FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: STL 16, MIA 20 (Line: MIA by 3.5)

Players Updated: Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas

Players to Watch: Any Rams receiver who even remotely makes you think of Amendola

The 3-2 Rams are breathing the sweet air of a winning record and took down the previously unbeaten Cardinals to get there. Their two previous trips away from St.. Louis were both losses though and the Dolphins come off a win in Cincinnati. No doubt a close game here that will be decided by turnovers and the lack of Danny Amendola.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF -----
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA ----- 15 MIN -----
7 GB ----- 16 @TB -----
8 NE ----- 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
STL @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 220,1
WR Kenny Britt 2-30
WR Chris Givens 2-40
WR Austin Pettis 2-20
TE Jared Cook 3-30,1
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The only bad news that came out of the Thursday win over the Cardinals was that Danny Amendola has a dislocated clavicle and will not return until week 12 at the earliest. Given that the chances that the Rams are going to go deep into the playoffs is minimal, it means that their best receiver will miss over half of the remaining games. The problem too is that left behind is absolutely no one that has the look of a #1 wideout.

Brandon Gibson scored in the first two games but has not produced more than two or three catches per game for more than 33 yards. The rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens have been complete nonfactors so far other than the one touchdown catch by Givens against the Cardinals who obviously did not see him as a viable receiver when he was all alone forty yards downfield. Steve Smith is a flop. Austin Pettis should get more work but overall what does it mean? Probably not much since the opportunities have been there unfulfilled all season.

Lance Kendricks caught his first touchdown of the year against the Cardinals but that was his only catch in the game. The lack of passing offense is going to become more obvious in road games, particularly in the second half of the season.

Sam Bradford has only the Redskins game to separate him from abject mediocrity. After five games, Bradford only has six touchdowns against five interceptions. He has topped 221 yards only once this year and never had more than 200 in a road game so far. And... he just lost his only best receiver in Amendola.

The Rams still have never scored a touchdown by any running back. Steven Jackson's value has to reply exclusively on his rushing production where he just had a season high of 76 yards. He is averaging just 54 yards per game and that ain't winning anyone's fantasy league. Daryl Richardson is used just enough times to ensure that Jackson remains largely unproductive and yet Richardson has only the Washington matchup (15-83) where he did anything.

This team is living off limiting errors and playing good defense at home. On the road they have not yet won or held an opponent to fewer than 23 points. But losing their best weapon in Amendola is going to be hard to compensate since all the other receivers have already spent the last month showing that they were not up to the task.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 29 29 16 29 9 11
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 11 26 16 23 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Austin Davis, STL SEA 0000024021 **
The Seahawks have allowed multiple TD tosses and at least 250 passing yards in each of their last four games. So while prior to the season using the Rams' third string quarterback against the defending Super Bowl champs would have been enough to get you a date with a mental health professional, this week it actually makes sense. Davis against the Seahaws; who woulda thunk?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Zac Stacy, STL SEA 4003200000 ***
The Cowboys have been the only team to effectively run the ball against Seattle, but the Rams ain't the Cowboys and Stacy ain't DeMarco Murray. Plus, he's now involved in a menage a trois at running back, sharing carries with Benny Cunningham and, appropriately enough, Tre Mason. None of that adds up to good fantasy news for Stacy this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Benny Cunningham, STL SEA 3003200000 ***
The good: Cunningham has two of the Rams' three RB rushing scores this year. The bad: he's facing a Seahawks defense that allowing just 3.4 yards per carry and 78 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. The ugly: Benny has to share the workload with two other Rams backs. The way I figure, there's really not too much future here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tre Mason, STL SEA 300000000 ***
Mason averaged eight yards per carry in his NFL debut and now owns a share of the Rams' backfield workload. However, it's just a share and it's anything but a favorable matchup; his initial fantasy impact will have to wait at least another week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Britt, STL SEA 003501000 **
Britt's been consistently targeted if not consistently productive, and there are opportunities to take advantage of the Seattle secondary. If Brian Quick can't take advantage, Britt would be the next best bet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Quick, STL SEA 004500000 ***
The Seahawks secondary hasn't been infallible, but good luck identifying which Ram might do the damage. Quick seems the logical choice, but that only means there's a very good chance he'll see more of Richard Sherman than the average TV viewer subjected to Sherman's media blitz of commercial saturation. Temper your expectations accordingly, because you get out what you put in.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tavon Austin, STL SEA 004300000 ***
Tough to be the second-best "athletic receiver whose team can't figure out how to get them the ball enough to be effective" in the game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, STL SEA 006601000 ****
Even Achilles had a heel, and for the Seahawks that heel is the tight end. Seattle has allowed seven TE TDs on the season, including two last week, and with 30 targets over the past three games it's clear Cook is on the Rams' passing game radar.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL SEA 2222 ****
Legatron has just one week of double-digit points this season, and a date with the Seahawks doesn't feel like an opportunity to change that number.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 230
RB Lamar Miller 30,1
RB Daniel Thomas
WR Brandon Gibson 4-60,1
WR Brian Hartline 5-60
WR Mike Wallace 5-80,1

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins need a win here to reach .500 for their bye next week and this should be a very "winnable" game against a team with little offense like the Raiders who showed up and were sent packing. Ryan Tannehill had his monster 431 yard effort against the Cardinals but came back down to earth with just 223 yards in Cincinnati. Tannehill has just two passing touchdowns on the season against six interceptions. The Arizona fluke aside, he is just a game manager with around 200 yards every week and only passes to set up Reggie Bush rushing attempts. Literally. He is on a pace to end with six passing touchdowns on the year and he has taken every single quarterback snap for the Fins.

Reggie Bush remains the main weapon here though his road games were light on the yardage and he has not been used as a receiver much at all since week two. Worse yet is how the Dolphins insert Jorvorskie Lane or Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller at the goal line as all have scored and combined for five touchdowns to just three for Bush. Still, Bush is the best bet for any consistent production for the team.

Anthony Fasano has one score but just bounces around between 20 and 50 yards per week with no fantasy relevance. Brian Hartline was scraped off every waiver wire in the world after his 253 yard game in Arizona but then went right back to just 59 yards on four catches last week. Hartline tends to be feast or famine with just two big games this year. Davone Bess has never scored and while he too had a nice showing in Arizona with 123 unusual yards, he was back to only two catches for 49 yards last weekend. The problem too is that not only is Hartline the only receiver with more than one good game, predicting when he pops out of his shell is hard to do.

The Rams on the road should be a bit less formidable and they are below average against the run anyway. That means plenty of Reggie Bush and likely another down game for Tannehill. If Sam Bradford cannot generate much passing with the absence of Danny Amendola, this game could end up with mostly just rushing which favors the Bush owners.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 28 5 25 27 26 14
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 10 19 7 14 9 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA @CHI 20000024011 ***
It's a moderately favorable matchup for Tannehill, as the Bears have allowed at least 250 passing yards in four straight and multiple TD tosses in two of the last three. However, there's a top end to Tannehill as he has yet to top 278 yards on the year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA @CHI 6012100000 ****
Miller stands to benefit from an increased workload with Knowshon Moreno done for the year. It's not a tremendously favorable matchup, but the Bears have given up RB TDs in three straight and Miller handles both the rushing and receiving workload so at minimum he'll be solid with a shot at a score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA @CHI 005601000 ****
The Bears secondary has been better the past two games, but Wallace has played his way into every-week starter status thanks to touchdowns in four of five this year. His stat line may not be gaudy, but he's reliable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @CHI 004500000 ***
Landry is emerging as a playmaker for the Dolphins, and in a more favorable matchup we'd be excited about the prospect of him making plays. However, Da Bears put the clamps on both Carolina and Atlanta and if there's a Miami receiver to be banked on for fantasy points Landry falls behind Mike Wallace in the pecking order.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Hartline, MIA @CHI 002200000 ***
Hartline appears to be fading behind Jarvis Landry among Miami's secondary targets, and this matchup doesn't suggest bucking those odds this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA @CHI 003300000 ***
The only TE TDs the Bears have allowed went to Greg Olsen, who is far more WR than TE. Plus, Clay is nowhere near as involved in the offense as he was last season. Look elsewhere for fantasy help.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA @CHI 2222 ****
Sturgis has been a reasonably reliable producer of points, and the Bears have allowed at least seven points to every kicker they've faced.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

a d v e r t i s e m e n t