Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: OAK 17, ATL 34 (Line: ATL by 9.5)

Players to Watch: Darren McFadden, Roddy White

The 1-3 Raiders come off their bye having somehow only beaten the Steelers. Their only two trips away from home produced at total losing score of 19-72 and then have never came closer than 22 points to their opponent.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL ----- 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Michael Crabtree 5-70
PK Sebastian Janikowski 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The new offense and defense being installed in Oakland remains a work in progress though the results are disappointing no matter what qualifier or rationale is given. Carson Palmer's passing has been far more anemic than last season and aside from the fluke three touchdowns against the Steelers, he scored only twice over three games. His worst effort yet was in Denver two weeks back when he only passed for 202 yards and no touchdowns. Palmer was throwing well last year with tons of yards and some scores using the same cast of receivers. This year - just not working out nearly as well in OC Greg Knapp's new scheme.

Worse of all is that Darren McFadden has gone from an oft-injured and yet wildly productive back to just a healthy guy who does almost nothing every week. He racked up 113 yards and a score on the visiting Steelers but otherwise has never gained more than 34 rushing yards in any game. Even his role as a receiver has declined to just a single meaningless catch. It is not that Mike Goodson or Taiwan Jones are cutting into his action. Jones does not even have a touch this season.

McFadden is completely boxed in on almost every play. He joins a growing cast of disappointing running backs. At least last year you got five or six great games from him. Now he just muddles along and kills your weekly score. He has a chance this week against the only real weakness of the Falcons but if he flops yet again it will be hard to start him without heavy consideration each remaining week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey missed one game with a concussion but is expected back for this tilt. He only has one score on the year and no more than 43 yards in any game. Denarius Moore has been much more productive with around 50 to 60 yards when he plays but he too has just one score and with only four catches per week for maybe 60 yards, he is not doing anyone favors. The rest of the wide receivers are so much worse as to be just blockers.

Brandon Meyers seemed to be one of the few productive pieces of the offense when he opened the year with three games of around 60 yards or so but just when people relied on that happening, he only had one catch for 22 yards in the most recent game. And he still has never scored.

Overall - this offense has been lethargic and bumbling. Now they hit the road where they have been distinctly worse. Going to Atlanta is no time to be a bad road team.

Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 20 11 27 13 21 32
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 12 21 1 20 1 7

QB Derek Carr, OAK @JAC 10000025020 ***
Carr should rebound a little after last week's letdown performance, but this isn't exactly an easy matchup. The Jaguars have allowed eight passing TDs in five games and just 233.3 per contest.
RB Latavius Murray, OAK @JAC 4002200000 **
Murray is progressing but remains uncertain to play.

Update: Murray is questionable and was limited Friday, so he's a true game-time decision. Should he start, playing him is a suspect choice. It would be a much easier decision if he had practiced in full on Friday.
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @JAC 2002200000 ***
Richard has value only if Latavius Murray doesn't play. Said value is middling. The Jaguars present a negative matchup for the position.
RB DeAndre Washington, OAK @JAC 200000000 ***
Washington faces a tough matchup and will split touches with Jalen Richard once again if Latavius Murray continues to miss time. Look elsewhere for a flier play.
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK @JAC 007901000 ***
Seven teams have given up a worse ratio of TDs per receptions, and Crabtree has been a TD monster in 2016. Start him with confidence.
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @JAC 002301000 ***
One out of every 10.4 catches by wideouts against the Jags has gone for a touchdown. That sounds right up Roberts' alley.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @JAC 005700000 ***
Four teams have been bigger pushovers than Jacksonville, and Cooper is on a roll. He must be in all PPR lineups and most of standard setups.
TE Clive Walford, OAK @JAC 002300000 ***
Walford isn't involved enough to warrant a lineup spot this week. Jacksonville has given up only four catches per game and one total touchdown in five appearances by tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @JAC 3222 ***
Kickers have gone a perfect 12-for-12 and 13-for-13 on FGAs and XPAs, respectively, against the Jags. Jano is a good streaming play.

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO -----
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI -----
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB -----
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO -----
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR -----
6 OAK ----- 15 NYG -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI ----- 17 TB -----
9 DAL ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 300,3
QB Matt Schaub 190,2
WR Julio Jones 6-80,1
TE Jacob Tamme 5-40,1
PK Matt Bryant 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Falcons are one of only two unbeaten teams left and this home game should get them to the bye week intact. But three of the wins came by a touchdown or less and against the visiting Panthers it was just a two point win probably thanks to a late Cam Newton fumble. While NFL East opponents remain on the upcoming schedule, this is still one of the easiest slate of games in the league and one that actually looks easier once we have a better idea what teams are like this year. Anything short of home field advantage throughout the playoffs is going to be a disappointment and a bit of a surprise at this point.

Matt Ryan has still thrown multiple touchdowns in every game and had healthy yardage as well. He's not had an off week yet and ranks near the top of all fantasy league scoring. Ryan scored 13 times through the air against only three interceptions. He rarely even hit in most games.

Michael Turner has enjoyed his season so far with a touchdown in each of the last four games but only one effort that netted him over 100 total yards. Turner should be fresh down the stretch thanks to only rushing the ball about 16 times per week. He's no fantasy god but offers valuable consistent production every week. Jacquizz Rodgers has been mostly a minimal contributor and is not busy enough to merit a fantasy start.

Tony Gonzalez is singing his swan song but it is drowning out everyone else. He's currently the top tight end in fantasy with four touchdowns and 39 catches for 388 yards. He is everything you thought you were getting when you grabbed Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham only you could have waited about five more rounds to net Gonzo.

Back at home means that Roddy White gets to score and have the big game. In two games in Atlanta, he has 16 catches for 271 yards and three touchdowns. In three away games, he only had 15 receptions for 210 yards and no scores. He did this last year. Apparently it is a secret agreement with Julio Jones who does the exact opposite. Jones caught 21 passes for 269 yards and four touchdowns but then only five receptions for 44 yards and no scores at home. Seriously - same thing last year. No need to explain it, just accept it as wonderfully consistent.

The Raiders present a defense weak enough in all areas that the fear is the Falcons let down and do not take the game nearly as serious as they should. They know they can win this. Even if they start in the fourth quarter, they can win this. Hopefully with only a bye the next week they take advantage of all the weaknesses of the Raiders defense.

Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 2 16 8 1 10 9
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 29 30 23 26 29 1

QB Matt Ryan, ATL SD 0000033031 ***
Following back-to-back trying matchups, Ryan should enjoy a home battle with San Diego's eighth weakest matchup for fantasy. Continue to roll with fantasy football's No. 1 passer.
RB Devonta Freeman, ATL SD 6006401000 ***
Freeman has returned to the must-play territory, so facing the second lamest defense of RBs is a nice boost for an already strong contributor. San Diego has allowed five rushing touchdowns and two more through the air, giving up the second most receptions in the NFL to RBs.
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL SD 3013300000 ***
Coleman should enjoy a fine game against the second worst defense of PPR RBs in the NFL. Lock him into your lineup and go along for the ride.
WR Julio Jones, ATL SD 0071202000 ***
Despite losing its best cornerback, San Diego is a midrange matchup for wideouts. They haven't faced a Julio Jones, however, and he's at home coming off a sour loss.
WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL SD 004500000 ***
Sanu should benefit from all of the extra attention to Julio Jones and the RBs. Unless he scores, however, we're talking low-end WR3 or flex value in PPR.
TE Jacob Tamme, ATL SD 003200000 ***
Tamme doesn't have much upside, and his production for gamers relies on touchdowns. That's not a good trait to have against a defense that has allowed only one by a tight end on 32 grabs.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Bryant, ATL SD 3344 ***
The matchup is narrowly on the neutral side, leaning positive. Atlanta's offense should be more than capable of hanging points on the Bolts.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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