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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: IND 17, NYJ 23 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Clyde Gates, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill

Players to Watch: Dustin Keller

The 2-2 Colts hit the road in only their second game away from home. The Jets come off their Monday night loss and have a shorter week but most players were already injured and on the sideline anyway. The difference in this game will be only the second time that the Colts have left home. They have played the last three games at Indy all were close matches but the Jets are getting desperate and Andy Luck is taking the car on the road for only the second time.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 180,1
QB Andrew Luck 10 280,2
RB Vick Ballard 60 2-10
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60 4-30
RB Trent Richardson 80,1 8-60
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-40
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne 8-100,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers helps cement the growing legend of Andrew Luck. Granted, three games came at home but he has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. This was done while using his best two receivers Reggie and Wayne. Luck even added a rushing score last week and gains 20+ yards as a runner because he can. Luck has been a tremendous pick by the Colts who now only need to get him some legitimate talent for receivers instead of making him work so hard at it.

Donald Brown was able to run for a season high 84 yards last week when the Packers gave up a couple of big gainers but this week will be the second time Brown has been on the road. He rushed for 48 yards on nine runs in Chicago back in the opener. Brown has not been given more than 18 runs in a game and has minimal if any receptions each week. Vick Ballard gets half a dozen carries too though he never produces more than around two yards per carry. Oddly enough, the lone rushing touchdown came in the Chicago opener.

Luck is already impressive mixing receivers each week. Dwayne Allen now has two touchdowns and nine catches in the last two games. Coby Fleener was quiet for two weeks and then turned in 41 yards on five catches against the Packers. The fantasy value here is marginal at best and since it teeters between two players, there is no need to play a guessing game each week.

Reggie Wayne is on his way to a record shattering season and that means he will slow down at some point sadly. So far Wayne has been phenomenal. He has been thrown 50 passes for 36 catches and 506 yards. That is in four games. A pace that would project out to 156 catches for 2024 yards. Probably not going to happen but Wayne has been the best wideout value this year by a mile. Both T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery have produced 100 yard games and yet minimal yardage in the other weeks. The key to the Colts offense is that Luck only throws two kinds of passes. One goes to Wayne and the other is distributed nearly randomly.

No arguing that Luck and Wayne have been huge surprises but this is only the second game away and that should make a difference. The Jets put up a good fight with the Texans last week and so far no one on the Colts has been confused with Arian Foster.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 28 4 10 20 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 3 19 22 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @NYG 20000031030 ****
Luck has six straight 300-yard games and multiple touchdowns in every game this season; you're going to trot him out against any defense, doesn't matter who. Though it doesn't hurt that the Giants have allowed multiple TDs in back-to-back games, does it?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND @NYG 4004401000 ***
Bradshaw gets the third-down work, a healthy share of the goal line work, and if Trent Richardson isn't fully healthy an increased share of all the other stuff as well. He's the more dynamic and more effective back in Indy's stable, so he's at least as good of a bet as Richardson to capitalize on a Giants' defense that's allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushers and at least one RB TD in six of seven games this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND @NYG 401000000 **
Richardson returns to action just in time to face a Giants defense that's allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts and at least one RB TD in six of seven games. Whether or not he returns to his lead role in the Indy backfield remains to be seen however, and even if he does Ahmad Bradshaw has been the more effective fantasy play anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND @NYG 004601000 **
It's a revenge game for Nicks, who dogged the Giants with a zero-TD swan song last season. Revenge would be more likely has Nicks not amassed a paltry 8-86 in the five games since he last saw the end zone. It's not a matter of targets, either; that 8-86 came on 26 targets. It would take a concerted effort by the Colts to rub Tom Coughlin's face in a Nicks TD for revenge to happen here, and Indy probably doesn't care that much about a free-agent-to-be WR3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @NYG 0081100000 ****
Three straight 100-yard efforts, six straight with at least 80 yards... yeah, Hilton's handling the transition to WR1 just fine. No reason for his roll to slow against a Giants secondary that's already allowed four feature receivers to reach triple-digit yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND @NYG 003400000 ***
Moncrief has moved into the WR2 role in Indy, just in time to capitalize on a matchup with a Giants' secondary that's allowed fantasy helpers to multiple WRs in three of the past five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND @NYG 002201000 ****
Over the past two games the Giants have allowed 210 yards and four TDs to opposing tight ends. The Colts have a TE TD in every game this season, and even if Allen has to share some stats with Coby Fleener this is a favorable enough matchup that Allen--heck, maybe both Indy TEs--belongs in your fantasy lineup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @NYG 2144 ***
Multiple PATs in every game, multiple FGs in every game since Week 1... Vinatieri is getting ample opportunity to swing the leg on an every-week basis.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 30 250,2
RB Chris Johnson 20 2-10
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Eric Decker 6-70
WR T.J. Graham 3-40
WR Percy Harvin 20 7-100,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets fell short against the Texans as expected but put up a far better fight than anticipated along with a defense that played better in every facet other than stopping Arian Foster which we cannot be sure is even possible. This is a home game before heading to New England for a certain spanking. The Jets have to win this one or the New York media will have their collective heads explode.

Mark Sanchez continues to be supported in each post game press conference which alone says there is a problem. Sanchez has not completed 50% of his passes for the last four games and has six touchdowns against six interceptions only thanks to the opener against the Bills inflating his stats. Sanchez has thrown just two scores against five interceptions over the last three games. Tim Tebow only threw for one incompletion against the Texans and rushed five times for 19 yards. He's still just a gimmick as he was when he ran a fake punt for a first down. The passing game here is doing little from a lack of healthy receivers.

Newest on the injury report is Clyde Gates who comes off a career best game with one catch for 27 yards but popped his shoulder out of place in the process. Chaz Schilens started the game but only produced four catches for 29 yards and Jeremy Kerley has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. He ended with 94 yards on five catches last Monday but had just two receptions in each of the three previous games. This crew has devolved to such a bad level that Antonio Cromartie is getting reps at wideout. You half expect him to run backwards and intercept Sanchez.

Jeff Cumberland scored for the first time in his three year career and his 51 yards on two receptions shattered his previous best of 33 yards in a game. Dustin Keller expects to return from the hamstring strain that has bothered him since preseason and kept him out the last four weeks. If you are looking for a tight end in a really large league, Keller might be worth a look.

The rushing effort remains a mess with HC Rex Ryan still saying that Shonn Greene is the man (8-26) even though he used both Bilal Powell (4-18) and Joe McKnight (4-5). This remains the worst set of running backs in the league. Dead last. Jonathan Grimes is the only one left that has yet to show how bad he is and was active last week for the first time as a Jet though he never played.

The Colts on the road should be more accommodating than the Texans to be sure. But there is a lack of talent here to expect anything more than a moderate showing by the offense that is just good enough to get a sorely needed win. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the league and that is bound to help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 32 20 26 25 7
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 23 28 1 18 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, NYJ @KC 40000015011 ***
Vick hasn't had a fantasy-relevant outing since the first month of last season, and a date with a Chiefs defense that's given up the third-fewest fantasy points to the position isn't likely to help him turn back the clock.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @KC 5002100000 ***
While it's tough to project a touchdown for Beast East against a KC defense that hasn't allowed an RB TD all year, it's worth noting that backs with at least a dozen carries against KC have produced at a 5.5 yards per carry clip. Ivory should get that workload, maybe even turning it into a fantasy helper.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ @KC 3005500000 ***
There's always upside with Percy, but this season it hasn't translated into much. The Jets are still trying to figure out ways to use Harvin, but be it as a runner or receiver it's tough to bank on fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @KC 006500000 ***
It's far from a favorable matchup, but if any Jet receiver is to carve out fantasy value it will be the frequently targeted Decker.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @KC 006601000 ****
Great googly-moogly, the Jets have allowed seven TE TDs already this year. So long as Jeff Cumberland doesn't swipe any more looks from Amaro he's an intriguing play here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @KC 2211 ****
Three of the past four games Folk has scored exactly five points. That's not going to feed the bulldogs, so best look for your fantasy kicker elsewhere.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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