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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: NYJ 10, NE 34 (Line: NE by 10.5)

Players Updated: Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Bolden

Players to Watch: Jonathan Grimes, Stevan Ridley

The Patriots Jets come off a huge win over the Colts while the Jets Patriots lost to the Seahawks. There is a four-way tie at 3-3 for the AFC East and this game starts to help sort that out. The Pats are 1-1 at home and the Jets are 1-1 on the road. But after losing in Seattle. the visiting Jets should be exactly what the Patriots need right now.

The Patriots swept the Jets in 2011, winning 30-21 at home and later 37-16 in New York.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE ----- 16 SD -----
8 MIA ----- 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Bilal Powell
WR Andre Roberts 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Jets got to pretend that everything was okay when they dismantled the visiting Colts last week in a romp that was without any precedent. At least not with the Jets on the winning side. It may give the offense some confidence and satisfy the New York media for a week but all the same problems still exist and that's going to be apparent playing in New England against a Patriots team coming off an upset loss in Seattle.

Mark Sanchez only threw 18 passes against the Colts for 82 yards and two touchdowns. It was a week where it all worked so well that Sanchez had little to do other than handoff for most of the game. But this is the same quarterback who only threw for three scores over the previous four games and with yardage that normally remains south of 200 yards. Thanks to the loss of Santonio Holmes, that is not likely to change soon.

Shonn Greene set career marks across the board when he ran 32 times for 161 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts. The same Colts who came in with a defense missing players including LB Robert Mathis. Then they lost DE Corey Redding at the start of the game and DE Dwight Freeney played injured. It was a nice set-up for the same back that only gained 103 yards and no scores over the previous four games combined. This allowed HC Rex Ryan to praise his back for the great game despite all the qualifications he forgot to mention. This was also a game where Joe McKnight gained 71 yards on three carries.

Notable here is that McKnight suffered a high ankle sprain and is out. Bilal Powell suffered a dislocated shoulder and is out. That leaves just Shonn Greene and Jonathan Grimes who they signed off the Texans practice squad a few weeks ago. That might have makes Grimes an interesting one to watch but we may not see him much. And the reality is that the next two weeks are against the Pats and Dolphins who both sport good rushing defenses.

Dustin Keller is back from the hamstring injury that forced him to miss the last five weeks but only had one catch for six yardage so he picked up right where he left off in week one. But the receivers remain in a bad shape with the loss of Santonio Holmes. Last week Jason Hill scored on his only catch in the game and Stephen Hill turned in the other touchdown with only 23 yards in the game. Jeremy Kerley remains the primary wideout here, such as it exists.

The Patriots have not allowed any runner to gain more than 41 yards in New England and the only touchdown scored by a back was Ray Rice in Baltimore. This is not likely to be a place to see Greene replicate anything from last week. The Pats would play them tough anyway and will take no mercy on their divisional opponent.

House of cards - no rushing means the passing game will be challenged to produce much even though the Patriots have allowed three or more passing touchdowns to each of their last four opponents. If Sanchez gets more than one it will be a huge success.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 29 27 22 29 27 5
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 31 11 29 30 5 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ IND 0000020011 ***
After Tom Brady dropped bombs on the Colts in Week 5 and Darnold did the same vs. Denver, gamers may feel tempted to play the rookie in unique situations. It is ill-advised. Keep in mind, he completed only 10-for-22 passing and finished with fewer than 200 yards for the fourth time in five games. Look elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ IND 4004401000 ***
Powell nearly rattled off 100 yards as a change-up to Isaiah Crowell. This is a better PPR matchup than standard, giving up the second-most receptions and fifth-highest yardage average at a weekly rate. Running backs have amassed 153 offensive yards an outing vs. this group. Powell has flex worth.

Update: Isaiah Crowell missed Wednesday and Thursday and returned Friday for a limited session. He's a game-time call and seems likely to play, but Powell could be more involved.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ IND 6012100000 ***
Crowell didn't practice Wednesday with an ankle injury. The Colts have allowed 87 rushing yards (15th) a game, permitting one in 37.7 ground carries (20th). The matchup is hardly enticing, but there is no way gamers can get away from him if he's active. Check back for an update.

Update: Crowell missed Wednesday and Thursday and returned Friday for a limited session. He's a game-time call and seems likely to play, but Bilal Powell could be more involved.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ IND 004600000 ***
Where did that come from?! Anderson, whose fantasy success had practically vanished with Sam Darnold under center, exploded for two TDs on just three catches, adding 123 yards -- more than his previous four games combined. Even after the big game, Anderson remains a risky play. The Colts gave up purely midrange stats to the position over the first five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ IND 005500000 ***
Enunwa posted a goose egg in Week 5 on his five targets. Robbie Anderson saw more love, and the Jets' ground game was flammable. Indianapolis has been mostly average across the board vs. receivers, having allowed averages of 13.8 receptions (16th), 158 yards (24th) and a TD every 11.5 grabs (18th).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, NYJ IND 3322 ***
No writeup available

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN 34-13 10 BUF -----
2 ARI 18-20 11 IND -----
3 @BAL 30-31 12 @NYJ -----
4 @BUF 52-28 13 @MIA -----
5 DEN 31-21 14 HOU -----
6 @SEA 23-24 15 SF -----
7 NYJ ----- 16 @JAC -----
8 @STL ----- 17 MIA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NE vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 290,2
WR Josh Gordon 4-80,1
TE Dwayne Allen 2-20
TE Rob Gronkowski 5-60,1
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: It was all going so well in Seattle when the Pats led the Seahawks 23-10 midway through the fourth quarter. And then the Patriots offense went cold and the Seahawks threw two touchdowns including a 46-yard score with only 1:27 left to play. The loss leaves the Patriots 3-3 on the season and still wondering what is happening this season? The reality is that they have problems facing great defenses. Fortunately, that no longer applies to the Jets.

Tom Brady threw a career high 58 passes in the Seattle loss and it gave him his fourth 300+ yard game of the year. He has scored in each week at least once and faces a Jets defense that has been worse both on the pass and run. The only time that Brady has failed to throw for healthy yardage was against the Broncos when they ran 50 times. There will be more rushing this week but Brady gets to face a Jets defense that is banged up and easier to exploit.

Last week the Seahawks shut down the rushing effort but Steven Ridley was coming off two straight games with at least 100 rushing yards and a score. Ridley has three big games to his credit this year and each happened against a weak run defense. Brandon Bolden is the next in line when facing a weak defense that allows more rushing attempts but Danny Woodhead and even Shane Vereen can figure in. But this remains mostly about Ridley and he is the only reliable starter from the bunch.

Aaron Hernandez returned from his ankle sprain after missing three games and while he only played about half of the snaps, he still ended with six catches for 30 yards and one touchdown. Rob Gronkowski ended with six receptions for 61 yards making it only one touchdown in the last four games. Other than the win over the Bills, Gronkowski has not exceeded 75 yards in a game and has been disappointing to every fantasy owner who spent dearly to draft him.

No matter that Hernandez is back, Wes Welker was still the primary receiver last week in Seattle where he posted 10 catches for 138 yards and one touchdown. That makes four games in a row with 8+ catches for 100+ yards. Pure vintage Welker that apparently is not going to change. Brandon Lloyd bruised his shoulder last week but is expected to play depending on practices. He'll be covered mostly by Antonio Cromartie and may have a lesser game for it. Lloyd only scored once this year and has been only marginal with weekly yardage anyway.

Pats at home after a stinging loss and the Jets show up perhaps as weak as they have been in years. The Pats are never good about showing mercy and all fantasy plays here are attractive other than Lloyd if he remains injured.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 6 4 9 1 3 12
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 2 20 22 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE KC 0000040030 ***
Only Tampa Bay has yielded more yards on a weekly rate than the 360.4 by the Chiefs. KC has given up a TD every 16.3 completions, which is only 21st in terms of ease. Two rushing TDs against helps inflate the matchup ever so slightly. Brady was held without a TD in the Week 1 game last year, when KC surprisingly shellacked the Pats in New England, where this game will be played. Brady has thrown an uncharacteristically high six interceptions so far. Luckily, the fantasy points have been strong the past two games. He's a must-start in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Sony Michel, NE KC 9011100000 ***
This is a big-play matchup in the making. KC has given up the sixth-fewest rushing attempts per game but the 10th-most yards and a touchdown every 22.3 carries, which ranks sixth-easiest to exploit. Michel faces the second-best opponent in both of the primary scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James White, NE KC 1007601000 ***
White faces what is the best matchup for receiving yards and the third-most receptions a game, with three of the 39 catches by running backs finding the end zone. This is the second-best matchup in PPR, and he is a must-start in any league that is rewarding catches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julian Edelman, NE KC 008900000 ***
Edelman should improve after having a game to shake off the rust. The Chiefs are a fine matchup for his skills. This defense has allowed the seventh-most catches for the 10th-highest yardage figure on a weekly basis. The KC defense has allowed five TDs to the position at an inefficient clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, NE KC 002301000 ***
Patterson's projected touchdown easily could end up in the hands of Josh Gordon or Chris Hogan, so tread cautiously. The Chiefs have actually done a pretty decent job of limiting touchdowns by wideouts, or at least making it harder on the position. This projection could go either way, but he has been more productive of late.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Gordon, NE KC 003500000 ***
It's unlikely volume ever will be a big part of his role with the Patriots. Scoring is where he will make his money and pay dividends for fantasy owners. The Chiefs have limited scoring ease despite giving up one per game. The average is a touchdown every 15 catches by the position, which ranks ninth-hardest to exploit. Nevertheless, KC boasts anything but an impenetrable defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Hogan, NE KC 003400000 ***
Hogan has limited value and is no better than a flier in any fantasy format, despite the appealing matchup. Unless you feel this will turn into a shootout and force Brady to sling it 50 times, Hogan should remain in reserve.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE KC 0071201000 ***
Gronk showed signs of life last week after a few sub-par showings. In 2017's Week 1 game, he was held to only 33 yards on two catches over six targets vs. the Chiefs. The KC defense has been a tale of "bend but don't break" facing the position in 2018, allowing the fourth-most receptions (6.6) for the second-highest yardage (90.6) on a weekly basis. Only one of those 33 total catches was worth six points.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE KC 2244 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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