Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 120,1 3-20
WR Jeremy Maclin 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

QB Alex Smith, KC NO 20100024010 ***
Smith is always a risky recommendation, so being overly tempted by this matchup isn't necessarily wise. There's some upside, but safely, he's a bench player because of game flow.
RB Spencer Ware, KC NO 10013300000 ***
Ware should once again be a workhorse as Jamaal Charles finds his way. The Saints are the best matchup a running back can find, allowing a touchdown every 12.1 carries and 34.9 PPR points per game.
RB Jamaal Charles, KC NO 4002100000 *
Is this the week? No, probably not. JC is going to be slowly worked in, despite suggestions to the contrary, but that won't matter against the NFL's worst fantasy defense of his position. Risky, but there is upside.
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC NO 005700000 ***
No team has allowed more yardage to receivers on a per-game basis than the Saints. Maclin has a good shot at double figures for PPR owners.
WR Chris Conley, KC NO 003400000 ***
Conley has been involved in every game, catching at least two balls. He's athletic and has good size, but the system prevents him from posting huge numbers. The Saints could change all of that with their fourth worst defense of wideouts.
TE Travis Kelce, KC NO 006801000 ***
Kelce takes on an indifferent matchup from a fantasy perspective. The Saints have allowed 25-265-2 to tight ends in five games, or 12.7 PPR points per game. In their last two games, the Saints have given up big points to San Diego and Carolina tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC NO 1144 ***
Field goals don't keep pace with Drew Brees, and the Saints struggle at preventing touchdowns.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 40 4-30
WR Vincent Jackson 5-70,1
TE Brandon Myers 4-40

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

QB Jameis Winston, TB @SF 10000026020 ***
Sometimes it is easy to forget that Winston is only 22 years old. That means there will be growing pains, as we have seen with his 2016 peaks and valleys. The matchup is technically neutral, but the Niners have allowed 12 scoring strikes in six games. Play Famous Jameis only if you must.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, TB @SF 9012100000 ***
Martin will miss at least this week with a setback in is return from a hamstring strain. Rodgers takes the start with a tremendous chance against one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Three different backs have already logged 100 yards on the 49ers so Rodgers is an excellent start.
WR Mike Evans, TB @SF 0071002000 ***
It should be the Mike Evans Show in Week 7. San Francisco has allowed 10 TDs on only 62 catches, which is the worst ratio in the NFL. He is having a fine year and will give this D fits.
WR Donteea Dye, TB @SF 003500000 ***
Dye should see some looks with Vincent Jackson on IR. There is the outside chance he produces, given the overwhelmingly good matchup, but counting on such is a risky endeavor.
WR Adam Humphries, TB @SF 003400000 ***
Humphries will pick up the scraps in this one. San Fran offers a great matchup, so there's mild upside, but most of the damage has been done via the TD ball (one per 6.2 catches).
TE Cameron Brate, TB @SF 003400000 ***
Averaging seven targets over his last three games, Brate has mild upside with decent matchups. This is trending neutral, and Brate is a sketchy fantasy play even without Vincent Jackson on the field.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Roberto Aguayo, TB @SF 5233 ***
The Niners have allowed a league-high 22 extra point kicks (21 made) and a decent amount of field goals (10-for-11). The rookie should be plenty busy, but trusting his accuracy is a shaky situation.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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