FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: GB 34, STL 16 (Line: GB by 5.5)

Players Updated: Aaron Rodgers, Alex Green, James Starks, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, James Jones

Players to Watch: Chris Givens, Austin Pettis

The 3-3 Packers finally put together a game reminiscent of 2011 and took down the previously unbeaten Texans in Houston. The 3-3 Rams haven't scored over 20 points in their last four games but survive with a great defense each week and a smidgen of offense. Sort of like the Texans only without Arian Foster. Ben Tate. Andre Johnson. Or that offensive line.

The Rams lost 3-24 in Green Bay last year.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL ----- 16 TEN -----
8 JAC ----- 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20,1 280,3
RB John Kuhn 10,1
RB James Starks 20
WR Randall Cobb 3-40
WR Jordy Nelson 5-70,1
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: So much for all the hand-wringing about the poor Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The same team that lost in Indianapolis the previous week somehow found second, third and fourth gear in Houston in a game that was nowhere near as close as the score suggests.

Rodgers passed for only three touchdowns over the first three weeks and now has 13 scores in the last three games. He set a career mark with six touchdown passes and 338 yards in a game where suddenly everything worked. Everyone held onto the ball. The line all blocked. The offense was sharp and unstoppable despite facing one of the best units in the NFL. The only reasonable explanation is that Cedric Benson brought in a curse of mediocrity with him but was finally injured and out of the game. There is no other reasonable explanation.

Alex Green replaced Bad News Benson and while he only gained 65 yards on 22 runs, he was playing a top rushing defense and still had several impressive runs. That won't matter much against a tough defense but should show up next week when the Jaguars visit Green Bay.

Jermichael Finley is really just a blocker now. He was only throw four passes in Houston and caught only two for 12 yards and that is not even his worst game of the year. He has lost the confidence of Rodgers mostly because he has swatted away as many passes as he caught. He's become a fantasy pariah at least for the near future.

Greg Jennings remains out but who cares really? James Jones has cranked out three straight games with two touchdowns in each even though he rarely has more than about 50 yards or four or five catches. Randall Cobb has really stepped up in the last two weeks with 82 and 102 yards and he scored in Indy. Jordy Nelson was the home field guy last year. Like Julio Jones, Nelson did almost all his damage when at home and little in road games where Greg Jennings typically ruled. Nelson comes off a career best three touchdowns on his nine catches for 112 yards in Houston. The curse of the road has been lifted. Still a concern that his two previous road trips only produced 2-29 (IND) and 2-19 (SEA). So it was a tremendous leap forward made by Nelson that hopefully won't end up as a one week deal.

Matching this up to the defense is a bit tougher since the Rams have never faced much of a passing attack having only gone against DET (with 355 yards), SEA, CHI, SEA, ARI and MIA. If these Packers have turned the corner for real, then the Rams are about to learn what a real offense can do.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 3 28 1 13 30 16
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 7 17 4 14 7 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @DET 0000026020 ***
Before you pencil Rodgers in for something gaudy, note that in the two meetings since Matt Flynn embarrassed the Lions for 480 and 6 Green Bay QBs have totaled 413 and 1. Rodgers hasn't throw for multiple TDs against Detroit since November 2012 or topped 275 yards against them since November 2011. The Lions haven't allowed a multiple TD tosser this year, though Rodgers is a step up from Eli and Cam. Still, check expectations at the door.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB @DET 4013200000 ***
The good news is similarly-sized backs Rashad Jennings and Jonathan Stewart have both scored against the Lions this year. The bad: Detroit's D is allowing a shade over two yards per carry. Lacy himself is barely above three and was held to 16 yards on 10 carries his last trip to Motown. Still playable in TD-heavy systems, but yardage leagues may want to shop around.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @DET 008901000 ***
30 targets, 18 catches... so what if Jordy hasn't done a think against Detroit since tallying a hat trick in Matt Flynn's record-setter at the end of the 2011 season? Detroit has allowed only one WR TD and one WR to top 50 yards, but given the quarterbacking (and to some degree the receivers) they've faced those numbers are misleading. Nelson's an every-week starter, even if you need to dial back expectations just a hair this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB @DET 005601000 ***
Cobb may be playing second fiddle to Jordy Nelson, but at least one TD in each game is sweet music to fantasy owners. Cobb rushed for 72 yards the last time he faced Detroit, so perhaps he can augment his fantasy value with a little legwork as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @DET 002400000 ***
Welcome to the party, rookie! Unfortunately, all signs point towards reduced production from the Packers passing game this week and that reduction starts at the bottom, where Adams and Jarrett Boykin are battling for looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarrett Boykin, GB @DET 001200000 ***
Being blanked by Richard Sherman is one thing; being usurped by a rookie in the Packers' passing game pecking order is something else entirely.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Andrew Quarless, GB @DET 002200000 ***
The Lions have had their difficulties defending the tight end this year; too bad the Packers don't have a reliable one for fantasy purposes.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @DET 1133 ***
You'd think Crosby would appreciate going indoors after kicking at Lambeau, but he hasn't mustered multiple field goals in Motown since 2011. The Packers have averaged 16 points per game their last four visits to Detroit, which doesn't help Crosby's prospects.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF -----
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA 14-17 15 MIN -----
7 GB ----- 16 @TB -----
8 NE ----- 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
STL vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 10 240,1
WR Kenny Britt 4-70,1
WR Chris Givens 4-70,1
WR Austin Pettis 3-40
TE Jared Cook 4-50
TE Lance Kendricks 3-30
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Rams are 3-0 in home games and taken down Skins, Seahawks and Cardinals. But the offense has not produced a decent score in a month and losing Danny Amendola was not going to help out. The next three games are GB, NE and then at SF after the bye. This is no time to struggle to find the endzone. And there is no cavalry that is going to show up when the going gets rough. Still, the defense under HC Jeff Fisher has made the Rams into a weekly contender and that alone is a major success for the team. Even if it has been death for fantasy relevance.

Sam Bradford has only thrown a touchdown in one of the last four games and produced marginal yardage against all but the weakest defenses. Losing Danny Amendola did not show up so much against the Dolphins since he passes for a season best 315 yards but he had no scores in Miami. In the next two games against the Packers and Patriots, Bradford is going to have to make it all work if they hope to keep up on the scoreboard.

Hard to believe but this offense has not seen any running back score this year. Not one. Steven Jackson does receive up to 21 carries per game but still has not gained more than 76 yards. He is averaging only 54 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. He is very consistently mediocre every week. Daryl Richardson drains away six to 12 runs per week for no apparent reason. This is one of the worst ground attacks in the NFL and so far no threat to score.

Austin Pettis replaced Amendola but only caught one pass for 11 yards in Miami. Chris Givens has been the one with the biggest increase since he went from one catch per week to three. But he tends to only catch deep strikes and has scored once this year. Brandon Gibson comes off a season best 91 yards but has not scored since week two or gained more than 33 yards until least week. Lance Kendricks is another nonfactor in this bad passing scheme.

The Rams have been stripped of fantasy relevance. Steven Jackson is a shell of his former self and the offense currently is little more than trying to throw a bomb to Chris Givens. The Packers were on fire last week and may have an emotional cooling off. But if they don't, then the Rams are going to be reminded just how nice an actual offense can be.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 25 29 19 27 10 19
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 20 16 20 24 14 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Austin Davis, STL DAL 0000021011 ***
The Rams are still looking for their first TD pass of the season. Until they get one, look elsewhere for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Zac Stacy, STL DAL 6011100000 ***
The Cowboys are giving up almost five yards a carry, and the Rams have no passing game. You do the math.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Quick, STL DAL 007800000 ***
The Cowboys, shockingly enough, have yet to surrender a WR TD this year. The Rams, to the surprise of no one, have yet to score one. Quick is the most likely to snap that streak, but it's hardly a given.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Britt, STL DAL 001300000 ***
At his current pace, Britt should get two catches this week. You can afford to wait and see if he continues this torrid climb towards fantasy respectability.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, STL DAL 005601000 ****
Cooks is a consistent provider of adequate fantasy numbers, but he could most definitely see an uptick against a defense that's already ceded three TE TDs and 186 yards to the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL DAL 1122 ***
Legatron has six treys in two games, but he's kicking an uphill battle against a Cowboys defense that's allowed just one FG through the first two games.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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