Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: IND 17, NYJ 23 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Clyde Gates, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill

Players to Watch: Dustin Keller

The 2-2 Colts hit the road in only their second game away from home. The Jets come off their Monday night loss and have a shorter week but most players were already injured and on the sideline anyway. The difference in this game will be only the second time that the Colts have left home. They have played the last three games at Indy all were close matches but the Jets are getting desperate and Andy Luck is taking the car on the road for only the second time.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 180,1
QB Andrew Luck 10 280,2
RB Frank Gore 100,1 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-40
WR Andre Johnson 4-70,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers helps cement the growing legend of Andrew Luck. Granted, three games came at home but he has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. This was done while using his best two receivers Reggie and Wayne. Luck even added a rushing score last week and gains 20+ yards as a runner because he can. Luck has been a tremendous pick by the Colts who now only need to get him some legitimate talent for receivers instead of making him work so hard at it.

Donald Brown was able to run for a season high 84 yards last week when the Packers gave up a couple of big gainers but this week will be the second time Brown has been on the road. He rushed for 48 yards on nine runs in Chicago back in the opener. Brown has not been given more than 18 runs in a game and has minimal if any receptions each week. Vick Ballard gets half a dozen carries too though he never produces more than around two yards per carry. Oddly enough, the lone rushing touchdown came in the Chicago opener.

Luck is already impressive mixing receivers each week. Dwayne Allen now has two touchdowns and nine catches in the last two games. Coby Fleener was quiet for two weeks and then turned in 41 yards on five catches against the Packers. The fantasy value here is marginal at best and since it teeters between two players, there is no need to play a guessing game each week.

Reggie Wayne is on his way to a record shattering season and that means he will slow down at some point sadly. So far Wayne has been phenomenal. He has been thrown 50 passes for 36 catches and 506 yards. That is in four games. A pace that would project out to 156 catches for 2024 yards. Probably not going to happen but Wayne has been the best wideout value this year by a mile. Both T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery have produced 100 yard games and yet minimal yardage in the other weeks. The key to the Colts offense is that Luck only throws two kinds of passes. One goes to Wayne and the other is distributed nearly randomly.

No arguing that Luck and Wayne have been huge surprises but this is only the second game away and that should make a difference. The Jets put up a good fight with the Texans last week and so far no one on the Colts has been confused with Arian Foster.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 28 4 10 20 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 3 19 22 18

QB Andrew Luck, IND JAC 20000030021 ***
With rumors swirling about a shoulder injury and Luck having struggled somewhat this season he's hardly a lock here. But he's also been consistently around 250 yards and has multiple TDs in two of three. So the upside isn't there, but the floor is pretty high as well.

Update: Luck has been limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable. Matt Hasselbeck would get the start if Luck can't go. Sounds like this is a Sunday morning decision, so stay tuned.
RB Frank Gore, IND JAC 7011100000 ***
Gore finally broke out last week with a pair of touchdowns and an Indy-high 94 yards from scrimmage. The Jags were gashed by New England's Lewis/Blount tag-team, setting the stage for what should be another solid outing for Gore.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND JAC 006801000 ***
Moncrief has asserted himself as a solid wingman to TY Hilton, as well as a red zone presence and consistent scoring threat. In short, he's been everything the Colts thought they were buying in Andre Johnson--only better.
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND JAC 0081100000 ***
Hilton has come back to the pack a bit as far as Indy's wideout rotation is concerned, but he's still the most dynamic option and has a very nice track record against the Jags: 4-122-1, 5-80, 11-155 in his past three meetings.
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND JAC 002501000 ***
At this point Andre Johnson is persona non grata, opening the door for the first-round pick to see more looks. Dorsett scored last week, but he's a bit risky for a fantasy play even given the favorable matchup.
TE Coby Fleener, IND JAC 003200000 ***
Fleener has upside so long as Dwayne Allen remains sidelined, but Indy has moved away from the tight ends so he's a fringe fantasy factor at best.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND JAC 3233 ****
It's not all on the Indy offense; Vinatieri's had his own struggles this season as well. Gotta think a home date with the Jaguars gets him back on track.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 210,1
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
RB Stevan Ridley 60 3
WR Eric Decker 6-70
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets fell short against the Texans as expected but put up a far better fight than anticipated along with a defense that played better in every facet other than stopping Arian Foster which we cannot be sure is even possible. This is a home game before heading to New England for a certain spanking. The Jets have to win this one or the New York media will have their collective heads explode.

Mark Sanchez continues to be supported in each post game press conference which alone says there is a problem. Sanchez has not completed 50% of his passes for the last four games and has six touchdowns against six interceptions only thanks to the opener against the Bills inflating his stats. Sanchez has thrown just two scores against five interceptions over the last three games. Tim Tebow only threw for one incompletion against the Texans and rushed five times for 19 yards. He's still just a gimmick as he was when he ran a fake punt for a first down. The passing game here is doing little from a lack of healthy receivers.

Newest on the injury report is Clyde Gates who comes off a career best game with one catch for 27 yards but popped his shoulder out of place in the process. Chaz Schilens started the game but only produced four catches for 29 yards and Jeremy Kerley has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. He ended with 94 yards on five catches last Monday but had just two receptions in each of the three previous games. This crew has devolved to such a bad level that Antonio Cromartie is getting reps at wideout. You half expect him to run backwards and intercept Sanchez.

Jeff Cumberland scored for the first time in his three year career and his 51 yards on two receptions shattered his previous best of 33 yards in a game. Dustin Keller expects to return from the hamstring strain that has bothered him since preseason and kept him out the last four weeks. If you are looking for a tight end in a really large league, Keller might be worth a look.

The rushing effort remains a mess with HC Rex Ryan still saying that Shonn Greene is the man (8-26) even though he used both Bilal Powell (4-18) and Joe McKnight (4-5). This remains the worst set of running backs in the league. Dead last. Jonathan Grimes is the only one left that has yet to show how bad he is and was active last week for the first time as a Jet though he never played.

The Colts on the road should be more accommodating than the Texans to be sure. But there is a lack of talent here to expect anything more than a moderate showing by the offense that is just good enough to get a sorely needed win. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the league and that is bound to help.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 32 20 26 25 7
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 23 28 1 18 11

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ @MIA 0000025021 ***
Fitz has been a steady fantasy contributor with increasing yardage totals, while Miami's pass defense has been more friendly with each subsequent week, giving up an average of 250 and 2 to the likes of Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles, and Tyrod Taylor. Fitz is just as nondescript as that group; no reason to think he can't pin another solid effort on the reeling Dolphins this week.
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @MIA 8011100000 ***
Great opportunity for Ivory against a defense that's allowed Alfred Morris and Karlos Williams to top 100 yards against them already this season. If he's healthy enough--to actually play, this time--he belongs in your lineup.
WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ @MIA 0081002000 ***
The Dolphins' secondary hasn't stopped anyone thus far, so no reason Marshall can't make it four-for-four in games with a touchdown and tack on a third straight 100-yard effort.
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @MIA 006700000 ***
The Jets could be diving deep into their receiver rotation with Chris Owusu out and Eric Decker iffy. Should that be the case, Enunwa would battle Devin Smith and Jeremy Kerley for wingman looks opposite Brandon Marshall. As a collective there will be fantasy value, but good luck deciphering which player will claim the larger share.
WR Devin Smith, NYJ @MIA 004600000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @MIA 1133 ***
Vegas doesn't expect much scoring in this one, so no reason to reach for Folk here.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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