FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

Prediction: SEA 17, CAR 20 (Line: CAR by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Russell Wilson

The 2-2 Seahawks hit the road where they are 0-2 and have never scored more than one touchdown. The 1-3 Panthers are at home after nearly beating the Falcons last week. This could go in a number of ways but the Seahawks are sticking with Russell Wilson and the Panthers are at home with a far different sort of offense for the Seahawks to defend.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR ----- 14 ARI -----
6 NE ----- 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF ----- 16 SF -----
8 @DET ----- 17 STL -----
9 MIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 150,1
WR Doug Baldwin 1-10
TE Jimmy Graham 7-100,1
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: Russell Wilson is once again the subject of talk and HC Pete Carroll has said he is sticking with the rookie "for now". Wilson has been there for both of the Seahawks wins but it may be a stretch to say he had a lot to do with them. Wilson has not shown the running skills that were expected and his passing has been marginal at best.

After four weeks, Wilson has averaged only 149 passing yards per game with never more than 160 yards or less than 130 yards. He has four touchdowns and four interceptions. On the plus side he is easy to predict. On the negative - that is Blaine Gabbert numbers. That is worse than Blaine Gabbert which as of last year we did not think could survive as a starting quarterback. But it does. For now.

Matt Flynn could get the call if Seattle loses more games and Russell just chugs along with his 150-1 no matter what is happening in the game. With NE and @SF up next, Flynn might just grab a helmet in the near future. The Pats and 49ers are not going to allow the run to control the game.

The minimal passing stats obviously strips all fantasy value from the receivers and truly the only single passing play of any consequence after four weeks was when Golden Tate caught M.D. Jennings who was holding the ball in the end zone at the end of the Packers games. Otherwise no receiver has more than 43 yards in any game.

Marshawn Lynch has largely carried the team to two victories and has never failed to gain at least 85 yards as a runner. He almost never catches the ball though and has only two touchdowns on the year. Robert Turbin ended up with six runs in St. Louis and gained 45 yards but this still remains not only Lynch's offense but Lynch's team.

It seems a dream match-up for Lynch to face the #32 defense against running backs and indeed it should be a profitable day but realize too that the Panthers gave up yards to runners who were a part of big time passers like Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. And only two runners have actually scored a rushing touchdowns on them. The yardage should be there since four runners turned in 95+ yards but do not underestimate the effect of a team being on the road with no passing game to fear.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 32 19 31 25 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 22 32 5 17 32 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @TEN 40000023010 ***
It has not been a fantasy-friendly start to the year for RW3. The offensive line is a mess, and the running game is still finding its way. Wilson is a shaky play on the road against a Titans team allowing 1.5 quarterback TDs per game so far.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Carson, SEA @TEN 7001100000 ***
RBs have fared moderately against the Titans in two games -- 172 yards and a TD later, this is a midrange matchup. Carson doesn't offer much as a receiver, and Tennessee has been pretty good in this area anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB C.J. Prosise, SEA @TEN 1003200000 ***
The Titans have bottled up RBs of the pass-catching variety. Avoid Prosise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @TEN 003401000 **
The Titans have given up 28 receptions and three of those resulted in six points for the enemy. Lockett needs a TD to salvage a starting investment in a lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @TEN 005600000 ***
Amari Cooper, Seth Roberts and Allen Hurns all have scored versus the Titans in 2017. Otherwise, Tennessee has done fairly well at containing the position. Baldwin's projection could turn out on the low side if Russell Wilson has time to pass.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA @TEN 004500000 ***
Only four teams have given up more PPR points per game to wideouts this year, and one of those teams played a single game. The Titans have been most damaged by permitting three trips to paydirt.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA @TEN 003200000 *
Graham posted a stinker in Week 2, and it may not be much better against a Titans team that has allowed only five TE catches for 56 yards in two games.

Update: He's listed as questionable with an ankle injury but is expected to play, per Pete Carroll.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, SEA @TEN 2211 ***
Kickers have made all five field goal kicks and three extra points facing the Titans thus far.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN -----
2 NO 35-27 11 TB -----
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI -----
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA ----- 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL ----- 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI ----- 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 60,1 220,1
RB Jonathan Stewart 30 3-20
TE Ed Dickson 2-20
TE Greg Olsen 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: Losing to the Falcons was a tough one since the Panthers were ahead in the game until the final seconds and gave up a field goal only after Cam Newton fumbled on third down and forced a punt. There was plenty of other factors in play as well (ie. 59-yard completion to Roddy White with 59 seconds left to play). But Newton already was taking the Giants loss hard and once again had to deal with the emotional realities of being a quarterback.

The reason the Panthers were in the game against a very tough opponent in their stadium was because Newton rushed for 86 yards and a score and passed for 215 yards and two more touchdowns. That only gives Newton four touchdowns on the season against five interceptions but he has three running scores as well. Newton has been passing for solid yardage every week but he has yet to have a truly big passing day.

The rushing game chugs along unchecked. Jonathan Stewart was back from his toe injury and had no setbacks while gaining 40 yards on ten carries. He and DeAngelo Williams split the carries so neatly that they almost mirror each other in yardage. Unfortunately, that ends up to be a decent game divided by two which equals not a decent game.

Greg Olsen is still the one to watch in the receiving offense. He has about 90 yards in each of the last two weeks and scored in Atlanta for the first time this season. No other receiver has that sort of production. Steve Smith still has not scored this year and since opening with two 100+ yard efforts, he has declined to only 52 yards on three receptions in Atlanta. Brandon LaFell was held to no catches and Kealoha Pilares scored a 36-yard touchdown because defenders thought he was there for the Hawaiian theme half-time show. Ends up he is a second-year wide receiver now with two career catches. The passing game has been off in recent weeks while the Panthers have faced two good defenses.

The Seahawks have been outstanding - #1 even - against quarterbacks though they have not yet faced one that can run. The Seattle rushing defense has been great too but that was facing Beanie Wells, a visiting Demarco Murray who only had 12 carries, Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson nursing a sore groin. This game works out better for the Panthers than it may seem.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 5 20 24 18 32 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 1 9 13 5 10 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cam Newton, CAR NO 20000027020 ***
This should be the week in which Newton shakes off the rust. He'll be without his trusted tight end, so finding other weapons for short-area passing is a must. Last year, he posted 30.2 points in Week 6 at the Saints and then just 14.3 in the Week 11 follow-up.

Update: Both CBs Marshon Lattimore and Sterling Moore have been ruled out for the Saints. Panthers center Ryan Kalil also is out, and Newton is listed as questionable. He was limited Friday but should be fine to play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR NO 5005401000 ***
Look for more targets with Greg Olsen out. McCaffrey had a wide-open TD pass that Cam Newton overthrew. The Saints have allowed 19 catches for 185 yards and a touchdown to the position so far in 2017.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR NO 6012200000 ***
Look for Carolina to pound the ball as much as possible to keep Drew Brees on the sideline. The Panthers' veteran rushed four three TDs in two games last year facing the Saints, including a 20.5-point fantasy day in Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR NO 0061001000 ***
No Greg Olsen should get KB involved more this week. Assuming Cam Newton doesn't struggle delivering the ball again, Benjamin should have no trouble exploiting the worst pass defense in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devin Funchess, CAR NO 005600000 ***
The Saints have allowed three WR touchdowns in two games, in addition to yielding a league-worst 461 yards on 28 catches. Funchess, though, is a flier until he shows more consistency.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Russell Shepard, CAR NO 002300000 ***
Shepard is presented with a stellar matchup that conceivably makes him a deep flier for DFS action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Ed Dickson, CAR NO 003200000 ***
Don't rely on Dickson to replace Greg Olsen. The veteran tight end has had plenty of chances to show he is just a bit player.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Graham Gano, CAR NO 2233 ***
Two teams have permitted more fantasy kicker points in 2017 than the Saints, and that includes two missing point-after tries.

WEEK 5
2012
ARI at STL (THU) CHI at JAC MIA at CIN *TEN at MIN
ATL at WAS *CLE at NYG PHI at PIT *HOU at NYJ (MON)
BAL at KC *DEN at NE *SD at NO Bye:
*Updated BUF at SF GB at IND SEA at CAR DAL, DET, OAK, TB

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