Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 120,1 3-20
WR Jason Avant 3-30
WR Jeremy Maclin 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

QB Alex Smith, KC @CIN 0000023022 ***
It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for Smith to dink and dunk his way to a couple touchdowns, like every quarterback the Bengals have faced before him. After all, the Chiefs aren't going to run on Cincy so there will be plenty of passing work for Jamaal Charles. But don't expect gaudy yardage; take your two TDs (maybe) and be happy.
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @CIN 7005301000 ***
Cincy has given up the second-most RB receptions, fourth-most RB receiving yards, and most RB receiving touchdowns. So even if Charles can't get going on the ground, he'll find a way to make his appointed fantasy rounds.
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC @CIN 005600000 ***
Does Jeremy Maclin have a Steve Smith in him? Probably not, but his lion's share of the KC downfield passing game should still net him enough to be a fantasy helper.
TE Travis Kelce, KC @CIN 006901000 ***
After giving up 103 yards to Ravens tight ends last week, the Bengals likely don't have an answer for a legit (and heavily targeted) talent like Kelce.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @CIN 2222 ***
The Bengals don't give up many field goals, which is okay because Santos doesn't kick many. Of course, that's bad news if you're looking to Cairo for fantasy help.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jorvorskie Lane 10
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
WR Vincent Jackson 5-70,1
TE Brandon Myers 4-40

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

QB Jameis Winston, TB CAR 20000020011 ***
It's been a while since a Bucs QB had a quality fantasy outing against the Panthers--Josh Freeman in 2012, to be precise. Doesn't look like that will change here, as Winston is still getting settled in Tampa's offense and Carolina has given up just two passing scores through three games.
RB Doug Martin, TB CAR 5002200000 ***
Martin has three games of 90-plus yards in four meetings with the Panthers, but thus far this year we've seen more of the back who stumbled to nine yards on nine carries in the front end of last season's series than anything resembling the other three outings. Best wait for the preseason version of Martin to return before using a lineup spot on him.

Update: Martin is listed as questionable. A tough matchup, a capable backup who outshone him last week, and multiple injuries make him an extremely difficult fantasy play this week.
RB Charles Sims, TB CAR 3003200000 ***
You could make a tepid case for Sims in performance leagues based on his role as the Bucs' pass-catching back and a Carolina defense that's allowed at least 50 RB receiving yards in every game. Maybe "tepid" is too strong a word.
WR Mike Evans, TB CAR 007601000 ***
Evans finally showed up last week, claiming more targets, catches, and receiving yards than the rest of the Bucs' wideouts combined. The heavy targeting should continue here, though with lesser results against a secondary that hasn't let a wideout top 80 yards this season and has surrendered only one WR TD on the year.
WR Vincent Jackson, TB CAR 004500000 ***
More Evans means less VJax; against a secondary that's allowed a top-end game of 53 yards to secondary targets and surrendered only one WR TD all year, less is really bad.
TE Brandon Myers, TB CAR 004300000 ***
Myers was lightly used in Austin Seferian-Jenkins' absence last week. To expect more than his 3-18 would be aggressive given the matchup with a Carolina defense that's surrendered a total of 78 yards to the position this season.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

a d v e r t i s e m e n t