FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 120,1 3-20
RB Joe McKnight 10
WR Jason Avant 3-30
WR Donnie Avery 4-60
WR Dwayne Bowe 7-80,1
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @PIT 0000024021 ***
Smith has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games and should be able to replicate that feat against a Steelers secondary that's served up multiple scoring strikes in eight straight. That's what passes for a big game for Smith.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @PIT 9004401000 ***
Charles is battling head, ankle, and knee injuries so he's been ceding touches to Knile Davis. He's still a must-start, but the fact that Davis swiped two scores last week alone takes some of the luster off.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @PIT 006900000 ***
It's been 17 games, 222 targets, 132 catches, 1,628 yards since a Chiefs wide receiver last scored a touchdown. That streak ends here, against a Steelers secondary that's allowed at least one WR TD in seven straight games, and Bowe is the most likely Chief to do it.
Update: Alas, just as opportunity knocks in Kanas City Bowe finds himself unable to answer. He's missed practice all week due to illness, and he's listed as questionable. There's simply not enough upside to offset that risk; seek fantasy assistance elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, KC @PIT 004500000 ***
Wilson matched Dwayne Bowe's catches and yardage last week and recorded the second-most targets among KC wideouts as well. Memo to Wilson: if you're going to emulate someone, aim higher.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @PIT 005601000 ***
More reliable targets, i.e. not sharing with Anthony Fasano, and this favorable matchup would make Kelce one of the top tight end plays of the week. Settle for solid and hope Fasano stays out of the mix.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @PIT 2222 ***
Raise your hand if you remember all the way back to Week 8. That's the last time Santos had double-digit points, as well as the last time Pittsburgh gave up double-digit points to an opposing kicker. Two months of evidence suggests you should get your fantasy kicks elsewhere this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jorvorskie Lane 10
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
WR Vincent Jackson 5-70,1
TE Brandon Myers 4-40

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, TB GB 0000025021 ***
Green Bay's defense is nothing special unless they've got you down by a couple touchdowns and force you to be one-dimensional. On the road they've been less dominant, which should allow the Bucs to remain multifaceted and keep McCown from playing the role of sitting duck in the pocket. He had some success against Green Bay last year as a bear, but his upside feels like two TDs and something in the mid-200s; you'll want more during championship week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB GB 400000000 ***
We've seen flashes of the Martin of old--not enough to dust him off for a fantasy start, but enough to plant a seed in the backs of minds heading into next year. Splitting touches with Charles Sims takes a bite out of his fantasy potential as well; consider him a placeholder for now.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Charles Sims, TB GB 1003300000 ***
Sims could see extended work as a pass-catcher if the Packers do in fact get out to a big lead and force the Bucs to throw, so there's some fantasy value here for PPR leaguers. Aside from that... not much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB GB 005802000 ***
Big-bodied receivers--Julio Jones (259 & 1), Brandon LaFell (2 TDs), Jordan Matthews (107 &1), Brandon Marshall (112 & 1), and more--have success against the Packers' secondary. And Evans is plenty big-bodied--not to mention heavily targeted and a red-zone monster. Have to love his opportunity here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB GB 005900000 ***
Green Bay has noticeable difficulty handling larger receivers--like Jackson, for example, who has 239 yards and four touchdowns in two career meetings with the Packers. That trend has continued this season through the likes of Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Kelvin Benjamin and even Jordan Matthews and Brandon LaFell. So while VJax still plays second fiddle to Mike Evans (another big WR), he should have ample opportunity to build a fantasy portfolio of his own this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB GB 1122 ***
Murray's next game with double-digit points will be his first. No reason to expect it to happen this week.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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