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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: ARI 13, GB 24 (Line: GB by 10)

Players Updated: Jordy Nelson

Players to Watch: John Skelton, Randall Cobb

The 5-3 Packers are on a three game winning streak and are 3-1 at home. The 4-4 Cardinals are in a free-fall with a three game losing streak with each loss by 10+ points. This could be a trap game but the Cards are 1-2 on the road and looking worse every week. These are truly two ships heading in different directions.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 290,1
RB Chris Johnson 50 5-30
WR Larry Fitzgerald 90,1
WR Michael Floyd 2-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 6-60,1

Pregame Notes: Talk about your water-colored memories. The Cardinals went from 4-0 looking like they figured out how to play defense and still generate enough offense to win games. Then the offense promptly fell apart in week five. The Cardinals have not only lost four in a row, but they're getting worse each week and now have to travel to Green Bay who has reversed the trend of the Cardinals by starting out inexplicably bad and now are just as good as ever.

Kevin Kolb remains out with rib and shoulder injuries while John Skelton struggles to keep the team in the game. His two starts produced over 260 yards each but only scored one touchdown and plenty of those yards came in garbage time. All the same old woes are back here - no rushing game and a passing scheme that goes by the codename LARRY FITZGERALD.

LaRod Stephens-Howling is the return man on special teams but was allowed a chance to play in Minnesota after William Powell lost a fumble. He then ran 20 times for a 104 yards and a score - even better than his previous career best of 22 yards after four years of playing. Against the 49ers, Stephens-Howling returned to earth with a more typical eight runs for six yards. William Powell covered 13 yards on four runs. The duo will continue to work together to secure the #32 ranking as the worst rushing unit in the entirety of the NFL.

Rob Housler continues to quietly gain fantasy relevance with four or even five receptions per week and up to 50 yards. He still has not score nor has any other Arizona tight end.

Larry Fitzgerald was cranking out the touchdowns and the 90+ yardage games until Kolb went down and now two weeks later he's averaged only 40 yards per game with Skelton at the helm. Andre Roberts's been the more productive one for Skelton with seven catches per week and a score in Minnesota.

This is not a good road team anyway and with Skelton as pitcher, the offense takes a noticeable step down that it cannot afford to take. Fitzgerald remains the lone fantasy play on this team now and even he is starting to fade without Kolb back.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 20 32 15 25 30 10
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 17 16 22 11 17 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Palmer, ARI @BUF 0000030020 ***
Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a lot of yards (374) but only one touchdown. There is no reason Palmer cannot push for 300 yards and three TD passes, but Buffalo will play better overall defense than last week. You don't get that embarrassed, fire your OC (logical, right?) and not play better on D. Only 13 teams have been stronger vs. fantasy quarterbacks so far this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB David Johnson, ARI @BUF 6014500000 ***
Matt Forte scored thrice against this defense in Week 2, and Johnson (a similar back) has all the upside in the world as he takes a crack at the Bills. As usual, start him with confidence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @BUF 007801000 ***
Never sit your studs. Fitz is the primary option in the passing game and has a refined level of chemistry with Carson Palmer. The Bills are the second best matchup for PPR wideouts, if you needed more convincing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Floyd, ARI @BUF 005801000 ***
Buffalo has given up an AVERAGE of 49.9 fantasy points per game to the position through two weeks. Denver, Seattle and Carolina have not given up more than 47 TOTAL points in that time. Floyd is usually the second or third read most plays and has the ability to get loose for a big play at any time. WR3 for safety, WR1 upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI @BUF 002300000 ***
Brown hasn't enjoyed much success yet in 2016, and he'll be the benefit of matchups that stifle Larry Fitzgerald. This won't be one of them. Buffalo allowed two 100-yard receivers last week (and nearly a third).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI @BUF 2233 ***
Kickers have been a perfect 5-for-5 from both XPA and FGA ranges, making this the fifth easiest matchup.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 280,3
WR Randall Cobb 5-60,1
WR Jordy Nelson 3-30
TE Jared Cook 4-50
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers are on a nice three game winning streak that is erasing all the bad from starting 2-3 and losing to the Colts. Even with many injuries, the Packers continue to win and need the week 10 bye to further rest up and heal up wounded players. With five of the six divisional matchups yet to be played, the Packers have time to catch the Bears and already have beaten them once. This is a very fortunate year to have such a late bye week.

Aaron Rodgers only passed for 186 yards when the Jaguars showed up last week but scored twice and extended his multiple-TD streak to five weeks. After a slow start for three weeks, Rodgers threw 18 touchdowns over just the last five games. He's lost Greg Jennings since week four and even missed Jordy Nelson last week. But with just the Jags showing up, the Packers mailed it in and still won by nine points.

Alex Green remains the starter while Cedric Benson is out but done little. In his three starts, Green ran 64 times for 154 yards and yet only gained 2.4 yards per carry and never scores. That was three straight games with 20+ carries and yet so little to show for it.

Jermichael Finley chugs along at two catches per week and currently ranks 17th in yardage among NFL tight ends which is made more remarkable knowing that half of the teams don't have any intention on using their tight ends as receivers.

Jordy Nelson was held out last week because of his hamstring and the lack of need for him to play. But he was almost able to play and should be back this week barring a setback or slower than expected healing. He gets a bye in week 11 anyway. Greg Jennings remains out and will be undergoing sports hernia surgery. Even with the reduced passing of last week, Randall Cobb still caught his fourth touchdown in the last four games.

The Cardinals are no pushovers, but their lack of recent success could end up depressing the Packers stats again this week since they only need a win by any margin and then get a much needed bye. The important games lie in week 11 and beyond.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 4 31 1 16 29 19
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 3 11 17 3 10 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB DET 20000027030 ***
Rodgers averaged 303 yards, 2 TDs and 0.5 INTs vs. DET in 2015 without a full complement of weapons. In 2014, he throw a total of 388 yards and 3 TDs in two games, without a pick. He's much better in real life than on the fake gridiron against this defense. Detroit's defense has allowed six TDs to just one interception and may roll over again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB DET 600000000 ***
Nearly half the league is stronger than Detroit against running backs, and the Lions are one of three teams to prevent both a rushing and receiving touchdown to the position. Much of that is because Detroit give up so many plays to tight ends around the goal. Game flow and field position are extremely important to Lacy's odds of finding the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB DET 006601000 ***
Detroit gave up a 6-64-1 line to Donte Moncrief and a 6-79-0 line to T.Y. Hilton in the opener. Tennessee didn't offer a matchup like Nelson. You always start your studs, and it doesn't hurt that he is in game shape right out of the gates.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB DET 003501000 ***
Adams sees a lot of his looks when defenses blanket Jordy Nelson and/or Randall Cobb. He remains on the field, though, since Green Bay uses three-wide sets regularly. The Lions have been respectable by holding receivers to the 12th fewest points through two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB DET 006800000 ***
Cobb's play against Detroit has been a mixed bag. He scored twice in Week 17 of the 2014 season but failed to score in his next two meetings with them. His production this year doesn't compel fantasy owners to take a chance, so it is understandable if sit him against the 12th strongest defense (PPR) of wideouts if you have a safer choice. PPR gamers pretty much have to keep him in their lineups, though, and take the mediocre with the good.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, GB DET 005501000 ****
No team has been victimized more than Detroit by tight ends. This unit has ceded four touchdowns on just 15 catches. Cook makes for a sneaky play in daily and a borderline starter in traditional games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB DET 1133 ***
Detroit is giving up only 6.5 fantasy points per outing. Crosby is playable but likely won't excel.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

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