FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 120,1 3-20
RB Joe McKnight 10
WR Donnie Avery 4-60
WR Dwayne Bowe 7-80,1
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @OAK 0000018010 ***
Smith has one multiple touchdown affair in his past six outings. For fantasy purposes you can do significantly better than a game manager like him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @OAK 9023200000 ***
The last time Charles saw these Raiders he scored five touchdowns; no reason to think he can't do significant fantasy damage once again, as this iteration of the Oakland defense is giving up 160-plus yards per game to opposing running backs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @OAK 004600000 ***
Bowe's high volume of targets suggest he'll be the Chiefs receiver that takes advantage of an Oakland D that's allowed at least one WR TD in six of the past seven games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Junior Hemingway, KC @OAK 002200000 ***
The Chiefs can barely fill the fantasy coffers of one receiver, and target volume says that receiver will be someone other than Hemingway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @OAK 004401000 **
Kelce's seeing the targets, but aside from allowing a pair of scores to Julius Thomas the Raiders have been solid of late against tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @OAK 2233 ***
Few teams are more point- or kicker-friendly than the Raiders, but Santos isn't big on taking advantage. Between his propensity for single-field goal games and the Raiders being slightly stiffer defensively at home, best get your kicks elsewhere.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jorvorskie Lane 10
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
WR Vincent Jackson 5-70,1
TE Brandon Myers 4-40

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, TB @CHI 10000027021 ***
McCown has been fantasy relevant in both of his starts since replacing Mike Glennon, and now he gets a revenge game against the Bears. Why not?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Charles Sims, TB @CHI 4004200000 ***
Sims has done nothing of fantasy note in his two NFL games, and a change in that plan is unlikely in Chicago this week.
Update: Sims is listed as questionable after closing the week with a couple of limited practice sessions. Like he needs further dings to his fantasy prospectus.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bobby Rainey, TB @CHI 1002200000 ***
Rainey is playing understudy to Charles Sims, and neither has been particularly effective. It's not a favorable matchup, so no reason to reach for him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @CHI 0071101000 ***
Evans is smoking hot right now, with three straight 100-yard games and five touchdowns in that span. No reason to think Chicago has an answer the Redskins, Falcons, and Browns did not.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @CHI 006900000 ***
The Packers are the only team to produce multiple productive fantasy receivers against Chicago, and Jackson has definitely fallen off to wingman duties in Tampa Bay. He's a fringe fantasy contributor at best this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB @CHI 004401000 ***
The Bears have surrendered eight TE TDs in just the past four games, and with Seferian-Jenkins taking over as the go-to tight end in Tampa he's definitely a fantasy option this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB @CHI 1122 ***
It's about as favorable a matchup as you'll find--the Bears have given up multiple field goals in five straight and eight of 10 on the year--but Murray has yet to tally a double-digit points game so even with the matchup he's a stretch of a fantasy start.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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