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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: MIN 20, WAS 23 (Line: WAS by 2.5)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Jerome Simpson, Adrian Peterson

Players to Watch: Fred Davis

The 4-1 Vikings are on a three game winning streak that started with their surprise trap win over the 49ers but are only 1-1 on the road and lost in Indianapolis. The 2-3 Redskins are 0-2 at home and looking to crawl out of the NFC cellar. The Vikings have been on a nice run of wins but the home town Redskins have to pull together here or start to write off the season.

The Vikes won 33-26 at Washington last year.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET -----
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI -----
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS ----- 15 @STL -----
7 ARI ----- 16 @HOU -----
8 TB ----- 17 GB -----
9 @SEA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Christian Ponder 10 300,2
RB Toby Gerhart 20 2-10
RB Adrian Peterson 80 3-20
WR Devin Aromashodu 3-40
WR Greg Jennings
WR Jerome Simpson 2-40
TE Kyle Rudolph 6-60,1
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Vikings have their own brand of "Triplets" between Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and Christian Ponder but it may be a bit early to consider the quarterback as a major difference maker quite yet. He has scored twice in three of his games but was blanked in the other two. His string of no interceptions ended against the Titans of all teams and he threw two once he saw how easy it was. Ponder gets a crack at a big game this week thanks to facing the Skins secondary but will likely be back to just one wideout in Harvin because Jerome Simpson may not play.

Percy Harvin has helped carry this team with productive games in every week other than the last road game and he finally scored when the Titans visited last week. He's adding a couple of runs per week and usually coming up with eight or nine catches in most games. Going against the worst secondary in the league should only make that even better.

Jerome Simpson is having problems with his back and never made a catch against the Titans. He is being checked out this week and may not suit up. Until they figure out what is causing the weakness and numbness in his lower leg, he's not going to be productive even if he plays. Problem here is that there are no other wideouts of any note. Devin Aromashodu will step up but that meant nothing before Simpson could play. Michael Jenkins also figures in but only for a couple of catches if that. Harvin has been a trooper to be sure with 38 catches on the year already but he cannot do it all.

Kyle Rudolph adds the occasional touchdown catch here but still has not produced more than 36 yards in a game since the season opener.

Adrian Peterson is a medical marvel to be sure. And he is gaining 4.4 yards per carry but has only one 100 yard rushing game and has not scored since week one. Peterson has been solid with around 80 rush yards per week and does supplement his production with a couple of catches as well. If he would find the end zone any time soon would make a big difference. He is certainly good with yardage but so far never great and scoreless for the last four games.

The Skins have never allowed fewer than 300 passing yards per opponent and that benefits the wideouts and tight ends with equal blessings. The run has been mostly stuffed by the Skins who have allowed just three rushing scores and yet never more than 83 rushing yards to any runner. As always with the Skins, this will be all about throwing the ball and taking advantage of the weak secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 22 20 18 17 4 10
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 30 9 32 31 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Christian Ponder, MIN GB 20000019001 ***
Ponder hasn't topped 200 yards since Week 10 and has three passing TDs in the last five games. He's all about managing the game, and fantasy teams don't need to have the game managed for them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN GB 12015300000 ***
Peterson is playing through an abdomen injury... but if he can rush for 1,800 yards in the year since having his knee surgically repaired, what's another 100 in a "win and you're in" game? There's also a reasonable chance AD reprises the 210 he dropped on Green Bay in the earlier meeting, which would give him the NFL single-season rushing record. After all he's accomplished to this point, now is not the time to start betting against him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Jennings, MIN GB 004501000 ***
Jennings posted 4-46 in the earlier meeting with Minnesota, his first game back after an extended injury absence. He scored last week and now has a month of games under his belt. Add in Jordy Nelson's questionable status and Randall Cobb's bum ankle and Jennings could be back atop the Packers' passing game pecking order this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN GB 003400000 ***
Wright's 53 yards last week was the most by a Minnesota wideout since his 62 yard outburst back in Week 10. So if you're forced to start a Vikings wide receiver, he's the best of a sorry lot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jerome Simpson, MIN GB 002300000 ***
Simpson is an occasional contributor in the passing game, but nowhere near worthy of a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN GB 004401000 ***
Rudolph scored last week and also scored in the earlier meeting with the Packers. His yardage of late hasn't been enough to justify a fantasy start--to be expected when a big day for your passing game means triple-digit yardage--but his nine touchdowns have him in range of the Vikings' team record for tight ends. Not that they'll be preoccupied with the playoff berth or another record, but it does increase the likelihood Rudy finds the end zone again this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN GB 3211 ***
The Pro Bowler missed his only attempt in the earlier meeting with Green Bay, but with eight treys in the past two games and a big leg that's already netted him the rookie record for 50-yard field goals he's tough to bet against.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN ----- 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 40 250,1
RB Alfred Morris 80,1 2-10
RB Evan Royster 3-20
WR Pierre Garcon 4-60
WR Leonard Hankerson 5-60
WR Santana Moss 4-40
TE Fred Davis 5-60,1
PK Kai Forbath 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Skins have tumbled to a 2-0 mark thanks to playing in New Orleans and Tampa Bay still have not won at home. This week is easily their best chance of a win and along with the Panthers in week nine may be the only time they will be favored this year.

Robert Griffin III took a break as the best fantasy quarterback last week when he was knocked out of the Falcons game with a "mild" concussion. All signs point to him playing this week though he still needs to get through a week of practice free and clear before he can play. Griffin had been throwing for scores and also rushing in a touchdown for the previous three matchups. Kirk Cousins came in and gave it a valiant effort last week but it should be back to Bob this time.

Alfred Morris is still a fantasy gold mine considering that he has four touchdowns on the season and has never rushed for fewer than 78 yards in any game, He is on a two game streak with over 100 yards. His only failing is that they almost never throw to him. Then again, he is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and just under 100 yards per game.

Fred Davis has assumed a consistent role by now with his last three games producing never less than four catches and averaging just over 70 yards per game. With the wide receivers less than stellar, Davis has a place in this passing game that should only grow bigger. The wideouts have yet to distinguish themselves from each other and that even includes Pierre Garcon. The Redskins have five different wide receivers who all have between 114 and 184 yards after five games. That's a whole lot of mediocrity.

The Vikings defense has been very good - far exceeding expectations. But this is their third road game and they lost to the Colts and then clipped divisional rivals of the Lions. This is a big test so long as Griffin is able to play healthy and in his full capacity. The Vikings rushing defense has been top notch so far but they have never had to chase a quarterback.

The Redskins have to rise up this week because this is almost a must-win game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 3 17 15 20 16 2
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 14 3 15 29 11 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Robert Griffin III, WAS DAL 50000024020 ****
Griffin threw for 304 yards and four TDs in Dallas last time but two of those were bombs that connected. Griffin has been far less productive in almost every other game thanks to the defense and rushing game which both come into play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS DAL 11011100000 *****
Morris already ran for 113 yards and one score in Dallas and the Cowboys defense continues to be victimized up the middle. He should be a lock for good to great yards and one score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS DAL 007901000 *****
Garcon has been money every week since he posted 4-86 and a TD in Dallas. He's a lock to be heavily relied on and should see one of the passing scores as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Santana Moss, WAS DAL 004401000 ****
Moss has long been a Cowboy killer and posted 4-42 and one touchdown in Dallas this year. He's been well below 60 yards every game for almost the entire season though. His eight touchdowns shows he's a sure threat in the redzone but rarely used otherwise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Logan Paulsen, WAS DAL 002200000 ***
The Redskins have never used their TE's enough this year to matter. All combined they have two touchdowns and just one for Paulsen.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS DAL 2133 ****
WAS kicker always a marginal start.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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