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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: WAS 24, NYG 30 (Line: NYG by 6.5)

Players Updated: Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Pierre Garçon, Andre Brown

Players to Watch: Victor Cruz, Robert Griffin III

The 4-2 Giants have a one game lead over the NFC East and are 2-1 on the road. The 3-3 Redskins come off a big win over the Vikings but have yet to win two games in a row and are 2-1 in road games. Surprisingly, the Redskins swept the Giants (who would win the Superbowl no less) last year 28-14 at home and 23-10 in New York. But the G-men won the six previous games.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS @ NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 80,1 200,1
RB Alfred Morris 80,1
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Leonard Hankerson 2-30
WR Santana Moss 2-40
WR Andre Roberts 4-50
PK Kai Forbath 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are .500 but have gone through the easier portion of their schedule and the next two games are in New York and then in Pittsburgh before reaching their bye. This is the first time this season that they will face a divisional opponent thanks to a schedule that jammed five of the six meetings into the final seven weeks. This week is critical but the reality is that the Skins can have no idea how they stack up in their own division yet and will control their fate the most with those final seven games.

Robert Griffin III was shut down in Atlanta when he was knocked from the game but came roaring back last week with 182 passing yards and one score that was dwarfed by what he did as a runner. Griffin rushed for 138 yards and two scores on just 13 runs thanks in no small part to an 80-yard scoring run that put the game away with under three minutes left to play. He has truly become the next Cam Newton in the sense he has rushed in six touchdowns and yet only thrown for six as well. Aside from being knocked out of the Atlanta game, he has scored as a runner in each of the last four games.

Alfred Morris is not only the primary back but he shares very little if at all each week. He is losing some work to the legs of Robert Griffin but still has scored five times this year himself and until last week was gaining 80+ yards per game. He has almost no role as a receiver but gets pretty much every rushing attempt for the Redskins.

Fred Davis has an important role in the game plan and has been the lead target more than once but he has not scored this year and normally settles for around 50 yards on this offense that seems to throw less each week and run more. He is still marginally a more consistent player than any wideout.

Pierre Garcon was unable to play last week with inflammation in his foot before the game and while HC Mike Shanahan claims it is not turf toe, it might as well be. Garcon opened the year with a big 109 yard game against the Saints but since has never posted more than 24 yards in any game if he has even been able to play. I am holding him out of the projections this week.

There are no wideouts here of any fantasy relevance and though four scores have been thrown to the position, they are completely random. Most wideouts remain under 50 yards in games and the recent success running the ball only means worst times ahead.

The Giants feature a good defense that was roughed up in the first two weeks but has since been far better including crushing the 49ers last week. Their biggest weakness has been against the run and that will be exactly where the Skins will be attacking if only to keep Manning off the field.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 17 21 21 16 2
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 14 13 22 6 10 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colt McCoy, WAS @NYG 0000025021 ***
Update: McCoy and his bad back get the start over RG3 this week. That may be a mild upgrade for the Washington receivers but don't get overly giddy about McCoy: the Giants have allowed only one of the last five quarterbacks he's faced to throw for more than one TD or 206 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS @NYG 7003300000 ***
Alf banged out 90 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in the earlier meeting with the Giants. While a touchdown isn't out of the question, it'll be a tougher get against a defense that's allowed only Marshawn Lynch to score on them since their Week 8 bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @NYG 006701000 **
Sans DeSean Jackson, Garcon vaulted back into the collective consciousness of the Washington passing game with 11 targets, nine grabs, and 95 yards. The Giants aren't shutting down anyone via the air, so Garcon has upside and a fantasy-friendly matchup; nice combo.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS @NYG 004400000 ***
Roberts went from offseason starter to third wheel, but with DeSean Jackson hurt he's climbing back up the depth chart. Of course, he's still behind Pierre Garcon and the tight ends so no need to rush out and plug him into your lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @NYG 003400000 *
Jackson's injury status has him iffy for this tilt; double-check the pregame inactives before making a final move with DJax.
Update: DJax practiced on a limited basis all week and is listed as questionable, so you're still on pregame watch if you're hoping to use him against the Giants.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS @NYG 005601000 **
Redskins tight ends combined for 88 yards in the earlier meeting with the Giants, a game in which Reed didn't even see the field. He's been a more active participant in the offense of late, and the expectation is he'll claim most if not all of that yardage here in the rematch.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS @NYG 2222 ***
Only one of Forbath's top five most productive games this season came with RG3 at the helm; the last time he faced the Giants, he only mustered two points. No reason to think he gets a boost this week.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS ----- 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL ----- 17 PHI -----
9 PIT ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 330,3
RB Chris Ogbonnaya 4-20
WR Victor Cruz 10-140,2
WR Kevin Ogletree 2-20

Pregame Notes: The reigning Superbowl champs were looking weak when they were 2-2 coming off a loss to the Eagles. But after bombing the Browns and then crushing the 49ers, the Giants are looking like a team coming back together. The offense is finding a rhythm and the defense has come together after giving up 58 points over the first two games. The Giants schedule is tough with this game, then in Dallas and hosting the Steelers. Already down one loss in the division, the Giants cannot afford another and this will likely be the easiest divisional game left to play.

Eli Manning scored in every game this year and while he only needed to throw for 193 yards and one score in the 49ers rout, he has been good for multiple touchdowns in most games along with solid yardage as high as the 510 he posted on the Buccaneers. If there was ever a week you want to start Manning, this is it. The Skins have never allowed fewer than 299 passing yards in any game this year and that was facing STL, CIN, TB and MIN.

Ahmad Bradshaw has pushed Andre Brown completely out of the picture and taken over almost the entire workload for the backfield. He ran for 200 yards on 30 carries against the Browns and then ran 27 times for 116 yards against the normally stout 49er defense. He scored in each game which makes the primary back for the Giants having a touchdown in five of the six games played.

Hakeem Nicks was back after missing three games but was still bothered by his knee and only produced 44 yards on three receptions in San Francisco. He admitted after the game that his knee was still an issue and it will take time for him to reach 100%. Domenik Hixon (4-78) helped out but has lost fantasy value with Nicks back in the picture. Victor Cruz has been the best part of the offense with six touchdowns on the season while on a hot streak for the last three games. As the Giants continue to look better, it is Cruz who shows up the most. Five of his touchdowns came in the last three games.

Martellus Bennett was apparently yet another tight end with early season success but then slips back into obscurity (See "Dennis Pitta! Star Tight End!"). Bennett has not scored since week three and has twice turned in just one catch for a game.

The Skins defense against the pass is horrible. Delightfully so. Every team throws for 300 yards. Every team! All but one had multiple touchdown passes allowed. The rushing defense is above average but that only prompts opponents to scorch the secondary. Manning and Cruz should end with crazy big numbers this week judging by the incoming trends for both teams.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 14 11 3 19 2 18
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 28 9 31 31 24 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG WAS 0000030031 ****
The Redskins let Eli abuse them for 300 yards and four TDs in the earlier matchup, and they ride into this tilt having allowed multiple TD efforts to Shaun Hill, Andrew Luck, and Josh McCown in the past month. Eli is averaging 281 and 2 at home, so don't sweat his last couple of stinkers; he's got your fantasy back this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashad Jennings, NYG WAS 6013200000 ***
Jennings split the backfield workload in the earlier meeting with Washington, but he's expected to see a larger share one week removed from missing game action due to injury. He's been solid all season, no reason to shy away just because of the tough matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Williams, NYG WAS 4001100000 ***
With Rashad Jennings healthy Williams returns to backup and goal line duties. There's still fantasy value to be had, but it will be harder to scratch out.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham, NYG WAS 00101302000 ****
Victor Cruz toasted the Redskins for 108 yards in the earlier meeting; he's gone, obviously, but Beckham is filling in just fine and should enjoy a Washington secondary that's allowed three 100-yard receivers in the past four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rueben Randle, NYG WAS 006800000 ***
Randle was a solid complimentary 8-89 in the first meeting with the Redskins, but his role has diminished as Odell Beckham has taken off. Not to say he can't carve out fantasy value here, but it won't be a cakewalk.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Preston Parker, NYG WAS 002200000 ***
Parker is a lightly-used third option who's a viable fantasy play in a favorable matchup. The Redskins D, however, is no pushover so don't mine too deep in the Giants' wide receiving corps.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Larry Donnell, NYG WAS 004401000 ***
Donnell tallied the hat trick with three TDs the last time these squads met. You'd like to think the Redskins have figured out how to defend the tight end, but both Coby Fleener and Jared Cook have two-TD games the past two weeks. That, of course, is good news for Donnell's fantasy prospects.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG WAS 2244 ***
Brown hasn't been bad this year, and between last week's 18 point outburst and the nine he tallied in the earlier meeting with Washington you have to like his chances of delivering a fantasy helper here.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

a d v e r t i s e m e n t