Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: STL 16, MIA 20 (Line: MIA by 3.5)

Players Updated: Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas

Players to Watch: Any Rams receiver who even remotely makes you think of Amendola

The 3-2 Rams are breathing the sweet air of a winning record and took down the previously unbeaten Cardinals to get there. Their two previous trips away from St.. Louis were both losses though and the Dolphins come off a win in Cincinnati. No doubt a close game here that will be decided by turnovers and the lack of Danny Amendola.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF -----
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA ----- 15 MIN -----
7 GB ----- 16 @TB -----
8 NE ----- 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Kenny Britt 2-30
WR Wes Welker 7-80,1
TE Jared Cook 3-30,1
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The only bad news that came out of the Thursday win over the Cardinals was that Danny Amendola has a dislocated clavicle and will not return until week 12 at the earliest. Given that the chances that the Rams are going to go deep into the playoffs is minimal, it means that their best receiver will miss over half of the remaining games. The problem too is that left behind is absolutely no one that has the look of a #1 wideout.

Brandon Gibson scored in the first two games but has not produced more than two or three catches per game for more than 33 yards. The rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens have been complete nonfactors so far other than the one touchdown catch by Givens against the Cardinals who obviously did not see him as a viable receiver when he was all alone forty yards downfield. Steve Smith is a flop. Austin Pettis should get more work but overall what does it mean? Probably not much since the opportunities have been there unfulfilled all season.

Lance Kendricks caught his first touchdown of the year against the Cardinals but that was his only catch in the game. The lack of passing offense is going to become more obvious in road games, particularly in the second half of the season.

Sam Bradford has only the Redskins game to separate him from abject mediocrity. After five games, Bradford only has six touchdowns against five interceptions. He has topped 221 yards only once this year and never had more than 200 in a road game so far. And... he just lost his only best receiver in Amendola.

The Rams still have never scored a touchdown by any running back. Steven Jackson's value has to reply exclusively on his rushing production where he just had a season high of 76 yards. He is averaging just 54 yards per game and that ain't winning anyone's fantasy league. Daryl Richardson is used just enough times to ensure that Jackson remains largely unproductive and yet Richardson has only the Washington matchup (15-83) where he did anything.

This team is living off limiting errors and playing good defense at home. On the road they have not yet won or held an opponent to fewer than 23 points. But losing their best weapon in Amendola is going to be hard to compensate since all the other receivers have already spent the last month showing that they were not up to the task.

Gaining Fantasy Points STL 29 29 16 29 9 11
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 11 26 16 23 22

QB Case Keenum, STL @CIN 0000015002 *
STL QB has been a fantasy wasteland for six weeks, with the Keenum/Nick Foles tandem producing a total of three TDs in that span while topping out at 200 passing yards. No reason to think they'll kick start the passing game against a stout Cincy D that bounces back from giving up four TDs to Carson Palmer last week.
QB Nick Foles, STL @CIN 00000000 *
If Case Keenum hasn't cleared concussion protocol we'll be treated to the quarterback stylings of Foles once again. There's no fantasy value to be had here, especially with a tough matchup against the Bengals.
RB Todd Gurley, STL @CIN 8013200000 ***
It's far from an easy matchup, but Gurley has scored in five straight and is a must play regardless of opponent. What other offense do the Rams have?
WR Tavon Austin, STL @CIN 3004200000 ***
The only member of the Rams' passing game that warrants fantasy attention, in no small part because he'll carry the ball a few times a game and is a threat as a return man as well.
WR Kenny Britt, STL @CIN 002200000 ***
You can count the number of 60-yard games by Rams receivers this year on one hand. Britt owns two of them; he also has 30 yards in the past two games combined. The upside isn't work the risk.
TE Jared Cook, STL @CIN 002300000 ***
The Bengals have allowed one TE to score this year; Cook is an unlikely candidate to be the second, and the yardage isn't there for him to be a fantasy factor otherwise.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL @CIN 1111 ***
Bad offense versus good defense means not much in the way of opportunity for Legatron this week.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL ----- 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ ----- 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 230
RB Lamar Miller 30,1
WR Greg Jennings
TE Jordan Cameron 3-40

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins need a win here to reach .500 for their bye next week and this should be a very "winnable" game against a team with little offense like the Raiders who showed up and were sent packing. Ryan Tannehill had his monster 431 yard effort against the Cardinals but came back down to earth with just 223 yards in Cincinnati. Tannehill has just two passing touchdowns on the season against six interceptions. The Arizona fluke aside, he is just a game manager with around 200 yards every week and only passes to set up Reggie Bush rushing attempts. Literally. He is on a pace to end with six passing touchdowns on the year and he has taken every single quarterback snap for the Fins.

Reggie Bush remains the main weapon here though his road games were light on the yardage and he has not been used as a receiver much at all since week two. Worse yet is how the Dolphins insert Jorvorskie Lane or Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller at the goal line as all have scored and combined for five touchdowns to just three for Bush. Still, Bush is the best bet for any consistent production for the team.

Anthony Fasano has one score but just bounces around between 20 and 50 yards per week with no fantasy relevance. Brian Hartline was scraped off every waiver wire in the world after his 253 yard game in Arizona but then went right back to just 59 yards on four catches last week. Hartline tends to be feast or famine with just two big games this year. Davone Bess has never scored and while he too had a nice showing in Arizona with 123 unusual yards, he was back to only two catches for 49 yards last weekend. The problem too is that not only is Hartline the only receiver with more than one good game, predicting when he pops out of his shell is hard to do.

The Rams on the road should be a bit less formidable and they are below average against the run anyway. That means plenty of Reggie Bush and likely another down game for Tannehill. If Sam Bradford cannot generate much passing with the absence of Danny Amendola, this game could end up with mostly just rushing which favors the Bush owners.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 28 5 25 27 26 14
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 10 19 7 14 9 23

QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA @NYJ 20000024011 ***
After a blip that saw them gutted by three straight quarterbacks the Jets have regained their form in giving up 387 yards and three TDs over the past two games. That's right in the wheelhouse of what they gave up to Tannehill in the earlier meeting this year, 198 and 2. And it's right around what Tannehill has done the past couple weeks. In either case, it's not really enough to warrant serious fantasy attention, and there isn't much upside here either.
RB Lamar Miller, MIA @NYJ 4006500000 ***
Miller only saw eight touches in the previous meeting, a season low he hadn't approached until... well, last week when he only saw nine touches against the Cowboys. Miller's biggest contributions of late have come as a receiver, which is good for his fantasy status as the Jets have given up only one RB rushing score all season. There's PPR upside to Miller, but otherwise he's only a borderline fantasy play this week.
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA @NYJ 2003100000 **
Ajayi is getting a handful of touches in relief of Miller. In more favorable matchups there might be fantasy value here, but this is not one of those matchups.
WR Kenny Stills, MIA @NYJ 003401000 ***
Stills scored in the earlier matchup with the Jets, as secondary targets are wont to do against Gang Green. And he scored last week as well. He's wildly inconsistent but both recency and history at least put him on the fantasy radar this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @NYJ 2005600000 ***
Landry has lifted his floor to 60-plus yards over the past month-plus, and there's always the possibility of a jet sweep or return TD to boost his upside. His 4-40 on a dozen targets in the earlier meeting with the Jets also puts a damper on his fantasy value this week.
WR Rishard Matthews, MIA @NYJ 004400000 **
Matthews hasn't scored in a month and is losing ground to Kenny Stills in the wingman sweepstakes. If the previous matchup with New York is any indication Matthews is a third wheel in a two-receiver matchup.
WR Greg Jennings, MIA @NYJ 002200000 ***
Jennings is on the bottom of Miami's receiver rotation; tough to see him carving out fantasy value this week given his usual allotment of limited targets.
TE Jordan Cameron, MIA @NYJ 002200000 ***
Jake Stoneburner vultured a TD from Cameron the last time Miami faced the Jets; since then Gang Green has allowed only one TE TD (to Gronk). Cameron has staked a firmer claim to the Dolphins' TE targets and he scored last week, but he's still too lightly targeted to be banked on for fantasy help--especially in a tough matchup like this.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA @NYJ 2211 ***
There will be no Franksgiving celebration this week as Franks has multiple field goals in just one of his last eight games and tallied a paltry two the last time he tangled with Gang Green.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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