FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: HOU 31, NYJ 13 (Line: HOU by 9)

Players to Watch: Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow

Players Updated: Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill, Ben Tate

The 4-0 Texans are back on the road but still have not scored less than 27 points in any game. The 2-2 Jets may be .500 but are on the verge of complete armageddon according to the media who delights in such. This could be a trap game, but it would need to happen in an alternate universe and would not be broadcasted on NFL Sunday Ticket unless you purchased the HBO/Dual Reality Package.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI -----
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ ----- 14 @NE -----
6 GB ----- 15 IND -----
7 BAL ----- 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 270,1

Pregame Notes: Tough game in Denver but otherwise - this has been a cakewalk so far. Three wins were by 20+ points and the Houston defense has been only let up at the end of games to allow a little trash yardage and maybe a score. The passing offense under Matt Schaub has largely been mediocre in stats simply because they were not needed but in the one close game, he threw for 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. Schaub is only playing up to the level he needs to and with once again a premier rushing offense, he is just rarely that productive.

Arian Foster has scored in each game and never gained fewer than 79 rushing yards. His role as a receiver has been mostly limited but he makes that up with big rushing yards and touchdowns. Ben Tate is just a relief player and his two scores in the Jacksonville win along with his 74 rushing yards were just a one-time thing. Tate has produced under 30 total yards in all but one game. Foster remains an elite back with a heavy load.

The passing may not be prolific but Owen Daniels has caught a touchdown in both of the last two games and he has always been good for around 50 yards worth of production each week.

As so often happens, the tremendous success of both the rushing effort and the defense means that the minimal passing needs affect all receivers including Andre Johnson. He has two scores on the year but he is only averaging three catches for around 50 yards per game over the last three weeks. No doubt he will come back into play in upcoming weeks with the likes of the Packers and Ravens up next. But against the Jets? Could be another low effort from a guy you have to start regardless because of his potential every week.

No other receiver matters here - ever. The fantasy value has dwindled down to only Foster, Daniels in a pinch and Johnson with your fingers crossed.

The Jets started the season by giving up 169 rush yards to C.J. Spiller and three weeks later have yielded seven rushing touchdowns and well over 100 yards to runners from every opponent other than the Steelers. With the Jets losing Darrelle Revis and now Santonio Holmes, the disarray is ripe for a bulldozer job by the Texans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 21 2 29 9 10 2
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 8 25 6 10 16 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU JAC 40100018000 ***
Jacksonville has been strong against quarterbacks pretty much all year, and the worst game of Watson's fantasy season came vs. this defense in Week 7. He managed only 139 passing yards and one touchdown, adding 13 yards on the ground. He has been really good the last two games, so stick with him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, HOU JAC 10012200000 **
Miller sat last week and is trending toward playing this week. Check back for an update to be sure.The Jaguars allowed him 100 yards and a TD in Week 7, but the matchup has since soured other than Derrick Henry's aberration a few weeks back.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB D'Onta Foreman, HOU JAC 2004300000 ***
Foreman was pitiful on the ground in his first game since Week 11 of last year. He caught two passes, including a touchdown, to salvage a 10.7-point day in PPR. Lamar Miller is expected to return this week, so keep Foreman on the low end of your list of worthwhile gambles. Jacksonville has been stout all year vs. RBs, with the exception of one notable blip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU JAC 005600000 ***
The star went for 50 yards and a TD on three catches in the earlier meeting. he was good for a 7-55-1 line in last year's home start vs. the Jags. This could be a conservative projection in a way, but it's also a brutal matchup. Play him in traditional leagues but with tempered expectations. He should be avoided in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vyncint Smith, HOU JAC 002300000 ***
With a whopping two NFL grabs to his name, Smith was able to score last week on a 35-yarder. He is currently averaging 31.5 yards per catch in his extremely small sample size. The Jaguars are about as tough as they come vs. WRs, and Smith shouldn't be a factor in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keke Coutee, HOU JAC 002300000 *
Coutee looks like he is on track to play this week but shouldn't be a part of the plan in fantasy lineups. Jacksonville has smothered WRs this year, and while he will have a larger role with Demaryius Thomas lost for the year, the rookie is too risky of a play for most situations.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU JAC 1133 ***
No writeup available

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU ----- 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Bilal Powell 30 4-30

Pregame Notes: Few teams are 2-2 and have as much bad press as the Jets but then again, losing 0-34 at home to anyone is going to draw negative attention. Plus losing Santonio Holmes who was not only marginally productive, he was clearly the best weapon they had. Plus we have the obligatory "What about Tebow>" side story that only gets stronger with every bad game by Mark Sanchez.

There are even rumors that the owner is lobbying for Tim Tebow to start.

Since the season opener, Sanchez has only thrown two touchdowns and twice failed to reach 140 pass yards. That couples with a horrible rushing attack. In the meltdown against the 49ers, Sanchez only completed 13 of 29 passes for 103 yards and one interception. He had a nice throw to Holmes who crumpled untouched in pain while handing the ball to a defender who scored a touchdown. It kind of is not Sanchez fault.

He has no help.

Holmes is gone for the season with a Lis Franc injury. Stephen Hill has been nursing a hamstring strain. Patrick Turner was cut. Jeremy Kerley has scored twice this year and been as close to a productive wideout as it gets for the Jets but he is no #1 guy on any other team. Tim Tebow has one pass and that was last week when he connected with Dedrick Epps who got busted in the knee and was released on Monday. Dustin Keller has been gone since week one with a hamstring injury. Last year there were veterans like Plaxico Burress, Derrick Mason and Holmes. Guys who at least once upon a time were productive. Now it is Jeremy Kerley and Chaz Schilens as the starting receivers? Joe McKnight was changed to a cornerback last week, did poorly on his few plays and is back to being just more dead space on the running back depth chart.

It would make some sense to use Tebow in a rush heavy attack only there are no running backs on the roster that we know of. Shonn Greene may have finally wore out his welcome after four years of falling forward and trying to roll. HC Rex Ryan said he would consider other runners but then gave Greene 11 carries (34 yards) and Bilal Powell only ran four times (11 yards). There are only two real answers here.

1. Start Jonathan Grimes at running back. Yes, he comes from the HOU practice squad and will probably suck as much as Greene and Powell but we don't know that for sure yet. Or maybe Lex Hilliard who just signed.

2. Start Tebow and just let him run it every play. The wins won't likely come but at least the media finally gets what they want.

This will be an interesting week to see how the Jets respond. They are 2-2. But they look like they may be 2-14 at the end.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 31 19 28 25 6
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 2 14 2 6 3 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ @NE 20000023011 ***
Darnold has five TDs and three metric boatloads of yards in the last two games -- OK, it's more like 594 yards, but who is counting? The rookie has games of 24.2 and 29.5 fantasy points to his credit in that short span. Facing New England in Foxborough is something he hasn't done. In fact, facing the Patriots at all is new to him after missing the first meeting with an injury. Darnold is best left out of lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ @NE 5003300000 ***
McGuire has scored in three straight games, and he had two TDs last week vs. Green Bay. The second-year back is auditioning for a larger role in 2019 and faces a Pats team in New England that has slipped a bit in the last six weeks vs. RBs. LeSean McCoy was dominated last week, and McGuire is not a much better play in any setting -- he wasn't a factor in the earlier meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, NYJ @NE 005701000 **
He hasn't scored in his last three games against the Eagles. Crowder has been good for at least 12.8 PPR points in two of the last three games. Philadelphia has given up only four TDs in the last five weeks but 74 receptions for nearly 1,000 yards, so Crowder has a chance at relevance.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @NE 003400000 ***
Anderson has scored in three straight games but was held to a 2-22-0 day against the Pats in Week 12. He has been too involved of late to ignore, seeing 24 targets in the last two games alone. Last year, in Week 17, at the Pats, he was held to just one catch for two yards. New England will try to cancel him out and force the passing game to go elsewhere. Keep your expectations in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ @NE 006601000 **
Herndon broke a six-game scoreless snap with a TD vs. Green Bay last week. He has been erratically used in 2018, and the rookie is tough to play, but he was granted seven receptions for 57 yards in the earlier meeting with the Pats. They will likely allow it again as New England is happy to give up dinking and dunking underneath.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ @NE 3311 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

a d v e r t i s e m e n t