FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: SEA 17, CAR 20 (Line: CAR by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Russell Wilson

The 2-2 Seahawks hit the road where they are 0-2 and have never scored more than one touchdown. The 1-3 Panthers are at home after nearly beating the Falcons last week. This could go in a number of ways but the Seahawks are sticking with Russell Wilson and the Panthers are at home with a far different sort of offense for the Seahawks to defend.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR ----- 14 ARI -----
6 NE ----- 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF ----- 16 SF -----
8 @DET ----- 17 STL -----
9 MIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 150,1
WR Doug Baldwin 1-10
WR Brandon Marshall 8-100,1
TE Ed Dickson 2-20

Pregame Notes: Russell Wilson is once again the subject of talk and HC Pete Carroll has said he is sticking with the rookie "for now". Wilson has been there for both of the Seahawks wins but it may be a stretch to say he had a lot to do with them. Wilson has not shown the running skills that were expected and his passing has been marginal at best.

After four weeks, Wilson has averaged only 149 passing yards per game with never more than 160 yards or less than 130 yards. He has four touchdowns and four interceptions. On the plus side he is easy to predict. On the negative - that is Blaine Gabbert numbers. That is worse than Blaine Gabbert which as of last year we did not think could survive as a starting quarterback. But it does. For now.

Matt Flynn could get the call if Seattle loses more games and Russell just chugs along with his 150-1 no matter what is happening in the game. With NE and @SF up next, Flynn might just grab a helmet in the near future. The Pats and 49ers are not going to allow the run to control the game.

The minimal passing stats obviously strips all fantasy value from the receivers and truly the only single passing play of any consequence after four weeks was when Golden Tate caught M.D. Jennings who was holding the ball in the end zone at the end of the Packers games. Otherwise no receiver has more than 43 yards in any game.

Marshawn Lynch has largely carried the team to two victories and has never failed to gain at least 85 yards as a runner. He almost never catches the ball though and has only two touchdowns on the year. Robert Turbin ended up with six runs in St. Louis and gained 45 yards but this still remains not only Lynch's offense but Lynch's team.

It seems a dream match-up for Lynch to face the #32 defense against running backs and indeed it should be a profitable day but realize too that the Panthers gave up yards to runners who were a part of big time passers like Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. And only two runners have actually scored a rushing touchdowns on them. The yardage should be there since four runners turned in 95+ yards but do not underestimate the effect of a team being on the road with no passing game to fear.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 32 19 31 25 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 22 32 5 17 32 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @CHI 20000025021 ***
No Doug Baldwin and a suspect offensive line against that new-look Chicago front seven screams "run" for fantasy owners of Wilson. Look at other options and play him only if you must, because, after all, Aaron Rodgers showed they can be had.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Carson, SEA @CHI 5003200000 ***
Chicago finished Week 1 as the third-best run defense in fantasy, but that is a little deceiving since Green Bay passed all over the field in the second half and sports one of the weakest rushing attacks in football. Carson has a little bit of potential but is a risky play in a split backfield.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA @CHI 2004200000 ***
The rookie is still finding his footing after missing a huge, important chunk of the offseason program. He's sharing the backfield with a similar back behind a suspect O-line. Green Bay RBs managed just 75 total yards on 19 touches vs. Chicago.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @CHI 005801000 ***
Chicago gave up 19 catches (tied for 3rd most), 299 yards (second most) and three TDs to receivers (T-3) last week. Almost all of it came in the second half when Aaron Rodgers went bananas. Lockett's projection could go either way, but he still belongs in most lineups given the increased chances and appealing matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, SEA @CHI 003401000 ***
Brown should see more work with Doug Baldwin out, but taking a shot on him is probably unnecessary at this stage of the season. He may be a worthwhile flier in DFS. Chicago was punished by Aaron Rodgers, but mostly in his unlikely second-half comeback fury.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, SEA @CHI 005600000 ***
Marshall has PPR appeal, and if he's lucky, perhaps he could sneak into the end zone. The Bears gave up 19 catches to Green Bay WRs last week, going for 299 yards (second most), and a pair of scores.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Dissly, SEA @CHI 002200000 **
The rookie enjoyed a fine first game as a pro. He has a touch of appeal for gamers who may have lost Delanie Walker or Greg Olsen. Dissly will have ups-and-downs -- mostly downs -- and isn't an ideal replacement.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, SEA @CHI 2222 ***
Seabass made all three of his XPAs but only one of the two field goal attempts in Week 1. He faces a Chicago team that was in the middle of the league vs. PKs but gave up 11 points (T5) in Week 1.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN -----
2 NO 35-27 11 TB -----
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI -----
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA ----- 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL ----- 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI ----- 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 60,1 220,1
WR Torrey Smith 5-80,1
TE Greg Olsen 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: Losing to the Falcons was a tough one since the Panthers were ahead in the game until the final seconds and gave up a field goal only after Cam Newton fumbled on third down and forced a punt. There was plenty of other factors in play as well (ie. 59-yard completion to Roddy White with 59 seconds left to play). But Newton already was taking the Giants loss hard and once again had to deal with the emotional realities of being a quarterback.

The reason the Panthers were in the game against a very tough opponent in their stadium was because Newton rushed for 86 yards and a score and passed for 215 yards and two more touchdowns. That only gives Newton four touchdowns on the season against five interceptions but he has three running scores as well. Newton has been passing for solid yardage every week but he has yet to have a truly big passing day.

The rushing game chugs along unchecked. Jonathan Stewart was back from his toe injury and had no setbacks while gaining 40 yards on ten carries. He and DeAngelo Williams split the carries so neatly that they almost mirror each other in yardage. Unfortunately, that ends up to be a decent game divided by two which equals not a decent game.

Greg Olsen is still the one to watch in the receiving offense. He has about 90 yards in each of the last two weeks and scored in Atlanta for the first time this season. No other receiver has that sort of production. Steve Smith still has not scored this year and since opening with two 100+ yard efforts, he has declined to only 52 yards on three receptions in Atlanta. Brandon LaFell was held to no catches and Kealoha Pilares scored a 36-yard touchdown because defenders thought he was there for the Hawaiian theme half-time show. Ends up he is a second-year wide receiver now with two career catches. The passing game has been off in recent weeks while the Panthers have faced two good defenses.

The Seahawks have been outstanding - #1 even - against quarterbacks though they have not yet faced one that can run. The Seattle rushing defense has been great too but that was facing Beanie Wells, a visiting Demarco Murray who only had 12 carries, Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson nursing a sore groin. This game works out better for the Panthers than it may seem.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 5 20 24 18 32 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 1 9 13 5 10 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cam Newton, CAR @ATL 50100019001 ***
Cam was good for 19.9 fantasy points last week thanks to his legs. He finished with only 161 yards passing and no TD strikes but added 58 ground gains and a score. Last year, he was good for 21.5 on a similar statistical path in Week 9 and 18.9 in the latter road meeting. Atlanta is down arguably its two best defensive players in LB Deion Jones and SS Keanu Neal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR @ATL 6017500000 ***
Atlanta gave up the most receptions to RBs last year and are now down two of their best defenders in Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. McCaffrey went for 20.4 PPR points in the first matchup last year and only 10.4 in a limited role during the season finale.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB C.J. Anderson, CAR @ATL 300000000 ***
The Falcons were stout against running back touchdowns last year, ranking as the fourth-worst matchup in that area. This was the sixth-worst opponent in terms of 2017 rushing yards allowed to the position. In Week 1, Atlanta was pushed around by Philly backs, giving up two TDs to Jay Ajayi and also came out of the game short MLB Deion Jones and SS Keanu Neal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devin Funchess, CAR @ATL 005500000 ***
Funchess wasn't too shabby in PPR last year vs. Atlanta. He went for 13.6 and 12.8 in the two games. This time around, the Falcons will be short SS Keanu Neal and MLB Deion Jones -- both losses are a tremendous help for Funchess. So is Carolina losing Greg Olsen. It opens looks over the middle for Funchess.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, CAR @ATL 003400000 ***
Wright showed up on the stats sheet last week but presents no recommendable fantasy utility. Even the loss of Greg Olsen really doesn't make enough of a difference for Wright to be on your radar.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, CAR @ATL 002300000 ***
Atlanta has some injuries that should impact short-area passing in Carolina's favor but nothing that suggests the wildly inconsistent Smith can shake loose for big plays. He is, as always, nothing but a shot in the dark.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Ian Thomas, CAR @ATL 003200000 ***
Fourth-round rookies usually don't start, and rookie TEs rarely contribute meaningfully anyway, but Thomas will have a shot at it with Greg Olsen's injury. Don't trust Thomas in Week 2.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Graham Gano, CAR @ATL 2211 ***
Atlanta gave up a moderate five fantasy points in Week 1 to kickers, and Gano averaged six points in his two meetings last year with the Falcons. Game flow and field position should ultimately dictate his fantasy returns.

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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