FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: CHI 24, JAC 10 (Line: CHI by 4)

Players to Watch: Maurice Jones-Drew

The 3-1 Bears come off a huge confidence booster smacking the Cowboys on Monday night. The 1-3 Jaguars get their third chance at home to score more than one offensive touchdown. That's probably not going to happen.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU -----
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF -----
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN -----
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC ----- 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET ----- 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR ----- 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The Bears put a stamp of credibility on their season with the Monday Night dismantling of the Cowboys in Dallas where they won in all facets of the game. The defense continues to play at a high level if not better each week. Jay Cutler is still somewhat all over the map in production but comes off 275 yards and two scores in Dallas against what used to be good cornerbacks. This week is a second straight road game and comes on a shorter week which could make it tougher. Plus against a weak non-conference team. That is all to say that Cutler could end up with a wide range of potential stats this week. He has been as good as 333 yards and two scores and as bad as 183 yards with no touchdowns.

The most impressive and encouraging part of the Monday night win was the offensive line that limited Cutler to only two sacks and that played noticeably better than they started the season.

Matt Forte returned from his ankle injury and gutted it out but he was clearly still in pain and required his ankle to get rewrapped after having a defender fall on it. Forte was limited to just 13 runs but gained 52 yards while Michael Bush carried ten times for 29 yards. Forte will be six days better this week but that doesn't mean he will be 100%. He is sure to spend much of the practice time resting his ankle. He did not worsen his ankle and should play this week despite the likely practice absences.

Brandon Marshall comes off his best game of the year when he posted 138 yards and one score on seven receptions despite being given the best coverage the Cowboys had to offer. Marshall had two marginal games in recent weeks but came to play in Dallas. If the offense can get more consistency in the passing game, Marshall will be a top wideout for certain. That remains to be seen with the up and down nature of Cutler's passing so far.

No other receiver really matters on this team though Devin Hester caught a rare touchdown last Monday. Alshon Jeffrey has not produced over 45 yards since the season opener. Kellen Davis (3-62) had a freakishly good game for a player that had not been above the 21 yard mark and may not again.

This week Forte gets a shot at a weak rushing defense but he will get help from Michael Bush since he still is not 100% healthy. Cutler goes against a secondary that has allowed two passing scores in the last couple of games and are average at best. WIth the great likelihood that the Jaguars are not going to score much, the Bears won't have to worry about establishing a huge lead to protect.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 25 18 18 31 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 15 28 12 12 25 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI @MIN 20000018011 **
Minnesota has been one of the worst opponents to face for fantasy success in 2018, and one of Trubisky's least productive games came against the Vikes in Week 11. He threw two interceptions to only one touchdown and, in fact, hasn't been much of a fantasy factor since returning in Week 14 from a shoulder injury.

Update: Allen Robinson is doubtful to play in Week 17.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jordan Howard, CHI @MIN 8011100000 **
The matchup has improved a good deal in the last five weeks, but Howard still isn't a sure thing. The Bears could start resting guys later in the game, and Howard was held out of the end zone in the Week 11 contest. This is an optimistic projection.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI @MIN 3004300000 **
Chicago is in a position where they could rest guys late in the game. The matchup isn't ideal, and Minnesota kept Cohen in check in the Week 11 game (8 PPR). Five of the seven touchdowns allowed this year on the ground have come in the last five weeks, but none of the last 27 receptions have scored. Alvin Kamara in Week 8 was the last back to score through the air.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Anthony Miller, CHI @MIN 003301000 **
Miller could be a sneaky play in this one if Allen Robinson doesn't go, but there is far more risky than potential for reward. Look for safer options in most scenarios, but he is playable if you want to take a big chance in DFS.

Update: Robinson is doubtful to play in Week 17.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taylor Gabriel, CHI @MIN 003400000 ***
With exactly three catches in each of his last four games, Gabriel is at least consistent. He hasn't gone over 33 yards in that time, and the speedy wideout has yet to score since posting two TDs in Week 4. He finished with 52 yards on seven catches vs. Minnesota in Week 11. Look for more viable options.

Update: Allen Robinson is doubtful to play in Week 17.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Trey Burton, CHI @MIN 003200000 ***
A week after his first touchdown in six games, Burton caught five balls -- his highest total since Week 7's nine receptions. However, he continued his streak of failing to top the 40-yard mark that began in Week 8. He has three games all year with more than 40 yards, and when he isn't scoring touchdowns, we're left looking at single-digit days in PPR. Burton caught just one pass vs. the Vikings in Week 11.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, CHI @MIN 2211 **
No writeup available

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI ----- 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: After the season opener, there was much optimism about the offense even though it was an overtime loss. Blaine Gabbert passed for 260 yards and two scores. There were new receivers and Maurice Jones-Drew was back after his ill-fated holdout for nothing. But then it only took one week for the Gabbert we knew to show back up. He passed for just 53 yards against the Texans. He has not topped 186 yards since the first game and is mostly grateful that Russell Wilson is the new guy with even worse yardage.

Once again, the Jaguars live and die by whatever Maurice Jones-Drew does and even then that is usually not enough. He has only one big rushing effort so far when they went to Indianapolis and last week was held to 38 yards on 13 runs. After the game, HC Mike Mularkey said they should have ran him more. The reality is they should probably run him on every play that they are not throwing to him.

Laurent Robinson has a concussion and is expected to miss this match-up. He only had one catch in the last two games combined despite being the primary receiver. Justin Blackmon caught six passes for 48 yards against the Bengals which looked huge because his career so far had only produced four receptions for 41 yards.

The only thing that ever happens in this passing offense is when every other game Cecil Shorts catches what turns into a long touchdown. And in his non-scoring weeks, he literally has no catches. Marcedes Lewis scored twice this season with minor yardage and yet his two off games were both one catch for eight or less yards. You really have to hit these receivers on the right week to avoid taking a goose egg from their fantasy score. Not that any of them have any fantasy merit.

The monumental problem this week is that the Bears defense has only allowed one touchdown all year to a running back. They are allowing only 55 rushing yards TOTAL per game and only 3.4 yards per carry. Last week they held DeMarco Murray to only 24 yards on 11 runs. Not a good situation when the entire offense revolves around Maurice Jones-Drew.

It helps to play the Bears on their second straight road game and in a short week for them. But chances are high it won't matter much to a team that has never had much offensive punch in two years.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 31 15 30 30 28 31
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 4 8 20 31 5 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 30000019000 ***
"Hooray!" That must be what every one of you is saying about the idea of Blake Bortles returning to a starting lineup. No? No one? Fine ... Houston has been eviscerated by quarterbacks in the last five weeks -- especially so in the last three games. The matchup is tempting for DFS players looking to gain an edge on the competition with a divergent but extremely risky play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC @HOU 4013200000 **
Update: Leonard Fournette (foot, ankle) is unlikely to play with a doubtful tag, which means Yeldon could see the bulk of the work. He was a healthy scratch in Week 16, and Carlos Hyde is questionable to play. This situation is volatile, so look for safer choices with better matchups. RB David Williams may get his shot, though, relegating Yeldon to third-down chores. Yeldon scored a receiving TD in the earlier contest, for whatever it is worth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Carlos Hyde, JAC @HOU 3001100000 *
Update: Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and Hyde, while questionable, could see extra work. He has no fantasy utility, due to a tough matchup, his own injury, and the idea of losing touches to either David Williams or T.J. Yeldon.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, JAC @HOU 003500000 **
Jacksonville turns back to Blake Bortles for the finale, which bodes well for Moncrief. He caught seven balls for 76 yards in the Week 7 contest vs. Houston. The Texans have been atrocious on the back half of the defense in recent weeks. Half of their season-long TD told has come in the past five games. Moncrief could be better than his projection suggests and has a hint of upside in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DJ Chark Jr., JAC @HOU 004400000 ***
Chark should be close to returning this week, and Blake Bortles is back in the lineup. The rookie caught four balls for 31 yards in the last meeting and is not a fantasy option in any setting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC @HOU 004400000 **
This defense has fallen apart on the back end in the last five weeks, giving up six touchdowns (12 on the year) and more than 1,000 yards in those five games. Westbrook was good for only 17 yards in the first game. Blake Bortles returns to the starting lineup, and the second-year receiver has a little appeal for flier purposes.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, JAC @HOU 1111 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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