Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: STL 16, MIA 20 (Line: MIA by 3.5)

Players Updated: Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas

Players to Watch: Any Rams receiver who even remotely makes you think of Amendola

The 3-2 Rams are breathing the sweet air of a winning record and took down the previously unbeaten Cardinals to get there. Their two previous trips away from St.. Louis were both losses though and the Dolphins come off a win in Cincinnati. No doubt a close game here that will be decided by turnovers and the lack of Danny Amendola.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF -----
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA ----- 15 MIN -----
7 GB ----- 16 @TB -----
8 NE ----- 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Kenny Britt 2-30
TE Jared Cook 3-30,1
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The only bad news that came out of the Thursday win over the Cardinals was that Danny Amendola has a dislocated clavicle and will not return until week 12 at the earliest. Given that the chances that the Rams are going to go deep into the playoffs is minimal, it means that their best receiver will miss over half of the remaining games. The problem too is that left behind is absolutely no one that has the look of a #1 wideout.

Brandon Gibson scored in the first two games but has not produced more than two or three catches per game for more than 33 yards. The rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens have been complete nonfactors so far other than the one touchdown catch by Givens against the Cardinals who obviously did not see him as a viable receiver when he was all alone forty yards downfield. Steve Smith is a flop. Austin Pettis should get more work but overall what does it mean? Probably not much since the opportunities have been there unfulfilled all season.

Lance Kendricks caught his first touchdown of the year against the Cardinals but that was his only catch in the game. The lack of passing offense is going to become more obvious in road games, particularly in the second half of the season.

Sam Bradford has only the Redskins game to separate him from abject mediocrity. After five games, Bradford only has six touchdowns against five interceptions. He has topped 221 yards only once this year and never had more than 200 in a road game so far. And... he just lost his only best receiver in Amendola.

The Rams still have never scored a touchdown by any running back. Steven Jackson's value has to reply exclusively on his rushing production where he just had a season high of 76 yards. He is averaging just 54 yards per game and that ain't winning anyone's fantasy league. Daryl Richardson is used just enough times to ensure that Jackson remains largely unproductive and yet Richardson has only the Washington matchup (15-83) where he did anything.

This team is living off limiting errors and playing good defense at home. On the road they have not yet won or held an opponent to fewer than 23 points. But losing their best weapon in Amendola is going to be hard to compensate since all the other receivers have already spent the last month showing that they were not up to the task.

Gaining Fantasy Points STL 29 29 16 29 9 11
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 11 26 16 23 22

QB Nick Foles, STL @ARI 10000016011 ***
Foles has just two touchdown tosses on the year; then again, the Cards have given up only two TD passes thus far this season. That adds up to a cozy spot on the fantasy bench for Foles this week.
RB Todd Gurley, STL @ARI 3002100000 ***
Expect Gurley's role to expand, but gradually. And against an Arizona defense that's allowed only one RB TD on the year--and no back to top 61 yards--it's far too early for a fantasy start for the rookie.
RB Tre Mason, STL @ARI 3002100000 ***
Mason is job-sharing with first-round pick Todd Gurley, and in a matchup that might barely yield one fantasy helper job-sharing can be translated into "bench fodder".
WR Kenny Britt, STL @ARI 003500000 ***
The Cards haven't allowed a 100-yard receiver yet this season; heck, they haven't even allowed a 65-yard receiver this weekend. Given the struggles of the St. Louis passing game, this is a bad spot to give any Rams wideout a test spin.
WR Tavon Austin, STL @ARI 1002300000 ***
If you're starting Austin, you're banking on a return TD or something unusual like a jet sweep because he's not doing enough in the passing game to warrant fantasy attention.
TE Jared Cook, STL @ARI 004500000 ***
The Cards haven't allowed much of anything to tight ends, and with Cook and Lance Kendricks splitting the Rams looks there's little fantasy value here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL @ARI 2211 ***
There's some bend-don't-break to the Cardinals D, as only one team has surrendered more field goals--but only one has given up fewer PATs. Guess that makes us cautiously optimistic about Legatron's chances this week.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 230
RB Lamar Miller 30,1
WR Greg Jennings
TE Jordan Cameron 3-40

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins need a win here to reach .500 for their bye next week and this should be a very "winnable" game against a team with little offense like the Raiders who showed up and were sent packing. Ryan Tannehill had his monster 431 yard effort against the Cardinals but came back down to earth with just 223 yards in Cincinnati. Tannehill has just two passing touchdowns on the season against six interceptions. The Arizona fluke aside, he is just a game manager with around 200 yards every week and only passes to set up Reggie Bush rushing attempts. Literally. He is on a pace to end with six passing touchdowns on the year and he has taken every single quarterback snap for the Fins.

Reggie Bush remains the main weapon here though his road games were light on the yardage and he has not been used as a receiver much at all since week two. Worse yet is how the Dolphins insert Jorvorskie Lane or Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller at the goal line as all have scored and combined for five touchdowns to just three for Bush. Still, Bush is the best bet for any consistent production for the team.

Anthony Fasano has one score but just bounces around between 20 and 50 yards per week with no fantasy relevance. Brian Hartline was scraped off every waiver wire in the world after his 253 yard game in Arizona but then went right back to just 59 yards on four catches last week. Hartline tends to be feast or famine with just two big games this year. Davone Bess has never scored and while he too had a nice showing in Arizona with 123 unusual yards, he was back to only two catches for 49 yards last weekend. The problem too is that not only is Hartline the only receiver with more than one good game, predicting when he pops out of his shell is hard to do.

The Rams on the road should be a bit less formidable and they are below average against the run anyway. That means plenty of Reggie Bush and likely another down game for Tannehill. If Sam Bradford cannot generate much passing with the absence of Danny Amendola, this game could end up with mostly just rushing which favors the Bush owners.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 28 5 25 27 26 14
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 10 19 7 14 9 23

QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA NYJ 10000024012 ***
Tannehill has one fantasy game of note in six tries against the Jets. While he's averaged 328 and 2 the past couple of games, those numbers will be extremely difficult to reach against a Jets' D that's held every QB they've faced to one passing TD and 250 yards or less.
RB Lamar Miller, MIA NYJ 5003200000 ***
Miller's been ordinary, he's been hurt, and now he's apparently been relegated to committee duty with ex-Patriot Jonas Gray. None of that adds up to fantasy success.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NYJ 008800000 ***
Landry should see plenty of targets out of the slot, and he's always a threat in the return game as well. There's an overall damper on expectations for Miami's passing game against the Revis-led Jets D, but not so much that Landry still doesn't warrant a fantasy start.
WR Rishard Matthews, MIA NYJ 004300000 ***
The Dolphins' surprise hit receiver likely draws Darrelle Revis, who tweaked his hammy at the end of the Jets' loss to Philly but says he'll be ready by game time. So hopefully you didn't blow your FAAB on Matthews only to get put on the island this week.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA NYJ 002200000 ***
Signs of life from Parker, though he's still third wheel in this offense and it'll be tough enough getting one spinning against the Jets this week.
TE Jordan Cameron, MIA NYJ 005501000 ***
Cameron was heavily targeted again last week, but far less productive than he'd been the previous two games. A Jets defense that has held opposing tight ends in check keeps him on the fringe of the fantasy radar this week.

Update: Pushing Cameron even further out of the fantasy picture is his questionable status on the official injury report.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA NYJ 3311 ***
Franks for nuthin'. Miami ranks near the bottom of the league in kicker points, the Jets rank last in kicker points allowed, and Vegas has the O/U set at 41.5. None of that suggests fantasy help.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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