Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: BUF 13, ARI 34 (Line: ARI by 5)

Players to Watch: William Powell

The 2-3 Bills are on a two game losing steak and have a 1-2 road record. They are coming off a beatdown in San Francisco of epic proportions. The 4-1 Cardinals are coming off their first loss of the season and no doubt are very much looking forward to this game. The Bills have already allowed three opponents to score over 44 points.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI ----- 15 SEA -----
7 TEN ----- 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 5-30
WR Percy Harvin 20 7-100,1
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: At least in the past when the Bills would give up a ton of points, at least they would also score a respectable amount. Not so last week where a late field goal prevented a shut out. Ryan Fitzpatrick only produced 126 passing yards and no scores after posting at least two touchdowns in every other game. He still ranks #3 in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes but his yardage has been low in almost every game. Fitzpatrick had decent fantasy value because of his touchdowns but with several decent defenses on the horizon, his outlook is not nearly as good.

Painful too was the fact that the Bills rushing offense has only looked good when Fred Jackson is out, C.J. Spiller is in and, oh yes, they are facing a weak defense. Jackson still has not produced a touchdown or more than 29 rushing yards in a game despite up to 13 carries. Spiller was huge in the Jets and Chiefs game but since has not rushed for more than 33 yards. This offense seems to only run well when just one back is used and the matchup is highly favorable. Splitting the carries is ruining the fantasy value of both runners and in fairness, even their combined totals are anemic in recent weeks.

Scott Chandler is still a factor with four catches for 40 yards in San Francisco but his weekly yardage remains low enough to a problem when he does not score. He has a touchdown or two in three of five games and will be facing much more challenging defenses in the coming weeks.

The lack of passing yardage means none of the wideouts are that relevant on a fantasy team other than Steve Johnson. His last two games have been bad - 2-23 against the Patriots and 6-39 in San Francisco but he scored in the first three games of the year and was consistent around 60 yards per game. Johnson is no better than the secondary he faces but going against the Titans next week should be plenty profitable. Donald Jones has only the one long scoring play against the Patriots to lift him above complete futility for the last month. T.J. Graham is making small strides but not enough to affect a game much less a fantasy score.

The Cardinals at home are always tough and their defense this year has been outstanding. They have only allowed six offensive touchdowns over the five games this year and most end with only moderate passing yardage. They have permitted just one rushing score and no runner has produced more than 85 rushing yards against them. Splitting up the workload between Jackson and Spiller only further waters down what can happen. Another problem is that the only wideout of any note here (Johnson) gets to be limited by CB Patrick Peterson.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 16 13 21 18 31 18
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 7 2 20 5 19 20

QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF NYG 40100030010 ***
Taylor takes on a Giants defense that's allowed three straight 300-yard passers. He's posted back-to-back games with three TD tosses, so between the yardage and the scores--and his bonus rushing stats--he's a solid fantasy play this week.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF NYG 10013200000 ***
With Shady McCoy a likely no-go, Williams should expand on his 6-12 carries. Hey, he turned a dozen into 110 yards last week and has a touchdown in every game this year, so a regular workload only amplifies what he can do for your fantasy squad.
WR Robert Woods, BUF NYG 005601000 **
Woods should see a few more looks with Sammy Watkins on the sidelines, maybe even enough to make him a fringe fantasy option.
WR Percy Harvin, BUF NYG 1005500000 ***
Harvin stepped up with 7-66 last week as Sammy Watkins was hampered and looks to be the lead receiver with Watkins slated to sit out this week. He's balling as well and as consistently as he has since his days in Minnesota, and a star turn should yield helpful fantasy numbers.
WR Chris Hogan, BUF NYG 004500000 ***
Hogan slides into Sammy Watkins' spot in the Buffalo receiver rotation. Since a talent like Sammy provides inconsistent results, don't expect much from Hogan in his absence.
TE Charles Clay, BUF NYG 006701000 ****
Clay has scored in two straight, seen an increasing amount of targets, and faces a Giants defense that's given up 241 yards and three TDs to the position already this year. Yahtzee!
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF NYG 1144 ***
Buffalo's offense has almost been too good, at least from a kicker's perspective in that Carpenter is piling up PATs instead of field goals. Nice problem to have.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF ----- 15 DET -----
7 @MIN ----- 16 CHI -----
8 SF ----- 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 240,1
RB Chris Johnson 20 2-10
WR Larry Fitzgerald 8-110,2
WR Michael Floyd 2-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-40

Pregame Notes: The winning streak ended in St. Louis against a surprisingly good defense but back at home the Cardinals definitely have a shot at a nice win this week against the team that just lost 3-45 to the 49ers. But that will need to happen via the pass more than the run since Ryan Williams will undergo shoulder surgery and is done for the year. His career has so far been bitterly disappointing with injuries.

Since Beanie Wells is out for at least another six weeks or more, the workload will be inherited by William Powell and LaRod Stephens-Howling. There is precious little confidence that anything is going to happen out of the Cardinals backfield this year. But at least William Powell becomes a free agent darling since he'll likely take over the primary load which so far means maybe a dozen carries per game.

Kevin Kolb passed for 289 yards in St. Louis but had his first game without any touchdowns. Kolb passed for five touchdowns over the last two home games and had solid to good yardage. The run game has been so lethargic here that each game comes down to Kolb trying to outscore the opponent's offense. To his credit, he has only thrown two interception in his four starts against seven interceptions.

Tight end Rob Housler is trying to make something out of the opportunity while Todd Heap has been out with a knee sprain. Housler has been as good as five catches for 62 yards though neither he nor Heap has scored this year. Heap may be back this week, he was a game time decision against the Rams.

Kolb has relied heavily on Larry Fitzgerald who has been outstanding at least when at home this year. Fitzgerald caught eight or more passes in each of the last three games and scored in each home venue. Safe enough to assume good things with the Bills soon to show up this week. Andre Roberts was held to only 39 yards in St. Louis even though he had a season high ten targets. Roberts has three touchdowns so far but only one game with more than 55 yards when he posted 118 yards on six catches in the last home game when the Dolphins visited. Michael Floyd remains the #3 receiver though he is sharing with Early Doucet and neither produce enough for any fantasy merit.

Hard not to love a defense that has allowed 14 touchdowns to quarterbacks and three of the last four threw for 300+ yards. This should be another very nice game for Kolb who will be getting even less support from an already meager rushing effort. The Cardinals defense is a good play this week as well. If Williams Powell can go anything against anyone, it would be home versus the Bills who have allowed eight touchdowns to running backs. The last three opponents featured a running back with over 100 rushing yards when going against the Bills.

The Bills have allowed 97 over the past two weeks. Bound to be fantasy points generated in this game as well. I like a defensive score in this game as well.

Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 18 30 11 24 23 4
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 32 28 27 25 15 25

QB Carson Palmer, ARI STL 0000025021 ***
Palmer's been red-hot this season; even when he didn't throw for 300 yards he still tossed four touchdowns. The Rams present a much stiffer test, as they haven't allowed more than 251 passing yards and only two TDs in three games. Dial back the expectations on Palmer, but don't bail on him entirely.
RB Chris Johnson, ARI STL 10011100000 ***
Johnson threw up a couple of monster outings against the Rams during his Titans' heyday, but he won't be seeing the same workload here as Andre Ellington returns from injury. In fact, the prudent move would be to let the Cards sort out how they'll divvy up carries amongst their three-headed backfield committee before plugging one into your fantasy lineup.
RB David Johnson, ARI STL 1002301000 ***
The rookie's slice of the pie was already thing, and the return of Andre Ellington won't help matters. He's still explosive, but the decrease in touches makes him an even riskier fantasy play than before.
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI STL 0071001000 ***
Carson Palmer was around for most of the Week 10 meeting between these clubs, when Fitz went for 9-112; contrast that with the 7-30 he put up in the rematch sans Palmer. Carson's back, Larry's eating, and after seeing Antonio Brown take the Rams' secondary for triple digit yardage there's no reason Fitz can't do the same here.
WR Michael Floyd, ARI STL 003500000 ***
The Cards are trying to work Floyd back into the mix, but with Larry Fitzgerald playing so well and John Brown emerging it's tough to make room. With the overall passing game limited by a tough matchup, wait for a more favorable opportunity before re-inserting Floyd into your fantasy lineup.
WR John Brown, ARI STL 004500000 ***
Brown remains the wingman, but a combination of a tough matchup and the Cards trying to work Michael Floyd back into the lineup are sapping his fantasy value.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI STL 2244 ***
Catanzaro's only downfall this season has been counting by ones instead of threes, but at least he's been a steady supply of points.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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