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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 120,1 3-20
RB Shaun Draughn 20 2-20
RB Peyton Hillis
RB Dexter McCluster
WR Donnie Avery 4-60
WR Jonathan Baldwin
WR Dwayne Bowe 7-80,1
WR Steve Breaston 4-50
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40
TE Tony Moeaki 1-10
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @DEN 6003200000 ***
The Chiefs' lone offensive weapon needs 44 yards to reach the 1,500-yard mark. He hit triple digits against a tough Broncos' run D in the earlier meeting, and you assume he'll get the carries necessary to hit his milestone. Then again, we've gone broke trying to understand what Romeo Crennel is thinking so there are no guarantees.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dexter McCluster, KC @DEN 005300000 ***
McCluster is putting up numbers that make him the Chiefs' WR1. That's more an indictment of KC's passing game than an endorsement of McCluster's productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jonathan Baldwin, KC @DEN 005600000 ***
Baldwin has the only Chiefs WR TD in the past two months. Sorry, that's just not enough to warrant a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donnie Avery, KC @DEN 004600000 ***
Avery has been an inconsistent wingman to Reggie Wayne, and the last time Indy faced the Texans it was TY Hilton who had the more productive game. With playoff positioning at stake expect Andrew Luck to lean heavily on Wayne once again, and the Texans have a soft spot for TEs as well. That leaves Avery and Hilton splitting scraps, making either one a tough fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devon Wylie, KC @DEN 003400000 ***
Bonus points if you were able to identify Wylie as the "other" Chiefs' WR. Sorry, those bonus points do not translate to fantasy points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Anthony Fasano, KC @DEN 002200000 ***
Fasano only had one catch in the last meeting with the Pats. No fantasy value here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, KC @DEN 2111 ***
The Chiefs have more games with single-digit points (five) than games with 20-plus (four). That means limited scoring opportunities for Succop.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 220,1
RB Brian Leonard 2-20
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
WR Vincent Jackson 5-70,1
WR Steve Smith 4-40
WR Mike Williams 4-60
TE Dallas Clark 2-20
PK Connor Barth 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Freeman, TB @ATL 0000026011 ***
Riding a five-game losing streak, about all the Bucs have going for them is that Atlanta is more concerned about resting regulars for the postseason than winning this game. Expect Freeman to get the 157 yards he needs for a 4,000-yard season, and probably even a little more.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @ATL 10014300000 ***
The ROY award is out of reach, but Martin would still like to wrap up his first NFL season on a strong note. He scored twice in the earlier meeting with Atlanta, and he should see plenty of touches against a disinterested defense to pad his stat totals.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Williams, TB @ATL 005701000 ***
Whatever resources remain in the Atlanta secondary after the regulars have been benched will likely be focusing on Vincent Jackson. Williams has made a killing on similar situations all season, and he's in line to do so again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @ATL 004800000 ***
Jackson is a favored target of Josh Freeman, so with Freeman needing some yardage to crack 4K he'll continue to see his looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tiquan Underwood, TB @ATL 002300000 ***
Underwood has been Tampa Bay's third man in in the passing game, but it hasn't constituted much in the way of fantasy help. Unless Vincent Jackson and/or Mike Williams get an early and extended breather, it probably won't help here either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dallas Clark, TB @ATL 004400000 ***
Clark hasn't been a huge focus in the Tampa Bay passing game, but he's veteran enough to know that he's either auditioning for more looks next year or putting together tape to show his next prospective employer.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, TB @ATL 2122 ***
Barth might get a few additional opportunities against a disinterested Atlanta defense, but that's hardly something to hang your fantasy hat on.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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