FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: JAC 17, OAK 27 (Line: OAK by 4)

Players Updated: Sebastian Janikowski

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon, Darren McFadden

This is a game that you have to like because one of these teams are going to win. The 1-4 Raiders are 0-2 at home and the 1-4 Jaguars are 1-1 on the road. This could go in any number of ways but almost certainly is not going to contain a lot of points.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30,1

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars come off their bye and with any luck maybe they discovered an offense. Bought one off of EBay or maybe just stopped hoping for anything more than one touchdown from Maurice Jones-Drew and spent all their time making a better special teams so hopefully they can score a touchdown. Because there has not been more than one since the season opener. The last game played hosting the Bears only to lose 3-41 means that the Jaguars are not throwing in the towel, it means they can't throw anything.

Blaine Gabbert is no different than the #32 quarterback we knew in 2011 except this time he has high-priced receivers that he cannot connect with instead of no-name slugs. Gabbert has taken the best wide receiver that came out of the NFL draft and so far Justin Blackmon only caught 13 passes for 119 yards over five games. Gabbert has not passed for more than 186 yards in the last four matchups and averaged a whopping 134 passing yards. He has thrown five touchdowns, somehow, but has no yardage doing it.

Laurent Robinson is still impacted by his concussions and is not expected to practice this week or play. WIth three concussions over the last three months, Robinson might be out for a while and seriously, who cares? He went from being a star in Dallas to catching only nine passes for 134 yards this year. Cecil Shorts will replace him and is the current scoring leader for the Jaguars because he has two touchdowns this year. Yes, that includes Maurice Jones-Drew. Marcedes Lewis remains below 34 yards in each game since week one.

Jones-Drew was the only part of the offense that worked last year and ended up leading the NFL in rushing yardage because the Jaguars fed him a steady diet of everything. But this year he only produced one game over 77 rushing yards and just one touchdown. His role as a receiver is inconsistent at best because the Jags sometimes hold him in to help block so that Gabbert can throw more incompletions. Jones-Drew has been limited to 13 or fewer carries in three of the last four games. It is just not happening in Jacksonville and there is nothing that Jones-Drew can do about it.

This will be interesting since the Jaguars have not faced a defense as weak as the Raiders but then again - on the road. And while the Raiders rank poorly against most positions, that is influenced by games against PIT, DEN and ATL. The Jags have been on their bye and preparing for this game for two weeks. But - that still doesn't magically give them a passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 22 32 28 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 26 25 23 25 29 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC HOU 0000030020 ***
Bortles continues to quietly string together capable fantasy efforts. The Texans have permitted quarterbacks to average 21.5 fantasy points an outing, coming mostly from 247.4 yards (15th) and a TD every 12.8 completions (15th). These teams last played in Week 1, which might as well be 75 years ago.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC HOU 6012200000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC HOU 2004300000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC HOU 003901000 ***
In the past three games, the rookie has been targeted an average of nine times. He has caught at least five balls in each game, producing his finest game to date in Week 14 vs. Seattle (19.1 points). The Texans have allowed receivers to post modest fantasy stats of late. Westbrook has plenty of upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC HOU 006801000 ***
Lee (foot) was limited in Wednesday's session. Way back in Week 1, Lee was blanked on his four targets. The Texans offer a midrange opponent statistically. Lee has at least five catches in five of his last six, securing a trio of TDs along the way. He is no worse than a reasonable flex play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC HOU 003500000 ***
Cole has scored the past two games and faces a midrange matchup. With the playoffs on the line, counting on him making it three straight is a leap owners shouldn't want to take.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC HOU 002300000 ***
Lewis is always a candidate for the fluke touchdown. Houston has given up TEs scores with the fifth-highest frequency, but banking on this is a crapshoot.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC HOU 3333 ***
This is the top matchup for finding fantasy success, with Houston having given up a matching 2.6 field goal and extra point tries per contest since Week 9.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 80 1-10
WR Michael Crabtree 3-40
TE Jared Cook 4-50
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A week off on their bye and the Raiders returned to almost take down the unbeaten Falcons in their stadium. It was easily the best defensive effort of the year and one of the best offensive showings of the year. And sure, it was sort of a trap game that the Falcons clearly were trying to mail in and still got away with it. The Raiders have a a very nice schedule from here on out and even the tougher games no longer look as intimidating. A win this week could start off a decent run of good games.

Carson Palmer reversed a two game slide in yardage with 353 yards in Atlanta but he still only passed for one score. Aside from the Steeler trap game, Palmer has posted decent yardage but only scores once against opponents. He too should enjoy the upcoming stretch of easier games.

Darren McFadden has been a huge disappointment to fantasy owners but he came to life in Atlanta with a touchdown on his 27 carries for 70 yards and added three catches for 28 more yards - his best receiver role since the season opener when he caught 13 passes.No should enjoy a few easier games than McFadden who appears to be getting at least partially on track after opening the year with mostly bad games.

Brandon Meyers is the most consistently productive receiver for the Raiders by far. While he has not yet scored, Meyers remains above 55 yards in all but one game with around five catches per week. That's far better reliability than any other receiver.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is back from his concussion but did not catch either of his passes in Atlanta and has failed to pick up the new offense and make any difference this year. Denarius Moore has been the only fantasy relevant wideout and marginally so with only one game above 71 yards. But Moore is getting better and receiving eight to ten targets per week as the leader on the team. He comes off a 104 yard, five catch effort last week with a score. Derek Hagen pitches in as does Rod Streater but this passing attack has been pedestrian. Even with the nice yardage in several games, it has never translated into big games for an individual player.

This is the week that McFadden should shine. The Jaguars show up with one of the weakest defenses against running backs that has already allowed eight touchdowns to the position and consider the Colts and Bengals skewed the numbers lower than they should be. This is the same defense that gave up 219 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Texans.

The Jaguars also allowed two scores to each of the last three opposing quarterbacks. This could be a decent passing effort as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 18 9 25 16 18 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 30 18 7 26 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK DAL 0000026011 ***
While Dallas offers a positive-leaning matchup, Carr hasn't done enough to warrant a fantasy start this week. Look for figures somewhere around the mediocre stats allowed by the Cowboys (259.2 yards, 2 TDs/game). Unless you lost Carson Wentz, Carr should be parked.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK DAL 7012100000 ***
Dallas has given up a ton of yards and receptions to RBs, clamping down on touchdowns allowed. The projection is hopeful, but don't be surprised if Lynch fails to find the end zone. He's a fringe flex consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK DAL 006801000 ***
Wideouts have had their way with the Dallas secondary lately. Since Week 9, the position has averaged 12.6 catches (9th) for 155 yards (13th) and a TD every nine grabs (4th). Amari Cooper is unlikely to play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, OAK DAL 003500000 ***
Patterson should see more work with Amari Cooper (ankle) back on the mend. The Cowboys have provided receivers a safe haven in the end zone, allowing a TD every nine catches (4th). The position has gone for the ninth-highest average for catches and 13th for yardage gained per week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Johnny Holton, OAK DAL 003400000 ***
Holton is a pure deep threat and faces an offense giving up the 11th-most points per play in fantasy. The majority of that success comes from allowing a TD every nine catches by receivers, or the fourth-highest rate. Taking a flier on Holton is OK in DFS-only this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK DAL 005500000 **
Dallas offers Cook a prime matchup for fantasy success. The Cowboys have provided the fifth-most receptions and ninth-most yards per game, allowing a trio of TDs in the last five games to tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Giorgio Tavecchio, OAK DAL 1122 ***
Just 78.6 percent of the kicks against the Cowboys have been accurate, which is the third-worst rate since Week 9. More importantly, the possible points ranks second-fewest, and this is the third-lowest matchup for kicking opportunities.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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