FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: JAC 17, OAK 27 (Line: OAK by 4)

Players Updated: Sebastian Janikowski

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon, Darren McFadden

This is a game that you have to like because one of these teams are going to win. The 1-4 Raiders are 0-2 at home and the 1-4 Jaguars are 1-1 on the road. This could go in any number of ways but almost certainly is not going to contain a lot of points.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30,1

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars come off their bye and with any luck maybe they discovered an offense. Bought one off of EBay or maybe just stopped hoping for anything more than one touchdown from Maurice Jones-Drew and spent all their time making a better special teams so hopefully they can score a touchdown. Because there has not been more than one since the season opener. The last game played hosting the Bears only to lose 3-41 means that the Jaguars are not throwing in the towel, it means they can't throw anything.

Blaine Gabbert is no different than the #32 quarterback we knew in 2011 except this time he has high-priced receivers that he cannot connect with instead of no-name slugs. Gabbert has taken the best wide receiver that came out of the NFL draft and so far Justin Blackmon only caught 13 passes for 119 yards over five games. Gabbert has not passed for more than 186 yards in the last four matchups and averaged a whopping 134 passing yards. He has thrown five touchdowns, somehow, but has no yardage doing it.

Laurent Robinson is still impacted by his concussions and is not expected to practice this week or play. WIth three concussions over the last three months, Robinson might be out for a while and seriously, who cares? He went from being a star in Dallas to catching only nine passes for 134 yards this year. Cecil Shorts will replace him and is the current scoring leader for the Jaguars because he has two touchdowns this year. Yes, that includes Maurice Jones-Drew. Marcedes Lewis remains below 34 yards in each game since week one.

Jones-Drew was the only part of the offense that worked last year and ended up leading the NFL in rushing yardage because the Jaguars fed him a steady diet of everything. But this year he only produced one game over 77 rushing yards and just one touchdown. His role as a receiver is inconsistent at best because the Jags sometimes hold him in to help block so that Gabbert can throw more incompletions. Jones-Drew has been limited to 13 or fewer carries in three of the last four games. It is just not happening in Jacksonville and there is nothing that Jones-Drew can do about it.

This will be interesting since the Jaguars have not faced a defense as weak as the Raiders but then again - on the road. And while the Raiders rank poorly against most positions, that is influenced by games against PIT, DEN and ATL. The Jags have been on their bye and preparing for this game for two weeks. But - that still doesn't magically give them a passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 22 32 28 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 26 25 23 25 29 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @IND 10100018011 **
Bortles takes on fantasy's second-easiest matchup to exploit, so there is at least a little hope. In 2016, he averaged nearly 25 points per game in two meetings. You could do worst in trying to replace Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson or Matthew Stafford for one week, but starting Bortles is a risk-reward decision.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC @IND 6004201000 *
Ivory has quietly become a PPR asset and faces an Indy defense rated as the sixth-worst at stopping backs in this scoring system. Only seven teams have yielded more aerial yards to running backs per game, and two teams have given up TDs with greater ease.

Update: Ivory is in line for more touches with Leonard Fournette listed as a DNP for three straight days and being questionable for Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC @IND 5001100000 *
Fantasy's most consistent scorer has an ideal matchup with divisional-rival Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed four rushing TDs in the last five games, translating to one every 28.5 carries. This is the fifth-highest frequency. The number improves to a score every 23.3 touches when the two receiving scores are factored, and backs have managed 154.2 offensive yards.

Update: Fournette is questionable, and all signs point to him being a game-time call after not practicing all week. He may lose some touches to Chris Ivory if he dresses.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @IND 003400000 ***
In one game versus the Colts last season, Hurns caught two balls for 47 yards and a touchdown. This defense has given up catches (12th most) and yards (4th) but only the sixth-lowest touchdown frequency to wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @IND 004400000 ***
Indy hasn't cared too much about slowing wide receivers from catching passes or even racking up some yardage, but the Colts have clamped down around the stripe. This defense has given up only three TDs over the past 61 receptions, which is the sixth-toughest ratio. Lee was rather quiet in two games against the Colts last season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC @IND 3333 ***
Lambo is a fringe consideration but should be left on the wire with just two teams on the bye.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 80 1-10
WR Michael Crabtree 3-40
TE Jared Cook 4-50
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A week off on their bye and the Raiders returned to almost take down the unbeaten Falcons in their stadium. It was easily the best defensive effort of the year and one of the best offensive showings of the year. And sure, it was sort of a trap game that the Falcons clearly were trying to mail in and still got away with it. The Raiders have a a very nice schedule from here on out and even the tougher games no longer look as intimidating. A win this week could start off a decent run of good games.

Carson Palmer reversed a two game slide in yardage with 353 yards in Atlanta but he still only passed for one score. Aside from the Steeler trap game, Palmer has posted decent yardage but only scores once against opponents. He too should enjoy the upcoming stretch of easier games.

Darren McFadden has been a huge disappointment to fantasy owners but he came to life in Atlanta with a touchdown on his 27 carries for 70 yards and added three catches for 28 more yards - his best receiver role since the season opener when he caught 13 passes.No should enjoy a few easier games than McFadden who appears to be getting at least partially on track after opening the year with mostly bad games.

Brandon Meyers is the most consistently productive receiver for the Raiders by far. While he has not yet scored, Meyers remains above 55 yards in all but one game with around five catches per week. That's far better reliability than any other receiver.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is back from his concussion but did not catch either of his passes in Atlanta and has failed to pick up the new offense and make any difference this year. Denarius Moore has been the only fantasy relevant wideout and marginally so with only one game above 71 yards. But Moore is getting better and receiving eight to ten targets per week as the leader on the team. He comes off a 104 yard, five catch effort last week with a score. Derek Hagen pitches in as does Rod Streater but this passing attack has been pedestrian. Even with the nice yardage in several games, it has never translated into big games for an individual player.

This is the week that McFadden should shine. The Jaguars show up with one of the weakest defenses against running backs that has already allowed eight touchdowns to the position and consider the Colts and Bengals skewed the numbers lower than they should be. This is the same defense that gave up 219 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Texans.

The Jaguars also allowed two scores to each of the last three opposing quarterbacks. This could be a decent passing effort as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 18 9 25 16 18 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 30 18 7 26 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK KC 0000022011 ***
Quarterbacks have averaged 206.6 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs, producing the 10th-most fantasy points (4th-highest without rushing TDs). Carr produced a mere 22.3 combined fantasy points in two outings vs. the Chiefs last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK KC 600000000 ***
This is not likely to be the week in which Lynch gets on track. The Chiefs have given up the seventh-fewest points in non-PPR, and just one in the last 55.5 carries has found the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK KC 2002200000 ***
Richard does most of his work via the passing game, and KC does a fine job of crushing receiving backs. This is the fourth-worst opponent in PPR scoring, generated by giving up the second-fewest receptions and yards per game to the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK KC 006501000 ***
KC ate Crabtree's lunch in 2016, holding him to 6-31-0 over two games. This time around, the Chiefs come in giving up the fourth-most points in PPR and second-most in standard on a per-game rate. Wideouts have caught 54 passes, and 10 of which have gone for a TD. No team is that bad at stopping scores by the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK KC 004300000 ***
Cooper has been awfully, well, awful this year. Last week, he showed a hint of light at the end of the tunnel (black hole?) and caught five of his six targets, but for only 28 yards. He was good in one game last year, going over 100, and non-existent in the second meeting with KC last year. The Chiefs have been embarrassed by wideouts in the last five games, surrendering a league-worst 10 TD catches on just 54 balls.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK KC 002300000 ***
Roberts was ineffective vs. the Chiefs in 2016. This year, he hasn't fared well against any squad and belongs on the waiver wire.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK KC 003300000 ***
Not a great matchup ... of the 18 receptions allowed, none have scored, but the position is at least averaging 71.6 yards against the Chiefs, which is the sixth most in football.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Giorgio Tavecchio, OAK KC 1133 ***
Two teams have granted fewer fantasy points, on average, than the Chiefs. Kickers have gone for a measly 5.4 points per outing.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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