FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: SEA 17, CAR 20 (Line: CAR by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Russell Wilson

The 2-2 Seahawks hit the road where they are 0-2 and have never scored more than one touchdown. The 1-3 Panthers are at home after nearly beating the Falcons last week. This could go in a number of ways but the Seahawks are sticking with Russell Wilson and the Panthers are at home with a far different sort of offense for the Seahawks to defend.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR ----- 14 ARI -----
6 NE ----- 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF ----- 16 SF -----
8 @DET ----- 17 STL -----
9 MIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 150,1
WR Doug Baldwin 1-10
TE Ed Dickson 2-20

Pregame Notes: Russell Wilson is once again the subject of talk and HC Pete Carroll has said he is sticking with the rookie "for now". Wilson has been there for both of the Seahawks wins but it may be a stretch to say he had a lot to do with them. Wilson has not shown the running skills that were expected and his passing has been marginal at best.

After four weeks, Wilson has averaged only 149 passing yards per game with never more than 160 yards or less than 130 yards. He has four touchdowns and four interceptions. On the plus side he is easy to predict. On the negative - that is Blaine Gabbert numbers. That is worse than Blaine Gabbert which as of last year we did not think could survive as a starting quarterback. But it does. For now.

Matt Flynn could get the call if Seattle loses more games and Russell just chugs along with his 150-1 no matter what is happening in the game. With NE and @SF up next, Flynn might just grab a helmet in the near future. The Pats and 49ers are not going to allow the run to control the game.

The minimal passing stats obviously strips all fantasy value from the receivers and truly the only single passing play of any consequence after four weeks was when Golden Tate caught M.D. Jennings who was holding the ball in the end zone at the end of the Packers games. Otherwise no receiver has more than 43 yards in any game.

Marshawn Lynch has largely carried the team to two victories and has never failed to gain at least 85 yards as a runner. He almost never catches the ball though and has only two touchdowns on the year. Robert Turbin ended up with six runs in St. Louis and gained 45 yards but this still remains not only Lynch's offense but Lynch's team.

It seems a dream match-up for Lynch to face the #32 defense against running backs and indeed it should be a profitable day but realize too that the Panthers gave up yards to runners who were a part of big time passers like Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. And only two runners have actually scored a rushing touchdowns on them. The yardage should be there since four runners turned in 95+ yards but do not underestimate the effect of a team being on the road with no passing game to fear.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 32 19 31 25 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 22 32 5 17 32 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA ARI 30000021020 ***
Seattle just has to win to avoid falling into the No. 6 spot, so it's really unclear how long Wilson will be asked to play. The general ideal is just long enough for the Seahawks to put the game at arm's length for Josh Rosen. The matchup, on paper, is not ideal but it has improved a good bit in recent weeks. Three of the last five games have resulted in fantasy passers with 21-plus points. Wilson went for just 10.7 in the Week 4 meeting. The bright spot may be Arizona has yielded four rushing TDs to QBs this year, which is tied for tops in the league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Carson, SEA ARI 10013200000 ***
Look for Seattle to play guys just long enough for the game to get out of hand for Arizona. Carson should be a great play once again, and he belongs in all lineups. He sat out the earlier meeting with the Cards, but this is one of the softest run defenses in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA ARI 5001100000 ***
Penny should return this week and could be a low-tier gamble in DFS. The Cardinals are awful vs. RBs, and he would see a lot of work if the game is lopsided early on. Seattle could rest Chris Carson later in the game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Davis, SEA ARI 200000000 ***
Davis will see a larger role if the game gets out of hand and Chris Carson is rested. Rashaad Penny is expected to return this week, so it comes down to how Seattle chooses to deploy the rookie in his first game since Week 14. With Carson out in the Week 4 trip to Arizona, Davis ran roughshod over the Cardinals. He finished with 101 yards and two touchdowns, adding four points in PPR to this total.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA ARI 005601000 ***
Baldwin has been a fantasy monster in the last two weeks, and he belongs in all conventional lineups, even with a tougher matchup. Banged up early in the year, Baldwin was good for just 41 yards on five catches in Week 4. He posted lines of 5-95-0 in Week 10 and 4-90-2 in Week 17 last year. Baldwin is a somewhat risky but worthwhile play in smaller DFS contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA ARI 003400000 ***
Lockett hasn't scored in three straight games, easily the longest drought of this season for him. He still managed to post 99 yards on four grabs last week and is mostly dependent on touchdowns. He finished with a five-catch, 53-yard day in the Week 4 trip to Arizona.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Nick Vannett, SEA ARI 001101000 *
Despite a quality matchup, Vannett is unplayable in all formats. Look for more volume and upside.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, SEA ARI 2244 ***
No writeup available

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN -----
2 NO 35-27 11 TB -----
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI -----
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA ----- 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL ----- 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI ----- 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 60,1 220,1
WR Torrey Smith 5-80,1
TE Greg Olsen 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: Losing to the Falcons was a tough one since the Panthers were ahead in the game until the final seconds and gave up a field goal only after Cam Newton fumbled on third down and forced a punt. There was plenty of other factors in play as well (ie. 59-yard completion to Roddy White with 59 seconds left to play). But Newton already was taking the Giants loss hard and once again had to deal with the emotional realities of being a quarterback.

The reason the Panthers were in the game against a very tough opponent in their stadium was because Newton rushed for 86 yards and a score and passed for 215 yards and two more touchdowns. That only gives Newton four touchdowns on the season against five interceptions but he has three running scores as well. Newton has been passing for solid yardage every week but he has yet to have a truly big passing day.

The rushing game chugs along unchecked. Jonathan Stewart was back from his toe injury and had no setbacks while gaining 40 yards on ten carries. He and DeAngelo Williams split the carries so neatly that they almost mirror each other in yardage. Unfortunately, that ends up to be a decent game divided by two which equals not a decent game.

Greg Olsen is still the one to watch in the receiving offense. He has about 90 yards in each of the last two weeks and scored in Atlanta for the first time this season. No other receiver has that sort of production. Steve Smith still has not scored this year and since opening with two 100+ yard efforts, he has declined to only 52 yards on three receptions in Atlanta. Brandon LaFell was held to no catches and Kealoha Pilares scored a 36-yard touchdown because defenders thought he was there for the Hawaiian theme half-time show. Ends up he is a second-year wide receiver now with two career catches. The passing game has been off in recent weeks while the Panthers have faced two good defenses.

The Seahawks have been outstanding - #1 even - against quarterbacks though they have not yet faced one that can run. The Seattle rushing defense has been great too but that was facing Beanie Wells, a visiting Demarco Murray who only had 12 carries, Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson nursing a sore groin. This game works out better for the Panthers than it may seem.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 5 20 24 18 32 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 1 9 13 5 10 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kyle Allen, CAR @NO 30000018011 *
Kyle Allen is expected to get the start with Cam Newton still ailing and Taylor Heinicke down for the count. There is zero reason, even if New Orleans indeed rests everyone of note, to chance it with Allen in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR @NO 6003200000 *
CAP is poised to see an expanded role as Christian McCaffrey is expected to be rested, according to Ron Rivera. The Saints are one of the worst matchups for running backs but have nothing to play for this week. There isn't much upside here, but he could be utilized in the right setting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR @NO 5003200000 *
McCaffrey is expected to be rested in this one, or at least see a drastic reduction in work. The matchup is awful, and it's really not much better if the Saints indeed rest everyone of note.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DJ Moore, CAR @NO 2004500000 *
Two weeks ago, Moore went for just 12 yards on two catches vs. the Saints. While the overall matchup is favorable, Carolina is on its third-string quarterback -- an undrafted fellow making his first NFL appearance. Avoid all Carolina receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Curtis Samuel, CAR @NO 3003200000 *
QB Taylor Heinicke was put on IR this week, meaning undrafted rookie will get the start. Samuel could rack up some points in PPR because of his versatility and short-area passing skills, but he is still a risky play in any situation. The Saints held him to a season-low 3.5 points two weeks ago.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devin Funchess, CAR @NO 002300000 *
Funchess has four catches in his last four games, including consecutive goose eggs, and only 33 yards to his credit. One of those grabs went into the end zone, but he hasn't posted nine or more PPR points since Week 7. New Orleans was one of the teams to shut him out. Kyle Allen will get the start this week after backup Taylor Heinicke was placed on IR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Ian Thomas, CAR @NO 003301000 *
Two weeks ago, Thomas saw four balls come his way, landing two for 14 yards. He rebounded adequately in Week 16 (4-48-1) but still has just one game on the year with more than 48 yards and has scored the lone TD.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, CAR @NO 3311 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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