FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: JAC 17, OAK 27 (Line: OAK by 4)

Players Updated: Sebastian Janikowski

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon, Darren McFadden

This is a game that you have to like because one of these teams are going to win. The 1-4 Raiders are 0-2 at home and the 1-4 Jaguars are 1-1 on the road. This could go in any number of ways but almost certainly is not going to contain a lot of points.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Toby Gerhart 20
WR Cecil Shorts 4-50
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30,1
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars come off their bye and with any luck maybe they discovered an offense. Bought one off of EBay or maybe just stopped hoping for anything more than one touchdown from Maurice Jones-Drew and spent all their time making a better special teams so hopefully they can score a touchdown. Because there has not been more than one since the season opener. The last game played hosting the Bears only to lose 3-41 means that the Jaguars are not throwing in the towel, it means they can't throw anything.

Blaine Gabbert is no different than the #32 quarterback we knew in 2011 except this time he has high-priced receivers that he cannot connect with instead of no-name slugs. Gabbert has taken the best wide receiver that came out of the NFL draft and so far Justin Blackmon only caught 13 passes for 119 yards over five games. Gabbert has not passed for more than 186 yards in the last four matchups and averaged a whopping 134 passing yards. He has thrown five touchdowns, somehow, but has no yardage doing it.

Laurent Robinson is still impacted by his concussions and is not expected to practice this week or play. WIth three concussions over the last three months, Robinson might be out for a while and seriously, who cares? He went from being a star in Dallas to catching only nine passes for 134 yards this year. Cecil Shorts will replace him and is the current scoring leader for the Jaguars because he has two touchdowns this year. Yes, that includes Maurice Jones-Drew. Marcedes Lewis remains below 34 yards in each game since week one.

Jones-Drew was the only part of the offense that worked last year and ended up leading the NFL in rushing yardage because the Jaguars fed him a steady diet of everything. But this year he only produced one game over 77 rushing yards and just one touchdown. His role as a receiver is inconsistent at best because the Jags sometimes hold him in to help block so that Gabbert can throw more incompletions. Jones-Drew has been limited to 13 or fewer carries in three of the last four games. It is just not happening in Jacksonville and there is nothing that Jones-Drew can do about it.

This will be interesting since the Jaguars have not faced a defense as weak as the Raiders but then again - on the road. And while the Raiders rank poorly against most positions, that is influenced by games against PIT, DEN and ATL. The Jags have been on their bye and preparing for this game for two weeks. But - that still doesn't magically give them a passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 22 32 28 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 26 25 23 25 29 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @BAL 20000019002 ***
The Ravens are certainly flawed in their secondary with Jimmy Smith out, but there's nothing in Bortles' nine games with one or zero touchdown passes to suggest he's ready to take advantage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Storm Johnson, JAC @BAL 2001100000 ***
Update: With Denard Robinson out Storm might get some touches, but don't expect anything but a steady rain of tears if you're forced to plug him into your fantasy lineup this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jordan Todman, JAC @BAL 2002100000 ***
Update: It's a lousy matchup for Todman to possibly get a portion of the carries. You want no part of him in your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC @BAL 200000000 ***
Gerhart will get the carries with Denard Robinson on the shelf, but no back has rushed for more than 68 yards against Baltimore this year so don't expect much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @BAL 005600000 ***
There might be a touchdown here against Baltimore's scuffling secondary, but right now Lee is splitting targets with Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts to the point that none of them stand out as a fantasy option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC @BAL 004500000 ***
Shorts is in a walk year and with Jacksonville drafting so many wideouts it's unlikely they bring him back. So it's a favorable matchup against a struggling secondary; whether or not Shorts can do anything about it, however, remains to be seen.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @BAL 003300000 ***
Hurns has a chance to carve out a niche in the Jacksonville passing game down the stretch, but he can't be banked on in the Jaguars' fractured receiving corps--even given a favorable matchup with the struggling Ravens' secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @BAL 004400000 ***
Don't get too hopped up over Lewis' 69-yard performance last week, as he's unlikely to repeat it against a Baltimore D that's allowed only one non-Jimmy Smith TE TD since Week 5.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @BAL 2200 ***
Scobee is averaging less than five points per game; no reason to look for him for fantasy help.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 220,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 80,1 2-20
RB Darren McFadden 100,1 3-20,1
WR James Jones 4-50,1
WR Denarius Moore 5-100,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A week off on their bye and the Raiders returned to almost take down the unbeaten Falcons in their stadium. It was easily the best defensive effort of the year and one of the best offensive showings of the year. And sure, it was sort of a trap game that the Falcons clearly were trying to mail in and still got away with it. The Raiders have a a very nice schedule from here on out and even the tougher games no longer look as intimidating. A win this week could start off a decent run of good games.

Carson Palmer reversed a two game slide in yardage with 353 yards in Atlanta but he still only passed for one score. Aside from the Steeler trap game, Palmer has posted decent yardage but only scores once against opponents. He too should enjoy the upcoming stretch of easier games.

Darren McFadden has been a huge disappointment to fantasy owners but he came to life in Atlanta with a touchdown on his 27 carries for 70 yards and added three catches for 28 more yards - his best receiver role since the season opener when he caught 13 passes.No should enjoy a few easier games than McFadden who appears to be getting at least partially on track after opening the year with mostly bad games.

Brandon Meyers is the most consistently productive receiver for the Raiders by far. While he has not yet scored, Meyers remains above 55 yards in all but one game with around five catches per week. That's far better reliability than any other receiver.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is back from his concussion but did not catch either of his passes in Atlanta and has failed to pick up the new offense and make any difference this year. Denarius Moore has been the only fantasy relevant wideout and marginally so with only one game above 71 yards. But Moore is getting better and receiving eight to ten targets per week as the leader on the team. He comes off a 104 yard, five catch effort last week with a score. Derek Hagen pitches in as does Rod Streater but this passing attack has been pedestrian. Even with the nice yardage in several games, it has never translated into big games for an individual player.

This is the week that McFadden should shine. The Jaguars show up with one of the weakest defenses against running backs that has already allowed eight touchdowns to the position and consider the Colts and Bengals skewed the numbers lower than they should be. This is the same defense that gave up 219 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Texans.

The Jaguars also allowed two scores to each of the last three opposing quarterbacks. This could be a decent passing effort as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 18 9 25 16 18 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 30 18 7 26 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @KC 0000017002 ***
254 and 3 against the Niners is nothing to sneeze at, but it's also Carr's first fantasy-relevant game in a month. And now he's off to KC to face a Chiefs defense that held him to 174 and 1 three weeks ago. You have better fantasy options at your disposal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, OAK @KC 6002100000 ***
The vaunted Chiefs run D has now allowed four straight 100-yard rushers, a streak extended by Murray's 112 and 2 on just four carries in Week 12. And it's not like CJ Anderson and Kerwynn Williams were household names coming into the season, either. Touchdowns are still hard to come by against KC, but it looks like Murray will get the touches necessary to carve out a performance league fantasy helper.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Holmes, OAK @KC 004600000 ***
It's been two months since the Raiders had a wideout go for more than 70 yards. That, plus a dearth of passing scores, makes it difficult for any receiver to generate fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK @KC 006500000 ***
Jones hasn't produced 50-plus receiving yards in a month and a half, and a date with a stout Chiefs secondary isn't likely to rectify the situation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK @KC 005500000 ***
After a sluggish start the Chiefs have zoned in on shutting down tight ends, allowing only one TE TD in the past six weeks. Rivera is coming off a 7-109-1 outing, but after generating just one catch for eight yards in the earlier meeting with KC expectations should be lowered.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @KC 3300 ***
You can do better than the half-dozen points Seabass will give you.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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