FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: SEA 10, SF 23 (Line: SF by 8)

Players to Watch: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson

The battle of the NFC West (not counting Arizona). Both teams are 4-2 but the Seahawks are only 1-2 away from Seattle and have yet to score more than one touchdown and 16 total points in a road game. The 49ers come off a humbling loss to the Giants and will be primed to redeem themselves.

The 49ers swept the Seahawks last year, winning 33-17 at home and later 19-17 in Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF ----- 16 SF -----
8 @DET ----- 17 STL -----
9 MIN ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 10 170,1
WR Doug Baldwin 2-30
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks are perfecting the close win with seven points being the only thing separating them from a 1-5 record. Taking down the visiting Patriots reversed the three game trend of not scoring more than 16 points in a game and that needed 14 points scored in the final half of the fourth quarter. No arguing that the Seattle defense is keeping them in every game and the offense has been just good enough more often than not.

Russell Wilson comes off a career best game of 293 yards with three touchdowns against the Pats. Wilson only threw five scores over the previous five games so it was highly out of character and something that happened in the late fourth quarter when the Patriots apparently let up just a little too much. More germane to this week - Russell has been reliable for nothing more than one score and 150 or so passing yards per week.

Marshawn Lynch is not enjoying as productive season as he did in 2011 when he was scoring every week. His yardage has been solid with 85+ rushing yards in all but the recent game against the Patriots. But he has no role as a receiver and scored only twice so far. Robert Turbin shows up for only four or five carries per game and is no touchdown hawk. Lynch runs 20 carries or more in every game but one and yet has been rarely more than a moderate fantasy play.

The Seahawks still have little use for the tight ends other than blocking and have thrown just one touchdown to the position.

Last week made the wideouts seem very productive with Sidney Rice (3-81), Doug Baldwin (2-74) and Braylon Edwards (2-21) all catching one touchdown each. But their yardage was just the product of one long catch if even that. Rice scored for the first time since the season opener and has only two efforts that went over 45 yards this season. Baldwin scored for the first time and had never gained more than 37 yards in a game. Braylon Edwards has been a nonfactor.

Playing in San Francisco is unlikely to replicate anything from the home game against the Patriots. The 49ers have only allowed six passing touchdowns all year and just one runner has scored on them. This is a likely the worst match-up of the year for the Seahawks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 28 23 27 25 20 24
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 5 1 7 11 6 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @DAL 30000030031 ***
Wilson was rendered impotent at home in Week 14 and failed to throw more than one TD for the first time in nine straight games. He travels to Dallas against a feisty young secondary. The Cowboys have allowed two TDs a game, or once every 11.9 completions (11th). The position has averaged 250.4 yards (15th) since Week 10.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Davis, SEA @DAL 6002200000 ***
This matchup is far better suited for aerial threats out of the backfield. Davis faces a Dallas team that has allowed only a pair of ground scores over the last five games (116 carries).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB J.D. McKissic, SEA @DAL 2005300000 ***
McKissic has a hint of appeal in deep DFS contests. The Cowboys have allowed RBs to average seven catches for 59.4 yards a game, figures both falling inside of the top five for their respective categories.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @DAL 0071101000 ***
Dallas has given up touchdowns at the second-highest rate, once every 7.5 catches. The matchup ranks in the top six for both scoring formats, and Baldwin should be a fine play after last week's offensive letdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @DAL 002301000 ***
Lockett has a decent enough matchup -- top six in both scoring formats -- but remains a role player. He is safer to bench than chance starting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, SEA @DAL 002300000 ***
Brown has a good matchup but too minute of a role with five catches spread over his last four games.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL -----
2 DET 27-19 11 CHI -----
3 @MIN 13-24 12 @NO -----
4 @NYJ 34-0 13 @STL -----
5 BUF 45-3 14 MIA -----
6 NYG 3-26 15 @NE -----
7 SEA ----- 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI ----- 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Pierre Garcon
PK Robbie Gould 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The 49ers just experienced both extremes. They demolished the Bills 45-3 in a game where everything worked and then lost 3-26 to the Giants when nothing went right and it was like a combination bitch slap by the Giants and Destiny. Loss aside, this is the week that the 49ers want to win along with the next game in Arizona. Take those two down and they'll reach the week 9 bye with a clear title to the NFC West.

Alex Smith toasted the Bills for 303 yards and three scores but last week versus the Giants he was back to 200 yards and no scores. Smith has only thrown one touchdown in the last four weeks other than the Bills fluke. He's not only just a game manager, the loss to the Giants was further proof that Smith is not going to be more than a caretaker. He has no ability to lead the team back from a deficit despite having greatly improved weapons this year.

And the 49ers are using Colin Kaepernick more in what is becoming a timeshare situation. Kaepernick is a much better runner with two touchdowns already and has a much bigger arm for the deep throws. Last week he passed for 82 yards on four completions. That makes Smith even less attractive for any fantasy start and if it is not a shift in the making towards changing starters, it is at least breaking down the position into a committee of sorts.

Frank Gore was on a nice streak this year with four touchdowns and solid rushing stats other than in Minnesota during the trap game. He scored four times over the first five games but was held to just 36 yards on eight runs during the debacle last week. Gore shares little and always take his off the top.

After starting the season with four scores in three weeks, Vernon Davis has been less prolific. Week five saw him post 106 yards on five catches against the Bills but he did not score and sandwiched that game with only 28 yards against the Jets and 37 yards versus the Giants. Perhaps it was just a New York thing. Davis is still a safe start every week but not above the odd bad game because he still only gets seven targets per week tops.

Last week finally saw the 49ers realize that Randy Moss was on the roster when he turned in 75 yards on just two catches but it was an odd game in many ways. Mario Manningham had a season best 72 yards on five catches and his ten targets were double his previous best. He was going against his old team and it showed. Michael Crabtree has occasionally flirted with fantasy relevance but was held to just 26 yards and that wasn't even his season worst. He too apparently does not like New York teams.

This week the 49ers are at home on a Thursday night game. They need to prove to themselves and the league that they still are one of the top teams in the NFC despite the stumble against the Giants. This game is not likely to be high scoring but the 49ers should persevere if only thanks to the venue.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 13 14 20 9 13 23
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 2 3 9 19 12 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF JAC 0000024012 ***
Compared to how well they played most of the year, the Jags have been slightly shaky vs. QBs of late. Since Week 10, this unit still has more interceptions than TDs allowed, and the 198.7 yards allowed is the fourth-lowest figure. Quarterbacks have thrown a TD strike every 11 completions, which is the seventh-softest clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jerick McKinnon, SF JAC 4005300000 ***
McKinnon's best fantasy day of the season came against the Packers in Week 6; Latavius Murray wasn't a factor in that game. The Packers have provided the 12th-most rushing yards, most receptions, and second-most receiving yards per contest to RBs in the last five weeks. This is the No. 2 matchup in PPR and slides to 13th in standard.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marquise Goodwin, SF JAC 003400000 ***
Goodwin and Jimmy Garoppolo have been on the same page, and fantasy gamers have reaped the rewards. The Jaguars have given up six touchdowns in the last five games, which has been uncharacteristic of them in 2017. Three of those scores, however, came in the Week 14 game vs. Seattle. Every team is entitled to a bad game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Trent Taylor, SF JAC 003300000 ***
The rookie is a glorified position receiver and works well out of the slot. PPR gamers may catch a break of Jacksonville affords him short receptions. Counting on him is asking a bit much, though, and he's best left for the bench in championship games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendrick Bourne, SF JAC 002300000 ***
Bourne should remain as far away from a roster as possible.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Garrett Celek, SF JAC 003300000 *
In three of his last five games, Celek has at least 63 yards and a touchdown. He also has two games that combine for 37 yards on four catches. Life has improved with Jimmy Garoppolo under center in this offense. This should be one of those down weeks as the Jaguars have been lethal vs. the position, giving up one TE score in the last five games.

Update: Celek is questionable and wasn't able to practice in full all week. He's a gameday call.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Robbie Gould, SF JAC 3311 ***
Gould is on a three-game tear and has 38 fantasy points in this span. He is enjoying his finest season of his career, but the 49ers face a Jacksonville team giving up just 1.4 field goals per outing since Week 10.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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