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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: IND 17, NYJ 23 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Clyde Gates, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill

Players to Watch: Dustin Keller

The 2-2 Colts hit the road in only their second game away from home. The Jets come off their Monday night loss and have a shorter week but most players were already injured and on the sideline anyway. The difference in this game will be only the second time that the Colts have left home. They have played the last three games at Indy all were close matches but the Jets are getting desperate and Andy Luck is taking the car on the road for only the second time.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 180,1
QB Andrew Luck 10 280,2
RB Vick Ballard 60 2-10
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60 4-30
RB Trent Richardson 80,1 8-60
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-40
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne 8-100,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers helps cement the growing legend of Andrew Luck. Granted, three games came at home but he has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. This was done while using his best two receivers Reggie and Wayne. Luck even added a rushing score last week and gains 20+ yards as a runner because he can. Luck has been a tremendous pick by the Colts who now only need to get him some legitimate talent for receivers instead of making him work so hard at it.

Donald Brown was able to run for a season high 84 yards last week when the Packers gave up a couple of big gainers but this week will be the second time Brown has been on the road. He rushed for 48 yards on nine runs in Chicago back in the opener. Brown has not been given more than 18 runs in a game and has minimal if any receptions each week. Vick Ballard gets half a dozen carries too though he never produces more than around two yards per carry. Oddly enough, the lone rushing touchdown came in the Chicago opener.

Luck is already impressive mixing receivers each week. Dwayne Allen now has two touchdowns and nine catches in the last two games. Coby Fleener was quiet for two weeks and then turned in 41 yards on five catches against the Packers. The fantasy value here is marginal at best and since it teeters between two players, there is no need to play a guessing game each week.

Reggie Wayne is on his way to a record shattering season and that means he will slow down at some point sadly. So far Wayne has been phenomenal. He has been thrown 50 passes for 36 catches and 506 yards. That is in four games. A pace that would project out to 156 catches for 2024 yards. Probably not going to happen but Wayne has been the best wideout value this year by a mile. Both T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery have produced 100 yard games and yet minimal yardage in the other weeks. The key to the Colts offense is that Luck only throws two kinds of passes. One goes to Wayne and the other is distributed nearly randomly.

No arguing that Luck and Wayne have been huge surprises but this is only the second game away and that should make a difference. The Jets put up a good fight with the Texans last week and so far no one on the Colts has been confused with Arian Foster.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 28 4 10 20 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 3 19 22 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND CIN 0000032030 ***
Cincy's far from a soft matchup but at this juncture one does not bet against Luck; he's topped 300 yards in five of six and scored multiple touchdowns in every game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND CIN 4003201000 ****
Bradshaw has been the more effective of Indy's backs, plus he's a factor in the passing game. Cincy hasn't given up much on the ground, but Bradshaw's contributions as a receiver make him at least a fringe fantasy contributor this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND CIN 4004300000 ***
Richardson is the hammer in Pep Hamilton's toolbox, and against Cincy that's not a bad tool to be as the last three RB TDs they've surrendered have gone to hammer backs like Shonn Greene, Stevan Ridley, and Fozzy Whittaker.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND CIN 007801000 ***
No secondary receiver has topped 50 yards against the Bengals, and that's what Wayne has become in Indy. Keep your expectations low, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to look for fantasy help elsewhere this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND CIN 006800000 ****
The Bengals haven't given up a ton to opposing wideouts, but the three TDs they have surrendered have all gone to WR1s--a role Hilton has inhabited in Indy. Plus, with Andrew Luck as red-hot as he is, you can't bet against TY.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND CIN 004601000 ***
There's certainly opportunity here against a Cincy D that's surrendered three TE TDs in the past two games. Allen's fantasy value is dinged only by the prospect of Coby Fleener, and to a lesser extent Jack Doyle, swiping looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND CIN 002300000 ***
Andrew Luck's former college go-to guy has become his second-favorite tight end at the pro level. It's a favorable matchup, but odds are Dwayne Allen swipes Fleener's fantasy opportunities this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND CIN 3333 ****
No surprise that the rock-solid Vinatieri has been rock-solid consistent, with at least eight points in each of the past five games while averaging a shade over 10 points per outing. Doesn't hurt that the Bengals have allowed eight field goals in just the past two games, either.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 30 250,2
RB Chris Johnson 20 2-10
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Eric Decker 6-70
WR T.J. Graham 3-40
WR Percy Harvin 20 7-100,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets fell short against the Texans as expected but put up a far better fight than anticipated along with a defense that played better in every facet other than stopping Arian Foster which we cannot be sure is even possible. This is a home game before heading to New England for a certain spanking. The Jets have to win this one or the New York media will have their collective heads explode.

Mark Sanchez continues to be supported in each post game press conference which alone says there is a problem. Sanchez has not completed 50% of his passes for the last four games and has six touchdowns against six interceptions only thanks to the opener against the Bills inflating his stats. Sanchez has thrown just two scores against five interceptions over the last three games. Tim Tebow only threw for one incompletion against the Texans and rushed five times for 19 yards. He's still just a gimmick as he was when he ran a fake punt for a first down. The passing game here is doing little from a lack of healthy receivers.

Newest on the injury report is Clyde Gates who comes off a career best game with one catch for 27 yards but popped his shoulder out of place in the process. Chaz Schilens started the game but only produced four catches for 29 yards and Jeremy Kerley has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. He ended with 94 yards on five catches last Monday but had just two receptions in each of the three previous games. This crew has devolved to such a bad level that Antonio Cromartie is getting reps at wideout. You half expect him to run backwards and intercept Sanchez.

Jeff Cumberland scored for the first time in his three year career and his 51 yards on two receptions shattered his previous best of 33 yards in a game. Dustin Keller expects to return from the hamstring strain that has bothered him since preseason and kept him out the last four weeks. If you are looking for a tight end in a really large league, Keller might be worth a look.

The rushing effort remains a mess with HC Rex Ryan still saying that Shonn Greene is the man (8-26) even though he used both Bilal Powell (4-18) and Joe McKnight (4-5). This remains the worst set of running backs in the league. Dead last. Jonathan Grimes is the only one left that has yet to show how bad he is and was active last week for the first time as a Jet though he never played.

The Colts on the road should be more accommodating than the Texans to be sure. But there is a lack of talent here to expect anything more than a moderate showing by the offense that is just good enough to get a sorely needed win. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the league and that is bound to help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 32 20 26 25 7
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 23 28 1 18 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @NE 20000019011 ***
It's actually a sneaky favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that's allowed multiple TD tosses in three straight games. But it'll take a rushing score for Smith to be a real fantasy factor, and the Pats haven't allowed one yet this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @NE 4002100000 ****
Ivory may be the lead dog but he's still sharing at least some of the workload. And against a Patriots defense that's giving up 65 rushing yards per game at home, even a share won't be enough to move the fantasy needle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @NE 3001100000 ***
CJicK is seeing his touches and production dwindle, to the point he probably doesn't even warrant a fantasy roster spot at this juncture.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @NE 003401000 **
Kerley isn't doing much with the second-tier looks he's getting in the Jets' passing game. If you're banking on fantasy help here you're playing the "not covered by Darrelle Revis" card. There are better cards in the deck.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @NE 004500000 ****
We're sayin' there's a chance, as the Patriots have allowed four WR TDs in the past two games. That said, if Decker winds up on the business end of Darrelle Revis... well, that's not going to end well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ @NE 00000000 **
With Harvin you're hoping the Seahawks find enough ways to get him the ball that he busts a big play. Against a Rams' defense that's allowed seven WR TDs in just the past three games, there's a good shot Percy does just that.
Update: Harvin has been traded to the Jets, who have already played this week. So any pipe dreams of Harvin playing a full 16 games this year... poof.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @NE 005500000 ****
Over the past three games the Pats have surrendered 8-93-1 to Travis Kelce and 6-105 to Scott Chandler. With Amaro's targets--and productivity--on the dramatic rise, you have to like his chances for a fantasy helper here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @NE 1111 ****
Aside from the week the Jets were shut out, Folk has consistently produced mediocre numbers. You're okay with him, but you can probably do better elsewhere.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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