FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: WAS 24, NYG 30 (Line: NYG by 6.5)

Players Updated: Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Pierre Garçon, Andre Brown

Players to Watch: Victor Cruz, Robert Griffin III

The 4-2 Giants have a one game lead over the NFC East and are 2-1 on the road. The 3-3 Redskins come off a big win over the Vikings but have yet to win two games in a row and are 2-1 in road games. Surprisingly, the Redskins swept the Giants (who would win the Superbowl no less) last year 28-14 at home and 23-10 in New York. But the G-men won the six previous games.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Vernon Davis 5-60,1

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are .500 but have gone through the easier portion of their schedule and the next two games are in New York and then in Pittsburgh before reaching their bye. This is the first time this season that they will face a divisional opponent thanks to a schedule that jammed five of the six meetings into the final seven weeks. This week is critical but the reality is that the Skins can have no idea how they stack up in their own division yet and will control their fate the most with those final seven games.

Robert Griffin III was shut down in Atlanta when he was knocked from the game but came roaring back last week with 182 passing yards and one score that was dwarfed by what he did as a runner. Griffin rushed for 138 yards and two scores on just 13 runs thanks in no small part to an 80-yard scoring run that put the game away with under three minutes left to play. He has truly become the next Cam Newton in the sense he has rushed in six touchdowns and yet only thrown for six as well. Aside from being knocked out of the Atlanta game, he has scored as a runner in each of the last four games.

Alfred Morris is not only the primary back but he shares very little if at all each week. He is losing some work to the legs of Robert Griffin but still has scored five times this year himself and until last week was gaining 80+ yards per game. He has almost no role as a receiver but gets pretty much every rushing attempt for the Redskins.

Fred Davis has an important role in the game plan and has been the lead target more than once but he has not scored this year and normally settles for around 50 yards on this offense that seems to throw less each week and run more. He is still marginally a more consistent player than any wideout.

Pierre Garcon was unable to play last week with inflammation in his foot before the game and while HC Mike Shanahan claims it is not turf toe, it might as well be. Garcon opened the year with a big 109 yard game against the Saints but since has never posted more than 24 yards in any game if he has even been able to play. I am holding him out of the projections this week.

There are no wideouts here of any fantasy relevance and though four scores have been thrown to the position, they are completely random. Most wideouts remain under 50 yards in games and the recent success running the ball only means worst times ahead.

The Giants feature a good defense that was roughed up in the first two weeks but has since been far better including crushing the 49ers last week. Their biggest weakness has been against the run and that will be exactly where the Skins will be attacking if only to keep Manning off the field.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 17 21 21 16 2
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 14 13 22 6 10 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @NO 10100026011 ***
No team has granted fewer yards per game than New Orleans' 166.6. The defense has held quarterbacks to five TD passes in as many games, or one every 16.4 completions. Six passes have been picked on 165 attempts, and one of the 16 rushes went into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS @NO 3006501000 ***
Thompson has quieted in the last two weeks. A sign of things to come? Maybe. This week, the Saints provide a low-end matchup -- the fifth-hardest in PPR, in fact. Since Week 5, none of the 26 receptions found the end zone, which is discouraging.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Samaje Perine, WAS @NO 300000000 ***
Perine has not shown a great deal of competence in his limited NFL action. This is the seventh-worst matchup in fantasy for non-PPR backs. Two of the past 96 carries went into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @NO 004500000 ***
Crowder has flashed a little in the last few weeks. The Saints, though, have done everything in their power to keep wideouts down. A touchdown has been scored once every 20 snags, which has amounted to only a pair of WR touchdowns in the last five games. This also is a terrible matchup for receptions (3rd worst) and yardage (4th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Doctson, WAS @NO 003400000 ***
The matchup is anything but ideal. New Orleans has given up only eight catches a game to wideouts in the last five contests. Since Week 5, the position has caught only two TDs. The Saints are fantasy's third-strongest defense in either scoring system.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS @NO 006700000 ***
The Saints have given up the third-fewest catches for the second-fewest yards on a weekly clip, and yet they have managed to permit a TD every 5.3 receptions (2nd). Davis will have a bigger role if Jordan Reed once again is out of action.

Update: Davis will play a larger role with Reed ruled out.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Rose, WAS @NO 2211 ***
Only six of the 10 field goal attempts against the Saints have been true, and all nine kicks were accurate. The volume is too low to consider this anything better than a midrange matchup in the most optimistic sense.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS ----- 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL ----- 17 PHI -----
9 PIT ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 330,3
WR Brandon Marshall 7-100,1

Pregame Notes: The reigning Superbowl champs were looking weak when they were 2-2 coming off a loss to the Eagles. But after bombing the Browns and then crushing the 49ers, the Giants are looking like a team coming back together. The offense is finding a rhythm and the defense has come together after giving up 58 points over the first two games. The Giants schedule is tough with this game, then in Dallas and hosting the Steelers. Already down one loss in the division, the Giants cannot afford another and this will likely be the easiest divisional game left to play.

Eli Manning scored in every game this year and while he only needed to throw for 193 yards and one score in the 49ers rout, he has been good for multiple touchdowns in most games along with solid yardage as high as the 510 he posted on the Buccaneers. If there was ever a week you want to start Manning, this is it. The Skins have never allowed fewer than 299 passing yards in any game this year and that was facing STL, CIN, TB and MIN.

Ahmad Bradshaw has pushed Andre Brown completely out of the picture and taken over almost the entire workload for the backfield. He ran for 200 yards on 30 carries against the Browns and then ran 27 times for 116 yards against the normally stout 49er defense. He scored in each game which makes the primary back for the Giants having a touchdown in five of the six games played.

Hakeem Nicks was back after missing three games but was still bothered by his knee and only produced 44 yards on three receptions in San Francisco. He admitted after the game that his knee was still an issue and it will take time for him to reach 100%. Domenik Hixon (4-78) helped out but has lost fantasy value with Nicks back in the picture. Victor Cruz has been the best part of the offense with six touchdowns on the season while on a hot streak for the last three games. As the Giants continue to look better, it is Cruz who shows up the most. Five of his touchdowns came in the last three games.

Martellus Bennett was apparently yet another tight end with early season success but then slips back into obscurity (See "Dennis Pitta! Star Tight End!"). Bennett has not scored since week three and has twice turned in just one catch for a game.

The Skins defense against the pass is horrible. Delightfully so. Every team throws for 300 yards. Every team! All but one had multiple touchdown passes allowed. The rushing defense is above average but that only prompts opponents to scorch the secondary. Manning and Cruz should end with crazy big numbers this week judging by the incoming trends for both teams.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 14 11 3 19 2 18
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 28 9 31 31 24 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG KC 0000024021 ***
KC actually stinks against quarterbacks, which could lead to a decent day for Manning. The Chiefs return from vacation for a trip to the tri-state area. This defense has yielded 279 yards through the sky (5th) and a passing score every 12.3 completions (9th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Orleans Darkwa, NYG KC 6001100000 ***
Darkwa could accrue some yardage of note against the second-softest defense in this area. KC has granted a rushing score per game, or once every 28 attempts. Gamers could do worse looking for a body this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG KC 300000000 ***
Regardless of the matchup, Gallman's role is too limited to matter in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shane Vereen, NYG KC 1003200000 ***
This is an awful matchup for Vereen. The Chiefs, coming off of a bye week, have given up only 15 catches for 90 yards and no scores in their last four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG KC 0071001000 ***
Shepard is dynamic enough to make some noise, and the Giants are likely to move him around to avoid Marcus Peters as much as realistically possible. The Chiefs have given up the most receptions per game (14.8), fourth-most yards (210) and 1.5 WR touchdowns per contest, or one every 9.8 catches (6th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tavarres King, NYG KC 002301000 **
King doesn't warrant a fantasy lineup spot in any situation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Roger Lewis, NYG KC 003300000 ***
Lewis has extremely limited appeal based on the matchup and slight chance for a score. KC has been generally poor vs. wideouts in 2017 and currently sit as the third-best matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Evan Engram, NYG KC 005600000 ***
Tight ends have averaged a pathetic 3.0 catches, 46.5 yards and a TD every fourth game against the Chiefs. Engram may work the field a little, and he has proven to be a capable weapon in the red zone, so there is at least a bit of upside.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Aldrick Rosas, NYG KC 0022 ***
Most of the damage against the Chiefs came via point-afters. KC has given up only 1.5 field goal tries and a lone make per game. With a bye week of prep, KC should have no problem corralling the little bit of offense left in New York.

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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