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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: GB 27, IND 20 (Line: GB by 8.5)

Players to Watch: James Jones, T.Y. Hilton

The Packers rebounded from their loss to the Seahawks by just barely clipping the Saints last week. Now they head to Indianapolis with a 0-1 road record but the Colts just discovered that HC Chuck Pagano has leukemia and will be undergoing treatment. The Colts are 1-2 and coming off their bye week. How the distraction of the coach's condition helps or hinders the Colts cannot be known, but he is a first year coach and many of the Colts players are new to the team anyway. Probably not going to be a "win this one for the gipper" sort of motivation.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND ----- 14 DET -----
6 @HOU ----- 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL ----- 16 TEN -----
8 JAC ----- 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 310,2
RB Cedric Benson 80,1 4-40
WR Randall Cobb 6-60,1
WR James Jones 5-80,1
WR Jordy Nelson 5-70
TE Jermichael Finley 4-50
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: After starting out with three of four games at home, the Packers hit a tougher stretch of the schedule with three straight road trips. Aaron Rodgers finally had a 2011-ish game when he passed for 319 yards and four scores on the Saints after only throwing three touchdowns over the first three games. Another missing element this season has been Rodgers as a runner. He has only averaged 17 rush yards per game and has not scored on the ground yet.

Much of that has to do with the improved ground game afforded by Cedric Benson who still maxes out around 80 yards per game but moves the chains and more importantly allows the Packers to burn up the clock at the end of games without having to punt once every four plays. Benson has been only a moderate fantasy play in any week but has been a benefit to the Packers offense.

Jermichael Finley started out as the main receiver in the Saints game but they quickly turned away from him. Finley ended with four catches for 54 yards which is roughly where he ends up each week. He has not scored since the season opener and only gets five passes per game.

Greg Jennings reinjured his groin against the Saints and may miss this week. James Jones replaced him and posted five catches for 56 yards and two scores in his best fantasy game ever and will continue to take his place if needed. Randall Cobb spent two weeks with only one catch and then reeled in seven receptions for 66 yards last Sunday. He has yet to score and his inconsistency makes him too big of a risk for a fantasy start. Jordy Nelson finally scored this year along with a season best eight catches for 93 yards but his only road game this year resulted in just two catches for 19 yards. He was far more productive at home than on the road in 2011 as well.

The old Packers would roll up a monster score in this game but the 2012 version has been far less prolific so far. But the Colts are weak against the pass which alone is the problem in this game. Even with Jennings out, no reason why the Packers cannot claim this win as they should have in Seattle against a far better defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 15 27 3 10 29 17
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 22 28 1 26 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @MIN 20000026021 ***
The Vikings have held four of the last five quarterbacks they've faced to one or zero touchdown tosses--a streak that includes limiting Rodgers to 286 and 1 in the earlier meeting. Rodgers has torn up the last two defenses he's faced, however, and has historically had his way with the Vikings so it would be silly to doubt him here--especially with a first-round bye on the line for Green Bay.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DuJuan Harris, GB @MIN 3003200000 ***
Throw Harris into the three-ring circus that is the Green Bay ground game. Even if they're as productive this time around as they were in the previous meeting with Minnesota, the three-way split renders each of them difficult fantasy starts at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alex Green, GB @MIN 300000000 ***
The Packers ran with surprising effectiveness in their last meeting with Minnesota, but that was with a Green/James Starks combo. This week Mike McCarthy has indicated he'll use all three of his backs, and that doesn't even include John Kuhn at the stripe. Tough to trust a guy with a three-way split of his team's workload.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ryan Grant, GB @MIN 300000000 ***
Grant rolled the Titans for 80 yards and two TDs last week, but the Vikings are a tougher defense. And with Alex Green healthy the Packers backfield is expected to be a three-way split, which doesn't bode well for Grant's productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, GB @MIN 005601000 ***
The inexplicable NFL leader in touchdown receptions, Jones has benefited by being at times the only healthy receiver in Green Bay. With Jordy Nelson just coming back and Randall Cobb hobbled, Jones could be in line for even more scores this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @MIN 003400000 ***
Nelson is expected to be back for this game, perhaps only for a test drive before the playoffs. He's re-injured himself each time he's tried to come back, so using him in his first game off the bench is definitely risky.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermichael Finley, GB @MIN 003400000 ***
Finley had 60 yards in the previous meeting with Minnesota and has topped 50 yards in five of the last six games. He's borderline trustable in fantasy circles once again.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @MIN 4322 ***
How the Packers still trust this guy with potentially the fate of their season defies explanation. You certainly don't have to do the same with the fate of your fantasy team.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB ----- 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 250,2
QB Andrew Luck 20 300,2
RB Donald Brown 50
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-60,1
WR Reggie Wayne 8-110,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20
TE Coby Fleener 2-20
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their bye week with a 1-2 record but already have some positives to build upon. They also have new challenges with Austin Collie placed on injured reserve thanks to a ruptured right patella tendon. This is a rebuilding year and progress has already been made.

Andrew Luck has thrown a touchdown or two in every game and two of his three games posted over 300 yards. After three games, Luck has a total of 846 passing yards and five touchdowns against four interceptions. Peyton Manning only had 683 yards, two touchdowns and eight interceptions after his first three games as a Colts rookie. There is no denying that Luck has been impressive while working with an aging Reggie Wayne and little else. He even ran for 50 yards in the last game. Granted - not winning a lot but he is posting the statistics and shows fantasy relevance already.

The rushing effort is every bit as bad as expected with Donald Brown leading the way though he has yet to run for over 62 yards per game and has just one score. Brown is averaging 3.6 yards per carry which seems high if you have watched him play. Vick Ballard is even worse so Brown remains in place.

Though Coby Fleener started out with six catches for 82 yards in the season opener, he has only managed two receptions for 16 yards over the last two weeks and is not even getting the looks. As Luck becomes more comfortable, he is throwing farther down the field and has little use for tight ends. Reggie Wayne is the lone consistent play here but both Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton have one game over 100 yards sandwiched by far lesser efforts.This is an offense in progress and Luck is still sorting out who does what. With 40 targets in three games, Wayne has seen a nice increase in production after a horrible 2011 had many questioning if his career was in sharp decline.

The Packers show up with a very good rushing defense and there is hardly anyone from the Colts to worry about when they run. This will, as will most games, end up as a passing shootout with Luck trying valiantly to keep up and offering some decent fantasy value. The Packers pass defense was exposed last week when they finally faced a better passer than Alex Smith, Jay Cutler and Russell Wilson.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 12 28 5 22 26 23
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 17 16 19 9 9 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND HOU 20000028022 ***
Luck has the double task of extending his own rookie passing record and improving the Colts' playoff seed. He's hovered around 200 yards each of the past three games, but he did throw two TDs against the Texans a couple weeks back. Luck averaged around 280 passing yards per game at home, and with a little something still left to play for look for him to keep chucking.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Vick Ballard, IND HOU 8003200000 ***
Ballard banged out 105 yards against the Texans a couple weeks back--yes, the same Texans' D that held Adrian Peterson in check last week. With playoff seeding on the line, expect a better effort from Houston's run defense--and more of the offensive load to fall on Andrew Luck and the passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND HOU 006801000 ***
Houston held Wayne in check a couple weeks back, but a dozen targets and a touchdown last week against the Chiefs provides reassurance that he's still Andrew Luck's go-to guy. This game still has meaning, so Wayne won't be ignored.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND HOU 004600000 ***
Hilton was Indy's leading receiver in the previous meeting with Houston, but he's reliant on a home run ball and as such difficult to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, IND HOU 003300000 **
with Matt Leinart last week, DHB only gained 2-31. Throw in Terrelle Pryor this week and no reason to touch any Raiders receiver.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND HOU 004401000 ***
The Texans have given up four TE TDs in the past three games, including one to Allen two weeks back. And with Coby Fleener still a non-factor, Allen isn't a bad bet to reprise his production from a couple weeks ago.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND HOU 2122 ***
Vinny has multiple treys in each of his last three at home, and with Indy still looking to improve its playoff lot he should get plenty of chances to swing the leg this week.

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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