FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

Prediction: WAS 24, NYG 30 (Line: NYG by 6.5)

Players Updated: Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Pierre Garçon, Andre Brown

Players to Watch: Victor Cruz, Robert Griffin III

The 4-2 Giants have a one game lead over the NFC East and are 2-1 on the road. The 3-3 Redskins come off a big win over the Vikings but have yet to win two games in a row and are 2-1 in road games. Surprisingly, the Redskins swept the Giants (who would win the Superbowl no less) last year 28-14 at home and 23-10 in New York. But the G-men won the six previous games.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS @ NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 150,1
RB Adrian Peterson 100,1 5-30
WR Michael Floyd 3-30
TE Vernon Davis 5-60,1

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are .500 but have gone through the easier portion of their schedule and the next two games are in New York and then in Pittsburgh before reaching their bye. This is the first time this season that they will face a divisional opponent thanks to a schedule that jammed five of the six meetings into the final seven weeks. This week is critical but the reality is that the Skins can have no idea how they stack up in their own division yet and will control their fate the most with those final seven games.

Robert Griffin III was shut down in Atlanta when he was knocked from the game but came roaring back last week with 182 passing yards and one score that was dwarfed by what he did as a runner. Griffin rushed for 138 yards and two scores on just 13 runs thanks in no small part to an 80-yard scoring run that put the game away with under three minutes left to play. He has truly become the next Cam Newton in the sense he has rushed in six touchdowns and yet only thrown for six as well. Aside from being knocked out of the Atlanta game, he has scored as a runner in each of the last four games.

Alfred Morris is not only the primary back but he shares very little if at all each week. He is losing some work to the legs of Robert Griffin but still has scored five times this year himself and until last week was gaining 80+ yards per game. He has almost no role as a receiver but gets pretty much every rushing attempt for the Redskins.

Fred Davis has an important role in the game plan and has been the lead target more than once but he has not scored this year and normally settles for around 50 yards on this offense that seems to throw less each week and run more. He is still marginally a more consistent player than any wideout.

Pierre Garcon was unable to play last week with inflammation in his foot before the game and while HC Mike Shanahan claims it is not turf toe, it might as well be. Garcon opened the year with a big 109 yard game against the Saints but since has never posted more than 24 yards in any game if he has even been able to play. I am holding him out of the projections this week.

There are no wideouts here of any fantasy relevance and though four scores have been thrown to the position, they are completely random. Most wideouts remain under 50 yards in games and the recent success running the ball only means worst times ahead.

The Giants feature a good defense that was roughed up in the first two weeks but has since been far better including crushing the 49ers last week. Their biggest weakness has been against the run and that will be exactly where the Skins will be attacking if only to keep Manning off the field.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 17 21 21 16 2
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 14 13 22 6 10 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, WAS @TB 20000023020 ***
Yikes. No Paul Richardson. Probably no Jamison Crowder or Chris Thompson. No Trent Williams, Shawn Lauvao and Brandon Scherff. Morgan Moses should return after exiting early last week. Smith has a tough time projecting as anything better than a bench candidate despite a phenomenal matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, WAS @TB 5004201000 **
The matchup is about as good as it gets, especially for rushing touchdowns, but Peterson will need to get the job done with a decimated offensive line and a one-dimensional offense. Will he seen enough touches to matter if Washington's secondary cannot contain all that is Fitzmagic.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Maurice Harris, WAS @TB 004501000 ***
Fantasy gamers gained another weapon (sort of) when Harris posted a 10-124-0 line in Week 9. The major injuries at receiver, as well as along the offensive line, makes Harris a somewhat risky option. He'll see extra attention and may not have enough time for routes to develop. Play him with caution. The matchup couldn't be much more enticing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Doctson, WAS @TB 004500000 ***
Doctson faces a great matchup to make it two weeks in a row, and the loss of Paul Richardson and possibly Jamison Crowder makes him an understandable flier in deeper setups. Tampa Bay has yielded five TDs in the last four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS @TB 005400000 ***
Reed's scoreless streak since Week 1 continues entering this contest. He has 18 targets in the past two games, landing 11 for just 72 yards. He offers something of a moderately high floor in PPR but comes with a ceiling low enough for a toddler to smack their head on. Tampa is at least among the most favorable opponents for TEs, and the loss of Paul Richardson should help.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS @TB 2222 ***
No writeup available

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS ----- 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL ----- 17 PHI -----
9 PIT ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 330,3
RB Jonathan Stewart 30 2-20

Pregame Notes: The reigning Superbowl champs were looking weak when they were 2-2 coming off a loss to the Eagles. But after bombing the Browns and then crushing the 49ers, the Giants are looking like a team coming back together. The offense is finding a rhythm and the defense has come together after giving up 58 points over the first two games. The Giants schedule is tough with this game, then in Dallas and hosting the Steelers. Already down one loss in the division, the Giants cannot afford another and this will likely be the easiest divisional game left to play.

Eli Manning scored in every game this year and while he only needed to throw for 193 yards and one score in the 49ers rout, he has been good for multiple touchdowns in most games along with solid yardage as high as the 510 he posted on the Buccaneers. If there was ever a week you want to start Manning, this is it. The Skins have never allowed fewer than 299 passing yards in any game this year and that was facing STL, CIN, TB and MIN.

Ahmad Bradshaw has pushed Andre Brown completely out of the picture and taken over almost the entire workload for the backfield. He ran for 200 yards on 30 carries against the Browns and then ran 27 times for 116 yards against the normally stout 49er defense. He scored in each game which makes the primary back for the Giants having a touchdown in five of the six games played.

Hakeem Nicks was back after missing three games but was still bothered by his knee and only produced 44 yards on three receptions in San Francisco. He admitted after the game that his knee was still an issue and it will take time for him to reach 100%. Domenik Hixon (4-78) helped out but has lost fantasy value with Nicks back in the picture. Victor Cruz has been the best part of the offense with six touchdowns on the season while on a hot streak for the last three games. As the Giants continue to look better, it is Cruz who shows up the most. Five of his touchdowns came in the last three games.

Martellus Bennett was apparently yet another tight end with early season success but then slips back into obscurity (See "Dennis Pitta! Star Tight End!"). Bennett has not scored since week three and has twice turned in just one catch for a game.

The Skins defense against the pass is horrible. Delightfully so. Every team throws for 300 yards. Every team! All but one had multiple touchdown passes allowed. The rushing defense is above average but that only prompts opponents to scorch the secondary. Manning and Cruz should end with crazy big numbers this week judging by the incoming trends for both teams.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 14 11 3 19 2 18
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 28 9 31 31 24 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @SF 0000028011 ***
San Francisco sits in the middle of the pack over the course of teh season when it comes to slowing QBs. The last three weeks have resulted in a low rating due to the matchups. All of these passers have gone for at least 22.8 points: Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. Eli is fighting for his job and has a reasonable shot at being useful coming out of his bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG @SF 6019700000 ***
Yardage generation against the Niners hasn't come easy in the last five weeks, but the position has scored five times in as many outings. Barkley returns from his bye week to face a defense that has struggled to contain elite backs: Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt ... all of them found considerable success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham Jr, NYG @SF 0081101000 ***
Since Week 4, San Fran has limited catches against the position, ranking 10th best at slowing PPR types. The yardage has been midrange at 15th, and the goods have been delivered via touchdown passes -- six of the last 56 connections found their way into the end zone, which is the sixth-highest frequency.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG @SF 004500000 ***
In the past five games, receivers have scored six touchdowns vs. the Niners. They have come at the sixth-highest frequency, despite allowing the 10th-fewest catches. Since Week 3, Shepard's positional mates have averaged a moderate 167.2 yards per game when facing San Fran.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Evan Engram, NYG @SF 004300000 ***
None of the last 17 TE catches against the Niners made it into the end zone, and we have to go back to Week 4 to find the last one. Engram's athleticism sets him apart, yet a limited role in the offense makes him a risky start each week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Aldrick Rosas, NYG @SF 2222 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 7
2012
SEA at SF (THU) *DAL at CAR *NYJ at NE DET at CHI (MON)
*ARI at MIN *GB at STL *PIT at CIN Bye:
BAL at HOU *JAC at OAK TEN at BUF ATL, DEN, KC,
*UPDATED *CLE at IND *NO at TB *WAS at NYG MIA, PHI, SD

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