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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: PHI 17, PIT 23 (Line: PIT by 3)

Players to Watch: Rashard Mendenhall

The 3-1 Eagles are all alone on top of the NFC East thanks to all three being by two points or less. The 1-2 Steelers come off their bye having last been upset by the Raiders and have been stewing about their losing record. This battle of Pennsylvania means much more to the Steelers than the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT ----- 14 @TB -----
6 DET ----- 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL ----- 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 40 240,2
RB Bryce Brown 10
RB LeSean McCoy 80 4-20
WR Jason Avant 2-20
WR DeSean Jackson 5-80,1
WR Jeremy Maclin 3-40
TE Brent Celek 6-60,1
PK Alex Henery 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Eagles come off a win over the Giants where Michael Vick did not lose a fumble. He did not throw an interception. Actually he only threw one score and 241 yards with a season high 49 rushing yards. Not making mistakes helps the efforts but the Eagles seem destined to play in tight games every week regardless. What will be interesting this week is that Vick has scored at least once in every game - except for the one road match-up in Arizona.

LeSean McCoy finally comes off a big effort when he gained 123 rush yards and added 17 more as a receiver but he still has just one touchdown on the season after rushing in 17 in 2011. And his worst effort was when he only produced 78 total yards in the only road game of the year. McCoy's rushing yardage is not that much off, but he is not scoring and is not turning in much as a receiver this season. He still has nearly no competition for running back touches and yet has been unable to rekindle the success of last year. McCoy had some swelling in his knee after the Giants game but is not expected to miss any time.

Brent Celek may be one reason why McCoy has less presence as a receiver. Celek has not scored but has been very consistent with yardage and catches. That's more of a very low-end fantasy starter without the touchdowns but he continues to be factor in each game at least for first downs.

Jeremy Maclin is past his hip injury though he was a nonfactor last week in his first game back. Maclin scored in each of the first two weeks before the injury and has been the main receiver for Vick in the past. This week is not likely to offer too much with the trip to Pittsburgh. DeSean Jackson has stepped up and scored last week for the first time this year and he has been a solid fantasy starter every week except one... the road game in Arizona. Jason Avant is a nonfactor and that is not going to change.

The Eagles have done well winning close games and in fairness have played a slate of good defenses. That is not going to change this week with their trip to Pittsburgh where the Steelers have been waiting for two weeks to play this game. The Steelers secondary has been a bit softer this year than most but they continue to be very strong against the run. This will be yet another big challenge for the Eagles who have no idea what a big win or a close loss is like.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 14 24 16 7 20 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 11 5 14 23 6 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, PHI @NYG 30100026012 ***
Nick Foles heads to IR with a broken hand, putting Vick back in the driver's seat. He threw for 241 and 1 in the earlier meeting with the Giants, mixing in 49 rushing yards as well; look for him to build on those numbers in this audition for whatever team he'll be quarterbacking in 2013. And since Vick is most impressive when running the ball, a rushing score wouldn't surprise this week--nor would a bigger yardage total, seeing as similarly mobile RG3 took the Giants for 161 yards in two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @NYG 9015300000 ***
McCoy's 122 combo yards last week certainly suggest he's back to full go, which is especially good news this week seeing as he rushed for 123 yards in the earlier meeting with the Giants. And considering New York allowed two 100-yard rushers last week alone, McCoy should be in line for another productive outing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @NYG 006701000 ***
DeSean Jackson inflicted the damage in the earlier meeting with the Giants while Maclin was held to one catch for seven yards, but DJax ain't around this time and Maclin has been Philly's go-to guy over the past month. Michael Vick knows where to find him as well, so expect Maclin to lead the charge in Philly's passing game this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jason Avant, PHI @NYG 004600000 ***
Avant has double-digit targets in two of the last three games, stepping up in the absence of DeSean Jackson. Jackson was Philly's go-to guy in the earlier meeting with the Giants, so if they focus on shutting down Jeremy Maclin again it could be a nice opportunity for Maclin. Even if Avant plays wingman, a date with a Giants' secondary that's allowed 20 WR TDs on the year and six wideouts to top 74 yards in the past month should provide reasonably lucrative.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Riley Cooper, PHI @NYG 002200000 ***
Cooper's contributions have been too inconsistent to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brent Celek, PHI @NYG 005500000 ***
Celek had a comfort level with Michael Vick earlier in the season, including 57 yards in the previous meeting with the Giants. Big Blue has allowed 170 yards and a TD to the position over the past three games, so Celek certainly feels in line for another solid yardage game with the possibility of a score.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Alex Henery, PHI @NYG 2133 ***
Henery has multiple field goals in two straight and five of the last six, and he booted a season-high four treys in the previous meeting with the Giants. New York has allowed multiple field goals in three straight, a total of eight in that span. So maybe Henery sends Andy Reid out not with a bang but with a bunch of field goals.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC -----
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL -----
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI ----- 14 SD -----
6 @TEN ----- 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN ----- 16 CIN -----
8 WAS ----- 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger 280,2
RB Jonathan Dwyer 20
RB Isaac Redman 4-20
WR Antonio Brown 4-60
WR Emmanuel Sanders 2-30
TE Heath Miller 4-40,1
PK Shaun Suisham 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Steelers come off their bye week with a 1-2 record and both losses came in road games. This week is at home but against the Eagles should prove far more competitive than the Jets were when they visited Pittsburgh in week two. The new offense is producing far better passing numbers as intended with Ben Roethlisberger posting eight touchdowns in just three games. He has never thrown for fewer than two scores and has so far been very healthy with the pass yardage. Big Ben only has one interception all year after throwing 120 passes.

The big news - if you are a member of the Mendenhall clan - is that Rashard is back this week and expected to start. Mendenhall has been rehabbing after the knee surgery in the offseason and will make his debut here. His first week will surely be one with limited work and it may take at least a few weeks for him to get back to where he was last year - a mediocre back who almost never had more than 65 rush yards per week and almost never caught the ball.

The difference now is that he has to learn a new offense and the team already has Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer in the mix. If Mendenhall does not get touchdown duty at the goal line - which is likely - then he will lose the only aspect that made him worthy of a fantasy start last season. This all bears watching but chances are high that this underperforming rushing offense is not going to improve much with Mendenhall returning from knee surgery.

Heath Miller has been a huge surprise so far with a score in every game and two touchdowns against the Raiders in week three. Miller has been incorporated into the passing scheme under new OC Todd Haley and become the main reason why the running backs are not scoring this year.

Mike Wallace has also scored in each game and usually turned in big yardage while doing it. Antonio Brown had the big payday and seemed likely to be the preferred target for Roethlisberger but he has just one touchdown so far. Brown is very consistent with 74+ yards every week though and is definitely a must start. Between the two wideouts and Miller, that's all Big Ben has needed.

This week the Steelers come off a bye week rested and prepared to face the Eagles who keep winning by one or two points as long as they are at home. The rushing effort here only gets more diced up with Mendenhall back and offers no reliable fantasy play this week and maybe any week. But Big Ben will get a good test against one of the better secondaries and he will be the one that wins or loses this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 4 22 4 5 19 30
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 5 6 16 4 19 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT CLE 0000025011 ****
Big Ben missed the last meeting with the Browns but has been only moderate with stats at best this year. The Browns on the road have been much less formidable against the pass and allowed five opponents to pass for more than 300 yards on them. This should be a healthy game for Big Ben if the weather holds up but with Miller and maybe Wallace out, a lesser effort than what could have been.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonathan Dwyer, PIT CLE 4011100000 **
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Emmanuel Sanders, PIT CLE 005701000 **
Sanders should see more work if Wallace cannot play and he already was the lead receiver in the previous matchup with the Browns. Too big of a risk to reply on this week but he has some upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT CLE 005500000 **
Brown did not play last time they faced the Browns but Wallace appears likely to sit out this week. Brown would match on Joe Haden this week which is likely to limit him. Brown has been on a three game scoring streak but this is a risky week to rely on him.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Shaun Suisham, PIT CLE 3222 ***
At home in the cold doesn't sound great nor does the chance for snow.

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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