Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 120,1 3-20
RB Joe McKnight 10
WR Donnie Avery 4-60
WR Dwayne Bowe 7-80,1
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

QB Alex Smith, KC @DEN 20000024022 ***
Smith had two of his better fantasy games playing catch-up to Peyton Manning last season. On the heels of a putrid performance against the Titans it would be tough to bank on him for a reprise; then again, garbage time stats count the same.
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @DEN 6015300000 ***
With a paltry workload the likes of which he hadn't seen since Week 8 of 2012, Charles was a non-fantasy factor in Week 1. Expect Andy Reid to correct that error, with expectations set somewhere between the 72 and 120 yards from scrimmage he generated in last season's home-and-home. Hey, it's better than last week's crapola, that's for sure.
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @DEN 005500000 ***
After sitting out a one-game suspension Bowe is primed to make his 2014 debut. He posted similar stat lines against the Broncos last season, 4-57-1 and 3-56. There's no question he's the go-to guy in this passing game, but that didn't prove to be enough last year and you'll have to cross your fingers and bank on the touchdown for him to have significant fantasy value here.
WR Junior Hemingway, KC @DEN 002400000 ***
In theory the Chiefs will have to throw to keep pace with Peyton Manning & Co. and secondary targets such as Hemingway should have value. However, in last season's series with Denver--under those exact circumstances--only Dwayne Bowe scored or topped 50 yards. So, theory disproved.
TE Travis Kelce, KC @DEN 004501000 **
Despite one less target than Anthony Fasano last week, Kelce produced more yardage; he just didn't get the touchdown. It's a coin flip between the two tight ends, but Kelce is the young up-and-comer so he calls "tails" this week.
TE Anthony Fasano, KC @DEN 003300000 **
Fasano scored in both ends of the season series with Denver last year, plus he scored last week. And the Broncos gave up a TE TD while facing the talented Indy tandem of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener last week. So we're sayin' there's a chance; we're just sayin' we prefer Kelce's chances this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @DEN 0022 ***
The Brazilian went 50/50 on last week's attempts, and given that you don't keep pace with Peyton Manning by settling for field goals he's unlikely to see a dramatic enough uptick in chances or productivity to warrant fantasy consideration here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jorvorskie Lane 10
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
WR Vincent Jackson 5-70,1
TE Brandon Myers 4-40

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

QB Josh McCown, TB STL 20000022021 ***
McCown's Week 1 stat line looked a whole lot like what the Rams gave up to Matt Cassel--and neither was much fantasy help. While he did take this defense for 352 and 2 as a Bear last year, those numbers are too optimistic for his current offense.
RB Doug Martin, TB STL 5002100000 ***
Martin's Week 1 injury was deemed "minor", meaning he should be available for this tilt. He'll face a defense that held Adrian Peterson in check last week and limited the Martin-less Bucs to 37 RB rushing yards in a meeting late last season. In other words, there's little reason to be optimistic.
Update: All systems go for Martin, who returned to practice and is expected to resume his role as the lead dog in Tampa Bay's backfield committee.
WR Vincent Jackson, TB STL 005701000 ***
VJax went 5-98 against this defense with little help last year. Now he has to hope his improved supporting cast doesn't usurp his looks to the point of sapping his fantasy value.
WR Mike Evans, TB STL 004500000 ***
Evans saw as many targets as erstwhile WR1 Vincent Jackson last week, but this is still VJax's show and the matchup doesn't suggest enough in the way of passing game numbers to feed multiple mouths.
WR Chris Owusu, TB STL 002300000 ***
Owusu swiped a TD out from under Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans last week, but he can't be relied upon for anything resembling consistent fantasy help.
TE Brandon Myers, TB STL 003301000 ***
No writeup available
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB STL 00000000 *
Brandon Myers saw the vast majority of Tampa Bay's tight end targets last week, but ASJ's athleticism is not to be denied. Against a defense that let Kyle Rudolph find the end zone last week, he at least has a shot at a score.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB STL 2222 ***
Murray wasn't given much in the way of opportunity last week; until that changes, you can find a more palatable fantasy kicking option.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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