Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: BUF 13, ARI 34 (Line: ARI by 5)

Players to Watch: William Powell

The 2-3 Bills are on a two game losing steak and have a 1-2 road record. They are coming off a beatdown in San Francisco of epic proportions. The 4-1 Cardinals are coming off their first loss of the season and no doubt are very much looking forward to this game. The Bills have already allowed three opponents to score over 44 points.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI ----- 15 SEA -----
7 TEN ----- 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Reggie Bush 90,1 5-30
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 5-30
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: At least in the past when the Bills would give up a ton of points, at least they would also score a respectable amount. Not so last week where a late field goal prevented a shut out. Ryan Fitzpatrick only produced 126 passing yards and no scores after posting at least two touchdowns in every other game. He still ranks #3 in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes but his yardage has been low in almost every game. Fitzpatrick had decent fantasy value because of his touchdowns but with several decent defenses on the horizon, his outlook is not nearly as good.

Painful too was the fact that the Bills rushing offense has only looked good when Fred Jackson is out, C.J. Spiller is in and, oh yes, they are facing a weak defense. Jackson still has not produced a touchdown or more than 29 rushing yards in a game despite up to 13 carries. Spiller was huge in the Jets and Chiefs game but since has not rushed for more than 33 yards. This offense seems to only run well when just one back is used and the matchup is highly favorable. Splitting the carries is ruining the fantasy value of both runners and in fairness, even their combined totals are anemic in recent weeks.

Scott Chandler is still a factor with four catches for 40 yards in San Francisco but his weekly yardage remains low enough to a problem when he does not score. He has a touchdown or two in three of five games and will be facing much more challenging defenses in the coming weeks.

The lack of passing yardage means none of the wideouts are that relevant on a fantasy team other than Steve Johnson. His last two games have been bad - 2-23 against the Patriots and 6-39 in San Francisco but he scored in the first three games of the year and was consistent around 60 yards per game. Johnson is no better than the secondary he faces but going against the Titans next week should be plenty profitable. Donald Jones has only the one long scoring play against the Patriots to lift him above complete futility for the last month. T.J. Graham is making small strides but not enough to affect a game much less a fantasy score.

The Cardinals at home are always tough and their defense this year has been outstanding. They have only allowed six offensive touchdowns over the five games this year and most end with only moderate passing yardage. They have permitted just one rushing score and no runner has produced more than 85 rushing yards against them. Splitting up the workload between Jackson and Spiller only further waters down what can happen. Another problem is that the only wideout of any note here (Johnson) gets to be limited by CB Patrick Peterson.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 16 13 21 18 31 18
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 7 2 20 5 19 20

QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF @MIA 50100018010 ***
This is a midrange matchup for Taylor, whose cast of targets is depleted to the point where he is a tough sell in a week with only two teams on bye. The running game is the focus in Buffalo, which also hurts Taylor from a gaming perspective. Miami has allowed 20.5 points per game to the position.
RB Mike Gillislee, BUF @MIA 9012200000 **
Miami has given up chunks of yardage but only one offensive touchdown to RBs this year. Monitor McCoy's status Friday after he suffered a hamstring strain in Wednesday's practice and is reported by some to be likely out. Gillislee will be an excellent option if McCoy is called out officially.

Update: Questionable, limited for McCoy ... Gillislee should see a boost in work even if Shady plays.
WR Marquise Goodwin, BUF @MIA 002201000 **
Miami has allowed a TD catch by a receiver once every 11.6 catches, which is tied for the 10th worst ratio. Goodwin remains a tough play in fantasy, but gamers should at least consider him.
WR Justin Hunter, BUF @MIA 002300000 ***
Hunter should see more action with Robert Woods unlikely to play. The matchup makes him a worthwhile flier in deep setups.
WR Walter Powell, BUF @MIA 002300000 ***
Powell enters the rankings with Robert Woods' injury. The matchup is nice, but he has no business being in a fantasy lineup.
TE Charles Clay, BUF @MIA 005600000 ***
Clay has become a fixture in the passing game since Sammy Watkins went down. While he isn't going bonkers or anything, posting double-digit PPR points has been a common theme. Miami ranks squarely in the middle of the pack against TEs.

Update: Clay continues to be listed as questionable each week and plays through the injuries. He was limited Friday and will be a game-time decision.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF @MIA 3333 ***
Ranking near the middle of the league in fantasy points per game, Carpenter's Week 7 opponent doesn't allow many points to the position, ranking as the fifth hardest matchup. Game flow should work in Buffalo's favor and buck these statistical trends.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF ----- 15 DET -----
7 @MIN ----- 16 CHI -----
8 SF ----- 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 240,1
RB Chris Johnson 20 2-10
WR Larry Fitzgerald 8-110,2
WR Michael Floyd 2-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-40

Pregame Notes: The winning streak ended in St. Louis against a surprisingly good defense but back at home the Cardinals definitely have a shot at a nice win this week against the team that just lost 3-45 to the 49ers. But that will need to happen via the pass more than the run since Ryan Williams will undergo shoulder surgery and is done for the year. His career has so far been bitterly disappointing with injuries.

Since Beanie Wells is out for at least another six weeks or more, the workload will be inherited by William Powell and LaRod Stephens-Howling. There is precious little confidence that anything is going to happen out of the Cardinals backfield this year. But at least William Powell becomes a free agent darling since he'll likely take over the primary load which so far means maybe a dozen carries per game.

Kevin Kolb passed for 289 yards in St. Louis but had his first game without any touchdowns. Kolb passed for five touchdowns over the last two home games and had solid to good yardage. The run game has been so lethargic here that each game comes down to Kolb trying to outscore the opponent's offense. To his credit, he has only thrown two interception in his four starts against seven interceptions.

Tight end Rob Housler is trying to make something out of the opportunity while Todd Heap has been out with a knee sprain. Housler has been as good as five catches for 62 yards though neither he nor Heap has scored this year. Heap may be back this week, he was a game time decision against the Rams.

Kolb has relied heavily on Larry Fitzgerald who has been outstanding at least when at home this year. Fitzgerald caught eight or more passes in each of the last three games and scored in each home venue. Safe enough to assume good things with the Bills soon to show up this week. Andre Roberts was held to only 39 yards in St. Louis even though he had a season high ten targets. Roberts has three touchdowns so far but only one game with more than 55 yards when he posted 118 yards on six catches in the last home game when the Dolphins visited. Michael Floyd remains the #3 receiver though he is sharing with Early Doucet and neither produce enough for any fantasy merit.

Hard not to love a defense that has allowed 14 touchdowns to quarterbacks and three of the last four threw for 300+ yards. This should be another very nice game for Kolb who will be getting even less support from an already meager rushing effort. The Cardinals defense is a good play this week as well. If Williams Powell can go anything against anyone, it would be home versus the Bills who have allowed eight touchdowns to running backs. The last three opponents featured a running back with over 100 rushing yards when going against the Bills.

The Bills have allowed 97 over the past two weeks. Bound to be fantasy points generated in this game as well. I like a defensive score in this game as well.

Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 18 30 11 24 23 4
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 32 28 27 25 15 25

QB Carson Palmer, ARI SEA 0000024011 ***
Given his struggles, including exiting early last week for injury evaluation, Palmer is a gamble against fantasy's second most dominant defense of his position.
RB David Johnson, ARI SEA 8015500000 ***
Johnson is too talented to outright bench, even with a tough matchup. The versatile back offers aerial points and should somewhat overcome an oppressive opponent like Seattle.
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI SEA 006701000 **
By virtually every metric, Fitzgerald will need to overachieve to win this matchup. He's a future Hall of Famer for a reason, so keep him in the lineup.
WR Michael Floyd, ARI SEA 004400000 ***
Floyd is barely playing, but there's an effort to get him involved more. He is a desperation play as a flex in non-PPR only because of his big-play nature. The matchup is less than kind, however.
WR Jaron Brown, ARI SEA 004400000 ***
Brown has cut into Michael Floyd's snaps lately, and he should benefit from the attention paid to Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson by Seattle. Even still, it's not enough to make him more than a wild play as a fringe flex choice in PPR.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI SEA 1122 ***
This is the seventh toughest matchup for kickers. Only Minnesota has allowed fewer extra points, and Seattle is a one of a handful to have allowed single digits for FGAs.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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