Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: IND 17, NYJ 23 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Clyde Gates, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill

Players to Watch: Dustin Keller

The 2-2 Colts hit the road in only their second game away from home. The Jets come off their Monday night loss and have a shorter week but most players were already injured and on the sideline anyway. The difference in this game will be only the second time that the Colts have left home. They have played the last three games at Indy all were close matches but the Jets are getting desperate and Andy Luck is taking the car on the road for only the second time.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 180,1
QB Andrew Luck 10 280,2
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60 4-30
RB Frank Gore 100,1 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-40
WR Andre Johnson 4-70,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers helps cement the growing legend of Andrew Luck. Granted, three games came at home but he has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. This was done while using his best two receivers Reggie and Wayne. Luck even added a rushing score last week and gains 20+ yards as a runner because he can. Luck has been a tremendous pick by the Colts who now only need to get him some legitimate talent for receivers instead of making him work so hard at it.

Donald Brown was able to run for a season high 84 yards last week when the Packers gave up a couple of big gainers but this week will be the second time Brown has been on the road. He rushed for 48 yards on nine runs in Chicago back in the opener. Brown has not been given more than 18 runs in a game and has minimal if any receptions each week. Vick Ballard gets half a dozen carries too though he never produces more than around two yards per carry. Oddly enough, the lone rushing touchdown came in the Chicago opener.

Luck is already impressive mixing receivers each week. Dwayne Allen now has two touchdowns and nine catches in the last two games. Coby Fleener was quiet for two weeks and then turned in 41 yards on five catches against the Packers. The fantasy value here is marginal at best and since it teeters between two players, there is no need to play a guessing game each week.

Reggie Wayne is on his way to a record shattering season and that means he will slow down at some point sadly. So far Wayne has been phenomenal. He has been thrown 50 passes for 36 catches and 506 yards. That is in four games. A pace that would project out to 156 catches for 2024 yards. Probably not going to happen but Wayne has been the best wideout value this year by a mile. Both T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery have produced 100 yard games and yet minimal yardage in the other weeks. The key to the Colts offense is that Luck only throws two kinds of passes. One goes to Wayne and the other is distributed nearly randomly.

No arguing that Luck and Wayne have been huge surprises but this is only the second game away and that should make a difference. The Jets put up a good fight with the Texans last week and so far no one on the Colts has been confused with Arian Foster.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 28 4 10 20 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 3 19 22 18

QB Matt Hasselbeck, IND TB 0000027021 ***
Six of the last seven quarterbacks to face the Bucs have tallied multiple touchdowns, and Matt Cassel barely counts. Hasselbeck has tossed two TDs in each of his last two games and seems a safe bet to continue that trend here.
RB Frank Gore, IND TB 6001100000 *
Gore out-touched Ahmad Bradshaw last week yet Bradshaw's two TDs made him the more productive fantasy back. Tampa Bay's run D has tightened up, but they've been susceptible to pass-catching backs so Gore should salvage value there--though again Bradshaw's two TDs both came on receptions so there's a limit to his upside.
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND TB 2003200000 *
Bradshaw is the junior member of Indy's backfield tandem, but he's scored three receiving TDs in the past two weeks and is better suited to exploiting a Bucs D that's allowed two 60-yard RB receivers and two RB receiving TDs in the past month.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND TB 004501000 **
Moncrief was Indy's most targeted wideout last week, but he's caught a total of 12 balls in three games with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, totaling 119 yards. Tampa's secondary has been playing significantly better since they swapped out their cornerbacks, so don't look for big things from Moncrief this week.
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND TB 006700000 ***
Hilton hasn't scored with Matt Hasselbeck under center, and his targets have declined each game under the backup QB. Tampa's pass D has been better of late, and Indy's receiving corps under Hass has been nowhere near as productive as when they were Luck-led so temper expectations accordingly.
WR Andre Johnson, IND TB 003400000 ***
Johnson had one big game with Hasselbeck at quarterback, 6-77-2 against his former team, but he's been nonexistent in the other two tilts. Can't bank on him in a surprisingly tough matchup against an improving Bucs secondary.
TE Coby Fleener, IND TB 006601000 **
It'll take a ton of targets to make a TE fantasy-relevant against Tampa Bay; three tight ends each with double-digit targets have accounted for three of the four TDs and all three games north of 45 yards. Such targets aren't out of the question for Fleener, as he saw such a workload in Matt Hasselbeck's first start this season in place of Andrew Luck. So we're sayin' there's a chance.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND TB 3322 ***
Vinny's been merely ordinary thus far, and the combo of a backup quarterback and an improving Bucs defense hardly seems the impetus for change.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 210,1
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
RB Stevan Ridley 60 3
WR Eric Decker 6-70
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets fell short against the Texans as expected but put up a far better fight than anticipated along with a defense that played better in every facet other than stopping Arian Foster which we cannot be sure is even possible. This is a home game before heading to New England for a certain spanking. The Jets have to win this one or the New York media will have their collective heads explode.

Mark Sanchez continues to be supported in each post game press conference which alone says there is a problem. Sanchez has not completed 50% of his passes for the last four games and has six touchdowns against six interceptions only thanks to the opener against the Bills inflating his stats. Sanchez has thrown just two scores against five interceptions over the last three games. Tim Tebow only threw for one incompletion against the Texans and rushed five times for 19 yards. He's still just a gimmick as he was when he ran a fake punt for a first down. The passing game here is doing little from a lack of healthy receivers.

Newest on the injury report is Clyde Gates who comes off a career best game with one catch for 27 yards but popped his shoulder out of place in the process. Chaz Schilens started the game but only produced four catches for 29 yards and Jeremy Kerley has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. He ended with 94 yards on five catches last Monday but had just two receptions in each of the three previous games. This crew has devolved to such a bad level that Antonio Cromartie is getting reps at wideout. You half expect him to run backwards and intercept Sanchez.

Jeff Cumberland scored for the first time in his three year career and his 51 yards on two receptions shattered his previous best of 33 yards in a game. Dustin Keller expects to return from the hamstring strain that has bothered him since preseason and kept him out the last four weeks. If you are looking for a tight end in a really large league, Keller might be worth a look.

The rushing effort remains a mess with HC Rex Ryan still saying that Shonn Greene is the man (8-26) even though he used both Bilal Powell (4-18) and Joe McKnight (4-5). This remains the worst set of running backs in the league. Dead last. Jonathan Grimes is the only one left that has yet to show how bad he is and was active last week for the first time as a Jet though he never played.

The Colts on the road should be more accommodating than the Texans to be sure. But there is a lack of talent here to expect anything more than a moderate showing by the offense that is just good enough to get a sorely needed win. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the league and that is bound to help.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 32 20 26 25 7
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 23 28 1 18 11

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ MIA 0000023021 ***
Since a dismal 218 and 1 against Miami in Week 4 Fitzpatrick has tallied multiple touchdowns in all six games he's finished. However, sans beard and with a tough matchup in front of him fantasy expectations are tempered this week.
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ MIA 9003200000 **
Ivory gouged the Dolphins for 166 yards and a score back in Week 4, but he's just one of eight backs who have amassed triple-digit combo yardage against Miami over the past two months; they've also allowed a dozen RB TDs in that span. That sets up well for a repeat performance from Ivory this week.
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ MIA 2002200000 ***
Powell was leap-frogged by Zac Stacy in the previous meeting with Miami, and Stacy found the end zone as the Jets ravaged the Dolphins on the ground. Powell also handled pass-catching duties last week to the tune of 5-67; between Chris Ivory's leftovers and Powell's existing pass-catching duties there's a low-end fantasy helper here.
WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ MIA 007801000 ***
The Dolphins haven't given up legit fantasy helpers to multiple wideouts in the same game since Marshall and Eric Decker turned the trick in the earlier meeting. He's scored or topped 100 yards in every game but one this season, including 128 in the first game against Miami; no reason to doubt him here.
WR Eric Decker, NYJ MIA 006801000 ***
Decker's been the consummate wingman, with touchdowns in seven of nine and at least 80 yards in his two non-scoring outings. That run includes 46 and a score against Miami in the earlier meeting; if he did it once, he can do it again.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, NYJ MIA 1133 ***
Bullock's been good for a couple five-point games since taking over for the injured Nick Folk--equalling Folks' low mark on the year. Tough to see him doing much more against a Miami defense that's held five of their last six opponents to one field goal or less.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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