Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 120,1 3-20
WR Jason Avant 3-30
WR Jeremy Maclin 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

QB Alex Smith, KC BUF 30000018010 ***
Only a Week 8 rushing score stands between Smith and six straight weeks of sub-20 point fantasy efforts. The Bills have held three of four--including Tom Brady last week--below that threshold, with only Ryan Fitzpatrick's 20.7 outing snapping the streak. So there's not a lot of fantasy upside to Smith this week.
RB Spencer Ware, KC BUF 8011100000 ***
Ware tore up the Chargers last week in relief of the injured Charcandrick West, but the Bolts don't put up much resistance to any ground game. The Bills are a different animal, having allowed only one 100-yard game on the year. That said, Ware should see the bulk of the touches in an RB-centric offense so he at least warrants fantasy consideration if West remains sidelined.
RB Charcandrick West, KC BUF 00000000 *
West didn't practice on Wednesday and his availability for Sunday is in doubt. Check back on Friday for a clearer view of his Week 12 outlook.
WR Albert Wilson, KC BUF 003301000 *
There's barely enough for any wideout to carve out fantasy value, let alone a wingman to blip on the fantasy radar. On the bright side, the Bills have allowed multiple wideouts to score and/or top 60 yards in four straight games so there's a chance Wilson does something to help your fantasy squad.
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC BUF 003400000 ***
Maclin is KC's WR1 in theory, but he hasn't done anything of fantasy note in a couple weeks. The Bills aren't a shutdown pass D but it won't be easy for Maclin to get his so temper expectations accordingly.
TE Travis Kelce, KC BUF 005500000 ***
Buffalo hasn't allowed a TE TD since Week 6 or a tight end to top 40 yards since Week 2. Meanwhile, the Chiefs still refuse to lean on Kelce as a critical element of their offense; he's scored once since Week 1 and hasn't seen double-digit targets since Week 3. While he should be an every-week fantasy play, between his under-usage and the matchup you have better fantasy options at your disposal.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC BUF 4422 ***
Lots of things are trending upwards in KC--including Cairo, who has nine points or more in four straight. Buffalo isn't an easy matchup, but right now Santos has a hot hand worth riding.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jorvorskie Lane 10
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
WR Vincent Jackson 5-70,1
TE Brandon Myers 4-40
PK Connor Barth 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

QB Jameis Winston, TB @IND 0000026021 ***
Winston snapped out of his slump with a five-TD performance against Philly; an Indy secondary that's allowed multiple touchdown tosses in three straight offers another opportunity for a fantasy helper.
RB Doug Martin, TB @IND 7001100000 ***
Martin rolls in after a monster 27-235 outing against the Eagles, his fourth game in the past seven with at least 140 yards from scrimmage. Indy has been better of late, but there are multiple ways this goes right for Martin: on the ground, combo-wise, or via the score against a Colts D that's surrendered a dozen RB TDs this season.
RB Charles Sims, TB @IND 2003200000 ***
Even as Martin blew up last week Sims was carving out 69 yards of his own, with a touchdown catch to boot. Indy gave up two RB receiving TDs last week, suggesting there could be a healthy helping of leftovers for Sims again this week.
WR Mike Evans, TB @IND 006901000 ***
The return of Vincent Jackson cut into Evans' ridiculous target totals, but he still found the end zone and did enough yardage damage to be a strong fantasy helper. Tough to see him getting big targets if Vontae Davis is shadowing him, but he's still a matchup problem and a huge red zone threat--more than enough to keep him fantasy relevant even against a tough cover corner.
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @IND 004601000 **
Jackson scored in his first game back from injury, and now he'll face an Indy D that's allowed a dozen WR TDs--two thirds of them to secondary receivers. Bodes well for another strong showing from VJax this week.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB @IND 00000000 *
All signs point towards ASJ returning to action, his first since being injured one week after a 5-110-2 opener. Indy has surrendered four TE TDs in the past five games and four games of 50 yards or more in that span; they should provide a warm welcome for Seferian-Jenkins' return.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, TB @IND 3222 ***
Barth's hot start with the Bucs has slowed, with single field goals each of the past two games. A Colts D that's given up one or fewer three-pointers in three of the last four doesn't project to offer much help.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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