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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: NYJ 10, NE 34 (Line: NE by 10.5)

Players Updated: Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Bolden

Players to Watch: Jonathan Grimes, Stevan Ridley

The Patriots Jets come off a huge win over the Colts while the Jets Patriots lost to the Seahawks. There is a four-way tie at 3-3 for the AFC East and this game starts to help sort that out. The Pats are 1-1 at home and the Jets are 1-1 on the road. But after losing in Seattle. the visiting Jets should be exactly what the Patriots need right now.

The Patriots swept the Jets in 2011, winning 30-21 at home and later 37-16 in New York.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Johnson 90,1 2-10
RB Bilal Powell
WR T.J. Graham 1-20
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-70,1
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets got to pretend that everything was okay when they dismantled the visiting Colts last week in a romp that was without any precedent. At least not with the Jets on the winning side. It may give the offense some confidence and satisfy the New York media for a week but all the same problems still exist and that's going to be apparent playing in New England against a Patriots team coming off an upset loss in Seattle.

Mark Sanchez only threw 18 passes against the Colts for 82 yards and two touchdowns. It was a week where it all worked so well that Sanchez had little to do other than handoff for most of the game. But this is the same quarterback who only threw for three scores over the previous four games and with yardage that normally remains south of 200 yards. Thanks to the loss of Santonio Holmes, that is not likely to change soon.

Shonn Greene set career marks across the board when he ran 32 times for 161 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts. The same Colts who came in with a defense missing players including LB Robert Mathis. Then they lost DE Corey Redding at the start of the game and DE Dwight Freeney played injured. It was a nice set-up for the same back that only gained 103 yards and no scores over the previous four games combined. This allowed HC Rex Ryan to praise his back for the great game despite all the qualifications he forgot to mention. This was also a game where Joe McKnight gained 71 yards on three carries.

Notable here is that McKnight suffered a high ankle sprain and is out. Bilal Powell suffered a dislocated shoulder and is out. That leaves just Shonn Greene and Jonathan Grimes who they signed off the Texans practice squad a few weeks ago. That might have makes Grimes an interesting one to watch but we may not see him much. And the reality is that the next two weeks are against the Pats and Dolphins who both sport good rushing defenses.

Dustin Keller is back from the hamstring injury that forced him to miss the last five weeks but only had one catch for six yardage so he picked up right where he left off in week one. But the receivers remain in a bad shape with the loss of Santonio Holmes. Last week Jason Hill scored on his only catch in the game and Stephen Hill turned in the other touchdown with only 23 yards in the game. Jeremy Kerley remains the primary wideout here, such as it exists.

The Patriots have not allowed any runner to gain more than 41 yards in New England and the only touchdown scored by a back was Ray Rice in Baltimore. This is not likely to be a place to see Greene replicate anything from last week. The Pats would play them tough anyway and will take no mercy on their divisional opponent.

House of cards - no rushing means the passing game will be challenged to produce much even though the Patriots have allowed three or more passing touchdowns to each of their last four opponents. If Sanchez gets more than one it will be a huge success.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 29 27 22 29 27 5
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 31 11 29 30 5 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ DET 20000023012 ***
No compelling reason to believe Geno goes where Eli, Cam and Discount Double-Check couldn't and produced a fantasy helper against the Lions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ DET 4013200000 ***
As the bigger back in the Jets' tandem Ivory has a shot at a TD against a Detroit defense that allowed Rashad Jennings and Jonathan Stewart to score against them. However, he's splitting touches with Chris Johnson with puts a cap on his yardage upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ DET 400000000 ***
Johnson won't find much room against a stout Lions run defense. And while you'd think he could capitalize on Detroit's small susceptibility to pass-catching backs, last week it was Chris Ivory handling pass-catching duties as well. You may miss out on the home run, but you'll also miss out on the three or four strikeouts as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ DET 005600000 ***
If Eric Decker can't go Kerley bumps over to first chair, but it's still too tough a match-up to warrant a fantasy start for any Jets wideout.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ DET 004500000 ***
Decker has yet to return to practice after exiting the Jets' Week 3 loss prematurely due to aggravation of his hamstring injury. As if you needed reason to avoid any wideout against a Detroit secondary that's surrendered just one WR TD and zero games of 60 yards or more.
Update: Decker returned to practice Friday on a limited basis, but his upside in this matchup doesn't outweigh the risk of re-injury or being ruled out prior to kickoff.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Salas, NYJ DET 003300000 ***
Salas saw extra snaps last week due to Eric Decker's injury. Best case for Salas: Decker remains sidelined and Salas runs as Jeremy Kerley's wingman against a stout Lions pass D. Worst case: Salas goes back to tertiary target. Neither bolsters his fantasy prospects.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ DET 002301000 **
Simply put, Detroit can't stop opposing tight ends. Amaro is still battling Jeff Cumberland for looks, but he's the better pass-catcher of the duo and thus poised to be a sneaky fantasy play here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ DET 2222 ****
Folk hasn't missed yet this season and is averaging a robust nine points per game. The Lions have clamped down on kickers at home... but this one's in the Empire State. Advantage: Folk.

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN 34-13 10 BUF -----
2 ARI 18-20 11 IND -----
3 @BAL 30-31 12 @NYJ -----
4 @BUF 52-28 13 @MIA -----
5 DEN 31-21 14 HOU -----
6 @SEA 23-24 15 SF -----
7 NYJ ----- 16 @JAC -----
8 @STL ----- 17 MIA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NE vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 290,2
RB Brandon Bolden 30,1
RB Stevan Ridley 100,1
WR Brandon LaFell 2-20
TE Rob Gronkowski 5-60,1
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: It was all going so well in Seattle when the Pats led the Seahawks 23-10 midway through the fourth quarter. And then the Patriots offense went cold and the Seahawks threw two touchdowns including a 46-yard score with only 1:27 left to play. The loss leaves the Patriots 3-3 on the season and still wondering what is happening this season? The reality is that they have problems facing great defenses. Fortunately, that no longer applies to the Jets.

Tom Brady threw a career high 58 passes in the Seattle loss and it gave him his fourth 300+ yard game of the year. He has scored in each week at least once and faces a Jets defense that has been worse both on the pass and run. The only time that Brady has failed to throw for healthy yardage was against the Broncos when they ran 50 times. There will be more rushing this week but Brady gets to face a Jets defense that is banged up and easier to exploit.

Last week the Seahawks shut down the rushing effort but Steven Ridley was coming off two straight games with at least 100 rushing yards and a score. Ridley has three big games to his credit this year and each happened against a weak run defense. Brandon Bolden is the next in line when facing a weak defense that allows more rushing attempts but Danny Woodhead and even Shane Vereen can figure in. But this remains mostly about Ridley and he is the only reliable starter from the bunch.

Aaron Hernandez returned from his ankle sprain after missing three games and while he only played about half of the snaps, he still ended with six catches for 30 yards and one touchdown. Rob Gronkowski ended with six receptions for 61 yards making it only one touchdown in the last four games. Other than the win over the Bills, Gronkowski has not exceeded 75 yards in a game and has been disappointing to every fantasy owner who spent dearly to draft him.

No matter that Hernandez is back, Wes Welker was still the primary receiver last week in Seattle where he posted 10 catches for 138 yards and one touchdown. That makes four games in a row with 8+ catches for 100+ yards. Pure vintage Welker that apparently is not going to change. Brandon Lloyd bruised his shoulder last week but is expected to play depending on practices. He'll be covered mostly by Antonio Cromartie and may have a lesser game for it. Lloyd only scored once this year and has been only marginal with weekly yardage anyway.

Pats at home after a stinging loss and the Jets show up perhaps as weak as they have been in years. The Pats are never good about showing mercy and all fantasy plays here are attractive other than Lloyd if he remains injured.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 6 4 9 1 3 12
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 2 20 22 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE @KC 0000024020 ***
It's been seven games (including playoffs) since Brady threw multiple touchdowns; while the Chiefs have allowed both Peyton Manning and Jake Locker to turn that trick this season there's no real reason to think Brady will do so here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Stevan Ridley, NE @KC 7001100000 ****
The Chiefs have yet to give up a running back touchdown, but New England's MO is to ride Ridley when they're up. They're expected to be up, so Ridley gets the bulk of the touches and provides adequate yardage with the hope of a goal line shot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shane Vereen, NE @KC 3004200000 ***
KC hasn't allowed much to opposing backs via ground or air, which doesn't bode well for Vereen's contributions this week. Unless the Pats are playing from behind they tend to run Ridley and use Vereen as the change of pace, so odds are Vereen's touches--and fantasy impact--will be limited this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julian Edelman, NE @KC 008801000 ***
The death of 1,000 paper cuts, the only way Edelman racks up big yardage is through a high volume of catches. He's borderline elite in PPR leagues but just a contributor in other formats. The good news is, similar possession receivers Kendall Wright and Brian Hartline both scored against the Chiefs so Edelman could pad his stat line with a score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenbrell Thompkins, NE @KC 004500000 ***
Thompkins, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson... they all take turns being fantasy irrelevant. Most weeks, in fact, all are.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE @KC 005501000 ****
The Chiefs have allowed three TE TDs already this season, and with Gronk working his way into more and more snaps he's that much more likely to find the end zone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE @KC 2222 ***
Gosty's averaging double-digit points and has multiple field goals in every game this year. He's a must-start fantasy kicker... like you didn't already know that.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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