallas they were held to only one touchdown and Josh Freeman has two games with fewer than 140 passing yards. But he has scored at least once each week. Freeman scored four times against three interceptions and has almost no rushing yardage this year.

Doug Martin is struggling behind a poor offensive line and currently has rushed for 214 yards on 63 carries for only a 3.4 yard average. But he is often met at the line by defenders and has looked sharp if only in brief moments when he breaks free. Martin has only a marginal role as a receiver since the Buccaneers offense just do not employ backs as pass catchers much.

The tight end spot has not evaporated with Dallas Clark gaining no yardage on his one catch against the Cowboys. Luke Stocker scored in Dallas but it was his only catch of the year.

After recording a touchdown in each of his first two games, Mike Williams was blanketed by the Cowboys as was Vincent Jackson who had just one catch in that game after gaining 128 yards and a touchdown in New York. Martin has the running back spot locked up but has not been able to make it very productive yet. The receivers still revolve almost entirely around Jackson and Williams.

The Skins have been good against the run and bad against the pass. This is a good chance for Freeman to get in some better yardage and scoring. The Skins have been allowing over 30 points per opponent but that's hard to expect from an offense that has sputtered twice this year. This week should be the start of a very nice stretch of an easy schedule, at least for the passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 31 23 28 30 18 5
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 32 8 32 30 18 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB NO 10000029020 ***
New Orleans ranks evenly against quarterbacks as a neutral matchup in the last five weeks. Sure, Matt Stafford beat them down last week, so there's hope Winston does similar damage. The Bucs don't have the same weapons, but they are not far behind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB NO 6003200000 **
Strangely, the Saints are a good run defense against fantasy backs. Martin just isn't right and has struggled. Nevertheless, he deserves a low-end lineup spot this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, TB NO 2001100000 *
Quizz has returned to health but could lose touches if Charles Sims goes this week. Either way, he shouldn't be counted on for playoff leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB NO 007801000 ***
Evans was held in check last week against the Bolts, but that shouldn't be a sign of things to come. New Orleans has given up six TDs in this last five games to receivers, plus the 11th most fantasy points, on average, in this period.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Freddie Martino, TB NO 004600000 **
Martino was the surprise hero a week ago. With such a limited track record, gamers may want to err on the side of caution. The Saints at least present a top-12 matchup for those few brave owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Russell Shepard, TB NO 005500000 ***
The Saints are a fine matchup if you want to take the chance, but there is no justifiable reason in which Shepard should meet your starting lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB NO 005601000 ***
Brate faces a Saints defense that has yielded averages of 4.6 catches, 65.6 yards and a touchdown every 11.5 snares. Brate continues to have a red zone presence and can corral a touchdown with the attention paid to Mike Evans.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Roberto Aguayo, TB NO 4322 ***
This is the best matchup a kicker can face in Week 14 when using data over the last five weeks. The downside comes with Aguayo's erratic accuracy.

WEEK 4
2012
CLE at BAL (THU) *MIN at DET *OAK at DEN *TEN at HOU
CAR at ATL *NE at BUF *SD at KC *WAS at TB
*CIN at JAC *NO at GB *SEA at STL *CHI at DAL (MON)
*Updated *MIA at ARI *NYG at PHI *SF at NYJ Bye: IND, PIT

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