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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: IND 17, NYJ 23 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Clyde Gates, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill

Players to Watch: Dustin Keller

The 2-2 Colts hit the road in only their second game away from home. The Jets come off their Monday night loss and have a shorter week but most players were already injured and on the sideline anyway. The difference in this game will be only the second time that the Colts have left home. They have played the last three games at Indy all were close matches but the Jets are getting desperate and Andy Luck is taking the car on the road for only the second time.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 280,2
RB Frank Gore 100,1 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-40
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers helps cement the growing legend of Andrew Luck. Granted, three games came at home but he has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. This was done while using his best two receivers Reggie and Wayne. Luck even added a rushing score last week and gains 20+ yards as a runner because he can. Luck has been a tremendous pick by the Colts who now only need to get him some legitimate talent for receivers instead of making him work so hard at it.

Donald Brown was able to run for a season high 84 yards last week when the Packers gave up a couple of big gainers but this week will be the second time Brown has been on the road. He rushed for 48 yards on nine runs in Chicago back in the opener. Brown has not been given more than 18 runs in a game and has minimal if any receptions each week. Vick Ballard gets half a dozen carries too though he never produces more than around two yards per carry. Oddly enough, the lone rushing touchdown came in the Chicago opener.

Luck is already impressive mixing receivers each week. Dwayne Allen now has two touchdowns and nine catches in the last two games. Coby Fleener was quiet for two weeks and then turned in 41 yards on five catches against the Packers. The fantasy value here is marginal at best and since it teeters between two players, there is no need to play a guessing game each week.

Reggie Wayne is on his way to a record shattering season and that means he will slow down at some point sadly. So far Wayne has been phenomenal. He has been thrown 50 passes for 36 catches and 506 yards. That is in four games. A pace that would project out to 156 catches for 2024 yards. Probably not going to happen but Wayne has been the best wideout value this year by a mile. Both T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery have produced 100 yard games and yet minimal yardage in the other weeks. The key to the Colts offense is that Luck only throws two kinds of passes. One goes to Wayne and the other is distributed nearly randomly.

No arguing that Luck and Wayne have been huge surprises but this is only the second game away and that should make a difference. The Jets put up a good fight with the Texans last week and so far no one on the Colts has been confused with Arian Foster.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 28 4 10 20 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 3 19 22 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND SD 20000031030 ***
San Diego has been very strong against the position, and Luck is now without Donte Moncrief. His upside remains high, yet his floor is now much lower than before. The Bolts have given up a ton of yardage but only four TDs in two games, intercepting three passes along the way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND SD 6005200000 ***
San Diego gave up a lot of garbage-time points in Week 2, and among that comeback attempt was a receiving touchdown from the RB position. Gore is as good of a play as a 300-year-old running back ever will be as the offense likely tries to balance a little after losing Donte Moncrief.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Turbin, IND SD 101000000 **
Turbin doesn't belong on rosters or in lineups at this time, unless you play in a cavernous league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND SD 002601000 ***
Donte Moncrief's injury ascends Dorsett in the pecking order. The former first-rounder has speed to burn and makes for a fine play in standard-scoring formats. He isn't likely to see enough balls to be a strong play in PPR. San Diego ranks 15th against WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND SD 005800000 ***
Hilton isn't 100 percent recovered yet but was in good enough shape to play in Week 2. He'll see more looks with Donte Moncrief out, but that might not matter against Jason Verrett and plenty of shades. San Diego is a neutral matchup for fantasy receivers through two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND SD 004601000 ***
Get Allen into those lineups, including DFS contests. He's a TE1 against San Diego -- the third best matchup for TEs -- with Donte Moncrief out.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND SD 004501000 ***
Doyle is a good DFS buy this week. San Diego has given up the third most points to TEs.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND SD 2244 ***
Indy's offense should give the old guy plenty of chances to swing the old leg via extra points and a few field goal chances.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 210,1
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Eric Decker 6-70
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets fell short against the Texans as expected but put up a far better fight than anticipated along with a defense that played better in every facet other than stopping Arian Foster which we cannot be sure is even possible. This is a home game before heading to New England for a certain spanking. The Jets have to win this one or the New York media will have their collective heads explode.

Mark Sanchez continues to be supported in each post game press conference which alone says there is a problem. Sanchez has not completed 50% of his passes for the last four games and has six touchdowns against six interceptions only thanks to the opener against the Bills inflating his stats. Sanchez has thrown just two scores against five interceptions over the last three games. Tim Tebow only threw for one incompletion against the Texans and rushed five times for 19 yards. He's still just a gimmick as he was when he ran a fake punt for a first down. The passing game here is doing little from a lack of healthy receivers.

Newest on the injury report is Clyde Gates who comes off a career best game with one catch for 27 yards but popped his shoulder out of place in the process. Chaz Schilens started the game but only produced four catches for 29 yards and Jeremy Kerley has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. He ended with 94 yards on five catches last Monday but had just two receptions in each of the three previous games. This crew has devolved to such a bad level that Antonio Cromartie is getting reps at wideout. You half expect him to run backwards and intercept Sanchez.

Jeff Cumberland scored for the first time in his three year career and his 51 yards on two receptions shattered his previous best of 33 yards in a game. Dustin Keller expects to return from the hamstring strain that has bothered him since preseason and kept him out the last four weeks. If you are looking for a tight end in a really large league, Keller might be worth a look.

The rushing effort remains a mess with HC Rex Ryan still saying that Shonn Greene is the man (8-26) even though he used both Bilal Powell (4-18) and Joe McKnight (4-5). This remains the worst set of running backs in the league. Dead last. Jonathan Grimes is the only one left that has yet to show how bad he is and was active last week for the first time as a Jet though he never played.

The Colts on the road should be more accommodating than the Texans to be sure. But there is a lack of talent here to expect anything more than a moderate showing by the offense that is just good enough to get a sorely needed win. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the league and that is bound to help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 32 20 26 25 7
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 23 28 1 18 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ @KC 20000024011 ***
Fitz may rack up the yardage but struggle to put the ball into the end zone ... sound familiar? KC has permitted the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks through two games, sponsored by two touchdowns allowed in total.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @KC 9013200000 ***
Forte has been a beast through two games, coming off a three-TD performance in Week 2. He's probably not 100 percent healthy, but that isn't of terrible concern. KC has given up 248 total rushing and 58 aerial yards with three combined trips to paydirt.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @KC 005901000 ***
Marcus Peters probably will follow Decker around, which doesn't matter too much since Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't shy away from gambling. The Chiefs have allowed a ton of yards (392) on 28 grabs and only one score vs. WRs.

In the event Brandon Marshall doesn't play -- which appears to be the case -- Decker will see doubles and draw the best corner (Marcus Peters). Limit your expectations ... WR3-ish.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @KC 006700000 ***
Enunwa emerged nicely through two games and is a real talent. He may not do so well against a higher level of competition without Brandon Marshall, though. Play him as a PPR flex to err on the side of caution. KC has granted only one touchdown to WRs this season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @KC 2222 ***
Kansas City has permitted six field goals on eight kicks, ranking third among the most forgiving defenses against the position.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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