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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: IND 17, NYJ 23 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Clyde Gates, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill

Players to Watch: Dustin Keller

The 2-2 Colts hit the road in only their second game away from home. The Jets come off their Monday night loss and have a shorter week but most players were already injured and on the sideline anyway. The difference in this game will be only the second time that the Colts have left home. They have played the last three games at Indy all were close matches but the Jets are getting desperate and Andy Luck is taking the car on the road for only the second time.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 180,1
QB Andrew Luck 10 280,2
RB Vick Ballard 60 2-10
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60 4-30
RB Trent Richardson 80,1 8-60
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-40
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne 8-100,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers helps cement the growing legend of Andrew Luck. Granted, three games came at home but he has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. This was done while using his best two receivers Reggie and Wayne. Luck even added a rushing score last week and gains 20+ yards as a runner because he can. Luck has been a tremendous pick by the Colts who now only need to get him some legitimate talent for receivers instead of making him work so hard at it.

Donald Brown was able to run for a season high 84 yards last week when the Packers gave up a couple of big gainers but this week will be the second time Brown has been on the road. He rushed for 48 yards on nine runs in Chicago back in the opener. Brown has not been given more than 18 runs in a game and has minimal if any receptions each week. Vick Ballard gets half a dozen carries too though he never produces more than around two yards per carry. Oddly enough, the lone rushing touchdown came in the Chicago opener.

Luck is already impressive mixing receivers each week. Dwayne Allen now has two touchdowns and nine catches in the last two games. Coby Fleener was quiet for two weeks and then turned in 41 yards on five catches against the Packers. The fantasy value here is marginal at best and since it teeters between two players, there is no need to play a guessing game each week.

Reggie Wayne is on his way to a record shattering season and that means he will slow down at some point sadly. So far Wayne has been phenomenal. He has been thrown 50 passes for 36 catches and 506 yards. That is in four games. A pace that would project out to 156 catches for 2024 yards. Probably not going to happen but Wayne has been the best wideout value this year by a mile. Both T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery have produced 100 yard games and yet minimal yardage in the other weeks. The key to the Colts offense is that Luck only throws two kinds of passes. One goes to Wayne and the other is distributed nearly randomly.

No arguing that Luck and Wayne have been huge surprises but this is only the second game away and that should make a difference. The Jets put up a good fight with the Texans last week and so far no one on the Colts has been confused with Arian Foster.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 28 4 10 20 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 3 19 22 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND TEN 20000020020 ***
Has Pep Hamilton taken off the restrictor plates? Nearly 40 attempts per game, two 370-yard efforts, and multiple TD tosses in all three outings suggest he has. This will be a true test, as Luck barely mustered 200 yards in both ends of last season's series with the Titans and failed to throw a touchdown against them. Different season; dial back expectations a bit but Luck is still imminently startable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND TEN 7005201000 ****
Bradshaw has been more productive with fewer touches than Trent Richardson, and he should remain at least the former against a Titans defense that's giving up almost 120 RB rushing yards and more than one RB TD per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND TEN 8011100000 ****
Richardson continues to pace the Colts' backfield in touches, though his productivity has been largely pedestrian. He'll get the volume again, and against the Titans that should be enough for him to be fantasy relevant in a six-team bye week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND TEN 004501000 ****
History has not been kind to Wayne in this matchup; he's hit the century mark just three times in 22 career meetings, most recently in 2010. Wayne did score the last time he faced the Titans, but he's in a muddled mix in Indy so he can't be banked on with any degree of certainty.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND TEN 006700000 ****
Hilton leads Indy wideouts in targets, but he's not definitively the WR1 and that's who has found success against the Titans--wideouts who garner the vast majority of their team's looks. He's still a home run hitter, but right now TY is in a bit of a slump.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND TEN 003300000 ***
Nicks is the least targeted, least productive of Indy's receiving trio; he's also scored both of their WR TDs this year. Tough to bank on another one here against a Tennessee secondary that's allowed only one all season, and without a touchdown Nicks' fantasy value is limited.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND TEN 004300000 ***
The Titans aren't giving up enough to the position to be considered a favorable matchup, and with Allen having to share looks with Coby Fleener he's a longshot at best for fantasy relevancy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND TEN 003200000 ***
Fleener dropped an 8-catch, 107-yard outing on the Titans last season but things have changed: Indy has a viable third receiver, and Dwayne Allen is healthy to usurp looks. Proceed with caution.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND TEN 4433 ***
Tennessee is giving up more than eight points per game to kickers; Vinatieri is averaging better than nine. That'll work.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 30 250,2
RB Chris Johnson 20 2-10
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Eric Decker 6-70
WR T.J. Graham 3-40
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets fell short against the Texans as expected but put up a far better fight than anticipated along with a defense that played better in every facet other than stopping Arian Foster which we cannot be sure is even possible. This is a home game before heading to New England for a certain spanking. The Jets have to win this one or the New York media will have their collective heads explode.

Mark Sanchez continues to be supported in each post game press conference which alone says there is a problem. Sanchez has not completed 50% of his passes for the last four games and has six touchdowns against six interceptions only thanks to the opener against the Bills inflating his stats. Sanchez has thrown just two scores against five interceptions over the last three games. Tim Tebow only threw for one incompletion against the Texans and rushed five times for 19 yards. He's still just a gimmick as he was when he ran a fake punt for a first down. The passing game here is doing little from a lack of healthy receivers.

Newest on the injury report is Clyde Gates who comes off a career best game with one catch for 27 yards but popped his shoulder out of place in the process. Chaz Schilens started the game but only produced four catches for 29 yards and Jeremy Kerley has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. He ended with 94 yards on five catches last Monday but had just two receptions in each of the three previous games. This crew has devolved to such a bad level that Antonio Cromartie is getting reps at wideout. You half expect him to run backwards and intercept Sanchez.

Jeff Cumberland scored for the first time in his three year career and his 51 yards on two receptions shattered his previous best of 33 yards in a game. Dustin Keller expects to return from the hamstring strain that has bothered him since preseason and kept him out the last four weeks. If you are looking for a tight end in a really large league, Keller might be worth a look.

The rushing effort remains a mess with HC Rex Ryan still saying that Shonn Greene is the man (8-26) even though he used both Bilal Powell (4-18) and Joe McKnight (4-5). This remains the worst set of running backs in the league. Dead last. Jonathan Grimes is the only one left that has yet to show how bad he is and was active last week for the first time as a Jet though he never played.

The Colts on the road should be more accommodating than the Texans to be sure. But there is a lack of talent here to expect anything more than a moderate showing by the offense that is just good enough to get a sorely needed win. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the league and that is bound to help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 32 20 26 25 7
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 23 28 1 18 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ DET 20000023012 ***
No compelling reason to believe Geno goes where Eli, Cam and Discount Double-Check couldn't and produced a fantasy helper against the Lions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ DET 4013200000 ***
As the bigger back in the Jets' tandem Ivory has a shot at a TD against a Detroit defense that allowed Rashad Jennings and Jonathan Stewart to score against them. However, he's splitting touches with Chris Johnson with puts a cap on his yardage upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ DET 400000000 ***
Johnson won't find much room against a stout Lions run defense. And while you'd think he could capitalize on Detroit's small susceptibility to pass-catching backs, last week it was Chris Ivory handling pass-catching duties as well. You may miss out on the home run, but you'll also miss out on the three or four strikeouts as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ DET 005600000 ***
If Eric Decker can't go Kerley bumps over to first chair, but it's still too tough a match-up to warrant a fantasy start for any Jets wideout.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ DET 004500000 ***
Decker has yet to return to practice after exiting the Jets' Week 3 loss prematurely due to aggravation of his hamstring injury. As if you needed reason to avoid any wideout against a Detroit secondary that's surrendered just one WR TD and zero games of 60 yards or more.
Update: Decker returned to practice Friday on a limited basis, but his upside in this matchup doesn't outweigh the risk of re-injury or being ruled out prior to kickoff.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Salas, NYJ DET 003300000 ***
Salas saw extra snaps last week due to Eric Decker's injury. Best case for Salas: Decker remains sidelined and Salas runs as Jeremy Kerley's wingman against a stout Lions pass D. Worst case: Salas goes back to tertiary target. Neither bolsters his fantasy prospects.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ DET 002301000 **
Simply put, Detroit can't stop opposing tight ends. Amaro is still battling Jeff Cumberland for looks, but he's the better pass-catcher of the duo and thus poised to be a sneaky fantasy play here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ DET 2222 ****
Folk hasn't missed yet this season and is averaging a robust nine points per game. The Lions have clamped down on kickers at home... but this one's in the Empire State. Advantage: Folk.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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