FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: BUF 17, SF 34 (Line: SF by 9.5)

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson

The Bills are 2-2 but their wins have been against teams that total 1-7 on the season. The 49ers return home after completely destroying the Jets in New York. This game does not bode well for the Bills who were already weak against the run.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF ----- 14 STL -----
6 @ARI ----- 15 SEA -----
7 TEN ----- 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Frank Gore 110,2 1-10
RB LeSean McCoy 80 4-20
WR Andre Roberts 4-40,1
PK Stephen Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Chances are the defense still needs some work with half of the games giving up 48+ points to the opponent. The offense has been good enough to produce at least 24 points each week but as the Saints can attest - it doesn't really matter when you cannot keep up with what your defense allows. The remarkable part of this offense is that they have never scored fewer than three touchdowns in any game and yet just once posted more than 210 passing yards.

Ryan Fitzpatrick already has 12 touchdown passes to lead the NFL. While he threw for 350 yards against the Patriots, all others were far less and he did throw a total of seven interceptions in the two losses. Bottom line - Fitzpatrick has always thrown for at least two scores but his yardage usually remains lower because the running game is working. At least it used to work.

Both C.J. Spiller (8-33) and Fred Jackson (13-29) played against the Patriots and neither did much though Jackson did add 50 yards on three catches. When Jackson was out, Spiller scored in every game and twice gained more than 120 rushing yards thanks to facing the Jets and Browns. Now that both are playing their production gets split up. The next two road games against the 49ers and Cardinals are not likely to be beneficial to the rushing effort.

Scott Chandler is tied with Vernon Davis and Heath Miller with four touchdowns by a tight end. What is a little scary this week is that his two home games saw him post six catches for 115 yards and three touchdowns while the two road efforts only netted six receptions for 60 yards and one score. And this week is a much tougher defense.

To Fitzpatrick's credit, four different wideouts have scored a touchdown and really none have had a big yardage game. Donald Jones gained 90 yards on two catches against New England but otherwise no Bills receiver has more than 61 yards in a game. Stevie Johnson has scored in three games so far as the primary wideout but remains around 50 or so yards per week. Against the Pats, he had a season worst 23 yards on two catches. There are four wideouts that can all score and all will contribute something. It is a surprise that the NFL passing touchdown leader after four weeks does not have any receiver with more than 195 yards on the season.

This is likely a week where the Bills have their worst offensive showing. The 49ers have not allowed any running back touchdowns and the wideouts have just one touchdown against them. They average just over one passing score allowed per game and have already faced Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. Add in the Bills traveling across the country and this smacks of a down game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 8 8 17 14 31 11
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 10 1 10 25 4 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Allen, BUF MIA 50000026021 ***
Allen rushed for a ridiculous 135 yards against the Dolphins in Week 13 and managed to throw two touchdowns. He was one of four quarterbacks to top 30 points vs. Miami this year, and Allen could make for a sneaky play in DFS or two-QB formats this week, especially if Miami is still dealing with injuries in the secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF MIA 6012200000 ***
Even with a good matchup, like this one, McCoy really isn't playable. He was laughably bad last week (1.5 yards per carry). In the Week 13 meeting, Shady went for 52 rushing yards and 12 receiving gains on four receptions -- 10.4 points in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Foster, BUF MIA 005801000 ***
Foster has at least five targets and four receptions in three straight games. New England predictably held him in check last week, since the Bills really offered nothing else to occupy defensive attention in the down-field passing game. The Dolphins held him to just one catch for 27 yards in the Week 13 meeting, so tread carefully if you were anticipating a bounce-back showing. Foster is a so-so gamble in deep formats and a better play if CB Xavien Howard doesn't play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Zay Jones, BUF MIA 005701000 ***
Jones has scored three times in the last four games, coming in two of the contests. He found the end zone twice on four catches for 67 yards against Miami in Week 13 and again vs. the Pats in Week 16. There is a little upside to this one, but be careful. Check to see the final status of Miami cornerback Xavien Howard, too, as it will make difference in the depth of the overall secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Isaiah McKenzie, BUF MIA 2005500000 ***
McKenzie has a little wiggle to his game and was able to post 46 yards on four grabs vs. Miami a few weeks back. He hasn't scored through the air in his short career and has two rushing TDs to his credit. He landed just one of eight targets last week and is not a fantasy asset.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cole Beasley, BUF MIA 005600000 *
Beasley posted a measly 3.3 points in the Week 2 meeting. The slot receiver has just two games with 10-plus points in the last eight outings, and he hasn't scored in nine straight. There's really no big reason to play him, and Dallas could rest its key players at some point, so backup QB Cooper Rush may be throwing to him during the game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, BUF MIA 002200000 ***
Brown (hamstring) has one TD with Lamar Jackson at the helm, and the two have been completely out of sync over that span. Look for much of the same against Cleveland. The Browns have shown improvement of late and held Brown to a 4-58-0 line in the first meeting when Joe Flacco was quarterbacking.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jason Croom, BUF MIA 003300000 ***
Miami offers a decent enough matchup, but there is no incentive otherwise to play Croom. Find a better balance of risk and reward.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Hauschka, BUF MIA 1133 ***
No writeup available

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL -----
2 DET 27-19 11 CHI -----
3 @MIN 13-24 12 @NO -----
4 @NYJ 34-0 13 @STL -----
5 BUF ----- 14 MIA -----
6 NYG ----- 15 @NE -----
7 SEA ----- 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI ----- 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Alfred Morris 90,1
WR Pierre Garcon 3-40
PK Robbie Gould 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win in New York reasserts the 49ers swagger and made some amends for the flat performance in Minnesota that resulted in their only loss. The 49ers also started using a new aspect to the offense and so far it has worked like a charm. That would be the Wildcat formation reaching the west coast a short three years after it started.

Alex Smith has been just a game manager and has yet to throw for more than 226 yards despite a plethora of receivers. But it was not until last week that Colin Kaepernick was given more than one play in the game. He ran five times for 50 yards and one touchdown that looked far too easy when he slipped in untouched. Adding that to the already sold rushing effort means the 49ers can move the ball better, will be harder to defense and can have even more ability to control the clock. How much Kaepernick plays each week may depend on game situation or just coaching whim but it appears to be a high potential aspect to the offense at least occasionally.

Frank Gore has scored in three games but he has minimal role as a receiver and was held to a season low 62 yards on 21 runs. He has been in slight decline since running for 112 yards in the season opener but that likely changes this week with the softer Bills defense coming. Kendall Hunter scored for the first time this year but has never been good for more than around 50 yards. If the 49ers get a big early lead, he may show up this week as well.

Vernon Davis comes off his only bad game of the year with two catches for 28 yards in New York and yet he still has a NFL tight end best four touchdowns shared with Scott Chandler. Davis has one off game with three top efforts. He remains the best receiver on a team that only has one touchdown thrown to any wideout this year - and that was in the season opener. For some reason, the addition of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham just meant good things for Vernon Davis. There is marginal fantasy value in Michael Crabtree and none in the others. Randy Moss never had a catch last week.

When facing the Bills , the decision has to be made how you want to score because both rushing and receiving is going to work. The passing yardage is not going to be high here because it is never high here. This is a good week to own Gore. Not that it is 1:1 by any means, but the Bills just allowed 243 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Patriot running backs last week.

I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 19 16 28 8 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 27 27 24 18 13 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Nick Mullens, SF @LAR 0000024011 ***
Mullens' performances have ranged from last week's 12.1 points vs. Chicago to 28.8 in Week 13 at Seattle. Three of his seven games have gone for 23 or more fantasy points, and he has yet to face LA. The Rams have given up two TD passes in the last four games combined (DET, CHI, PHI, ARI). Mullens is hardly a wise play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF @LAR 6006500000 *
Wilson should see the bulk of the work after -- shocker -- Matt Breida re-injured his ankle in Week 16. Wilson didn't play in the last meeting with LA and is a weak consideration this week. Look for options with more upside and room to work in standard leagues, but he has a shot at being useful in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tevin Coleman, SF @LAR 5002200000 **
Coleman has one game in the last month with more than 5.1 points in PPR. Tampa Bay afforded him 41 total yards and a receiving TD in Week 6. Coleman isn't a safe play by any stretch of the imagination.

Update: After sitting the first two days of practice this week, Coleman was limited Friday but was still removed from the report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendrick Bourne, SF @LAR 004400000 ***
He wasn't a factor in the earlier meeting and is basically useless without a touchdown. Bourne hasn't scored since Week 9 but at least posted a season-best 73 yards last weekend. Look for just about anyone else.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE George Kittle, SF @LAR 006801000 **
Since Kittle went for 210 yards and a score in the first half of the Denver game three weeks ago, he has totaled 10 receptions, 125 yards and no TDs in the last two games. In the Week 7 contest, Kittle produced five receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Continue riding him with confidence.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Robbie Gould, SF @LAR 3311 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

a d v e r t i s e m e n t