FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: SEA 17, CAR 20 (Line: CAR by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Russell Wilson

The 2-2 Seahawks hit the road where they are 0-2 and have never scored more than one touchdown. The 1-3 Panthers are at home after nearly beating the Falcons last week. This could go in a number of ways but the Seahawks are sticking with Russell Wilson and the Panthers are at home with a far different sort of offense for the Seahawks to defend.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR ----- 14 ARI -----
6 NE ----- 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF ----- 16 SF -----
8 @DET ----- 17 STL -----
9 MIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 150,1
WR Doug Baldwin 1-10
TE Ed Dickson 2-20

Pregame Notes: Russell Wilson is once again the subject of talk and HC Pete Carroll has said he is sticking with the rookie "for now". Wilson has been there for both of the Seahawks wins but it may be a stretch to say he had a lot to do with them. Wilson has not shown the running skills that were expected and his passing has been marginal at best.

After four weeks, Wilson has averaged only 149 passing yards per game with never more than 160 yards or less than 130 yards. He has four touchdowns and four interceptions. On the plus side he is easy to predict. On the negative - that is Blaine Gabbert numbers. That is worse than Blaine Gabbert which as of last year we did not think could survive as a starting quarterback. But it does. For now.

Matt Flynn could get the call if Seattle loses more games and Russell just chugs along with his 150-1 no matter what is happening in the game. With NE and @SF up next, Flynn might just grab a helmet in the near future. The Pats and 49ers are not going to allow the run to control the game.

The minimal passing stats obviously strips all fantasy value from the receivers and truly the only single passing play of any consequence after four weeks was when Golden Tate caught M.D. Jennings who was holding the ball in the end zone at the end of the Packers games. Otherwise no receiver has more than 43 yards in any game.

Marshawn Lynch has largely carried the team to two victories and has never failed to gain at least 85 yards as a runner. He almost never catches the ball though and has only two touchdowns on the year. Robert Turbin ended up with six runs in St. Louis and gained 45 yards but this still remains not only Lynch's offense but Lynch's team.

It seems a dream match-up for Lynch to face the #32 defense against running backs and indeed it should be a profitable day but realize too that the Panthers gave up yards to runners who were a part of big time passers like Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. And only two runners have actually scored a rushing touchdowns on them. The yardage should be there since four runners turned in 95+ yards but do not underestimate the effect of a team being on the road with no passing game to fear.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 32 19 31 25 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 22 32 5 17 32 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA GB 40000025020 ***
While the yardage wasn't there last week, Wilson managed to toss three TDs for the fourth time in the past five games. He ran for 92 yards against the Rams and posted his best fantasy day of the year (30 points). Green Bay has shown a few cracks in the armor but still remains among the stronger defenses of the position. Some of it is smoke and mirrors, and this group will be put to the test in Wilson's backyard on a short week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Carson, SEA GB 8011100000 **
Carson (hip) was removed from the injury report and is expected to be a full-go in Week 11. The Packers have allowed seven rushing TDs in the last nine games, but the yardage has been moderate, and now the question is how many touches will Rashaad Penny claim after last week's 100-yard day. Be careful.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA GB 4012200000 *
It stands to reason Penny will have a much larger role even with Chris Carson back in the mix. Trusting Penny is taking a sizeable leap of faith. The Packers have been among the stronger teams in the league at limiting RBs, and Penny isn't much of a receiving threat.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Davis, SEA GB 3004300000 ***
Davis can be stashed for one week to make sure Chris Carson's hip doesn't flare up. Keep him in reserve this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA GB 003601000 ***
One of fantasy's most pleasant surprises in 2018, Lockett returned to the end zone after a one-game absence. He doesn't offer a ton of worth without finding paydirt, so keep that in mind if you're looking at safety over upside. Green Bay has given up five scores in the last four weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, SEA GB 001101000 ***
Brown and David Moore are mostly interchangeable at this point. The former has scored in three straight outings spread over the course of the season. With a scare role in the target game, Brown doesn't belong in lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA GB 004600000 ***
Once a TD machine, Baldwin has yet to score in 2018 and remains mostly ineffective in the yardage department. Green Bay has been mostly solid against receivers since giving up six TDs in the opening three games. This secondary can give up points as it feels its way through injuries and inexperience. The hosting Seahawks have become reliant on the ground game to Baldwin's detriment.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Nick Vannett, SEA GB 003400000 ***
Vannett has proven to be a sneaky play the last few games. Don't be so cavalier this week. The Packers have been brutal against the position the entire year, allowing exactly zero touchdowns over 34 receptions. Only three teams have been stronger overall in PPR.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, SEA GB 1144 ***
No writeup available

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN -----
2 NO 35-27 11 TB -----
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI -----
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA ----- 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL ----- 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI ----- 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 60,1 220,1
WR Torrey Smith 5-80,1
TE Greg Olsen 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: Losing to the Falcons was a tough one since the Panthers were ahead in the game until the final seconds and gave up a field goal only after Cam Newton fumbled on third down and forced a punt. There was plenty of other factors in play as well (ie. 59-yard completion to Roddy White with 59 seconds left to play). But Newton already was taking the Giants loss hard and once again had to deal with the emotional realities of being a quarterback.

The reason the Panthers were in the game against a very tough opponent in their stadium was because Newton rushed for 86 yards and a score and passed for 215 yards and two more touchdowns. That only gives Newton four touchdowns on the season against five interceptions but he has three running scores as well. Newton has been passing for solid yardage every week but he has yet to have a truly big passing day.

The rushing game chugs along unchecked. Jonathan Stewart was back from his toe injury and had no setbacks while gaining 40 yards on ten carries. He and DeAngelo Williams split the carries so neatly that they almost mirror each other in yardage. Unfortunately, that ends up to be a decent game divided by two which equals not a decent game.

Greg Olsen is still the one to watch in the receiving offense. He has about 90 yards in each of the last two weeks and scored in Atlanta for the first time this season. No other receiver has that sort of production. Steve Smith still has not scored this year and since opening with two 100+ yard efforts, he has declined to only 52 yards on three receptions in Atlanta. Brandon LaFell was held to no catches and Kealoha Pilares scored a 36-yard touchdown because defenders thought he was there for the Hawaiian theme half-time show. Ends up he is a second-year wide receiver now with two career catches. The passing game has been off in recent weeks while the Panthers have faced two good defenses.

The Seahawks have been outstanding - #1 even - against quarterbacks though they have not yet faced one that can run. The Seattle rushing defense has been great too but that was facing Beanie Wells, a visiting Demarco Murray who only had 12 carries, Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson nursing a sore groin. This game works out better for the Panthers than it may seem.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 5 20 24 18 32 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 1 9 13 5 10 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cam Newton, CAR @DET 40000025020 ***
It depends on which version of the Lions shows up and whether CB Darius Slay is ready to return to action, but this defense has been almost perfectly average over the course of 2018 vs. QBs. In recent weeks, it is a slightly positive matchup. Mitchell Trubisky, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson each enjoyed strong days in the last five games facing this unit, so there's little reason to doubt Cam is capable of following in their footsteps.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR @DET 6015600000 ***
Detroit is one of five teams that has allowed more than 1,100 rushing yards this year, and this defense has surrendered a touchdown per game between rushing and receiving scores. McCaffrey faces the eighth-friendliest opponent for rushing TD efficiency over the past five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devin Funchess, CAR @DET 004601000 **
Failing to find the end zone over the past three games, Funchess has struggled to receive targets with only 13 total in those games after 11 in Week 7 alone. Detroit has given up six WR touchdowns in the same three contests, including a pair of 120-plus-yard performances vs. Chicago last week without star CB Darius Slay in the lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DJ Moore, CAR @DET 1004400000 ***
The rookie has flex appeal based on Detroit's recent string of poor performances. This defense has yielded the seventh-fewest catches per game and highest frequency of touchdowns since Week 5. The yardage against is neutral.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Curtis Samuel, CAR @DET 1003400000 ***
Samuel is a flier play pretty much any week, but if you're going to chance it, this could be a wise time to try. The Lions have been atrocious at giving up touchdowns in the last five weeks, ranking as the most feeble defense in this area. Even still, due to limited involvement, Samuel is merely a flex.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Greg Olsen, CAR @DET 004501000 ***
Detroit has permitted 15 tight end catches since Week 5, allowing one to travel into the end zone. The Lions came out of their Week 6 bye with a renewed focus on the position, although the competition has been so-so. Olsen is a lineup fixture in any conventional format.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Graham Gano, CAR @DET 2233 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

a d v e r t i s e m e n t