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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: NYJ 10, NE 34 (Line: NE by 10.5)

Players Updated: Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Bolden

Players to Watch: Jonathan Grimes, Stevan Ridley

The Patriots Jets come off a huge win over the Colts while the Jets Patriots lost to the Seahawks. There is a four-way tie at 3-3 for the AFC East and this game starts to help sort that out. The Pats are 1-1 at home and the Jets are 1-1 on the road. But after losing in Seattle. the visiting Jets should be exactly what the Patriots need right now.

The Patriots swept the Jets in 2011, winning 30-21 at home and later 37-16 in New York.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 80 3-20,1
RB Bilal Powell
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: The Jets got to pretend that everything was okay when they dismantled the visiting Colts last week in a romp that was without any precedent. At least not with the Jets on the winning side. It may give the offense some confidence and satisfy the New York media for a week but all the same problems still exist and that's going to be apparent playing in New England against a Patriots team coming off an upset loss in Seattle.

Mark Sanchez only threw 18 passes against the Colts for 82 yards and two touchdowns. It was a week where it all worked so well that Sanchez had little to do other than handoff for most of the game. But this is the same quarterback who only threw for three scores over the previous four games and with yardage that normally remains south of 200 yards. Thanks to the loss of Santonio Holmes, that is not likely to change soon.

Shonn Greene set career marks across the board when he ran 32 times for 161 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts. The same Colts who came in with a defense missing players including LB Robert Mathis. Then they lost DE Corey Redding at the start of the game and DE Dwight Freeney played injured. It was a nice set-up for the same back that only gained 103 yards and no scores over the previous four games combined. This allowed HC Rex Ryan to praise his back for the great game despite all the qualifications he forgot to mention. This was also a game where Joe McKnight gained 71 yards on three carries.

Notable here is that McKnight suffered a high ankle sprain and is out. Bilal Powell suffered a dislocated shoulder and is out. That leaves just Shonn Greene and Jonathan Grimes who they signed off the Texans practice squad a few weeks ago. That might have makes Grimes an interesting one to watch but we may not see him much. And the reality is that the next two weeks are against the Pats and Dolphins who both sport good rushing defenses.

Dustin Keller is back from the hamstring injury that forced him to miss the last five weeks but only had one catch for six yardage so he picked up right where he left off in week one. But the receivers remain in a bad shape with the loss of Santonio Holmes. Last week Jason Hill scored on his only catch in the game and Stephen Hill turned in the other touchdown with only 23 yards in the game. Jeremy Kerley remains the primary wideout here, such as it exists.

The Patriots have not allowed any runner to gain more than 41 yards in New England and the only touchdown scored by a back was Ray Rice in Baltimore. This is not likely to be a place to see Greene replicate anything from last week. The Pats would play them tough anyway and will take no mercy on their divisional opponent.

House of cards - no rushing means the passing game will be challenged to produce much even though the Patriots have allowed three or more passing touchdowns to each of their last four opponents. If Sanchez gets more than one it will be a huge success.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 29 27 22 29 27 5
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 31 11 29 30 5 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ MIA 0000019011 ***
Miami permitted 331 yards and a single score in Week 2 against the Chargers. McCown is no Philip Rivers, and this one doesn't offer much upside for the well-aged vet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ MIA 3005400000 ***
Forte was slightly better this past week but should not be deployed with any clearer options on roster. Miami is a modest matchup for the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ MIA 2003200000 *
The Chargers racked up just 109 offensive yards and a TD last week against the Dolphins, 65 of which came through the air on seven snares. Powell needs a larger role in the offense to deserve a fantasy start right now. For the record, he waxed the floor with the Dolphins in Week 15 last year, rushing for 84 yards and receiving 78 on 11 catches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ MIA 005800000 **
Who saw this coming? With basically no time to learn the offense, Kearse has emerged as the go-to receiver for Josh McCown. It may be short-lived, however. Treat him as a WR3 or flex with more assurance in PPR scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ MIA 004400000 ***
After one game, Miami is in the middle of the pack vs. WRs. Most of the damage was done by Keenan Allen. Anderson has mild appeal while Jermaine Kearse plays well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Tye, NYJ MIA 001101000 *
No gamer should trust Tye in a starting lineup this week.

Update: Tye is questionable and did not practice Friday with an illness. He's a GTD.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ MIA 003200000 *
Update: Seferian-Jenkins returns from suspension and should play a minor role. Don't start him in fantasy, but he might be worth a stash in deep setups.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ MIA 2211 ***
Miami gave up three attempted field goals in Week 2, which is encouraging, but only one of which split the uprights. Catanzaro is a deep streaming option.

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN 34-13 10 BUF -----
2 ARI 18-20 11 IND -----
3 @BAL 30-31 12 @NYJ -----
4 @BUF 52-28 13 @MIA -----
5 DEN 31-21 14 HOU -----
6 @SEA 23-24 15 SF -----
7 NYJ ----- 16 @JAC -----
8 @STL ----- 17 MIA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NE vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 290,2
RB Brandon Bolden 30,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20
TE Rob Gronkowski 5-60,1
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: It was all going so well in Seattle when the Pats led the Seahawks 23-10 midway through the fourth quarter. And then the Patriots offense went cold and the Seahawks threw two touchdowns including a 46-yard score with only 1:27 left to play. The loss leaves the Patriots 3-3 on the season and still wondering what is happening this season? The reality is that they have problems facing great defenses. Fortunately, that no longer applies to the Jets.

Tom Brady threw a career high 58 passes in the Seattle loss and it gave him his fourth 300+ yard game of the year. He has scored in each week at least once and faces a Jets defense that has been worse both on the pass and run. The only time that Brady has failed to throw for healthy yardage was against the Broncos when they ran 50 times. There will be more rushing this week but Brady gets to face a Jets defense that is banged up and easier to exploit.

Last week the Seahawks shut down the rushing effort but Steven Ridley was coming off two straight games with at least 100 rushing yards and a score. Ridley has three big games to his credit this year and each happened against a weak run defense. Brandon Bolden is the next in line when facing a weak defense that allows more rushing attempts but Danny Woodhead and even Shane Vereen can figure in. But this remains mostly about Ridley and he is the only reliable starter from the bunch.

Aaron Hernandez returned from his ankle sprain after missing three games and while he only played about half of the snaps, he still ended with six catches for 30 yards and one touchdown. Rob Gronkowski ended with six receptions for 61 yards making it only one touchdown in the last four games. Other than the win over the Bills, Gronkowski has not exceeded 75 yards in a game and has been disappointing to every fantasy owner who spent dearly to draft him.

No matter that Hernandez is back, Wes Welker was still the primary receiver last week in Seattle where he posted 10 catches for 138 yards and one touchdown. That makes four games in a row with 8+ catches for 100+ yards. Pure vintage Welker that apparently is not going to change. Brandon Lloyd bruised his shoulder last week but is expected to play depending on practices. He'll be covered mostly by Antonio Cromartie and may have a lesser game for it. Lloyd only scored once this year and has been only marginal with weekly yardage anyway.

Pats at home after a stinging loss and the Jets show up perhaps as weak as they have been in years. The Pats are never good about showing mercy and all fantasy plays here are attractive other than Lloyd if he remains injured.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 6 4 9 1 3 12
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 2 20 22 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE HOU 0000032030 ***
In his last two meetings with Houston, Brady has not been at his best. He has only four TD passes to two interceptions, averaging 21 fantasy points along the way. This year's Texans rate as fantasy's third harshest matchup, so far. Gronk and Danny Amendola look likely to return in Week 3, as well.

Update: Gronk, Amendola and Chris Hogan are all questionable and technically game-time calls. Brady should be fine even if one of the trio sits. Valuable Texans cornerback Kevin Johnson has been ruled out.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Gillislee, NE HOU 701000000 ***
Running backs have gone for 205 yards and a TD on 56 carries, adding nine catches for 59 yards and a TD facing Houston during this fledgling season. Gillislee has proven to be a good bet for a score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James White, NE HOU 1005400000 ***
White is a PPR factor, especially if Gronk and Danny Amendola are limited. The Texans have surrendered just 59 yards on nine catches, one of which scored, to RBs in two contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandin Cooks, NE HOU 0071101000 ***
The Texans haven't given up a touchdown to receivers in 2017, albeit against two hapless aerial attacks. Cooks should be ready for a huge fantasy showing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Hogan, NE HOU 004601000 ***
Hogan came up lame last week but is expected to play in Week 3. Houston has surrendered 18 catches for 230 yards and no scores to tight ends in 2017 to rate as the fifth worst matchup.

Update: Hogan (knee) is listed as questionable after being limited as late as Friday. Look for him to play, although checking the inactives is advised.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Danny Amendola, NE HOU 005500000 **
Amendola practiced Wednesday and looks likely to play in Week 3. He's a high-risk, high-reward type in PPR leagues. Houston hasn't allowed a WR touchdown yet.

Update: Amendola says he is ready to play, so the Pats naturally list him as a limited participant Friday and questionable, which usually translates to being a game-time call. Expect him to dress, but check the inactives to be safe.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Phillip Dorsett, NE HOU 002200000 *
Dorsett is probably a game-time decision this week with a sore ankle. Either way, his fantasy value is about zilch.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE HOU 005501000 **
Gronk seemed optimistic about playing, but this is the Patriots, so who knows how it will turn out. Check back later in the week.

Update: Limited practice, questionable = game-time decision ... Gronk should play but may be on a snap count.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE HOU 0055 ***
Only Minnesota has allowed more field goal tries through two weeks. Gostkowski is a lineup lock as far as kickers go.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

a d v e r t i s e m e n t