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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: NO 27, TB 30 (Line: NO by 3)

Players Updated: Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore, Vincent Jackson

Players to Watch: Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore

The 1-4 Saints bring their 0-2 road record to face the 2-3 Buccaneers who are 2-1 at home. These teams traded home wins in 2011. The Buccaneers won 26-20 in Tampa Bay and the Saints won 27-16 in New Orleans. This is one of those divisional games that ends up closer than expected if not an upset.

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL -----
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK -----
3 KC 24-27 12 SF -----
4 @GB 27-28 13 @ATL -----
5 SD 31-24 14 @NYG -----
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB ----- 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN ----- 17 CAR -----
9 PHI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 330,2
RB Darren Sproles 20 6-50
RB Pierre Thomas 50,1 3-20
WR Marques Colston 6-100,1
WR Devery Henderson 3-40
WR Lance Moore 5-70,1
TE Jimmy Graham
TE Benjamin Watson 1-10
PK Garrett Hartley 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Saints finally broke their winless streak thanks to the visiting Chargers and now faces the Buccaneers with a 0-2 road record. The problem this year has not been the offense nearly as much as the defense. The one win was the only time they held any opponent to fewer than 27 points. Plus the NFL upheld the suspensions stemming from BountyGate during the bye week.

Drew Brees remains at the top of the fantasy quarterbacks with 15 touchdowns over the first five weeks and he passed for over 325 yards in all but one game. The rushing efforts has been far less effective this year and not supported the offense. That's mostly because the defense allows so many points to every opponent that each week becomes another delightful shootout. Brees has been a lock for high yardage and three scores.

Mark Ingram has scored just once and that was the only rushing touchdown by a running back in 2012. The split between all runners means none of them are a decent fantasy play other than Darren Sproles mostly because of his 5+ catches in all but one game. Sproles is well off his 2011 pace but still offers at least moderate fantasy points. No other runner is worth owning on this team let alone starting him.

Jimmy Graham rolled his ankle against the Chargers and only had one catch in that game. He was in a walking boot last week and despite rumors of a high ankle sprain, the official report is that he will play this week. This bears watching during the week for Graham owners as the Saints are not generally very forthcoming on injury information. Graham has not been quite as prolific as he was in 2011 but did score in each of the first three games and has 70+ yards in most games. Good... but not win your league good. Considering how highly he was drafted, he has been at least a slight disappointment.

Marques Colston was a disappointment until week four when he turned in 9-153 with one touchdown and then posted 9-131 and three scores on the Chargers. He's been the primary receiver for the last two games but that came with Graham not scoring these last two weeks. Once Graham was injured last week, Colston was thrown a total of 18 passes. Lance Moore missed the last game with a hamstring injury but has been healing for two weeks now and is expected to return to practice after sitting out all last week.

The receivers need to get healthy here since the Buccaneers were already soft versus the pass and just lost their best cornerback to a four-game suspension. The Saints practices will be closely watched since Graham and Moore both have a big bearing on the Saints offense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 1 6 4 15 19 25
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 16 15 27 12 18 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO CAR 0000032020 *****
Brees has his final game of the year and it comes at home. He's a lock for solid yardage and at least one score but the rushing effort should come into play this week as it always does against CAR. Brees is a must start regardless but may not be as prolific this week as he is in most.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, NO CAR 1007701000 ****
Sproles had his biggest game of the year in the last meeting with the Panthers when he caught 13 passes for 128 yards. He's a solid play this week and always benefits from the good corner play of the Panthers that forces Brees to check down to him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mark Ingram, NO CAR 701000000 ****
Ingram has been on a roll for the last month and was good for 16-53 and one score versus the Panthers in week two. He's getting 13 carries every week now and faces the weakness of the Panthers defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marques Colston, NO CAR 004500000 ****
Colston was held to only 3-49 in the last meeting and CAR has allowed only one TD to a WR over the last five road games. Rely on moderate yardage here and anything more would be unusual for the Panthers to allow.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Lance Moore, NO CAR 004400000 ***
Moore was held to 2-30 in the last meeting with CAR and he's too inconsistent to merit a fantasy start anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, NO CAR 005701000 ****
Graham turned in 7-71 and a TD in the last meeting but has been butterfingers for the last two months because of his wrist. The Panthers gave up a score to a TE in the last two road games and Graham is due. He's a must start every week regardless.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Benjamin Watson, NO CAR 003300000 *
Not a recommended start anyway and with a potential starting QB from the practice squad even less.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Garrett Hartley, NO CAR 3333 ****
Nice start for Hartley against a team that ranks in the bottom five against kickers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB vs NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 10 270,2
RB Doug Martin 100,1 6-40
WR Vincent Jackson 5-80,1
WR Tiquan Underwood 2-30
WR Mike Williams 6-80,1
TE Dallas Clark 2-20
TE Tom Crabtree 2-20
PK Connor Barth 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers reversed a two game losing streak with a monster win over the visiting Chiefs and this week may actually prove to be one of the most "winnable" games left on the schedule.The offense has been very good so long as they face a weak defense like the Saints. And lost a bit has been the improvement of the Buccaneers defense. Losing CB Aqib Talib could be felt in games such as this but they held off Brady Quinn and Dwayne Bowe last week with no problems. Granted - Brees and Quinn maybe not on the same level.

Josh Freeman scored in every game this year and currently totals eight touchdowns against five interceptions. After starting the season with lesser passing yardage, he's topped 299 yards in each of the last two games and gets to face yet another velvety soft secondary with the Saints visiting. Freeman no longer runs the ball but he's been improving with his passing thanks in part to Vincent Jackson giving him both a better target and freeing up Mike Williams.

Doug Martin lost a score to LeGarrette Blount for the last two games and Blount even broke a 53-yarder last week to end with 58 yards on seven runs versus the Chiefs but this remains Doug Martin's show away from the goal line. Martin gained 76 yards on 13 runs versus the Chiefs and added two catches for 55 more yards. Martin hasn't proven to be much better than what the defense allows any rusher but he is facing the #32 unit against running backs this week and that should prove to be major boost. Unless Blount hawks scores and runs again.

Tight ends here are dead last in the league with just 11 completions to the position this year.

This remains a two man show with receivers. Vincent Jackson stumbled against the cornerbacks in Dallas but scored four times over the last four games with two efforts ending with more than 100 yards. His presence has allowed Mike Williams more room to run and he scored three touchdowns with his last two games producing over 110 yards on just four catches in each. With the Saints porous secondary coming to town, both receivers are must starts this week and even Tiquan Underwood could show up in the box score big this week. Sadly the only strength of the Saints is against tight ends and the Buccaneers never used their. This may be the final big game for Tampa Bay players for a while.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 24 20 15 32 12 11
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 29 32 30 2 28 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Freeman, TB @ATL 0000026011 ***
Riding a five-game losing streak, about all the Bucs have going for them is that Atlanta is more concerned about resting regulars for the postseason than winning this game. Expect Freeman to get the 157 yards he needs for a 4,000-yard season, and probably even a little more.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @ATL 10014300000 ***
The ROY award is out of reach, but Martin would still like to wrap up his first NFL season on a strong note. He scored twice in the earlier meeting with Atlanta, and he should see plenty of touches against a disinterested defense to pad his stat totals.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Williams, TB @ATL 005701000 ***
Whatever resources remain in the Atlanta secondary after the regulars have been benched will likely be focusing on Vincent Jackson. Williams has made a killing on similar situations all season, and he's in line to do so again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @ATL 004800000 ***
Jackson is a favored target of Josh Freeman, so with Freeman needing some yardage to crack 4K he'll continue to see his looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tiquan Underwood, TB @ATL 002300000 ***
Underwood has been Tampa Bay's third man in in the passing game, but it hasn't constituted much in the way of fantasy help. Unless Vincent Jackson and/or Mike Williams get an early and extended breather, it probably won't help here either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dallas Clark, TB @ATL 004400000 ***
Clark hasn't been a huge focus in the Tampa Bay passing game, but he's veteran enough to know that he's either auditioning for more looks next year or putting together tape to show his next prospective employer.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, TB @ATL 2122 ***
Barth might get a few additional opportunities against a disinterested Atlanta defense, but that's hardly something to hang your fantasy hat on.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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