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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: DET 23, PHI 27 (Line: PHI by 5)

Updated Player: Titus Young

Players to Watch: Mikel Leshoure, Michael Vick

The 1-3 Lions come off their bye having last lost to the visiting Vikings in a game that signals this is no longer 2011. The Eagles are 3-2 and 2-0 at home though they have struggled to score any points and have been held to fewer than 20 in all but one game. The Lions on the road are likely to lose this one because quite simply they turned back into a pumpkin after a magical 2011 season.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN -----
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB -----
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU -----
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI ----- 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI ----- 16 ATL -----
8 SEA ----- 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 250,2
RB Joique Bell 10 5-40
RB Reggie Bush 90,1 5-30
RB Mikel Leshoure 50 4-30
WR Nate Burleson 3-40,1
WR Calvin Johnson 6-90,1
TE Brandon Pettigrew 3-30
TE Tony Scheffler 3-30
PK David Akers 2 FG 3 XP
PK Jason Hanson 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Lions get the short straw this year with an early bye and now four road games in the next five weeks. There is nothing easy about the Lions schedule and the only game that might be considered soft is against the Colts who are getting better. Otherwise - this is a very tough slate of games left to play.

Matt Stafford is probably not going to throw for 5000 yards this year. Not unless they change the rules and let him play with no defense on the field. Because Stafford only has thee passing touchdowns on the year against four interceptions. Not unlike Tony Romo, he has the yardage and already topped 300 yards twice. But the scores are just not there.

All the upcoming road games are going to make the ineffective rushing attack look even worse. Kevin Smith has dropped so far that he hasn't had a touch since week two. Mikel Leshoure was great in the Titans game but only managed 26 yards on 13 runs against the Vikings. He has turned in four receptions for around 35 yards both weeks to salvage some fantasy value but this offense needs a home game against a soft defense to hope that Leshoure can play a significant role. Chances are pretty good he won't look any better by the time November rolls around.

Calvin Johnson was handled by the Vikings but otherwise he has been a stud with 90+ yards in all other games. He has just one score this year though. Nate Burleson remains just a mediocre #2 and Titus Young only has one catch per game other than the Tennessee tilt. Johnson is the only wideout that matters and he is getting little help from the others.

Brandon Pettigrew has offered moderate consistnecy with around 60 or 70 yards per week but has only scored once. Pettigrew has also been dropping passes in recent games as well.

Last year was the aberation because these Lions are back to the same problems. No passing game beyond Calvin Johnson a and a decreasing ability to score. The defense that was so surprising in 2011 has yet to hold anyone to under 20 points.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 7 8 10 3 1 30
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 4 12 13 6 25 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET CHI 0000032012 ***
Stafford needs 305 yards to crack the 5,000-yard mark, and Calvin Johnson is 108 shy of 2,000. The Lions already throw plenty anyway, here's one more reason to throw the ball even more. What else does Detroit have to play for?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mikel Leshoure, DET CHI 401000000 ***
Leshoure has scored in five of six, capitalizing on Calvin Johnson's inability to find the end zone. But the Bears have been stingy to opposing backs, giving up just six RB rushing scores on the year. Add in Joique Bell stealing looks--especially in the passing game, which constitutes the bulk of the Lions' game plan--and Leshoure is a difficult fantasy start this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Reggie Bush, DET CHI 6002200000 ****
Bush only gained 64 yards in the home game against the Pats but scored twice as a receiver last week against the Bills. The Pats have never allowed any runner to gain more than 83 yards in New England and it is less likely Bush will run in a score this time than last.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joique Bell, DET CHI 006500000 ***
Bell might roll up some yardage as the Lions' third down/passing situation back, but there's limited fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Johnson, DET CHI 00121600000 ***
Da Bears held Megatron to three catches on 11 targets in the earlier meeting, but the two guys who picked up his slack--Titus Young and Ryan Broyles--are both out of the mix. CJ needs 108 yards to become CJ2K; over the past five he's averaged 17 targets, 10 catches, and 155 yards, so that mark is a given. Just don't expect a touchdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kris Durham, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Seriously, this is the best wingman the Lions can come up with? Everything's going to Megatron regardless of whether or not he's covered, no reason to think Durham suddenly becomes a competent receiver in Week 17 against a Bears team that needs to win.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tony Scheffler, DET CHI 004501000 ***
With Brandon Pettigrew nicked Scheffler becomes the lead dog in the Lions' TEBC, but now he's sharing with Will Heller. Against a Bears D that hasn't allowed a TE TD in a month and only surrendered four all year, a half share isn't enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Heller, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Heller steps into Tony Scheffler's role now that Scheffler has taken on Brandon Pettigrew's duties. Meh.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K David Akers, DET CHI 2133 ***
Akers at home won't get skunked but may only kick extra points this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Hanson, DET CHI 2122 ***
The Lions probably can't send Hanson out a winner, but they could at least let him kick a couple for old time's sake.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET ----- 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL ----- 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 30 250,2
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 5-30
WR Jason Avant 3-30
WR DeSean Jackson 4-60,1
WR Jeremy Maclin 4-50
TE Brent Celek 6-70,1
PK Alex Henery 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Eagles have been in four games all decided by three points or less and only lost the Pittsburgh game. That is living right but a scary proposition to continue to struggle offensively. Michael Vick has not thrown an interception since the six he had in the first two weeks abut once again last week he lost two fumbles. With games that are always nailbiters each week, losing the ball a total of 11 times in five games makes the 3-2 record a surprise.

VIck has passed for at least one score in all but one game but his passing yardage has really waned. He posted two 300+ yard efforts to start the year and now he cannot get past 240 yards. Against the Steelers he only managed 175 yards. Vick is also not running much which has really hurt his fantasy value and contributuion to the team. The good news is that he has been better at home than on the road and faces a weaker team finally. It ends up going against BAL, ARI, NYG and PIT was not the easiest opening for a season.

Vick sustained a knee contusion against the Steelers but it is not expected to be a problem in this game.

LeSean McCoy was a touchdown machine last year but so far has just one rushing touchdown and another one as a reciever. Again - his best games other than in Cleveland were the two homestands versus the Ravens and Giants. McCoy is not sharing the ball and he gets whatever is there to get. But so far he is off his 2011 pace and has a glaring lack of touchdowns. McCoy's knee was swollen after the game last week but he is expected to be fine this week and the knee will not be an issue.

Brent Celek scored last week in Pittsbriugh but only turned in three catches for nine yards. He has been at his best in home games so far but only against better defenses that limit the wideouts. That is less likely this week.

Where the decline in offense is pronounced is with the wide receivers. DeSean Jackson scored only once so far and two of his last three games were under 60 yard. Jeremy Maclin has been hampered by a sore hip from back in week two and after sitting out in week three, he has been a non-factor in games. Maclin started the year with a score in both games but has returned nothing to fantasy owners since.

The Eagles at home should be able to handle the Lions without too much trouble and hopefully break their constant trend to remain within three points to all opponents. The Lions rank decent enough against the fantasy positions but have only faced STL, SF, TEN and MIN. This should be a good win.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 15 23 19 9 24 29
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 11 6 11 27 30 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, PHI @NYG 30100026012 ***
Nick Foles heads to IR with a broken hand, putting Vick back in the driver's seat. He threw for 241 and 1 in the earlier meeting with the Giants, mixing in 49 rushing yards as well; look for him to build on those numbers in this audition for whatever team he'll be quarterbacking in 2013. And since Vick is most impressive when running the ball, a rushing score wouldn't surprise this week--nor would a bigger yardage total, seeing as similarly mobile RG3 took the Giants for 161 yards in two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @NYG 9015300000 ***
McCoy's 122 combo yards last week certainly suggest he's back to full go, which is especially good news this week seeing as he rushed for 123 yards in the earlier meeting with the Giants. And considering New York allowed two 100-yard rushers last week alone, McCoy should be in line for another productive outing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @NYG 006701000 ***
DeSean Jackson inflicted the damage in the earlier meeting with the Giants while Maclin was held to one catch for seven yards, but DJax ain't around this time and Maclin has been Philly's go-to guy over the past month. Michael Vick knows where to find him as well, so expect Maclin to lead the charge in Philly's passing game this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jason Avant, PHI @NYG 004600000 ***
Avant has double-digit targets in two of the last three games, stepping up in the absence of DeSean Jackson. Jackson was Philly's go-to guy in the earlier meeting with the Giants, so if they focus on shutting down Jeremy Maclin again it could be a nice opportunity for Maclin. Even if Avant plays wingman, a date with a Giants' secondary that's allowed 20 WR TDs on the year and six wideouts to top 74 yards in the past month should provide reasonably lucrative.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Riley Cooper, PHI @NYG 002200000 ***
Cooper's contributions have been too inconsistent to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brent Celek, PHI @NYG 005500000 ***
Celek had a comfort level with Michael Vick earlier in the season, including 57 yards in the previous meeting with the Giants. Big Blue has allowed 170 yards and a TD to the position over the past three games, so Celek certainly feels in line for another solid yardage game with the possibility of a score.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Alex Henery, PHI @NYG 2133 ***
Henery has multiple field goals in two straight and five of the last six, and he booted a season-high four treys in the previous meeting with the Giants. New York has allowed multiple field goals in three straight, a total of eight in that span. So maybe Henery sends Andy Reid out not with a bang but with a bunch of field goals.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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