The Huddle on Facebook Facebook   The Huddle on Twitter Twitter   The Huddle Mobile Mobile Welcome, Guest. You are not logged in.   | Login  |  Help
HOME FANTASY DRAFT KIT IN SEASON ARTICLES NEWS STATS FORUMS TEAMS PLAYERS NFL DRAFT NFL ABOUT TICKETS myHuddle

FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: DEN 24, SD 20 (Line: SD by 2.5)

Players Updated: Demaryius Thomas

Players to Watch: Ryan Mathews, Robert Meachem

The 2-3 Broncos have lost three of their last four games and both of the road trips so far. The 3-2 Chargers are at home only for the third time and are 1-1 in San Diego thanks to the Atlanta loss. The Chargers won 29-24 in Denver last year but later lost 13-16 when the Broncos were the visitors. This will be an interesting game that should contain decent fantasy points for each team.

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 31-19 10 @CAR -----
2 @ATL 21-27 11 SD -----
3 HOU 25-31 12 @KC -----
4 OAK 37-6 13 TB -----
5 @NE 21-31 14 @OAK -----
6 @SD ----- 15 @BAL -----
7 BYE ----- 16 CLE -----
8 NO ----- 17 KC -----
9 @CIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
DEN @ SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning 320,3
RB Willis McGahee 60 5-40
WR Eric Decker 6-70
WR Brandon Stokley 3-30
WR Demaryius Thomas 7-100,1
WR Wes Welker 7-80,1
TE Joel Dreessen 2-20
TE Jacob Tamme 5-40,1
PK Matt Prater 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Broncos are 2-3 but in fairness they opened with a brutal schedule and two of their losses came within one touchdown. This is clearly a better team with Peyton Manning as the quarterback and an offense that has always posted at least 21 points no matter how tough the opposing defense is. Manning is on a three game streak of 330+ yard games with two or three scores in each. He has thrown an interception in just one game so far. Manning is even showing decent arm strength on deeper throws to Demaryius Thomas.

Willis McGahee has been very productive other than in the Houston game. He has rushed for more than 100 yards twice. Better yet, he has been used as a receiver for five or six receptions in the last two games which ensures at least some fantasy value every week. McGahee ran for 125 yards against the visiting Chargers last year and 117 yards in San Diego. With a solid passing game under Manning, McGahee is enjoying one of his best years.

Joel Dreessen has never had more than 36 yards in a game this year but has scored in each of the last three. That's tough to rely on even for a bye week filler but pulling the hat trick with Peyton Manning as pitcher is an encouraging development. Jacob Tamme still gets more catches and yardage but so far has not scored since the season opener. Manning has thrown a score to a tight end in all but one game so far.

Eric Decker is sold enough in most games and has scored the last two weeks but tends to remain below 60 yards most of the time. Demaryius Thomas has become a true #1 and an elite wideout who has gained over 100 yards in three of five games and scored twice. His problem is that he has fumbled in each of the last three games but his talent is far beyond any other receiver here and down the field he is a deep threat with over 20 yards per catch in three different matchups. Brandon Stokley comes into play only against teams with two good corners.

Manning should light it up again against this secondary since the last three opponents have and that includes Matt Cassel. The rushing with McGahee may have a tougher time this year than in 2011 since no one has ran for more than 88 yards on them and that was Jamaal Charles playing in Kansas City but at least McGahee is catching passes as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 6 14 6 5 22 20
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 23 20 25 12 2 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Peyton Manning, DEN KC 0000029020 ***
The Chiefs' pass defense has actually been quite good, and in their earlier meeting with Denver Peyton managed "only" 285 yards and two TDs. View that as a baseline, with KC playing out the string and the Broncos looking to lock down a high seed. Manning has multiple touchdowns in every home game this season, three in each of the last five. Oh, and it's one more opportunity to state his MVP case, or at least Comeback Player of the Year candidacy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knowshon Moreno, DEN KC 10015300000 ***
When these teams met earlier in the year Moreno topped 100 combo yards, and he's in line for another solid showing. However, for all their foibles (and their losses) the Chiefs have only given up nine RB TDs on the year so settle for yardage while Peyton handles the scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Wes Welker, DEN KC 0081001000 ****
Welker always like playing his old team and racked up 12-103 and one score in Miami already. He is a must start this week and a lock for a decent game that could be big.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN KC 005801000 ***
Thomas scored in the earlier meeting with KC, has 82 yards or better in four of his last five games, and should be on the business end of a few exclamation points to the end of Peyton Manning's MVP candidacy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, DEN KC 006701000 ***
While Decker is tracking as a WR2 or maybe WR1B to Demaryius Thomas, he's scored thrice in the past two games and is still a fantasy factor--especially with the Broncos needing to win for playoff seeding purposes and Peyton Manning needing to bolster his MVP case.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Stokley, DEN KC 004400000 ***
Stokley's 62 yards in the Week 12 meeting with KC is his high-yardage mark over the past three months, but he hasn't scored in more than a month and even with Peyton Manning making a push for MVP is an iffy play at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Joel Dreessen, DEN KC 003300000 ***
Dreessen has scored more recently, but Jacob Tamme found the end zone the last time Denver faced the Chiefs. So both--or neither--are good fantasy plays this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jacob Tamme, DEN KC 002200000 ***
Tamme tends to be the more productive member of Denver's TEBC, and he did score in the earlier meeting with the Chiefs. However, he was out-targeted by Joel Dreessen last week and has been outscored by Dreessen over the past month so there's no clear horse to back in this race.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DEN KC 1133 ***
Denver has 26 points or more in nine of their last 10 games--30 or more in eight of those, so there will be opportunities for Prater to swing the leg. Add in the rarified air for distance and Denver's desire to win and Prater is as solid a fantasy kicking option as you'll find this week.

San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @OAK 22-14 10 @TB -----
2 TEN 38-10 11 @DEN -----
3 ATL 3-27 12 BAL -----
4 @KC 37-20 13 CIN -----
5 @NO 24-31 14 @PIT -----
6 DEN ----- 15 CAR -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @NYJ -----
8 @CLE ----- 17 OAK -----
9 KC ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SD vs DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers 260,1
RB Ronnie Brown 5-50
RB Ryan Mathews 90,1 5-50,1
RB Danny Woodhead 10 4-20
WR Malcom Floyd 4-50
WR Robert Meachem 3-40
TE Antonio Gates 3-50
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Chargers fell in New Orleans but still put up a good game. This week will be the toughest matchup of the year other than the big loss to Atlanta since the Broncos have pushed through a far tougher schedule. Consider too that the Chargers lost 3-27 when the Falcons visited and yet the Broncos barely lost 21-27 at Atlanta.

Philip Rivers comes off a season high 354 yards and two scores in New Orleans (where everyone has a season high). He has thrown eight touchdowns over five weeks against five interceptions but that came against teams like OAK, TEN, KC and NO. Against the Falcons, Rivers only passed for 173 yards and no score. Unless Robert Meachem can prove his effort against his old team was more than a fluke, Rivers is trying to make-do with below average receivers.

Jackie Battle started the Saints game because HC Norv Turner has clearly lost his mind. Battle was shelved after his four runs covered a whopping ten yards. Ryan Mathews was only given 12 runs but gained 80 yards and one touchdown along with 59 yards on six receptions. Still - the Chargers preferred Ronnie Brown on obvious passing downs and the old man gained 47 yards on five catches he had no business taking away from Mathews. Turner has now said that Mathews will be more heavily used because after a few years he has just now learned whatever lesson there was to learn by watching inferior players hurt the Chargers chance to win (?). Turner said he expected Mathews would be one of the leading rushers in the NFL and yet would not elaborate on why that needed to wait until week six to start in earnest. At least this eliminates Battle from the projections.

Ryan has rushed for over 120 yards in all three career games against the Broncos. Why not give him a chance?

The Player Formerly Known as Antonio Gates has not scored this year. Has only one game with more than three catches of more than 43 yards. He is being heavily covered as he has always been only now he has lost the speed and any moves. Understand this much about Gates - he just went through the easiest part of his schedule.

Robert Meachem was able to score twice and gain 67 yards on three catches back in his old home stadium in New Orleans, but it's hardly the breakout two scores suggest. Meachem was only thrown four passes and his five game career with the Chargers now totals nine catches for 159 yards. That includes two games with no catches.

Malcom Floyd is the only player with any sense of consistent production but has not scored since the season opener and his two decent games came against the Saints and Titans - two of the worst secondaries in the NFL. This is a receiver crew that sorely misses having a real #1 threat like Vincent Jackson. Vincent Brown returns in a month but until he is back and healthy this is an offense that has to spread the ball around and throw to the running backs.

Playing at home will help this week but the Broncos have been solid against the pass even when facing Matt Ryan or Tom Brady. Ryan Mathews should be central to the offensive effort and the Broncos weakest point is against the run.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 21 3 29 19 8 15
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 18 18 17 18 12 14

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Philip Rivers, SD OAK 0000022020 ****
Rivers started the year with 231 yards and one score in Oakland. He's been light on the yardage all year and more so here at the end. But the Raiders always allow at least one passing score if not three. Look for just a moderate game here that mostly depends on finding Danario Alexander open.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jackie Battle, SD OAK 5001100000 **
Battle is never a good risk but he'll start this week and get the most touches. The Raiders rushing defense has been solid though and Battle has never scored this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ronnie Brown, SD OAK 2004200000 ****
Brown fills in for third downs but hasn't totaled more than 40 yards in the last six weeks and never scored this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Danario Alexander, SD OAK 006901000 ****
Alexander has become the only decent fantasy play for the Chargers though he is not above a bad game as we saw two weeks ago. The Raiders have allowed five TDs to the position in just the most recent three road games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Antonio Gates, SD OAK 003301000 **
Gates won't do much for yardage anymore but he is a decent risk for a touchdown this week. He'll want to end well anyway and the Raiders give up more to TEs on the road anyway.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Novak, SD OAK 3322 ***
At home versus the Raiders should be no worse than average points.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

a d v e r t i s e m e n t