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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: MIA 20, CIN 27 (Line: CIN by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Brain Hartline

The 1-3 Dolphins are on a two game losing streak though they gave the Cardinals all they could handle last week. The 3-1 Bengals have been on a roll since the season opening loss in Baltimore. Once again, the Bengals are playing better than we expected and the Dolphins are good but not good enough.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN ----- 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 220,1
RB Arian Foster 110,2 6-40
TE Jordan Cameron 3-20

Pregame Notes: Losing the last two games by just three points means the Dolphins are improving but are limited by their defense that has allowed 23 points or more in three games this year. This is not a "catch up" sort of offense despite Ryan Tannehill throwing for 431 yards in Arizona. His previous best was only 219 yards and he still only managed to score once. So far Tannehill has two touchdowns against six interceptions but at least is gaining yardage in chunks with the wide receivers.

Reggie Bush was active last week and gained 67 yards on 17 runs in Arizona. But he was never used as a receiver and was not overused in his first game since the knee sprain. He left the game without any issues and should be 100% this week. Not only are both Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas splitting the relief work, but the Fins allowed Jorvorskie Lane to punch in the short touchdown for the second week in a row. Hopefully that goes away with Bush healthy again.

No matter that there were 431 pass yards in Arizona, Anthony Fasano still is held to fewer than 50 yards every week and has not fantasy merit.

The big story last week was Brian Hartline being thrown 19 passes for 12 catches and 253 yards including the 80-yard touchdown. That makes two of the last three weeks that Hartline ended with nine carries or more. And the problem is that he sandwiched those monster games with a one catch effort against the Jets. Opponents can game plan Hartline away but if they do not he has made them pay. Davone Bess also caught seven passes for 123 yards in that game but Hartline's 80-yard score has been the only touchdown by any wideout this year. That's two games by Hartline and one by Bess that were impressive and nothing else in four weeks. Cover the two and not much is going to happen. For that matter, cover Hartline and take your chances. This offense only has two passing touchdowns this year. What Hartline can do this week will help define the Miami passing game.

The Bengals are weaker on defense than most 3-1 teams but facing CLE, WAS and JAC has helped. All teams have thrown at least one score on them and most have at least some rushing success against them as well. But the passing is not going to be good enough here to get the win.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 26 3 21 27 27 16
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 24 26 9 24 17 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA @CIN 0000031022 ***
There is some bad that has to be accepted with Tannehill's good, and this week should be no different. Cincinnati has permitted the five most fantasy points to quarterbacks, mainly because of the nine touchdowns allowed in three games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA @CIN 4002100000 ***
Drake is the de facto starter after Arian Foster went down. The rookie is explosive in the open field be needs to run with more patience to make the most of his touches -- carries that are shared with Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams. Cincy has yielded 21.5 PPR points to RBs, but only one back has run into the end zone with a football in his hands.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA @CIN 2002200000 ***
Ajayi was on the field for 27 percent of the snaps in Week 3, with Isaiah Pead seeing 18 and Damien Williams seeing 16 behind Kenyan Drake's 40. The Bengals offer a midrange matchup, so this could go either way. Safely, Ajayi doesn't figure see the field enough to justify a non-DFS play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @CIN 0081001000 ***
Landry is an obvious PPR play every week and has another fine matchup on his hands. He is listed as questionable with a shoulder, but all signs point to him playing. The Dolphins have given up the third most touchdown grabs to the position, ultimately registering as the 11th most generous matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA @CIN 005801000 ***
When he's on the field, Parker is dynamite. The second-year receiver is a dangerous weapon who has a knack for finding the end zone. Toss him into all lineups this week against the 11th easiest WR matchup in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA @CIN 003500000 ***
The matchup is right (11th easiest) if you want to take a DFS flier or need to fill a hole because of a bye week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dion Sims, MIA @CIN 002300000 ***
Sims should be the starting tight end with Jordan Cameron banged up, but that's not enough to warrant a fantasy play. Furthermore, he's questionable, even though Sims practiced in full. Cincy has given up three touchdowns on only nine catches, so take the chance if you're feeling lucky.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA @CIN 2222 ***
Franks has only four attempts on the year (27th) and faces a top-12 unit against fantasy feet.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA ----- 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE ----- 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT ----- 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 10 300,3
WR A.J. Green 7-120,2
WR Brandon LaFell 3-40
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bengals finish three road games in the first four weeks with a 3-1 record but the schedule is not getting much better anytime soon. The defense has been a problem most weeks but at least Andy Dalton has been able to produce three scores each week and remain ahead on the scoreboard. He has thrown for over 300 yards twice and rushed in a touchdown last week in Jacksonville.

The rushing game here remains just as lackluster as it was with Cedric Benson. BenJarvus Green-Ellis rarely has a role as a receiver and he has only gained 286 yards on 82 runs. That's a 3.5 yard per carry average and a moderate fantasy output every week. He's not winning anyone games but he is not why you lose either. Just like Benson before him, the Bengals have an average run game that just lacks any sparks or big performances. Green-Ellis gets almost all the action here. It just never matters that much.

Jermaine Gresham is the tight end version of Green-Ellis. He has one score, he always has at least 30 yards but never more than 64. Middle of the road for a tight end and worthy only of filling in for a bye week player.

Dalton continues to ignite an improving set of receivers. A.J. Green scored in each of the last three games and has been good for six or seven catches per week. The last two weeks produced 183 yards against the Redskins and 117 yards in Jacksonville. He is a strong play and currently the #1 wideout in most fantasy leagues. But he is not alone. Armon Binns scored once and was catching about four passes per game until being blanked last week. Andrew Hawkins is making the slot mean something. He has two touchdowns on the year and produces 50 or 60 yards in almost every game. He adds a dangerous element that can break a long gainer on any play.

This offense has a decent rushing game that supports a good passer in Dalton. Green is the #1 fantasy wideout because teams cannot devote too much against him without paying a price from the other receivers. This week they go against a Miami defense that has allowed over 300 passing yards to the last three opponents and all teams score at least once against them via the pass. The rushing defense is actually top notch and going against a mediocre run offense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 1 21 12 15
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 20 15 27 15 24 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN MIA 20000026020 ***
Quarterbacks have been efficient against Miami, which is what you can expect out of Dalton. Quarterbacks have thrown only one interception to four touchdown passes. Dalton is a viable bye-week replacement for Aaron Rodgers owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN MIA 8011100000 ***
Hill is touchdown-reliant, as you probably know by know ... Miami has yielded only one rushing touchdown on 87 attempts, which is the highest ratio of any team. Play Hill as a risky flex.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN MIA 3005300000 ***
On the Saints have allowed more rushing yards than Miami, but the Dolphins have not been broken by backs. The position has scored only one offensive touchdown, and Miami has held receiving backs to a mere 68 yards. Bernard is on the upswing but may have a regression game ahead. Play him and bear this in mind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN MIA 0091202000 ***
Green could go off against the Miami defense. This unit has permitted the sixth most fantasy points per game to the position, which stems from a 47-575-3 line in three games. Start him with confidence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN MIA 005600000 ***
Boyd's playing time fell from 79 percent in Week 2 to 36 percent last weekend. Watch how this one plays out with him on your bench. The Dolphins offer a good matchup, so it's a shame he isn't being targeted enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN MIA 004500000 ***
LaFell benefits from the attention drawn by A.J. Green, and this matchup is a prime place to deploy him in DFS action or as a flex in regular PPR leagues. Miami has allowed the third most receptions to WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE C.J. Uzomah, CIN MIA 003300000 ***
Avoid any Bengals tight end not named Tyler Eifert (who isn't expected to play, by the way). Miami has allowed only one TE TD in three games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN MIA 1133 ***
Miami's strong ranking against kickers is somewhat lucky. They have allowed the second most field goal attempts but only six of the 10 have split the uprights. Nugent is a low-end PK1 choice but comes with some risk if Cincinnati's offense doesn't have a problem scoring touchdowns.

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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