FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: BUF 17, HOU 30 (Line: HOU by 10)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster vs. #32 Defense against RBs

Players Updated: Ben Tate

The 3-4 Bills arrive with a 2-2 road record but were waxed 3-45 by the 49ers the last time they faced a good defense on the road. The 6-1 Texans are coming off their bye week with likely the softest matchup of the year.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA -----
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 4-20
PK Stephen Hauschka 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The important thing to remember for this game is that the Bills are no better than the defense is good or bad. Meaning at home against soft defenses like Kansas City or Tennessee, the Bills slap up 34+ points on the score board. On the road versus a great defense and they only managed three points against the 49ers. Playing in Houston is going to be much more like playing in San Francisco than hosting the Titans or Chiefs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 15 touchdowns so far with nine interceptions but his last two road games produced no touchdowns and fewer than 160 pass yards in each. Fitzpatrick is a mirror of the Bills - he is greatly productive against a bad defense but then is mediocre when the opponent sports a decent defense. Notable too is that he has never thrown more than 208 yards in any road game this year.

Scott Chandler is no longer a fantasy factor with no scores or ever more than 40 yards in the last three weeks. He's been decent when at home against soft defenses and really no other time.

The passing offense mainly relies on Stevie Johnson who has four touchdowns on the season but never more than 82 yards in any game and in his last two road trips versus decent defenses he was unable to score. No other wideout here has any reliable fantasy value. Donald Jones shows up only at home against bad defenses.

The offense runs through both backs who have been used as much as receivers lately as they were runners. Both backs have marginal rushing stats in games because they share carries and neither gets more than about a dozen carries in most games. C.J. Spiller is the more productive runner with four rushing scores on the year and 70+ yards in each of the last two games. Jackson has been solid with 50 or so rushing yards and he scored in Arizona as did Spiller. Jackson has been more used as a receiver lately with 13 catches for 79 yards and a score over the last two weeks. Spiller is still good there as well with ten receptions for 54 yards in those two games.

The last time the Bills went on the road to face a good defense they were destroyed in San Francisco. They catch a Texans team fresh off their bye and can only hope for enough garbage time to get in meaningful scores and yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 18 4 22 18 31 14
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 9 3 15 21 3 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Allen, BUF LAC 30000016012 ***
It is officially the start of the Allen era. Keep him at bay in all formats in Week 2.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF LAC 5002100000 ***
Shady shone brightly in the Week 11 trip to LA last year, going for 114 yards and a TD on only 13 carries, racking up another score on his lone reception. The Bolts held KC backs to 81 yards on 20 totes but gave up 44 aerial yards and a TD in Week 1. Last year, LA was on the low-end of favorable opponents.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kelvin Benjamin, BUF LAC 004400000 ***
Despite what Tyreek Hill did to the Chargers last week, this defense shouldn't have any trouble clamping down on the lumbering Benjamin. He is merely a deep-league flier as a flex play in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Foster, BUF LAC 003400000 ***
Kerley was a surprise cut on Saturday and Foster steps up into his place after impressing this summer. That's still outside of fantasy starts but at least the Bills are trying to find a better answer.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, BUF LAC 003200000 ***
Yikes. Clay was blanked on his two targets last weekend. Nathan Peterman is now back on the bench, and Josh Allen enters the offense. He cannot be much worse, and young QBs who aren't totally inept tend to rely on TEs. LA held Clay to 5.7 PPR points in Week 11 last year and carried over their dominance of the position into 2018.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Hauschka, BUF LAC 1111 ***
Only one of the two field goals hit its mark in Week 1 vs. the Chargers, but all three XPAs were true for an average six fantasy points against. Field goals may be all Buffalo has in the toolbox.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI -----
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 280,1
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU @TEN 40000025021 ***
Tennessee gave up 230 yards and a pair of scores to Miami last week, picking off two balls along the way. Watson didn't jump out to a hot start like gamers had hoped for last week, but this divisional contest could get him on the right track. Watson's biggest game of 2017 came against the Titans (38.6 fantasy points). Even two-thirds of that would be a fine day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, HOU @TEN 9002200000 ***
Volume is nice ... that is about where it ends, though. Miller's best game -- and by a good margin -- in 2017 came against the Titans in Week 4. He ran for 75 and a TD, adding 56 receptions and another score on his four grabs. The Titans held Miami to 23 carries for 109 yards and no scores in Week 1 (3-18-0 receptions).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @TEN 0081001000 ***
Nuk posted a 10-catch, 107-yard, 2-TD game with Deshaun Watson in the Week 4 massacre of the Titans (57-14) last year. Without Watson, he was good for 8-80-0 on 14 targets in Week 13 at Tennessee.

Update: Hopkins was limited all week and is questionable for Week 2. Consider him a game-time decision.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Will Fuller V, HOU @TEN 004501000 *
Fuller missed last week and is up in the air once again. Hamstrings can be tricky, so precede with caution if he goes.

Update: Fuller is a game-time decision after being limited all week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Bruce Ellington, HOU @TEN 002200000 ***
Ellington's role depends on what happens with Will Fuller and Keke Coutee's injury situations. The veteran reserve could be a sneaky play in DFS or as a deep-league flier in Week 2. Safety-conscious owner will want to avoid him.

Update: Coutee is limited and questionable. The same can be said for Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins, making Ellington a slightly better play.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU @TEN 3322 ***
Tennessee gave up the most field goal tries and second-most fantasy points to the position in 2017. Fairbairn is a midrange option with upside.

Pregame Notes: The Texans come off their bye with likely their softest match-up of the year. After this will be four road games over five weeks before winding down the season with double wins over the Colts and against the Vikings. WIth a healthy lead over the rest of the division, at least the Texans will continue to play hard to ensure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

Matt Schaub still hasn't thrown a 300 yard game this year and may not with such a dominating rushing effort and a defense that keeps game scores lower. Unfortunately, his production varies greatly from game to game. He is not reliable for more than one passing score and lower 200's in passing yardage. Even less so in a home game against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league.

Arian Foster has been less prolific in yardage and only caught one pass in all but one game. But his rushing tends to produce 80+ yards and more important, he is a scoring machine that never fails to notch a touchdown this season. After seven games played, Foster scored nine rushing touchdowns and one as a receiver. Even when he had his one bad yardage game that totaled only 41 yards against the Packers he still scored twice. Ben Tate actually offered some fantasy value last year but not so for 2012. He has not turned in any real production since week two.

Andre Johnson is still good enough to merit a fantasy start every week but with only two touchdowns and never more than 86 yards since the season opener, he's just an average sort of wideout. Not the league leader of years past. What's worse is two games that produced under 25 yards. And yet that is still better than any other wideout for the Texans. Kevin Walter hangs on to the flanker spot but has no consistency or reliability.

Surprisingly, Owen Daniels has moved up to being the primary receiver for the Texans. He is the leading scorer with four receiving touchdowns and offers consistency in yardage with 50 to 70 yards in most games. Johnson still receives more targets, Daniels just catches almost all of his and scores more.

This could be fun. The best rushing offense at home facing the worst defense. You can only dream of these sort of match-ups.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 24 1 29 3 5 2
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 30 32 27 15 19 22

INSERT

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

a d v e r t i s e m e n t