FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 120,1 3-20
WR Jason Avant 3-30
WR Jeremy Maclin 4-50
WR Mike Williams 4-60

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC OAK 0000019010 ***
Since Smith took the Raiders for three TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing) in Week 13, they've held Brock Osweiler, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers to a combined two scores. Meanwhile, Smith hasn't topped 200 yards since Week 12 and his last 300 yard game is three months in the rear view mirror. Lots of reasons to look elsewhere for fantasy help this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Charcandrick West, KC OAK 7011100000 ***
West continues to get the majority of touches in KC's backfield, but it'll take a touchdown to have real fantasy value and that's a 50/50 proposition between West and the bulkier Spencer Ware. That leaves Charcandrick as a good not great play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Spencer Ware, KC OAK 500000000 ***
Ware has had success at the stripe before, and the Raiders have allowed RB TDs in three of the last four games. But his getting a quarter of KC's backfield touches makes it extremely difficult to bank on Ware for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC OAK 006801000 ***
The only Chiefs wideout who warrants fantasy attention, Maclin rolled up 9-95-2 in the earlier meeting with Oakland. The Raiders have consistently allowed WR1s to produce and Maclin has five TDs in his last five games, so a repeat performance is in order.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, KC OAK 004300000 ***
Every couple of weeks Wilson usurps Jeremy Maclin for a touchdown; then he slinks back into the wallpaper for a couple nothing games. The Raiders haven't allowed multiple wideouts to score in a game this year, and the top wingman yardage games are 73 (more than a month ago by Golden Tate) and 89 (back in Week 2 by Kamar Aiken). Wilson isn't bringing anything to the fantasy table here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC OAK 005600000 ***
The Raiders were a soft mark for tight ends early on, but they haven't allowed a TE TD since Week 12 and blanked Kelce (2-42) a month ago. He's been a little more involved in the offense but thanks to Andy Reid's usage (or lack thereof) is still more potential than productive fantasy play.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC OAK 3322 ***
Raiders lead NFL
in kicker points given up,
so start your Santos!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jorvorskie Lane 10
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
WR Vincent Jackson 5-70,1
TE Brandon Myers 4-40

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB @CAR 20000020012 ***
Volume begats at least modest success against Carolina's pass D, as the last four QBs with 40 or more attempts have all thrown multiple TDs as well. Winston threw for 287 and 2 on 43 attempts in the previous meeting, but he's only been in the 40s or higher twice all season so temper expectations accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Charles Sims, TB @CAR 2004301000 ***
Sims scored a receiving TD in the earlier meeting with Carolina as Bucs RBs compiled 67 receiving yards. And the Panthers are just a couple weeks removed from Shane Vereen's 8-43-1 receiving line against them. Sims tallied a receiving score last week and has 12-158 receiving over the past three games, so there's PPR and performance upside in this matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @CAR 5001100000 ***
Martin rushed for 106 yards and a TD in the earlier meeting with Carolina, and as he's still very much in contention for the rushing title he'll get plenty of carries. Asking for another hundo is optimistic, however.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @CAR 003300000 ***
Evans mustered 3-32 against Josh Norman and the Panthers in the earlier meeting while Vincent Jackson went off for 10-147-1 on 15 targets. No VJax this week means more Norman for Evans; he still might be force-fed targets, but the upside is limited by Carolina's pass defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB @CAR 002300000 ***
The upside would be Humphries capitalizing on Carolina's focus on Mike Evans and having the kind of day Vincent Jackson had (10-147-1) against the Panthers. The more likely outcome is another non-fantasy helper for a tertiary Tampa Bay target.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donteea Dye, TB @CAR 001300000 ***
While Vincent Jackson's absence opens a door, Dye has yet to top one catch in a game so he's not rushing through that opening any time soon.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB @CAR 002200000 ***
ASJ was absent for the earlier meeting with Carolina; now he's back, with 22 targets in the past month and touchdowns in each of the past two games. The Panthers haven't given up as much as 50 yards to a TE since Week 10, only two TE TDs in that span, so lower expectations accordingly.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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