FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: GB 34, STL 16 (Line: GB by 5.5)

Players Updated: Aaron Rodgers, Alex Green, James Starks, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, James Jones

Players to Watch: Chris Givens, Austin Pettis

The 3-3 Packers finally put together a game reminiscent of 2011 and took down the previously unbeaten Texans in Houston. The 3-3 Rams haven't scored over 20 points in their last four games but survive with a great defense each week and a smidgen of offense. Sort of like the Texans only without Arian Foster. Ben Tate. Andre Johnson. Or that offensive line.

The Rams lost 3-24 in Green Bay last year.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL ----- 16 TEN -----
8 JAC ----- 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20,1 280,3
RB John Kuhn 10,1
RB James Starks 20
WR Randall Cobb 3-40
WR Jordy Nelson 5-70,1
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: So much for all the hand-wringing about the poor Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The same team that lost in Indianapolis the previous week somehow found second, third and fourth gear in Houston in a game that was nowhere near as close as the score suggests.

Rodgers passed for only three touchdowns over the first three weeks and now has 13 scores in the last three games. He set a career mark with six touchdown passes and 338 yards in a game where suddenly everything worked. Everyone held onto the ball. The line all blocked. The offense was sharp and unstoppable despite facing one of the best units in the NFL. The only reasonable explanation is that Cedric Benson brought in a curse of mediocrity with him but was finally injured and out of the game. There is no other reasonable explanation.

Alex Green replaced Bad News Benson and while he only gained 65 yards on 22 runs, he was playing a top rushing defense and still had several impressive runs. That won't matter much against a tough defense but should show up next week when the Jaguars visit Green Bay.

Jermichael Finley is really just a blocker now. He was only throw four passes in Houston and caught only two for 12 yards and that is not even his worst game of the year. He has lost the confidence of Rodgers mostly because he has swatted away as many passes as he caught. He's become a fantasy pariah at least for the near future.

Greg Jennings remains out but who cares really? James Jones has cranked out three straight games with two touchdowns in each even though he rarely has more than about 50 yards or four or five catches. Randall Cobb has really stepped up in the last two weeks with 82 and 102 yards and he scored in Indy. Jordy Nelson was the home field guy last year. Like Julio Jones, Nelson did almost all his damage when at home and little in road games where Greg Jennings typically ruled. Nelson comes off a career best three touchdowns on his nine catches for 112 yards in Houston. The curse of the road has been lifted. Still a concern that his two previous road trips only produced 2-29 (IND) and 2-19 (SEA). So it was a tremendous leap forward made by Nelson that hopefully won't end up as a one week deal.

Matching this up to the defense is a bit tougher since the Rams have never faced much of a passing attack having only gone against DET (with 355 yards), SEA, CHI, SEA, ARI and MIA. If these Packers have turned the corner for real, then the Rams are about to learn what a real offense can do.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 3 28 1 13 30 16
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 7 17 4 14 7 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @TB 0000028020 ***
Maybe Rodgers relaxed a little too much last week, as he was blanked by the Bills in Buffalo. It's another road date, and we have more than enough evidence at this point to see that Rodgers is far less effective away from Lambeau. Moreover, the Bucs have been solid since their Week 7 bye, especially at home where they've allowed an average game of 212 passing yards and one passing score. If you survived Rodgers' goose-egg last week your team should be stocked enough to absorb a better--but still not elite--outing here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB @TB 8012200000 ***
So much for a bum hip and sharing touches; Lacy looked perfectly fine last week and should be good to go against a Bucs D that over the past five games has given up an average of 140 combo yards and a touchdown to opposing backs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @TB 0061001000 ***
Nelson's last road TD came in Week 6, giving him a three-game scoring drought on the road heading into Tampa. Tough to bench an elite receiver, but the numbers suggest Jordy's just another guy away from Lambeau... and Tampa's a long ways from America's Dairyland.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB @TB 007901000 ****
Cobb's productivity has held up better on the road than his receiving corps mates; witness his 96 yards last week in the loss to Buffalo. While it's been bigger receivers having the most success against the Bucs they've surrendered stats to some speed guys as well, and Cobb should carve out another fantasy helper in Tampa Bay this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @TB 002300000 ***
The Packers still haven't received anything resembling a fantasy helper from a third receiver on the road, and there's nothing in the Bucs' pattern of stats surrendered to wideouts to suggest that changes this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Andrew Quarless, GB @TB 002200000 ***
The Packers continue to split TE snaps, cutting into any chance at fantasy stats either Quarless or Richard Rodgers might have.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @TB 2233 ***
Mason has multiple field goals in three straight and six of seven, with double-digit points in five of those seven outings. He should get his kicks again against a Bucs defense that, after a brief and unexpected three-game bout of competency, is back to giving up double-digit points to opposing kickers.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF -----
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA 14-17 15 MIN -----
7 GB ----- 16 @TB -----
8 NE ----- 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
STL vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 10 240,1
WR Kenny Britt 4-70,1
WR Chris Givens 4-70,1
TE Jared Cook 4-50
TE Lance Kendricks 3-30
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Rams are 3-0 in home games and taken down Skins, Seahawks and Cardinals. But the offense has not produced a decent score in a month and losing Danny Amendola was not going to help out. The next three games are GB, NE and then at SF after the bye. This is no time to struggle to find the endzone. And there is no cavalry that is going to show up when the going gets rough. Still, the defense under HC Jeff Fisher has made the Rams into a weekly contender and that alone is a major success for the team. Even if it has been death for fantasy relevance.

Sam Bradford has only thrown a touchdown in one of the last four games and produced marginal yardage against all but the weakest defenses. Losing Danny Amendola did not show up so much against the Dolphins since he passes for a season best 315 yards but he had no scores in Miami. In the next two games against the Packers and Patriots, Bradford is going to have to make it all work if they hope to keep up on the scoreboard.

Hard to believe but this offense has not seen any running back score this year. Not one. Steven Jackson does receive up to 21 carries per game but still has not gained more than 76 yards. He is averaging only 54 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. He is very consistently mediocre every week. Daryl Richardson drains away six to 12 runs per week for no apparent reason. This is one of the worst ground attacks in the NFL and so far no threat to score.

Austin Pettis replaced Amendola but only caught one pass for 11 yards in Miami. Chris Givens has been the one with the biggest increase since he went from one catch per week to three. But he tends to only catch deep strikes and has scored once this year. Brandon Gibson comes off a season best 91 yards but has not scored since week two or gained more than 33 yards until least week. Lance Kendricks is another nonfactor in this bad passing scheme.

The Rams have been stripped of fantasy relevance. Steven Jackson is a shell of his former self and the offense currently is little more than trying to throw a bomb to Chris Givens. The Packers were on fire last week and may have an emotional cooling off. But if they don't, then the Rams are going to be reminded just how nice an actual offense can be.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 25 29 19 27 10 19
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 20 16 20 24 14 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Shaun Hill, STL NYG 0000022010 ***
If not for his rushing score in a 52-0 blowout of the Raiders, Hill wouldn't have a single fantasy helper to his credit. Only one of the last six quarterbacks to face the Giants has thrown double-digit touchdown passes; unlikely Hill winds up the second.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tre Mason, STL NYG 10012100000 ****
Mason continues to get the bulk of the workload, so when there's a favorable matchup--like against the Giants, who have allowed four 100-yard rushers--he's the primary beneficiary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Stedman Bailey, STL NYG 004601000 **
If Shaun Hill puts up enough yardage to generate a fantasy-worthy receiver--and that's a reasonably big "if"--Bailey is the most likely candidate; he's been the Rams' top receiver three of the past four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Britt, STL NYG 005700000 ***
Britt remains in the mix, but he's wildly inconsistent and dependent on a quarterback who doesn't exactly churn out tons of helpful fantasy stats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tavon Austin, STL NYG 3002100000 ***
The Rams are becoming more creative in getting the ball to their top pick from a year ago, but he's largely a non-factor as a receiver so you're banking on returns and gimmick plays for him to get you fantasy points--always a risky proposition.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, STL NYG 002200000 ***
Cook will be the most targeted tight end in a reasonably favorable matchup, but he still has to fend off Lance Kendricks and Cory Harkey--as well as hope Shaun Hill throws enough for them to be fantasy relevant.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL NYG 2222 ***
Aside from his five-field goal outing against the Broncos Zuerlein has been mostly ordinary with no more than two field goals in any other contest since Week 2. It's not an overly favorable matchup, so no need to go out of your way to get Legatron into your lineup.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

a d v e r t i s e m e n t