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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: HOU 31, NYJ 13 (Line: HOU by 9)

Players to Watch: Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow

Players Updated: Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill, Ben Tate

The 4-0 Texans are back on the road but still have not scored less than 27 points in any game. The 2-2 Jets may be .500 but are on the verge of complete armageddon according to the media who delights in such. This could be a trap game, but it would need to happen in an alternate universe and would not be broadcasted on NFL Sunday Ticket unless you purchased the HBO/Dual Reality Package.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI -----
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ ----- 14 @NE -----
6 GB ----- 15 IND -----
7 BAL ----- 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 270,1
WR Demaryius Thomas 6-80,1

Pregame Notes: Tough game in Denver but otherwise - this has been a cakewalk so far. Three wins were by 20+ points and the Houston defense has been only let up at the end of games to allow a little trash yardage and maybe a score. The passing offense under Matt Schaub has largely been mediocre in stats simply because they were not needed but in the one close game, he threw for 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. Schaub is only playing up to the level he needs to and with once again a premier rushing offense, he is just rarely that productive.

Arian Foster has scored in each game and never gained fewer than 79 rushing yards. His role as a receiver has been mostly limited but he makes that up with big rushing yards and touchdowns. Ben Tate is just a relief player and his two scores in the Jacksonville win along with his 74 rushing yards were just a one-time thing. Tate has produced under 30 total yards in all but one game. Foster remains an elite back with a heavy load.

The passing may not be prolific but Owen Daniels has caught a touchdown in both of the last two games and he has always been good for around 50 yards worth of production each week.

As so often happens, the tremendous success of both the rushing effort and the defense means that the minimal passing needs affect all receivers including Andre Johnson. He has two scores on the year but he is only averaging three catches for around 50 yards per game over the last three weeks. No doubt he will come back into play in upcoming weeks with the likes of the Packers and Ravens up next. But against the Jets? Could be another low effort from a guy you have to start regardless because of his potential every week.

No other receiver matters here - ever. The fantasy value has dwindled down to only Foster, Daniels in a pinch and Johnson with your fingers crossed.

The Jets started the season by giving up 169 rush yards to C.J. Spiller and three weeks later have yielded seven rushing touchdowns and well over 100 yards to runners from every opponent other than the Steelers. With the Jets losing Darrelle Revis and now Santonio Holmes, the disarray is ripe for a bulldozer job by the Texans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 21 2 29 9 10 2
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 8 25 6 10 16 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU @NYJ 30000023020 ***
The Jets have yielded a lot of room on the ground in 2018 and have been moderately capable against quarterbacks. In the past five weeks, this is the top matchup for big plays. Passers have averaged a modest 250.8 yards and 1.5 TDs a game. Watson has been somewhat disappointing in the last six weeks. He has two games of 30-plus points, but the others were 22 or fewer.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, HOU @NYJ 7012200000 ***
The matchup actually skews negative, but that isn't to say Miller cannot find room to work. This is a the quality opponent for yardage (5th) on the ground and even offers a decent shot at a TD (12th) based on data from the last five weeks. The Jets have been strong against pass-catching backs, which isn't exactly Miller's cup of tea.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Blue, HOU @NYJ 400000000 ***
Even with a touchdown, like we saw last week, Blue's limited returns make him a bench or waiver body in fantasy. He hasn't topped nine PPR points since Week 5 and now could lose work to D'Onta Foreman.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB D'Onta Foreman, HOU @NYJ 200000000 *
He was activated last week but didn't see the Week 14 active lineup on game day and is potentially in the same situation once again. Avoid him in all settings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @NYJ 0071101000 ***
Hopkins should ball out for gamers in Week 15 against a Jets defense that has been hammered by the position this year. Despite upgrades to the secondary in the past two offseasons, New York has allowed the third-most points per game in PPR, fueled by submitting to the third-most yardage on weekly clip. WRs have scored once per outing, on average, and this is a stellar matchup for racking up receptions. Enjoy!
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demaryius Thomas, HOU @NYJ 004500000 ***
Thomas could get in on the action this week. The Jets have been laughable in their defense of the position, especially in PPR. This is the third-best matchup of the week, and no team has yielded more yards to WRs in the last five weeks (208.8/game). This is a safe projection for Thomas, but note he has definite upside in this one.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keke Coutee, HOU @NYJ 00000000 *
Coutee remains out of action and is inching closer to a return. Check back for an update.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Thomas, HOU @NYJ 002101000 *
The Jets have yielded only 37 catches for 451 yards vs. TEs this year, though five of them have scored, so there's a hint of upside for a cheap TD.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU @NYJ 1133 ***
No writeup available

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Bilal Powell 30 4-30
WR Andre Roberts 4-40,1

Pregame Notes: Few teams are 2-2 and have as much bad press as the Jets but then again, losing 0-34 at home to anyone is going to draw negative attention. Plus losing Santonio Holmes who was not only marginally productive, he was clearly the best weapon they had. Plus we have the obligatory "What about Tebow>" side story that only gets stronger with every bad game by Mark Sanchez.

There are even rumors that the owner is lobbying for Tim Tebow to start.

Since the season opener, Sanchez has only thrown two touchdowns and twice failed to reach 140 pass yards. That couples with a horrible rushing attack. In the meltdown against the 49ers, Sanchez only completed 13 of 29 passes for 103 yards and one interception. He had a nice throw to Holmes who crumpled untouched in pain while handing the ball to a defender who scored a touchdown. It kind of is not Sanchez fault.

He has no help.

Holmes is gone for the season with a Lis Franc injury. Stephen Hill has been nursing a hamstring strain. Patrick Turner was cut. Jeremy Kerley has scored twice this year and been as close to a productive wideout as it gets for the Jets but he is no #1 guy on any other team. Tim Tebow has one pass and that was last week when he connected with Dedrick Epps who got busted in the knee and was released on Monday. Dustin Keller has been gone since week one with a hamstring injury. Last year there were veterans like Plaxico Burress, Derrick Mason and Holmes. Guys who at least once upon a time were productive. Now it is Jeremy Kerley and Chaz Schilens as the starting receivers? Joe McKnight was changed to a cornerback last week, did poorly on his few plays and is back to being just more dead space on the running back depth chart.

It would make some sense to use Tebow in a rush heavy attack only there are no running backs on the roster that we know of. Shonn Greene may have finally wore out his welcome after four years of falling forward and trying to roll. HC Rex Ryan said he would consider other runners but then gave Greene 11 carries (34 yards) and Bilal Powell only ran four times (11 yards). There are only two real answers here.

1. Start Jonathan Grimes at running back. Yes, he comes from the HOU practice squad and will probably suck as much as Greene and Powell but we don't know that for sure yet. Or maybe Lex Hilliard who just signed.

2. Start Tebow and just let him run it every play. The wins won't likely come but at least the media finally gets what they want.

This will be an interesting week to see how the Jets respond. They are 2-2. But they look like they may be 2-14 at the end.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 31 19 28 25 6
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 2 14 2 6 3 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ HOU 20000020011 ***
Expect a much tougher time this week than against the Bills. Even though he wasn't sacked in Week 14, Darnold still failed to top 175 yards passing and threw just one TD. He has not posted more than 14 fantasy points in any of his last three starts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ HOU 4013200000 **
He returned to a limited Wednesday session with an ankle injury and appears poised to play. He will be needed with Isaiah Crowell (foot) seemingly resigned to missing his first NFL game. Houston has been far more accommodating to pass-catching work by RBs in 2018, allowing only 874 rushing yards and seven scores vs. a 74-523-5 line through the sky.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ HOU 00000000 *
Crowell is iffy to play this week and was wearing a boot after leaving early last week. Check back for an update.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ HOU 005601000 *
Only Jacksonville has given up fewer touchdowns in 2018 than the Texans. Anderson scored last week on a crazy play thanks to Sam Darnold running like Forrest Gump just to buy enough time to throw the ball. That was his only TD grab in the last six games, but he had been hampered by injuries until recently. This projection is on the hopeful side, so utilize him only if you have no better choices.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ HOU 004400000 ***
He hasn't scored a TD since Week 1 and has failed to top five catches in any game since the second week of the year. Enunwa isn't a credible fantasy option in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ HOU 003300000 ***
Kearse has too small of a role in a limited passing offense and faces a dominant defense against wide receiver TDs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ HOU 004400000 ***
Houston has granted the fifth-most yards to tight ends since Week 9 on the 11th-most receptions. Over that span, three in 23 balls went into the end zone, which checks in as the eighth-highest frequency. Herndon has sneaky value for gamers in a rough spot at the position, but he is more ideally suited for DFS action or as a flex.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, NYJ HOU 0022 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

a d v e r t i s e m e n t