FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: IND 17, NYJ 23 (Line: NYJ by 3)

Players Updated: Clyde Gates, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill

Players to Watch: Dustin Keller

The 2-2 Colts hit the road in only their second game away from home. The Jets come off their Monday night loss and have a shorter week but most players were already injured and on the sideline anyway. The difference in this game will be only the second time that the Colts have left home. They have played the last three games at Indy all were close matches but the Jets are getting desperate and Andy Luck is taking the car on the road for only the second time.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ ----- 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE ----- 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN ----- 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 180,1
QB Andrew Luck 10 280,2
RB Vick Ballard 60 2-10
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60 4-30
RB Trent Richardson 80,1 8-60
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-40
WR Hakeem Nicks
WR Reggie Wayne 8-100,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers helps cement the growing legend of Andrew Luck. Granted, three games came at home but he has passed for over 300 yards in three of four games and scored twice in all but one. This was done while using his best two receivers Reggie and Wayne. Luck even added a rushing score last week and gains 20+ yards as a runner because he can. Luck has been a tremendous pick by the Colts who now only need to get him some legitimate talent for receivers instead of making him work so hard at it.

Donald Brown was able to run for a season high 84 yards last week when the Packers gave up a couple of big gainers but this week will be the second time Brown has been on the road. He rushed for 48 yards on nine runs in Chicago back in the opener. Brown has not been given more than 18 runs in a game and has minimal if any receptions each week. Vick Ballard gets half a dozen carries too though he never produces more than around two yards per carry. Oddly enough, the lone rushing touchdown came in the Chicago opener.

Luck is already impressive mixing receivers each week. Dwayne Allen now has two touchdowns and nine catches in the last two games. Coby Fleener was quiet for two weeks and then turned in 41 yards on five catches against the Packers. The fantasy value here is marginal at best and since it teeters between two players, there is no need to play a guessing game each week.

Reggie Wayne is on his way to a record shattering season and that means he will slow down at some point sadly. So far Wayne has been phenomenal. He has been thrown 50 passes for 36 catches and 506 yards. That is in four games. A pace that would project out to 156 catches for 2024 yards. Probably not going to happen but Wayne has been the best wideout value this year by a mile. Both T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery have produced 100 yard games and yet minimal yardage in the other weeks. The key to the Colts offense is that Luck only throws two kinds of passes. One goes to Wayne and the other is distributed nearly randomly.

No arguing that Luck and Wayne have been huge surprises but this is only the second game away and that should make a difference. The Jets put up a good fight with the Texans last week and so far no one on the Colts has been confused with Arian Foster.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 28 4 10 20 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 9 25 3 19 22 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND WAS 20000030030 ***
Luck eased up last week, turning a season-low 32 attempts into just 253 and 1. The Redskins aren't a pushover, but there's no reason to think he can't get back in the saddle with the usual attempts turned into what's become the norm: multiple TDs and something approaching 300 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dan Herron, IND WAS 3005300000 ****
Herron has moved into roughly half the Indy backfield workload, but he's not doing enough with those touches to warrant significant fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND WAS 4002200000 ***
Richardson has become purely a volume guy, and with half his volume going to Dan Herron--and the Redskins a relatively tough matchup for opposing RBs--he's a fringe fantasy entity at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND WAS 0081202000 ***
Washington's allowed a gaudy WR performance each of the past two weeks--Mike Evans' 7-209-2, Anquan Boldin's 9-137-1--and Hilton is the Colt most likely to follow that lead.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND WAS 005601000 **
Wayne's a solid wingman but not much of a fantasy option against a team that hasn't allowed multiple WR fantasy helpers in more than a month.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND WAS 003400000 ***
Nicks is too lightly targeted and too inconsistently productive to bank on for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND WAS 002300000 ***
Given his performance the previous two weeks, last week's 2-28 from Fleener was a genuine disappointment. Washington's a bit softer of a TE matchup so Fleener's a slightly better bet to put that disappointment in the rear view mirror and deliver a fantasy helper here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND WAS 3333 ****
My Cousin Vinny hasn't been below eight points since the season opener and hit double-digits three of the past four games. He's as money a kicker as you can find right now.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND ----- 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 30 250,2
RB Chris Johnson 20 2-10
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Eric Decker 6-70
WR T.J. Graham 3-40
WR Percy Harvin 20 7-100,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets fell short against the Texans as expected but put up a far better fight than anticipated along with a defense that played better in every facet other than stopping Arian Foster which we cannot be sure is even possible. This is a home game before heading to New England for a certain spanking. The Jets have to win this one or the New York media will have their collective heads explode.

Mark Sanchez continues to be supported in each post game press conference which alone says there is a problem. Sanchez has not completed 50% of his passes for the last four games and has six touchdowns against six interceptions only thanks to the opener against the Bills inflating his stats. Sanchez has thrown just two scores against five interceptions over the last three games. Tim Tebow only threw for one incompletion against the Texans and rushed five times for 19 yards. He's still just a gimmick as he was when he ran a fake punt for a first down. The passing game here is doing little from a lack of healthy receivers.

Newest on the injury report is Clyde Gates who comes off a career best game with one catch for 27 yards but popped his shoulder out of place in the process. Chaz Schilens started the game but only produced four catches for 29 yards and Jeremy Kerley has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. He ended with 94 yards on five catches last Monday but had just two receptions in each of the three previous games. This crew has devolved to such a bad level that Antonio Cromartie is getting reps at wideout. You half expect him to run backwards and intercept Sanchez.

Jeff Cumberland scored for the first time in his three year career and his 51 yards on two receptions shattered his previous best of 33 yards in a game. Dustin Keller expects to return from the hamstring strain that has bothered him since preseason and kept him out the last four weeks. If you are looking for a tight end in a really large league, Keller might be worth a look.

The rushing effort remains a mess with HC Rex Ryan still saying that Shonn Greene is the man (8-26) even though he used both Bilal Powell (4-18) and Joe McKnight (4-5). This remains the worst set of running backs in the league. Dead last. Jonathan Grimes is the only one left that has yet to show how bad he is and was active last week for the first time as a Jet though he never played.

The Colts on the road should be more accommodating than the Texans to be sure. But there is a lack of talent here to expect anything more than a moderate showing by the offense that is just good enough to get a sorely needed win. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the league and that is bound to help.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 32 20 26 25 7
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 23 28 1 18 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, NYJ MIA 30000017011 ***
Geno Smith will start at quarterback for the Jets this week. As if it even matters.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ MIA 5002100000 ***
Ivory is no longer the Jets' clear-cut go-to back; he essentially split carries with Chris Johnson last week and doesn't fit the mold of the few backs who have found success against Miami--namely, speed guys.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ MIA 3002100000 ***
Johnson has a couple solid outings against the Dolphins on his resume, though they came two and four years ago as a Texan. Given that the Dolphins just let CJ Anderson run all over them, there's a chance the Jets find a way to do the same with this CJ and/or Chris Ivory. Not a good chance, mind you, but a chance nonetheless.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ MIA 005501000 **
The Dolphins have given up some big WR outings; however there's a big difference between the likes of Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas catching passes from Matthew Stafford and Peyton Manning... and Decker trying to catch errant tosses from Geno Smith. Subdue your expectations accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ MIA 004400000 ***
The advantage Harvin has is that there are ways to get him the ball that don't involve Geno Smith's accuracy. Whether the Jets go out of their way to do that here remains to be seen.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ MIA 002300000 ***
There's barely enough passing game productivity to feed one, maybe two wide receivers in New York. Kerley is running a distant third to Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, so there's no reason to think he'll be a fantasy factor here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ MIA 1111 ***
Folk has a total of 20 points over the past for games, kicking for an offense that hasn't topped 25 all year. Neither of those bode well for his fantasy prospects this week.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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