Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: BUF 13, ARI 34 (Line: ARI by 5)

Players to Watch: William Powell

The 2-3 Bills are on a two game losing steak and have a 1-2 road record. They are coming off a beatdown in San Francisco of epic proportions. The 4-1 Cardinals are coming off their first loss of the season and no doubt are very much looking forward to this game. The Bills have already allowed three opponents to score over 44 points.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI ----- 15 SEA -----
7 TEN ----- 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Fred Jackson 30 2-20
RB C.J. Spiller 30 2-30
WR Mike Williams 4-60
TE Scott Chandler 5-40,1
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: At least in the past when the Bills would give up a ton of points, at least they would also score a respectable amount. Not so last week where a late field goal prevented a shut out. Ryan Fitzpatrick only produced 126 passing yards and no scores after posting at least two touchdowns in every other game. He still ranks #3 in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes but his yardage has been low in almost every game. Fitzpatrick had decent fantasy value because of his touchdowns but with several decent defenses on the horizon, his outlook is not nearly as good.

Painful too was the fact that the Bills rushing offense has only looked good when Fred Jackson is out, C.J. Spiller is in and, oh yes, they are facing a weak defense. Jackson still has not produced a touchdown or more than 29 rushing yards in a game despite up to 13 carries. Spiller was huge in the Jets and Chiefs game but since has not rushed for more than 33 yards. This offense seems to only run well when just one back is used and the matchup is highly favorable. Splitting the carries is ruining the fantasy value of both runners and in fairness, even their combined totals are anemic in recent weeks.

Scott Chandler is still a factor with four catches for 40 yards in San Francisco but his weekly yardage remains low enough to a problem when he does not score. He has a touchdown or two in three of five games and will be facing much more challenging defenses in the coming weeks.

The lack of passing yardage means none of the wideouts are that relevant on a fantasy team other than Steve Johnson. His last two games have been bad - 2-23 against the Patriots and 6-39 in San Francisco but he scored in the first three games of the year and was consistent around 60 yards per game. Johnson is no better than the secondary he faces but going against the Titans next week should be plenty profitable. Donald Jones has only the one long scoring play against the Patriots to lift him above complete futility for the last month. T.J. Graham is making small strides but not enough to affect a game much less a fantasy score.

The Cardinals at home are always tough and their defense this year has been outstanding. They have only allowed six offensive touchdowns over the five games this year and most end with only moderate passing yardage. They have permitted just one rushing score and no runner has produced more than 85 rushing yards against them. Splitting up the workload between Jackson and Spiller only further waters down what can happen. Another problem is that the only wideout of any note here (Johnson) gets to be limited by CB Patrick Peterson.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 16 13 21 18 31 18
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 7 2 20 5 19 20

QB Kyle Orton, BUF @OAK 0000019011 ***
We've seen nothing from Orton of late--one multi-TD game in his last six outings--to suggest he warrants a fantasy play here, even in a reasonably compelling matchup with the Raiders.
RB Fred Jackson, BUF @OAK 6016500000 ***
While you can run on the Raiders, and the Bills and Jackson most certainly will, where they're particularly susceptible is to pass-catching backs. Fred has 19 catches in the four games since he returned to action; that coupled with his carries makes him a good fantasy start that elevates to great in PPR formats.
RB Anthony Dixon, BUF @OAK 2001100000 ***
Dixon's role never really materialized when the Bills were down a couple backs; now that Fred Jackson and potentially CJ Spiller are back, he's persona non grata.
RB Bryce Brown, BUF @OAK 200000000 ***
Complementary backs have done next to nothing since the return of Fred Jackson, and it will take garbage time for Brown to see enough touches to have a fantasy impact. But it's Oakland, so we're sayin' there's a chance.
WR Robert Woods, BUF @OAK 003500000 ***
Woods has had a couple big games against the Jets, but that just puts him in the big pile of "receivers with a pulse". With Kyle Orton's subdued numbers there's likely room for just one fantasy impact player among Buffalo's receivers--and Sammy Watkins has that covered.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF @OAK 004400000 ***
Two of the three 100-yard games the Raiders have given up to opposing wide receivers have gone to speed guys (Malcom Floyd, Stedman Bailey). Watkins is most certainly a speed guy, not to mention the Bills' top target--and the best bet for fantasy success in the Buffalo passing game.
TE Scott Chandler, BUF @OAK 003201000 **
The Raiders have given up five TE TDs in the past six games so don't dismiss Chandler out of hand. But he has one TD in the past six games, so he's far from a lock.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF @OAK 1133 ****
Carpenter has double-digits in two of the past three and at least seven points in six of the past seven--numbers sure to be equaled or exceeded against an Oakland defense that's allowed at least seven kicker points in 13 of 14 games, and double-digit points six times already.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF ----- 15 DET -----
7 @MIN ----- 16 CHI -----
8 SF ----- 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 240,1
WR Larry Fitzgerald 8-110,2
WR Michael Floyd 2-30
TE Rob Housler 4-40

Pregame Notes: The winning streak ended in St. Louis against a surprisingly good defense but back at home the Cardinals definitely have a shot at a nice win this week against the team that just lost 3-45 to the 49ers. But that will need to happen via the pass more than the run since Ryan Williams will undergo shoulder surgery and is done for the year. His career has so far been bitterly disappointing with injuries.

Since Beanie Wells is out for at least another six weeks or more, the workload will be inherited by William Powell and LaRod Stephens-Howling. There is precious little confidence that anything is going to happen out of the Cardinals backfield this year. But at least William Powell becomes a free agent darling since he'll likely take over the primary load which so far means maybe a dozen carries per game.

Kevin Kolb passed for 289 yards in St. Louis but had his first game without any touchdowns. Kolb passed for five touchdowns over the last two home games and had solid to good yardage. The run game has been so lethargic here that each game comes down to Kolb trying to outscore the opponent's offense. To his credit, he has only thrown two interception in his four starts against seven interceptions.

Tight end Rob Housler is trying to make something out of the opportunity while Todd Heap has been out with a knee sprain. Housler has been as good as five catches for 62 yards though neither he nor Heap has scored this year. Heap may be back this week, he was a game time decision against the Rams.

Kolb has relied heavily on Larry Fitzgerald who has been outstanding at least when at home this year. Fitzgerald caught eight or more passes in each of the last three games and scored in each home venue. Safe enough to assume good things with the Bills soon to show up this week. Andre Roberts was held to only 39 yards in St. Louis even though he had a season high ten targets. Roberts has three touchdowns so far but only one game with more than 55 yards when he posted 118 yards on six catches in the last home game when the Dolphins visited. Michael Floyd remains the #3 receiver though he is sharing with Early Doucet and neither produce enough for any fantasy merit.

Hard not to love a defense that has allowed 14 touchdowns to quarterbacks and three of the last four threw for 300+ yards. This should be another very nice game for Kolb who will be getting even less support from an already meager rushing effort. The Cardinals defense is a good play this week as well. If Williams Powell can go anything against anyone, it would be home versus the Bills who have allowed eight touchdowns to running backs. The last three opponents featured a running back with over 100 rushing yards when going against the Bills.

The Bills have allowed 97 over the past two weeks. Bound to be fantasy points generated in this game as well. I like a defensive score in this game as well.

Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 18 30 11 24 23 4
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 32 28 27 25 15 25

QB Ryan Lindley, ARI SEA 0000018001 *
It's been nine games since an opposing quarterback delivered a fantasy helper (two TDs and 250-plus yards) against the Seahawks. Lindley, who has yet to throw a touchdown in 181 NFL attempts, is not the next. The last time he saw the Seahawks he was on the butt end of a 58-0 thrashing in which the only highlight of his 8-17-59 performance was that he wasn't picked off.
RB Stepfan Taylor, ARI SEA 2004300000 ***
Taylor will get the pleasure of between-the-tackles work against the Seahawks. His share of the Arizona workload won't amount to much if any fantasy assistance.
RB Kerwynn Williams, ARI SEA 3001100000 ***
Williams was the slightly more effective back last week as he and Stepfan Taylor split the workload. Neither will do much this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed exactly one running back (Jamaal Charles) to top 50 yards in the past two months.
WR John Brown, ARI SEA 003500000 *
Brown's 61 yards in Week 12 is the best showing by a wideout against the Seahawks in the past five games. So if 61 yards floats your boat, enjoy.
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI SEA 003400000 *
In three previous full games with Lindley at the helm, Fitzgerald has been targeted 24 times. Unfortunately only eight of those were close enough for the sure-handed Fitz to grab, and they resulted in a meager 76 yards and zero TDs. Tough to expect any of those stats to improve against Seattle's stout secondary.
TE John Carlson, ARI SEA 003300000 ***
Ryan Lindley leaned heavily on tight ends (23 targets, one shy of Larry Fitzgerald over that same span) in his earlier stint as a starter, so there's that upside for Carlson. Also, Seattle's softest spot defensively this season has been tight end. Nope... can't quite muster up enough enthusiasm to warrant a fantasy play for Carlson this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI SEA 1100 ***
Maybe Catanzaro does all the Cards' scoring again, but the Ryan Lindley-led offense may not even get him across midfield.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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