FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: JAC 17, OAK 27 (Line: OAK by 4)

Players Updated: Sebastian Janikowski

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon, Darren McFadden

This is a game that you have to like because one of these teams are going to win. The 1-4 Raiders are 0-2 at home and the 1-4 Jaguars are 1-1 on the road. This could go in any number of ways but almost certainly is not going to contain a lot of points.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK ----- 16 NE -----
8 @GB ----- 17 @TEN -----
9 DET ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30,1

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars come off their bye and with any luck maybe they discovered an offense. Bought one off of EBay or maybe just stopped hoping for anything more than one touchdown from Maurice Jones-Drew and spent all their time making a better special teams so hopefully they can score a touchdown. Because there has not been more than one since the season opener. The last game played hosting the Bears only to lose 3-41 means that the Jaguars are not throwing in the towel, it means they can't throw anything.

Blaine Gabbert is no different than the #32 quarterback we knew in 2011 except this time he has high-priced receivers that he cannot connect with instead of no-name slugs. Gabbert has taken the best wide receiver that came out of the NFL draft and so far Justin Blackmon only caught 13 passes for 119 yards over five games. Gabbert has not passed for more than 186 yards in the last four matchups and averaged a whopping 134 passing yards. He has thrown five touchdowns, somehow, but has no yardage doing it.

Laurent Robinson is still impacted by his concussions and is not expected to practice this week or play. WIth three concussions over the last three months, Robinson might be out for a while and seriously, who cares? He went from being a star in Dallas to catching only nine passes for 134 yards this year. Cecil Shorts will replace him and is the current scoring leader for the Jaguars because he has two touchdowns this year. Yes, that includes Maurice Jones-Drew. Marcedes Lewis remains below 34 yards in each game since week one.

Jones-Drew was the only part of the offense that worked last year and ended up leading the NFL in rushing yardage because the Jaguars fed him a steady diet of everything. But this year he only produced one game over 77 rushing yards and just one touchdown. His role as a receiver is inconsistent at best because the Jags sometimes hold him in to help block so that Gabbert can throw more incompletions. Jones-Drew has been limited to 13 or fewer carries in three of the last four games. It is just not happening in Jacksonville and there is nothing that Jones-Drew can do about it.

This will be interesting since the Jaguars have not faced a defense as weak as the Raiders but then again - on the road. And while the Raiders rank poorly against most positions, that is influenced by games against PIT, DEN and ATL. The Jags have been on their bye and preparing for this game for two weeks. But - that still doesn't magically give them a passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 22 32 28 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 26 25 23 25 29 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC MIN 30100019002 ***
Minnesota has given up a TD every 12.5 completions in the last month, but that is where the fun stops for QBs. This is the sixth strongest opponent of the position, and only two teams have conceded more yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC MIN 3003200000 ***
Yeldon should be be trusted in any format against this stingy opponent. The Vikings have allowed only two rushing touchdowns by RBs in the last five games.

Update: Chris Ivory is a game-time decision, but after not practicing in full at all this week, he's closer to doubtful.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC MIN 003300000 ***
No Harrison Smith could help, but the Vikings have done a fantastic job of limited receivers. The position has averaged bottom-12 numbers in receptions, yards, points per play, and fantasy points scored over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC MIN 004300000 ***
The Vikings remain one of fantasy's toughest defenses against receivers. Since Week 8, this is the eighth worst matchup for fantasy wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Neal Sterling, JAC MIN 004500000 ***
Neal would see more work if Julius Thomas is once again out, but trusting him in a lineup is ill-advised.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC MIN 1111 ***
The Vikings have done a fine job of limiting defensive touchdowns all year, and that hasn't changed in the past five weeks. The kicker position has kicked 12 field goals to only nine extra points in this time. Jacksonville struggles to score points of any kind.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC ----- 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC ----- 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Michael Crabtree 3-40
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A week off on their bye and the Raiders returned to almost take down the unbeaten Falcons in their stadium. It was easily the best defensive effort of the year and one of the best offensive showings of the year. And sure, it was sort of a trap game that the Falcons clearly were trying to mail in and still got away with it. The Raiders have a a very nice schedule from here on out and even the tougher games no longer look as intimidating. A win this week could start off a decent run of good games.

Carson Palmer reversed a two game slide in yardage with 353 yards in Atlanta but he still only passed for one score. Aside from the Steeler trap game, Palmer has posted decent yardage but only scores once against opponents. He too should enjoy the upcoming stretch of easier games.

Darren McFadden has been a huge disappointment to fantasy owners but he came to life in Atlanta with a touchdown on his 27 carries for 70 yards and added three catches for 28 more yards - his best receiver role since the season opener when he caught 13 passes.No should enjoy a few easier games than McFadden who appears to be getting at least partially on track after opening the year with mostly bad games.

Brandon Meyers is the most consistently productive receiver for the Raiders by far. While he has not yet scored, Meyers remains above 55 yards in all but one game with around five catches per week. That's far better reliability than any other receiver.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is back from his concussion but did not catch either of his passes in Atlanta and has failed to pick up the new offense and make any difference this year. Denarius Moore has been the only fantasy relevant wideout and marginally so with only one game above 71 yards. But Moore is getting better and receiving eight to ten targets per week as the leader on the team. He comes off a 104 yard, five catch effort last week with a score. Derek Hagen pitches in as does Rod Streater but this passing attack has been pedestrian. Even with the nice yardage in several games, it has never translated into big games for an individual player.

This is the week that McFadden should shine. The Jaguars show up with one of the weakest defenses against running backs that has already allowed eight touchdowns to the position and consider the Colts and Bengals skewed the numbers lower than they should be. This is the same defense that gave up 219 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Texans.

The Jaguars also allowed two scores to each of the last three opposing quarterbacks. This could be a decent passing effort as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 18 9 25 16 18 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 30 18 7 26 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @KC 0000026022 ***
Traveling to KC on a short week is never ideal, but Carr gets fantasy's third worst defense of quarterbacks. The position has averaged the highest yards-per-catch figure and third most yards per game in the last five weeks when facing KC. Carr posted a 225-1-1 line in Week 6 against the Chiefs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, OAK @KC 6003300000 ***
Unless he scores, Murray is hardly reliable for fantasy points. The Chiefs are more beatable through the air, and that's how Oakland's offense butters its bread. Murray is facing the eighth hardest matchup of the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @KC 2001100000 ***
Richard sees limited work but does almost nothing with it. He has no fantasy worth in Week 14.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @KC 006901000 ***
Cooper saw far more work in the last matchup with the Chiefs, as Marcus Peters followed Michael Crabtree around. The Raiders are playing as well as anyone, and KC has given up the second most fantasy points per contest in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @KC 003401000 ***
The matchup is ideal if you want to take a chance, but the last time these two played, Roberts caught only three of his six looks for just 29 yards. He has no value without finding the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK @KC 005600000 ***
Marcus Peters eliminated Crabtree (2-10-0) in Week 6, so consider this projection to be on the optimistic side. Oakland has played extremely well on the road, but Arrowhead is a different demon. KC, overall, is the second worst defense of WRs in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clive Walford, OAK @KC 003300000 ***
Oakland doesn't consistently utilize the position enough to seriously consider Walford in any fantasy league.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @KC 2222 ***
KC has allowed the ninth most fantasy points, largely based on giving up the eighth highest average of field goal per game since Week 8.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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