FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: MIN 20, WAS 23 (Line: WAS by 2.5)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Jerome Simpson, Adrian Peterson

Players to Watch: Fred Davis

The 4-1 Vikings are on a three game winning streak that started with their surprise trap win over the 49ers but are only 1-1 on the road and lost in Indianapolis. The 2-3 Redskins are 0-2 at home and looking to crawl out of the NFC cellar. The Vikings have been on a nice run of wins but the home town Redskins have to pull together here or start to write off the season.

The Vikes won 33-26 at Washington last year.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET -----
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI -----
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS ----- 15 @STL -----
7 ARI ----- 16 @HOU -----
8 TB ----- 17 GB -----
9 @SEA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 220,1
RB Adrian Peterson 80 3-20
TE Kyle Rudolph 6-60,1
PK Kai Forbath 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Vikings have their own brand of "Triplets" between Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and Christian Ponder but it may be a bit early to consider the quarterback as a major difference maker quite yet. He has scored twice in three of his games but was blanked in the other two. His string of no interceptions ended against the Titans of all teams and he threw two once he saw how easy it was. Ponder gets a crack at a big game this week thanks to facing the Skins secondary but will likely be back to just one wideout in Harvin because Jerome Simpson may not play.

Percy Harvin has helped carry this team with productive games in every week other than the last road game and he finally scored when the Titans visited last week. He's adding a couple of runs per week and usually coming up with eight or nine catches in most games. Going against the worst secondary in the league should only make that even better.

Jerome Simpson is having problems with his back and never made a catch against the Titans. He is being checked out this week and may not suit up. Until they figure out what is causing the weakness and numbness in his lower leg, he's not going to be productive even if he plays. Problem here is that there are no other wideouts of any note. Devin Aromashodu will step up but that meant nothing before Simpson could play. Michael Jenkins also figures in but only for a couple of catches if that. Harvin has been a trooper to be sure with 38 catches on the year already but he cannot do it all.

Kyle Rudolph adds the occasional touchdown catch here but still has not produced more than 36 yards in a game since the season opener.

Adrian Peterson is a medical marvel to be sure. And he is gaining 4.4 yards per carry but has only one 100 yard rushing game and has not scored since week one. Peterson has been solid with around 80 rush yards per week and does supplement his production with a couple of catches as well. If he would find the end zone any time soon would make a big difference. He is certainly good with yardage but so far never great and scoreless for the last four games.

The Skins have never allowed fewer than 300 passing yards per opponent and that benefits the wideouts and tight ends with equal blessings. The run has been mostly stuffed by the Skins who have allowed just three rushing scores and yet never more than 83 rushing yards to any runner. As always with the Skins, this will be all about throwing the ball and taking advantage of the weak secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 22 20 18 17 4 10
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 30 9 32 31 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Bradford, MIN DAL 0000027010 ***
Dallas has given up the third highest per-game yardage figure since Week 7 at 306.2, so Bradford has a hint of upside if WR Stefon Diggs returns. The Cowboys have allowed quarterbacks to average a TD every 16.9 completions, which is the ninth toughest defense of this category.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Asiata, MIN DAL 2012200000 ***
Dallas has yielded rushing touchdowns at the 10th easiest rate for the position. Over the past five weeks, the position has allowed 65.4 rushing yards per game in this time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN DAL 4001100000 ***
The Vikings face Dallas, a defense that has given up the 15th most points despite having the seventh best opportunity rating. The disconnect has been the offensive yardage allowed, which is only 114.2 per game since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN DAL 0081001000 **
Diggs should return after missing a week. The Cowboys went from being a strong defense of receivers to one of the more easily exploited units. In the last five weeks, the position has taken advantage of two key injuries and racked up averages of 15.8 receptions (3rd), 165.6 yards (11th) and 38.4 PPR points (11th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Thielen, MIN DAL 006700000 ***
Thielen is questionable but expected to play and should have an outside chance at contributing meaningful fantasy stats in PPR formats. He is risky, but the matchup is prime. Dallas has allowed the 11th most points per contest to the position in that scoring system over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN DAL 003200000 ***
Dallas has allowed the third most catches and ninth highest yardage average per game over the last five weeks, but tight ends have scored only once every 18 receptions.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, MIN DAL 3322 ***
The position has kicked the fourth highest average of field goal attempts since Week 7, although only one team has granted fewer extra point kicks in this time.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN ----- 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Pierre Garcon 4-60
WR DeSean Jackson 4-60,1
TE Vernon Davis 5-60

Pregame Notes: The Skins have tumbled to a 2-0 mark thanks to playing in New Orleans and Tampa Bay still have not won at home. This week is easily their best chance of a win and along with the Panthers in week nine may be the only time they will be favored this year.

Robert Griffin III took a break as the best fantasy quarterback last week when he was knocked out of the Falcons game with a "mild" concussion. All signs point to him playing this week though he still needs to get through a week of practice free and clear before he can play. Griffin had been throwing for scores and also rushing in a touchdown for the previous three matchups. Kirk Cousins came in and gave it a valiant effort last week but it should be back to Bob this time.

Alfred Morris is still a fantasy gold mine considering that he has four touchdowns on the season and has never rushed for fewer than 78 yards in any game, He is on a two game streak with over 100 yards. His only failing is that they almost never throw to him. Then again, he is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and just under 100 yards per game.

Fred Davis has assumed a consistent role by now with his last three games producing never less than four catches and averaging just over 70 yards per game. With the wide receivers less than stellar, Davis has a place in this passing game that should only grow bigger. The wideouts have yet to distinguish themselves from each other and that even includes Pierre Garcon. The Redskins have five different wide receivers who all have between 114 and 184 yards after five games. That's a whole lot of mediocrity.

The Vikings defense has been very good - far exceeding expectations. But this is their third road game and they lost to the Colts and then clipped divisional rivals of the Lions. This is a big test so long as Griffin is able to play healthy and in his full capacity. The Vikings rushing defense has been top notch so far but they have never had to chase a quarterback.

The Redskins have to rise up this week because this is almost a must-win game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 3 17 15 20 16 2
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 14 3 15 29 11 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @ARI 0000027021 ***
Arizona remains tough versus quarterbacks, giving up the eighth fewest points per game (19.1) since Week 7. Only one team has allowed fewer yards per game, and the Cards rank as the fourth best D in touchdown efficiency. That said, Cousins is still very playable for gamers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Kelley, WAS @ARI 4002101000 **
Dallas slowed the Kelley hype train last week, but the Cardinals present a decent shot at getting back on track. Running backs have scored six times in the last 98 carries and 102 offensive touches, which ranks second and third, respectively. Arizona ranks as the toughest against allowing combined yardage per game over the last five weeks, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS @ARI 2003200000 ***
This is the stoutest defense of pass-receiving backs in the past five weeks: Only eight catches for 59 yards have been permitted.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @ARI 007901000 ***
Crowder has authored six straight games of double-digit PPR points, including scoring TDs in four of those contests. Arizona is must stronger on the outside than in the slot, and receivers like Crowder have averaged the fifth most catches and seventh most yards per game over the last five weeks when facing the Cardinals.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @ARI 006500000 ***
Garcon has quietly put together a fine fantasy season. The veteran faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fifth most receptions and seventh most yards per game to receivers since Week 7 -- right up his alley for a WR3 PPR showing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @ARI 003400000 ***
D-Jax is an all-or-nothing play most of the time. Arizona has given up a TD ever 14.5 receptions, which is the ninth least efficient rate for receivers. Wideouts have scored the 11th fewest points per play against the Cards since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS @ARI 006500000 ***
Davis comes and goes which makes his utility suspect in any fantasy format. The Cardinals have destroyed tight ends over the last five weeks. Arizona is the toughest matchup for catches, yards, touchdown ease, and fantasy points against ... yikes.

Update: Jordan Reed will not play this week, which normally would be a great boost for Davis, but this matchup is stifling.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS @ARI 2233 ***
Arizona has granted twice as many extra point attempts as the seven field goal tries afforded to the position over the past five weeks.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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