FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: JAC 17, OAK 27 (Line: OAK by 4)

Players Updated: Sebastian Janikowski

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon, Darren McFadden

This is a game that you have to like because one of these teams are going to win. The 1-4 Raiders are 0-2 at home and the 1-4 Jaguars are 1-1 on the road. This could go in any number of ways but almost certainly is not going to contain a lot of points.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30,1

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars come off their bye and with any luck maybe they discovered an offense. Bought one off of EBay or maybe just stopped hoping for anything more than one touchdown from Maurice Jones-Drew and spent all their time making a better special teams so hopefully they can score a touchdown. Because there has not been more than one since the season opener. The last game played hosting the Bears only to lose 3-41 means that the Jaguars are not throwing in the towel, it means they can't throw anything.

Blaine Gabbert is no different than the #32 quarterback we knew in 2011 except this time he has high-priced receivers that he cannot connect with instead of no-name slugs. Gabbert has taken the best wide receiver that came out of the NFL draft and so far Justin Blackmon only caught 13 passes for 119 yards over five games. Gabbert has not passed for more than 186 yards in the last four matchups and averaged a whopping 134 passing yards. He has thrown five touchdowns, somehow, but has no yardage doing it.

Laurent Robinson is still impacted by his concussions and is not expected to practice this week or play. WIth three concussions over the last three months, Robinson might be out for a while and seriously, who cares? He went from being a star in Dallas to catching only nine passes for 134 yards this year. Cecil Shorts will replace him and is the current scoring leader for the Jaguars because he has two touchdowns this year. Yes, that includes Maurice Jones-Drew. Marcedes Lewis remains below 34 yards in each game since week one.

Jones-Drew was the only part of the offense that worked last year and ended up leading the NFL in rushing yardage because the Jaguars fed him a steady diet of everything. But this year he only produced one game over 77 rushing yards and just one touchdown. His role as a receiver is inconsistent at best because the Jags sometimes hold him in to help block so that Gabbert can throw more incompletions. Jones-Drew has been limited to 13 or fewer carries in three of the last four games. It is just not happening in Jacksonville and there is nothing that Jones-Drew can do about it.

This will be interesting since the Jaguars have not faced a defense as weak as the Raiders but then again - on the road. And while the Raiders rank poorly against most positions, that is influenced by games against PIT, DEN and ATL. The Jags have been on their bye and preparing for this game for two weeks. But - that still doesn't magically give them a passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 22 32 28 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 26 25 23 25 29 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC IND 10000032020 ***
Despite all of its injury problems on defense to begin the year, Indy's defense of quarterbacks has been respectable -- bend (936 yards) but not break (3 TDs). Bortles racked up five total touchdowns and no interceptions (two fumbles lost) versus this group last season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC IND 3011100000 **
Ivory's status for Week 4 is unknown after suffering foot and ankle injuries last week. Check back Friday for an update on his status. The presumption is that he will play, but limitations may exist. Consider him a wildcard in non-PPR leagues against this mushy run D.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC IND 3005300000 ***
Indy has yielded six touchdowns (two receiving) to RBs this year, helping pave the way for the second worst fantasy RB defense. Yeldon, on his own merits, is barely playable. The matchup offers a glimmer of hope.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC IND 006801000 ***
Indy's defense somehow weathered the storm of having so many defensive backfield injuries and hasn't permitted a WR touchdown this season. Hurns, though, remains a fine PPR play given their high volume of receptions allowed (42).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC IND 006801000 ***
Don't bench your studs, as Robinson proved last week after a slow start to the year. Indy has not allowed a WR touchdown yet but has given up 42 receptions for 537 yards. Robinson caught five balls for 84 yards and a TD in two games last year against the Colts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC IND 003300000 *
The Colts rank in the middle of the league against tight ends, which stems from permitting a 15-186-1 line. Thomas is in that fringe territory for weekly starters. Look for a quality showing across the pond in Week 4.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC IND 2222 ***
The Colts are the third easiest matchup for kickers to exploit, and it could be worse for Indy if opposing feet were more accurate. Kickers have gone 8-for-9 on FGAs and 7-for-9 on XPAs.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Michael Crabtree 3-40
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A week off on their bye and the Raiders returned to almost take down the unbeaten Falcons in their stadium. It was easily the best defensive effort of the year and one of the best offensive showings of the year. And sure, it was sort of a trap game that the Falcons clearly were trying to mail in and still got away with it. The Raiders have a a very nice schedule from here on out and even the tougher games no longer look as intimidating. A win this week could start off a decent run of good games.

Carson Palmer reversed a two game slide in yardage with 353 yards in Atlanta but he still only passed for one score. Aside from the Steeler trap game, Palmer has posted decent yardage but only scores once against opponents. He too should enjoy the upcoming stretch of easier games.

Darren McFadden has been a huge disappointment to fantasy owners but he came to life in Atlanta with a touchdown on his 27 carries for 70 yards and added three catches for 28 more yards - his best receiver role since the season opener when he caught 13 passes.No should enjoy a few easier games than McFadden who appears to be getting at least partially on track after opening the year with mostly bad games.

Brandon Meyers is the most consistently productive receiver for the Raiders by far. While he has not yet scored, Meyers remains above 55 yards in all but one game with around five catches per week. That's far better reliability than any other receiver.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is back from his concussion but did not catch either of his passes in Atlanta and has failed to pick up the new offense and make any difference this year. Denarius Moore has been the only fantasy relevant wideout and marginally so with only one game above 71 yards. But Moore is getting better and receiving eight to ten targets per week as the leader on the team. He comes off a 104 yard, five catch effort last week with a score. Derek Hagen pitches in as does Rod Streater but this passing attack has been pedestrian. Even with the nice yardage in several games, it has never translated into big games for an individual player.

This is the week that McFadden should shine. The Jaguars show up with one of the weakest defenses against running backs that has already allowed eight touchdowns to the position and consider the Colts and Bengals skewed the numbers lower than they should be. This is the same defense that gave up 219 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Texans.

The Jaguars also allowed two scores to each of the last three opposing quarterbacks. This could be a decent passing effort as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 18 9 25 16 18 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 30 18 7 26 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @BAL 0000025011 ***
Baltimore rates as the fifth strongest defense of fantasy quarterbacks, actually giving up fewer touchdowns than passes intercepted. Carr could be in for a sluggish fantasy day, but he must be started by owners without a clearer path to more points.

Update: Oakland will be without two starting linemen and possibly a third.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, OAK @BAL 5011100000 **
Seven teams have been harder on RBs than Baltimore. Murray has lost touches to Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington each week. Keep him in your lineup, but he'll need to score to exceed flex expectations.

Update: Oakland will be without two starting linemen and possibly a third.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK @BAL 006801000 ***
Crabtree was greatly undervalued on draft day in most leagues, and he emerged as a strong fantasy weapon with all of the attention paid to Amari Cooper. Baltimore has given up four scores in three games to wideouts, so there's hope for another quality game from the former 49er.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @BAL 005700000 ***
Baltimore's defense as allowed four touchdowns to receivers but only 35 catches for 367 yards to rank among the 10 hardest matchups. Cooper can't buy a touchdown over his past 10 games, so keep him in PPR lineups and hope for the best. He's now a fringe play in standard scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @BAL 002300000 ***
Roberts could sneak into the end zone again if Cooper and Crabtree are blanketed, but banking on it is difficult against the seventh best defense of receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clive Walford, OAK @BAL 003300000 ***
Baltimore hasn't allowed a touchdown to the position yet on the only 10 receptions snared by tight ends. Walford has upside and can exploit single LB and safety coverage better than most. Play him only if you must.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @BAL 1122 ***
Baltimore has been the strongest team against kickers, giving up only one field goal and five extra points.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

a d v e r t i s e m e n t