Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: IND 17, NYJ 23 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Clyde Gates, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill

Players to Watch: Dustin Keller

The 2-2 Colts hit the road in only their second game away from home. The Jets come off their Monday night loss and have a shorter week but most players were already injured and on the sideline anyway. The difference in this game will be only the second time that the Colts have left home. They have played the last three games at Indy all were close matches but the Jets are getting desperate and Andy Luck is taking the car on the road for only the second time.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 180,1
QB Andrew Luck 10 280,2
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60 4-30
RB Frank Gore 100,1 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-40
WR Andre Johnson 4-70,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers helps cement the growing legend of Andrew Luck. Granted, three games came at home but he has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. This was done while using his best two receivers Reggie and Wayne. Luck even added a rushing score last week and gains 20+ yards as a runner because he can. Luck has been a tremendous pick by the Colts who now only need to get him some legitimate talent for receivers instead of making him work so hard at it.

Donald Brown was able to run for a season high 84 yards last week when the Packers gave up a couple of big gainers but this week will be the second time Brown has been on the road. He rushed for 48 yards on nine runs in Chicago back in the opener. Brown has not been given more than 18 runs in a game and has minimal if any receptions each week. Vick Ballard gets half a dozen carries too though he never produces more than around two yards per carry. Oddly enough, the lone rushing touchdown came in the Chicago opener.

Luck is already impressive mixing receivers each week. Dwayne Allen now has two touchdowns and nine catches in the last two games. Coby Fleener was quiet for two weeks and then turned in 41 yards on five catches against the Packers. The fantasy value here is marginal at best and since it teeters between two players, there is no need to play a guessing game each week.

Reggie Wayne is on his way to a record shattering season and that means he will slow down at some point sadly. So far Wayne has been phenomenal. He has been thrown 50 passes for 36 catches and 506 yards. That is in four games. A pace that would project out to 156 catches for 2024 yards. Probably not going to happen but Wayne has been the best wideout value this year by a mile. Both T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery have produced 100 yard games and yet minimal yardage in the other weeks. The key to the Colts offense is that Luck only throws two kinds of passes. One goes to Wayne and the other is distributed nearly randomly.

No arguing that Luck and Wayne have been huge surprises but this is only the second game away and that should make a difference. The Jets put up a good fight with the Texans last week and so far no one on the Colts has been confused with Arian Foster.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 28 4 10 20 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 3 19 22 18

QB Matt Hasselbeck, IND @ATL 0000024010 ***
Hasselbeck was effective but hardly prolific in his two earlier starts. A date with a Falcons defense that has allowed only one multi-touchdown passer in the past five games won't do him any favors.
RB Frank Gore, IND @ATL 6013200000 ***
Atlanta hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher... but they've given up 10 RB rushing scores, and they've allowed five different backs to catch at least six passes. With Gore being a goal line guy and a pass catcher, he should be able to carve out fantasy value even without a big rushing day.
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @ATL 006800000 ***
The Falcons have not been an easy fantasy matchup, surrendering just three WR TDs on the year. Plus the Colts will have a backup QB throwing, though Hilton was Matt Hasselbeck's most targeted receiver during his previous starting stint. Hilton didn't score in two games with Hass at the helm, but he averaged 80-plus yards and warrants a fantasy play this week.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND @ATL 004500000 ***
Moncrief could excel out of Indy's WR2 spot. He scored in one of Matt Hasselbeck's earlier start and topped 75 yards in the other, so the change in quarterback shouldn't significantly ding his fantasy value.
TE Coby Fleener, IND @ATL 004501000 ***
It's a favorable matchup with an Atlanta defense that's given up TE TDs in two straight and five of six, as well as 75-plus TE yards in three of the last four. But Fleener is one of three Colts tight ends seeing targets. The good news is, with Matt Hasselbeck under center Fleener saw 18 targets for 13-134-1--easily his most productive two-game stretch this season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @ATL 2222 ***
Vinatieri has been better of late, and he was more than solid with 19 points in Matt Hasselbeck's two previous starts. The Falcons served up 11 kicker points in their last home game, wouldn't be a shock if Vinny approached that number here.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 210,1
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
RB Stevan Ridley 60 3
WR Eric Decker 6-70
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets fell short against the Texans as expected but put up a far better fight than anticipated along with a defense that played better in every facet other than stopping Arian Foster which we cannot be sure is even possible. This is a home game before heading to New England for a certain spanking. The Jets have to win this one or the New York media will have their collective heads explode.

Mark Sanchez continues to be supported in each post game press conference which alone says there is a problem. Sanchez has not completed 50% of his passes for the last four games and has six touchdowns against six interceptions only thanks to the opener against the Bills inflating his stats. Sanchez has thrown just two scores against five interceptions over the last three games. Tim Tebow only threw for one incompletion against the Texans and rushed five times for 19 yards. He's still just a gimmick as he was when he ran a fake punt for a first down. The passing game here is doing little from a lack of healthy receivers.

Newest on the injury report is Clyde Gates who comes off a career best game with one catch for 27 yards but popped his shoulder out of place in the process. Chaz Schilens started the game but only produced four catches for 29 yards and Jeremy Kerley has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. He ended with 94 yards on five catches last Monday but had just two receptions in each of the three previous games. This crew has devolved to such a bad level that Antonio Cromartie is getting reps at wideout. You half expect him to run backwards and intercept Sanchez.

Jeff Cumberland scored for the first time in his three year career and his 51 yards on two receptions shattered his previous best of 33 yards in a game. Dustin Keller expects to return from the hamstring strain that has bothered him since preseason and kept him out the last four weeks. If you are looking for a tight end in a really large league, Keller might be worth a look.

The rushing effort remains a mess with HC Rex Ryan still saying that Shonn Greene is the man (8-26) even though he used both Bilal Powell (4-18) and Joe McKnight (4-5). This remains the worst set of running backs in the league. Dead last. Jonathan Grimes is the only one left that has yet to show how bad he is and was active last week for the first time as a Jet though he never played.

The Colts on the road should be more accommodating than the Texans to be sure. But there is a lack of talent here to expect anything more than a moderate showing by the offense that is just good enough to get a sorely needed win. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the league and that is bound to help.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 32 20 26 25 7
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 23 28 1 18 11

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ @HOU 20000025021 *
Fitz has a steady two scores in four straight games he's finished and seven of eight overall. Houston has pitched a pair of shutouts, one impressive (Andy Dalton) and one not (Zach Mettenberger). Before that they gave up nine scores in three games, so it's unlikely they keep Fitz from his appointed rounds.
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @HOU 4002200000 ***
Ivory has had one fantasy downer in the last six games, and while this isn't a particularly easy matchup he's seeing enough volume to carve out another fantasy helper in Houston.
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @HOU 006601000 ***
The perfect wingman, Decker hasn't topped 100 yards yet this season--but he's been north of 60 in four straight and scored in seven of eight. Houston has let multiple receivers score or top 60 yards in five games this season, and the Jets' WR tandem is talented enough to make that six.
WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ @HOU 004501000 ***
The Texans are no pushover matchup, but they also aren't likely to stop Marshall from extending his run of scoring or topping 100 yards to a robust nine times in 10 games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, NYJ @HOU 2222 ***
Bullock tallied a mere five points in his first game in place of Nick Folk, and a date with a Texans defense that hasn't allowed a double-digit kicking game all season won't raise the bar any higher.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

a d v e r t i s e m e n t