Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: BUF 13, ARI 34 (Line: ARI by 5)

Players to Watch: William Powell

The 2-3 Bills are on a two game losing steak and have a 1-2 road record. They are coming off a beatdown in San Francisco of epic proportions. The 4-1 Cardinals are coming off their first loss of the season and no doubt are very much looking forward to this game. The Bills have already allowed three opponents to score over 44 points.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI ----- 15 SEA -----
7 TEN ----- 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 5-30
WR Percy Harvin 20 7-100,1
WR Denarius Moore 5-60,1
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: At least in the past when the Bills would give up a ton of points, at least they would also score a respectable amount. Not so last week where a late field goal prevented a shut out. Ryan Fitzpatrick only produced 126 passing yards and no scores after posting at least two touchdowns in every other game. He still ranks #3 in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes but his yardage has been low in almost every game. Fitzpatrick had decent fantasy value because of his touchdowns but with several decent defenses on the horizon, his outlook is not nearly as good.

Painful too was the fact that the Bills rushing offense has only looked good when Fred Jackson is out, C.J. Spiller is in and, oh yes, they are facing a weak defense. Jackson still has not produced a touchdown or more than 29 rushing yards in a game despite up to 13 carries. Spiller was huge in the Jets and Chiefs game but since has not rushed for more than 33 yards. This offense seems to only run well when just one back is used and the matchup is highly favorable. Splitting the carries is ruining the fantasy value of both runners and in fairness, even their combined totals are anemic in recent weeks.

Scott Chandler is still a factor with four catches for 40 yards in San Francisco but his weekly yardage remains low enough to a problem when he does not score. He has a touchdown or two in three of five games and will be facing much more challenging defenses in the coming weeks.

The lack of passing yardage means none of the wideouts are that relevant on a fantasy team other than Steve Johnson. His last two games have been bad - 2-23 against the Patriots and 6-39 in San Francisco but he scored in the first three games of the year and was consistent around 60 yards per game. Johnson is no better than the secondary he faces but going against the Titans next week should be plenty profitable. Donald Jones has only the one long scoring play against the Patriots to lift him above complete futility for the last month. T.J. Graham is making small strides but not enough to affect a game much less a fantasy score.

The Cardinals at home are always tough and their defense this year has been outstanding. They have only allowed six offensive touchdowns over the five games this year and most end with only moderate passing yardage. They have permitted just one rushing score and no runner has produced more than 85 rushing yards against them. Splitting up the workload between Jackson and Spiller only further waters down what can happen. Another problem is that the only wideout of any note here (Johnson) gets to be limited by CB Patrick Peterson.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 16 13 21 18 31 18
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 7 2 20 5 19 20

QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF @NE 40000020011 ***
Taylor's stat line in the earlier meeting with New England was pure fantasy gold, with three passing scores and a rushing score to boot. The Patriots have given up plenty of garbage time numbers to opposing QBs, so even though Taylor has underwhelmed since returning from injury he's still a viable fantasy option here.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF @NE 3012200000 ***
Williams owns one of only four RB TDs the Patriots have given up this season despite touching the ball just eight times in that Week 2 meeting. His nose for the stripe has landed him in the end zone in every game he's played; at fewer than 10 touches a game--his workload in four of five with a healthy LeSean McCoy, including each of the last two--that string can't go on forever. This might be the matchup to take the under.
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF @NE 6005300000 ***
McCoy has seen 18 or more touches in every game since returning from injury, producing at least 94 yards in every outing and and triple-digit combo yardage in each of the previous three. Back in the Week 2 meeting with New England McCoy rushed for 89 yards and added another 27 as a receiver; since then no back has rushed for as much, nor has a back reached the century mark in yards from scrimmage. Dial back expectations on McCoy, especially with Karlos Williams stealing his touchdowns, but he's still a viable fantasy play.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF @NE 005701000 **
Watkins was decent in the earlier meeting with New England, producing 6-60-1. With no Darrelle Revis in sight, the Bills can go back to force-feeding him--and that's a good thing fantasy-wise.
WR Robert Woods, BUF @NE 004500000 ***
Woods was effective in the earlier meeting with New England and could be again here if targets are distributed evenly. Slot receivers have fared well against the Patriots, so err on the side of fantasy upside with Woods this week.
TE Charles Clay, BUF @NE 004400000 ***
Clay scored in the earlier meeting with New England but he's been inconsistently used since and the Patriots have allowed only two TE TDs and one tight end to top 45 yards since then. Not enough upside to warrant a fantasy start.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF @NE 2222 ***
Carpenter has seen an uptick in scoring over the past month, but keep in mind he mustered just two points in the earlier meeting in Buffalo and proceed with caution.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF ----- 15 DET -----
7 @MIN ----- 16 CHI -----
8 SF ----- 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 240,1
RB Chris Johnson 20 2-10
WR Larry Fitzgerald 8-110,2
WR Michael Floyd 2-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-40

Pregame Notes: The winning streak ended in St. Louis against a surprisingly good defense but back at home the Cardinals definitely have a shot at a nice win this week against the team that just lost 3-45 to the 49ers. But that will need to happen via the pass more than the run since Ryan Williams will undergo shoulder surgery and is done for the year. His career has so far been bitterly disappointing with injuries.

Since Beanie Wells is out for at least another six weeks or more, the workload will be inherited by William Powell and LaRod Stephens-Howling. There is precious little confidence that anything is going to happen out of the Cardinals backfield this year. But at least William Powell becomes a free agent darling since he'll likely take over the primary load which so far means maybe a dozen carries per game.

Kevin Kolb passed for 289 yards in St. Louis but had his first game without any touchdowns. Kolb passed for five touchdowns over the last two home games and had solid to good yardage. The run game has been so lethargic here that each game comes down to Kolb trying to outscore the opponent's offense. To his credit, he has only thrown two interception in his four starts against seven interceptions.

Tight end Rob Housler is trying to make something out of the opportunity while Todd Heap has been out with a knee sprain. Housler has been as good as five catches for 62 yards though neither he nor Heap has scored this year. Heap may be back this week, he was a game time decision against the Rams.

Kolb has relied heavily on Larry Fitzgerald who has been outstanding at least when at home this year. Fitzgerald caught eight or more passes in each of the last three games and scored in each home venue. Safe enough to assume good things with the Bills soon to show up this week. Andre Roberts was held to only 39 yards in St. Louis even though he had a season high ten targets. Roberts has three touchdowns so far but only one game with more than 55 yards when he posted 118 yards on six catches in the last home game when the Dolphins visited. Michael Floyd remains the #3 receiver though he is sharing with Early Doucet and neither produce enough for any fantasy merit.

Hard not to love a defense that has allowed 14 touchdowns to quarterbacks and three of the last four threw for 300+ yards. This should be another very nice game for Kolb who will be getting even less support from an already meager rushing effort. The Cardinals defense is a good play this week as well. If Williams Powell can go anything against anyone, it would be home versus the Bills who have allowed eight touchdowns to running backs. The last three opponents featured a running back with over 100 rushing yards when going against the Bills.

The Bills have allowed 97 over the past two weeks. Bound to be fantasy points generated in this game as well. I like a defensive score in this game as well.

Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 18 30 11 24 23 4
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 32 28 27 25 15 25

QB Carson Palmer, ARI CIN 0000025021 ***
It's a brutal matchup; the Bengals haven't allowed more than 263 passing yards in a game since Week 4 or multiple TD tosses in a game since Week 3. But after Palmer went to Seattle and dropped 363 and 3 on the Legion of Doom, are you going to doubt him?
RB Andre Ellington, ARI CIN 2003301000 **
Now that Bruce Arians has accepted the fact Ellington is best in small doses, he's using him effectively: five and a half touches per game since returning from injury, and a robust 8.6 yards per touch. Cincy is giving up 120 RB yards per road game, plenty of production for Ellington to carve out a low-end fantasy helper with upside.
RB Chris Johnson, ARI CIN 800000000 ***
Johnson continues to get the touches in Arizona, and against a Bengals defense that's allowing 120-plus RB yards from scrimmage per road game he's a viable fantasy option. But with Andre Ellington seeing spot duty--and playing better than Johnson at this juncture--there's a ceiling to CJ's upside.
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI CIN 006801000 **
You can push through against Cincy: every WR seeing double-digit targets against them has scored or topped 140 yards, or both. Fitz continues to see plenty of balls from Carson Palmer, and the Bengals won't keep him from his appointed rounds.
WR John Brown, ARI CIN 004500000 **
Brown remains sidelined by his troublesome hamstrings. We'll check back later in the week to see if he or Michael Floyd--or both, or neither--will be available for the Cards' second consecutive prime time game.

Update: Like Floyd, Brown is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury--though at least he got in some practice time this week, albeit on a limited basis. He's more likely to play Sunday night, but he's still a risk--especially since you may not know if he's even active until after Sunday's late games have started.
WR Jaron Brown, ARI CIN 003400000 ***
File the Cards' "other" Brown away as a possible plug-in if Michael Floyd and John Brown are sidelined by their hamstring issues.
TE Jermaine Gresham, ARI CIN 004500000 ***
Gresham still shares looks with Darren Fells and/or Troy Niklas. Facing a Bengals D that has yet to allow a TE TD on the year, no need to dig this deep.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI CIN 3322 ***
Temper optimism about Catanzaro's back-to-back games with double-digit points and four straight games of multiple field goals; the Bengals have allowed only one game north of seven points all season, none in the last five.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

a d v e r t i s e m e n t