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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: ARI 13, GB 24 (Line: GB by 10)

Players Updated: Jordy Nelson

Players to Watch: John Skelton, Randall Cobb

The 5-3 Packers are on a three game winning streak and are 3-1 at home. The 4-4 Cardinals are in a free-fall with a three game losing streak with each loss by 10+ points. This could be a trap game but the Cards are 1-2 on the road and looking worse every week. These are truly two ships heading in different directions.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert 10 230,1
QB Carson Palmer 290,1
RB Chris Johnson 50 5-30
WR Larry Fitzgerald 90,1
TE Jermaine Gresham 6-60,1
PK Phil Dawson 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Talk about your water-colored memories. The Cardinals went from 4-0 looking like they figured out how to play defense and still generate enough offense to win games. Then the offense promptly fell apart in week five. The Cardinals have not only lost four in a row, but they're getting worse each week and now have to travel to Green Bay who has reversed the trend of the Cardinals by starting out inexplicably bad and now are just as good as ever.

Kevin Kolb remains out with rib and shoulder injuries while John Skelton struggles to keep the team in the game. His two starts produced over 260 yards each but only scored one touchdown and plenty of those yards came in garbage time. All the same old woes are back here - no rushing game and a passing scheme that goes by the codename LARRY FITZGERALD.

LaRod Stephens-Howling is the return man on special teams but was allowed a chance to play in Minnesota after William Powell lost a fumble. He then ran 20 times for a 104 yards and a score - even better than his previous career best of 22 yards after four years of playing. Against the 49ers, Stephens-Howling returned to earth with a more typical eight runs for six yards. William Powell covered 13 yards on four runs. The duo will continue to work together to secure the #32 ranking as the worst rushing unit in the entirety of the NFL.

Rob Housler continues to quietly gain fantasy relevance with four or even five receptions per week and up to 50 yards. He still has not score nor has any other Arizona tight end.

Larry Fitzgerald was cranking out the touchdowns and the 90+ yardage games until Kolb went down and now two weeks later he's averaged only 40 yards per game with Skelton at the helm. Andre Roberts's been the more productive one for Skelton with seven catches per week and a score in Minnesota.

This is not a good road team anyway and with Skelton as pitcher, the offense takes a noticeable step down that it cannot afford to take. Fitzgerald remains the lone fantasy play on this team now and even he is starting to fade without Kolb back.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 20 32 15 25 30 10
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 17 16 22 11 17 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Palmer, ARI @LAR 0000026021 ***
Quarterbacks have shredded LA in the last five weeks, tossing 13 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. The Rams have surrendered the third highest per-game points figure in the league during that time. Palmer shouldn't have much trouble producing ample points for gamers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB David Johnson, ARI @LAR 8015501000 ***
Johnson's sheer destruction of the NFL continues. He posted one of his quietest games of the year in Week 4 against the Rams, but he is playing on a different level at this point.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR J.J. Nelson, ARI @LAR 004501000 ***
Lightning fast, Nelson is a TD threat practically with every catch. He wasn't much of a factor in Week 4's meeting, but you could do much worse filling a flex spot. The Rams are the fourth most generous defense of wideouts this week when using data since Week 11.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @LAR 005500000 ***
Only three teams have been worse against wideouts in the past five games, so Fitz should be a strong start. The vet went for 62 yards on five catches in the Week 4 meeting, but LA was playing OK football back then.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI @LAR 002300000 *
Brown is still fighting his sickle-cell trait that weakens his legs. Avoid him in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, ARI @LAR 004400000 ***
Gresham wasn't involved in the first matchup, and he's a so-so play in PPR this time around the Rams have been sound against TEs, giving up just one score on the last 22 catches faced.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, ARI @LAR 1111 ***
Seattle provides Dawson the fourth worst matchup, on paper, entering the week. While all 12 XPAs faced in the last five weeks have been good, only four of seven three-pointers connected.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 280,3
WR Randall Cobb 5-60,1
WR Jordy Nelson 3-30
TE Martellus Bennett 4-40,1
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers are on a nice three game winning streak that is erasing all the bad from starting 2-3 and losing to the Colts. Even with many injuries, the Packers continue to win and need the week 10 bye to further rest up and heal up wounded players. With five of the six divisional matchups yet to be played, the Packers have time to catch the Bears and already have beaten them once. This is a very fortunate year to have such a late bye week.

Aaron Rodgers only passed for 186 yards when the Jaguars showed up last week but scored twice and extended his multiple-TD streak to five weeks. After a slow start for three weeks, Rodgers threw 18 touchdowns over just the last five games. He's lost Greg Jennings since week four and even missed Jordy Nelson last week. But with just the Jags showing up, the Packers mailed it in and still won by nine points.

Alex Green remains the starter while Cedric Benson is out but done little. In his three starts, Green ran 64 times for 154 yards and yet only gained 2.4 yards per carry and never scores. That was three straight games with 20+ carries and yet so little to show for it.

Jermichael Finley chugs along at two catches per week and currently ranks 17th in yardage among NFL tight ends which is made more remarkable knowing that half of the teams don't have any intention on using their tight ends as receivers.

Jordy Nelson was held out last week because of his hamstring and the lack of need for him to play. But he was almost able to play and should be back this week barring a setback or slower than expected healing. He gets a bye in week 11 anyway. Greg Jennings remains out and will be undergoing sports hernia surgery. Even with the reduced passing of last week, Randall Cobb still caught his fourth touchdown in the last four games.

The Cardinals are no pushovers, but their lack of recent success could end up depressing the Packers stats again this week since they only need a win by any margin and then get a much needed bye. The important games lie in week 11 and beyond.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 4 31 1 16 29 19
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 3 11 17 3 10 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @DET 10000028040 ***
Rodgers threw for only 205 yards in the Week 3 meeting, but four of his 15 completions found the end zone for a cool 28.5 fantasy points. Last year, at Detroit, he tossed a pair of TDs, ran for one, and threw for 273 yards with an interception. The Lions have yielded only six passing TDs in their last five games, or one every 19.5 completions. The secondary is an injury-riddled mess, however, so Rodgers should have a field day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ty Montgomery, GB @DET 5004300000 ***
Montgomery takes on a Lions defense that cannot possibly account for all of the weapons in Green Bay's offense. This defense give up two scores last week to Zeke Elliott and is battered with injuries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @DET 0071002000 ***
Nelson should have no problem finding room to roam against the Lions' banged up secondary. Detroit has surrendered five TDs to the position in the last two games, and Nelson scored two of his own in the Week 3 contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @DET 004501000 ***
Adams caught 2-23-1 in the Week 3 meeting, but he has exploded since that game. The Packers travel to Detroit this time, and the Lions have allowed five receiver TDs in the last two games alone. This secondary is ravaged with injuries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Lance Kendricks, GB @DET 004400000 ***
Arizona has been stout against the position all year, and Kendricks is too hit or miss to be trusted.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, GB @DET 003400000 ***
Miami is the second softest opponent for tight ends to exploit in Week 17. The Week 2 meeting resulted in Bennett posting five catches for 114 yards and a TD.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @DET 1144 ***
Detroit has allowed the fourth lowest weekly average of field goal chances, but all 12 extra points in the last five games have gone through. Most of them came against Dallas last week.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

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