FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: HOU 31, NYJ 13 (Line: HOU by 9)

Players to Watch: Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow

Players Updated: Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill, Ben Tate

The 4-0 Texans are back on the road but still have not scored less than 27 points in any game. The 2-2 Jets may be .500 but are on the verge of complete armageddon according to the media who delights in such. This could be a trap game, but it would need to happen in an alternate universe and would not be broadcasted on NFL Sunday Ticket unless you purchased the HBO/Dual Reality Package.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI -----
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ ----- 14 @NE -----
6 GB ----- 15 IND -----
7 BAL ----- 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 270,1

Pregame Notes: Tough game in Denver but otherwise - this has been a cakewalk so far. Three wins were by 20+ points and the Houston defense has been only let up at the end of games to allow a little trash yardage and maybe a score. The passing offense under Matt Schaub has largely been mediocre in stats simply because they were not needed but in the one close game, he threw for 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. Schaub is only playing up to the level he needs to and with once again a premier rushing offense, he is just rarely that productive.

Arian Foster has scored in each game and never gained fewer than 79 rushing yards. His role as a receiver has been mostly limited but he makes that up with big rushing yards and touchdowns. Ben Tate is just a relief player and his two scores in the Jacksonville win along with his 74 rushing yards were just a one-time thing. Tate has produced under 30 total yards in all but one game. Foster remains an elite back with a heavy load.

The passing may not be prolific but Owen Daniels has caught a touchdown in both of the last two games and he has always been good for around 50 yards worth of production each week.

As so often happens, the tremendous success of both the rushing effort and the defense means that the minimal passing needs affect all receivers including Andre Johnson. He has two scores on the year but he is only averaging three catches for around 50 yards per game over the last three weeks. No doubt he will come back into play in upcoming weeks with the likes of the Packers and Ravens up next. But against the Jets? Could be another low effort from a guy you have to start regardless because of his potential every week.

No other receiver matters here - ever. The fantasy value has dwindled down to only Foster, Daniels in a pinch and Johnson with your fingers crossed.

The Jets started the season by giving up 169 rush yards to C.J. Spiller and three weeks later have yielded seven rushing touchdowns and well over 100 yards to runners from every opponent other than the Steelers. With the Jets losing Darrelle Revis and now Santonio Holmes, the disarray is ripe for a bulldozer job by the Texans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 21 2 29 9 10 2
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 8 25 6 10 16 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU NYG 50100025021 ***
Only the Redskins have permitted fewer yards per game than the Giants' 168, and quarterbacks have managed to throw just two TD passes over 34 completions, which rates 21st. This is the fifth-worst opponent from a fantasy-points-against perspective.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, HOU NYG 10001100000 ***
Running backs have averaged 86.5 rushing yards and 5.5 receptions for 20.5 yards against the Giants this year. One of the 41 carries scored, as did one of 11 catches. This is the seventh-worst matchup for overall offensive yards, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU NYG 006901000 ***
The hosting Houston offense shouldn't have much trouble against a Giants defense that has not faced the likes of this passing game yet in 2018. Jacksonville and Dallas are not what anyone would call consistently dangerous aerial assaults, so put little stock in the numbers after two games. Hopkins should be just fine.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Will Fuller V, HOU NYG 006801000 ***
Fuller return after missing Week 1 with a bang, going for 8-113-1 on his nine looks. The Texans' passing game clicks as well as any when he's in the game. New York has given up some of the lowest numbers in the game to WRs over two weeks, but their opponents (JAX, DAL) haven't exactly been powerhouses at the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Bruce Ellington, HOU NYG 003400000 ***
Ellington's role regressed from eight targets to three with the return of Will Fuller in the lineup last week. Short of being a wild DFS play, there's no reason to utilize Ellington in Week 3.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU NYG 1133 ***
All eight kicks, which have been split evenly, have sailed through the uprights against the Giants. This has been good for eight fantasy points per contest.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Bilal Powell 30 4-30
WR Andre Roberts 4-40,1

Pregame Notes: Few teams are 2-2 and have as much bad press as the Jets but then again, losing 0-34 at home to anyone is going to draw negative attention. Plus losing Santonio Holmes who was not only marginally productive, he was clearly the best weapon they had. Plus we have the obligatory "What about Tebow>" side story that only gets stronger with every bad game by Mark Sanchez.

There are even rumors that the owner is lobbying for Tim Tebow to start.

Since the season opener, Sanchez has only thrown two touchdowns and twice failed to reach 140 pass yards. That couples with a horrible rushing attack. In the meltdown against the 49ers, Sanchez only completed 13 of 29 passes for 103 yards and one interception. He had a nice throw to Holmes who crumpled untouched in pain while handing the ball to a defender who scored a touchdown. It kind of is not Sanchez fault.

He has no help.

Holmes is gone for the season with a Lis Franc injury. Stephen Hill has been nursing a hamstring strain. Patrick Turner was cut. Jeremy Kerley has scored twice this year and been as close to a productive wideout as it gets for the Jets but he is no #1 guy on any other team. Tim Tebow has one pass and that was last week when he connected with Dedrick Epps who got busted in the knee and was released on Monday. Dustin Keller has been gone since week one with a hamstring injury. Last year there were veterans like Plaxico Burress, Derrick Mason and Holmes. Guys who at least once upon a time were productive. Now it is Jeremy Kerley and Chaz Schilens as the starting receivers? Joe McKnight was changed to a cornerback last week, did poorly on his few plays and is back to being just more dead space on the running back depth chart.

It would make some sense to use Tebow in a rush heavy attack only there are no running backs on the roster that we know of. Shonn Greene may have finally wore out his welcome after four years of falling forward and trying to roll. HC Rex Ryan said he would consider other runners but then gave Greene 11 carries (34 yards) and Bilal Powell only ran four times (11 yards). There are only two real answers here.

1. Start Jonathan Grimes at running back. Yes, he comes from the HOU practice squad and will probably suck as much as Greene and Powell but we don't know that for sure yet. Or maybe Lex Hilliard who just signed.

2. Start Tebow and just let him run it every play. The wins won't likely come but at least the media finally gets what they want.

This will be an interesting week to see how the Jets respond. They are 2-2. But they look like they may be 2-14 at the end.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 31 19 28 25 6
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 2 14 2 6 3 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ @CLE 0000025021 ***
There are too many solid passers this week to take a shot on Darnold against a promising Cleveland defense (3 TDs, 3 INTs in two games). Look for a better way of finding quarterback points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ @CLE 5001100000 ***
One in every 26.5 rushing attempts have made it into the end zone thus far against the Browns. Cleveland has given up 99 rushing yards and 57 receiving gains to the position. This is a top-eight matchup in both primary scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @CLE 2005400000 ***
Powell's only meaningful contributions come via the sky. The position has averaged six catches for 57 yards against the Browns so far -- numbers on the periphery of being a positive matchup. Powell has flex value.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @CLE 0071001000 ***
Sam Darnold loves himself some Enunwa. The well-built wideout has 21 targets, good for 13-155-1 in this first two games of 2018. Cleveland offers a promising matchup. The Browns have given up the eighth-most receptions and ninth-most yards per game but only three TDs in the last 32 grabs have found paydirt (21st).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @CLE 003401000 ***
After a 2017 season that promised hope for a true breakout, Anderson's game has almost vanished with Sam Darnold starting over Josh McCown. The pair have hooked up for only four receptions on six targets in two games, but Anderson found the end zone in the opener vs. Detroit. Darnold has favored Quincy Enunwa more than three to one. Cleveland has yielded a fair amount of catches (8th most) and yardage (9th) but only three scores on 32 grabs, or the 11th-toughest figure for exploitation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr., NYJ @CLE 003500000 ***
Pryor has 11 targets this year, producing seven grabs for 133 yards. Facing his former team could add some incentive, although his role is just barely enough to make him a consideration. The Browns have given up top-10 stats for catches and yardage through two weeks, permitting three TDs along the way.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, NYJ @CLE 2222 ***
Cleveland offers a midrange option for fantasy purposes after having allowed four field goal tries and as many XPAs. Only 50 percent of the field goals have been accurate, however.

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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