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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: SEA 17, CAR 20 (Line: CAR by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Russell Wilson

The 2-2 Seahawks hit the road where they are 0-2 and have never scored more than one touchdown. The 1-3 Panthers are at home after nearly beating the Falcons last week. This could go in a number of ways but the Seahawks are sticking with Russell Wilson and the Panthers are at home with a far different sort of offense for the Seahawks to defend.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR ----- 14 ARI -----
6 NE ----- 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF ----- 16 SF -----
8 @DET ----- 17 STL -----
9 MIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 150,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 120,1 3-20
WR Doug Baldwin 1-10
WR Percy Harvin 20 7-80,1
WR Sidney Rice 3-40,1
WR Golden Tate 2-30
TE Zach Miller 3-30
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Russell Wilson is once again the subject of talk and HC Pete Carroll has said he is sticking with the rookie "for now". Wilson has been there for both of the Seahawks wins but it may be a stretch to say he had a lot to do with them. Wilson has not shown the running skills that were expected and his passing has been marginal at best.

After four weeks, Wilson has averaged only 149 passing yards per game with never more than 160 yards or less than 130 yards. He has four touchdowns and four interceptions. On the plus side he is easy to predict. On the negative - that is Blaine Gabbert numbers. That is worse than Blaine Gabbert which as of last year we did not think could survive as a starting quarterback. But it does. For now.

Matt Flynn could get the call if Seattle loses more games and Russell just chugs along with his 150-1 no matter what is happening in the game. With NE and @SF up next, Flynn might just grab a helmet in the near future. The Pats and 49ers are not going to allow the run to control the game.

The minimal passing stats obviously strips all fantasy value from the receivers and truly the only single passing play of any consequence after four weeks was when Golden Tate caught M.D. Jennings who was holding the ball in the end zone at the end of the Packers games. Otherwise no receiver has more than 43 yards in any game.

Marshawn Lynch has largely carried the team to two victories and has never failed to gain at least 85 yards as a runner. He almost never catches the ball though and has only two touchdowns on the year. Robert Turbin ended up with six runs in St. Louis and gained 45 yards but this still remains not only Lynch's offense but Lynch's team.

It seems a dream match-up for Lynch to face the #32 defense against running backs and indeed it should be a profitable day but realize too that the Panthers gave up yards to runners who were a part of big time passers like Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. And only two runners have actually scored a rushing touchdowns on them. The yardage should be there since four runners turned in 95+ yards but do not underestimate the effect of a team being on the road with no passing game to fear.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 32 19 31 25 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 22 32 5 17 32 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA STL 30000020011 ****
Wilson only passed for 160 yards and no scores in St. Louis for his worst fantasy game of the year. The Seahawks just want to win this and then not get anyone hurt so figure on Wilson only as an average play this week and really any week. He had four scores last week but only 171 yards. He ran for three touchdown in Buffalo but he had never scored on the ground before and only passed for 205 and one score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brady Quinn, SEA STL 0000018002 ***
Quinn has been shut out in four of his five starts, including 126 and zero against the Broncos. And you want to play him here why?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA STL 12011100000 ****
Lynch already ran for 20-118 and one score in St. Louis and he's on a four game scoring streak currently. They gave him 26 runs last week versus the 49ers and are resting him in practices. Lynch is an obvious safe start this week but if the Seahawks get a big lead, they'll be more inclined to rest Lynch.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sidney Rice, SEA STL 004500000 ****
Rice is the preferred target for Wilson but is still banged up and only posted 4-41 in the last meeting with the Rams. Not a great start this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, SEA STL 004400000 ***
Tate is far too inconsistent to merit any fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, SEA STL 003301000 **
Miller scored in two of the last three and the Rams are good against wideouts. It makes Miller a little more interesting for a TD but his yardage is never much anyway.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA STL 2233 ***
Hauschka has been golden in recent home games.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN -----
2 NO 35-27 11 TB -----
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI -----
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA ----- 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL ----- 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI ----- 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 60,1 220,1
RB Jonathan Stewart 30 3-20
RB DeAngelo Williams 40 2-10
WR Domenik Hixon 6-80,1
WR Brandon LaFell 3-40
WR Steve Smith 5-60
TE Greg Olsen 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: Losing to the Falcons was a tough one since the Panthers were ahead in the game until the final seconds and gave up a field goal only after Cam Newton fumbled on third down and forced a punt. There was plenty of other factors in play as well (ie. 59-yard completion to Roddy White with 59 seconds left to play). But Newton already was taking the Giants loss hard and once again had to deal with the emotional realities of being a quarterback.

The reason the Panthers were in the game against a very tough opponent in their stadium was because Newton rushed for 86 yards and a score and passed for 215 yards and two more touchdowns. That only gives Newton four touchdowns on the season against five interceptions but he has three running scores as well. Newton has been passing for solid yardage every week but he has yet to have a truly big passing day.

The rushing game chugs along unchecked. Jonathan Stewart was back from his toe injury and had no setbacks while gaining 40 yards on ten carries. He and DeAngelo Williams split the carries so neatly that they almost mirror each other in yardage. Unfortunately, that ends up to be a decent game divided by two which equals not a decent game.

Greg Olsen is still the one to watch in the receiving offense. He has about 90 yards in each of the last two weeks and scored in Atlanta for the first time this season. No other receiver has that sort of production. Steve Smith still has not scored this year and since opening with two 100+ yard efforts, he has declined to only 52 yards on three receptions in Atlanta. Brandon LaFell was held to no catches and Kealoha Pilares scored a 36-yard touchdown because defenders thought he was there for the Hawaiian theme half-time show. Ends up he is a second-year wide receiver now with two career catches. The passing game has been off in recent weeks while the Panthers have faced two good defenses.

The Seahawks have been outstanding - #1 even - against quarterbacks though they have not yet faced one that can run. The Seattle rushing defense has been great too but that was facing Beanie Wells, a visiting Demarco Murray who only had 12 carries, Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson nursing a sore groin. This game works out better for the Panthers than it may seem.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 5 20 24 18 32 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 1 9 13 5 10 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cam Newton, CAR @NO 50100026011 ****
Newton already threw for 253 yards and one score and rushed for 71 yards and another TD in the week two meeting. But the Saints at home, later in the year, are playing much better and the last two visitors combined for only one passing TD. The Saints have a score to settle and this is on the road for Newton. Expect no more than that first game and most likely less.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR @NO 6001100000 ***
Williams will probably share with a returning Stewart this week anyway and even without him around has been only mediocre anyway. Add in the Saints playing against the run well at home and Williams is a marginal play this week at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR @NO 3002200000 ***
Stewart has been out since week 12 but is hoped to play this week and therefore ruin whatever DeAngelo Williams might have done. The Saintsa at home defend the run well and have not allowed any runner to score there since week five.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Steve Smith, CAR @NO 006901000 *****
Smith is ending the year on a nice note - the last four games featured either 100 yards or a TD. He gained 104 yards in the first meeting and should be a lock for at least decent yardage with a good shot at a TD.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Domenik Hixon, CAR @NO 004601000 ***
Not only did Hixon score last week, in the earlier meeting with Philly he paced the Giants with 114 yards. With Victor Cruz scuffling a bit of late, Hixon might be a sneaky fantasy play in this must-win tilt for the G-Men.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CAR @NO 005800000 ****
LaFell turned in 6-90 in the first meeting back in week two but has never had as many catches in any other game. LaFell also rarely every scores in a road game but the Saints should get a lead and force the pass so LaFell becomes a very low end flex play in a PPR league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Greg Olsen, CAR @NO 006700000 ****
Olsen has been a solid play for around 50 yards or so for the last couple of months with the odd TD. He was held to only 1-13 in the first meeting but should end up better in this game as the Panthers #2 receiver.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Graham Gano, CAR @NO 3322 ****
The Saints defense at home is better at preventing TDs than FGs. Gano is a decent play this week but could be a problem if NO gets a big lead and CAR opts to skip FG attempts.

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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